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The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19. 商业周期预期对德国学徒市场的影响:新冠肺炎影响的估计
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-09-18 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-020-00094-9
Samuel Muehlemann, Harald Pfeifer, Bernhard H Wittek

A firm's expectation about the future business cycle is an important determinant of the decision to train apprentices, especially as German firms typically offer apprenticeships to either fill future skilled worker positions, or as a substitute for other types of labor. The current coronavirus crisis will have a strong and negative impact on the German economy, according to the current business cycle expectations of German firms. To the extent that the training decisions of firms depend on these perceptions, we expect a downward shift in firm demand for apprentices and consequently also a decrease in the equilibrium number of apprenticeship contracts. To assess the impact of changes in business cycle expectations, we analyze German data on the apprenticeship market at the state-level and at the occupation-level within states from 2007 to 2019. We apply first-differences regressions to account for unobserved heterogeneity across states and occupations, allowing us to identify the association between changes in two popular measures of business cycle expectations (the ifo Business Climate Index and the ifo Employment Barometer) and subsequent changes in the demand for apprentices, the number of new apprenticeship contracts, unfilled vacancies and unsuccessful applicants. We find that the German apprenticeship market prior to the current crisis can be characterized by excess demand for apprentices (although there are matching problems in some states, with both a high share of unfilled vacancies and a high share of unsuccessful applicants). Taking into account the most recent data on business cycle expectations up to June 2020, we estimate that the coronavirus-related decrease in firms' expectations about the business cycle can be associated with a predicted 8% decrease in firm demand for apprentices and a 6% decrease in the number of new apprenticeship positions in Germany compared to 2019 (- 30,000 apprenticeship contracts; 95% confidence interval: ± 8000).

企业对未来商业周期的预期是其培训学徒的重要决定因素,尤其是德国企业通常提供学徒来填补未来技术工人的职位,或者作为其他类型劳动力的替代品。根据德国企业当前的商业周期预期,当前的冠状病毒危机将对德国经济产生强烈的负面影响。在某种程度上,企业的培训决策取决于这些认知,我们预计企业对学徒的需求会下降,因此学徒合同的均衡数量也会减少。为了评估商业周期预期变化的影响,我们分析了2007年至2019年德国各州学徒市场和各州职业水平的数据。我们应用首差回归来解释各州和职业之间未观察到的异质性,使我们能够确定两种常用的商业周期预期指标(ifo商业景气指数和ifo就业晴雨表)的变化与学徒需求、新学徒合同数量、未填补的空缺和不成功的申请人之间的关联。我们发现,在当前危机之前,德国学徒市场的特点是对学徒的需求过剩(尽管在一些州存在匹配问题,空缺空缺的比例很高,不成功申请者的比例也很高)。考虑到截至2020年6月的最新商业周期预期数据,我们估计,与2019年相比,与冠状病毒相关的企业对商业周期预期的下降可能与企业对学徒的需求预计下降8%和德国新学徒职位数量减少6%有关(- 3万份学徒合同;95%置信区间:±8000)。
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引用次数: 12
The influence of informal learning opportunities on adolescents’ financial literacy 非正式学习机会对青少年金融知识的影响
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0086-y
Michelle Rudeloff
In today’s service society, adolescents come into contact with money and financial products and services earlier and earlier. Despite the importance of the topic in the adolescents’ lives, there is insufficient evidence on the learning opportunities adolescents use outside of school and education to obtain information on financial issues and how these affect their financial competence. This paper investigates how different informal learning opportunities influence grade 10-students’ financial literacy. Data are available for N = 530 students in general education. The analyses are based on a structural equation model in which financial literacy is represented as a latent variable with the sub-dimensions of money/payments, savings, loans, insurance, and monetary policy. Young people use different learning opportunities depending on the sub-dimension. Overall, parent-student discussions on finance are the most important informal source of learning. Discussions with siblings as well as consulting sessions with banks and media learning opportunities are also significantly related to financial literacy. Furthermore, personal characteristics, such as socio-economic background and economic interest, are also associated with financial literacy. The findings provide important implications for the promotion of financial literacy in different formal and informal learning situations. The results can be used, among other things, as a basis for developing targeted strategies to promote financial literacy in both the extracurricular sector and the school context.
在当今的服务型社会中,青少年越来越早地接触到金钱以及金融产品和服务。尽管这一话题在青少年的生活中非常重要,但关于青少年在学校和教育之外利用哪些学习机会来获取有关金融问题的信息,以及这些机会如何影响他们的金融能力,却没有足够的证据。本文研究了不同的非正式学习机会如何影响 10 年级学生的金融素养。数据来自 N = 530 名接受普通教育的学生。分析基于一个结构方程模型,在该模型中,金融素养被视为一个潜变量,包含货币/支付、储蓄、贷款、保险和货币政策等子维度。根据子维度的不同,年轻人会利用不同的学习机会。总体而言,父母与学生之间关于理财的讨论是最重要的非正式学习来源。与兄弟姐妹的讨论以及与银行的咨询会议和媒体学习机会也与金融素养密切相关。此外,社会经济背景和经济兴趣等个人特征也与金融素养有关。研究结果对在不同的正规和非正规学习环境中促进金融知识普及具有重要意义。除其他外,研究结果还可作为制定有针对性的战略的依据,以促进课外部门和学校的金融知识普及。
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引用次数: 0
Developing financial competence about mortgage loans by informal learning using banks’ online calculators 利用银行在线计算器进行非正式学习,提高按揭贷款的理财能力
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-09-18 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0085-z
B. Fürstenau, M. Hommel
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引用次数: 8
Associations between vocational students’ perceptions of goal structures, mastery goals, and self-efficacy in five subjects—practical relevance as a potential mediator 职业院校学生对五个科目的目标结构、掌握目标和自我效能感之间的关系--实践相关性是潜在的中介因素
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-06-04 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0084-0
Lisa Bardach, Vera Popper, Elke Hochfellner, Marko Lüftenegger
Goal structures represent classroom characteristics that are supportive of students’ motivation. However, goal structures and their relations with students’ motivation have not yet been investigated in the context of vocational education. The present study aims at closing this gap. We investigated the relation between mastery goal structures and the two motivational outcomes mastery goals and self-efficacy in a sample of 1434 Austrian vocational students (64.3% female) in five subjects (accounting, business administration, English, German, and mathematics). Furthermore, we tested whether the relation between mastery goals and these two motivational outcomes is (partially) mediated by students’ perceptions of the practical relevance of instruction in these subjects. Results from multilevel models revealed that goal structures were positively related to mastery goals at the individual student level for all subjects, and for English at the classroom level as well. At both levels, the indirect effect of mastery goal structures on mastery goals mediated by practical relevance was statistically significant for several subjects. In addition, mastery goal structures were positively related to self-efficacy at the individual student level in accounting and at the classroom level in mathematics. Practical relevance mediated the effect of mastery goal structures on self-efficacy in mathematics at the classroom level. Implications of the results for research in vocational education and educational practice are discussed.
目标结构代表了有助于激发学生学习动机的课堂特征。然而,目标结构及其与学生学习动机的关系尚未在职业教育中得到研究。本研究旨在填补这一空白。我们以奥地利 1434 名职业学生(64.3% 为女生)为样本,调查了掌握目标结构与掌握目标和自我效能这两种动机结果之间的关系,涉及五个科目(会计、工商管理、英语、德语和数学)。此外,我们还检验了掌握目标与这两种动机结果之间的关系是否(部分)受学生对这些科目教学的实际意义的看法的影响。多层次模型的结果显示,在所有学科中,目标结构在学生个体层面上与掌握目标呈正相关,而在英语课堂层面上,目标结构与掌握目标也呈正相关。在这两个层面上,掌握目标结构对掌握目标的间接影响(以实际相关性为中介)在多个学科上都具有显著的统计学意义。此外,在会计学科的学生个体层面和数学学科的课堂层面,掌握目标结构与自我效能呈正相关。在数学课堂层面上,实际相关性对掌握目标结构对自我效能感的影响起着中介作用。本文讨论了研究结果对职业教育研究和教育实践的启示。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative analysis of the OECD/INFE financial knowledge assessment using the Rasch model 使用Rasch模型的OECD/INFE金融知识评估比较分析
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0083-1
Bernadene de Clercq
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引用次数: 6
Attractiveness is in the eye of the beholder 情人眼里出西施
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-03-21 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0082-2
G. Russo, M. Serafini, Antonio Ranieri
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引用次数: 3
The role of different types of skills and signals in youth labor market integration 不同类型的技能和信号在青年劳动力市场整合中的作用
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-03-18 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0081-3
A. Muja, L. Blommaert, Maurice Gesthuizen, M. Wolbers
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引用次数: 11
Considerations for career intervention services in global youth workforce development: consensus across policy, research, and practice 全球青年劳动力发展中的职业干预服务考虑因素:政策、研究和实践的共识
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-02-23 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0080-4
Sylvia Nassar, Aisha Al-Qimlass, Nurten Karacan-Ozdemir, Lynn Z. Tovar
As yet, despite ongoing gaps in educational and career achievement, earning potential, and other psychosocial risks that perpetuate marginalization among certain populations globally, elements of effective career education and interventions have yet to be agreed upon. Thus, we sought consensus among experts across the domains of policy, research, and practice. We detail the process and results of a recent Delphi study conducted with global youth career and workforce development experts across policy, research, and practice domains who were surveyed about their opinions regarding concepts such as ecological perspectives, needs assessment, trainer preparation, participant curriculum, curriculum delivery, and program evaluation—the six emergent areas of a recent comprehensive synthesis of the literature across these domains (Nassar and Al-Qimlass, in Career builders: key components for effective global youth career and workforce development. RTI Press, Research Triangle Park, 2017a). Our Delphi study yielded 199 consensus statements, subsequently organized into 28 themes, or considerations, for effective global workforce development initiatives. In conclusion, we provide implications, including implementation strategies for key stakeholder groups.
尽管在教育和职业成就、收入潜力以及其他社会心理风险方面一直存在差距,导致全球某些人群长期处于边缘化状态,但有效的职业教育和干预措施的要素尚未达成一致。因此,我们寻求政策、研究和实践领域的专家达成共识。我们详细介绍了最近与全球青少年职业和劳动力发展领域的政策、研究和实践专家进行的德尔菲研究的过程和结果,这些专家接受了调查,了解了他们对生态视角、需求评估、培训师准备、参与者课程、课程实施和项目评估等概念的看法--这些概念是最近对这些领域的文献进行综合归纳的六个新兴领域(Nassar 和 Al-Qimlass,《职业建设者:有效的全球青少年职业和劳动力发展的关键要素》,RTI Press,Research Triangle Park)。RTI Press,Research Triangle Park,2017a)。我们的德尔菲研究得出了 199 项共识声明,随后归纳为 28 个主题,或有效全球劳动力发展计划的考虑因素。最后,我们提出了一些影响,包括针对主要利益相关群体的实施策略。
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引用次数: 0
Economic change and continuous vocational training in the work history: a longitudinal multilevel analysis of the employees’ participation in further training and the effects on their occupational careers in Germany, 1970–2008 经济变化与工作经历中的持续职业培训:1970-2008 年德国雇员参加进修培训及其对职业生涯影响的纵向多层次分析
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-02-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0079-x
Rolf Becker
Human capital theory and the life-course perspective are used to investigate how economic modernisation, as well as developments in the labour market after the West German “economic miracle”, impacted employers’ supply of further education and training on the job, and employees’ increased participation in these arrangements. Additionally—controlling for the aforementioned structural change and economic cycles—it is analysed whether participation in further training minimises employees’ risk of dismissal and heightens their commitment to a company. The hypotheses are tested using longitudinal data and time series—allowing the analysis of employees’ participation in further education and training on the job, and the careers of West Germans born between 1956 and 1978 for the 1972–2008 periods—by procedures of event history analysis and episode splitting in a dynamic multi-level design. Systematic period and cohort effects of structural change in the economy and labour markets on companies’ supply of, and employees’ participation in, continued vocational training on the job have been revealed. Participation in further training reduces employees’ risk of dismissal, as well as their mobility between companies. Participants’ adaptation to structural change via job-related further training is correlated with increased employment security, professional flexibility, and commitment to the employer.
本文运用人力资本理论和生命历程视角,研究了经济现代化以及西德 "经济奇迹 "之后劳动力市场的发展如何影响雇主提供的在职进修和培训,以及雇员对这些安排的更多参与。此外,在控制上述结构变化和经济周期的情况下,我们还分析了参加进修培训是否能最大限度地降低员工被解雇的风险,以及是否能提高他们对公司的忠诚度。假设利用纵向数据和时间序列进行了检验,通过动态多层次设计中的事件史分析和情节分割程序,分析了 1972-2008 年间员工参加在职进修和培训的情况,以及 1956-1978 年间出生的西德人的职业生涯。研究揭示了经济和劳动力市场的结构性变化对企业提供和员工参加在职继续职业培训的系统性时期和队列效应。参加继续培训降低了员工被解雇的风险,也降低了他们在公司之间的流动性。参与者通过与工作相关的进修培训来适应结构性变化,这与就业保障、职业灵活性和对雇主的承诺的增加有关。
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引用次数: 0
Vocational training in India: determinants of participation and effect on wages 印度的职业培训:参与的决定因素和对工资的影响
IF 1.3 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-01-21 DOI: 10.1186/s40461-019-0078-y
Rishi Kumar, Shravanth Mandava, Venkata Sandeep Gopanapalli
BackgroundIndia is at the cusp of a population change and is currently undergoing the phase of ‘demographic dividend.’ This has thrown a challenge towards the policymakers to ensure that there are enough employment opportunities for the ever-increasing labour force. One of the areas where improvement is urgently required in India is skill development. This paper attempts to identify the factors, which affect an individual’s participation in vocational training using nationally representative National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data. Further, we investigate the impact of vocational training on the wages of an individual at overall and sectoral levels.MethodsFor addressing the first question of factors that are associated with participation in vocational training programmes, we will be applying logit and multi-nominal logit models. The explanatory variables will broadly be social and economic indicators of the individual as well as the individual’s household characteristics. The second issue of identifying the effect formal vocational training on wages will be analysed through a multiple regression model.ResultsWe found that being an urban dweller increases the odds of participating in formal vocational training. Further, being male increases the odds of receiving formal vocational training. We found that having formal training increases the wage by 4.7% in the overall economy as compared to a person without any training. The effect is highest in the primary sector, where the individuals with vocational training had a wage increase of 36.9%. Workers with formal vocational training in the secondary sector had an increase in wages by 17.6%.ConclusionsThe analysis done in the paper reveals that formal vocational training is associated with higher wages with the effect being the highest in the primary sector. Being male and urban dweller improved the odds of participating in formal vocational training. The model suggests that there exist good economic returns, which are associated with formal vocational training, and hence, it makes sense to invest resources in vocational training.
背景印度正处于人口变化的风口浪尖,目前正处于 "人口红利 "阶段。这给政策制定者带来了挑战,即如何确保为不断增加的劳动力提供足够的就业机会。印度急需改进的领域之一就是技能发展。本文试图利用具有全国代表性的国家抽样调查办公室(NSSO)数据,找出影响个人参与职业培训的因素。此外,我们还调查了职业培训在整体和部门层面上对个人工资的影响。方法为了解决第一个问题,即与参与职业培训计划相关的因素,我们将采用 logit 和多名义 logit 模型。解释变量主要是个人的社会和经济指标以及个人的家庭特征。第二个问题是确定正规职业培训对工资的影响,我们将通过多元回归模型进行分析。此外,男性会增加接受正规职业培训的几率。我们发现,与没有接受过任何培训的人相比,接受过正规培训的人在整体经济中的工资增加了 4.7%。在第一产业中,这种影响最大,受过职业培训的人的工资增加了 36.9%。本文所做的分析表明,正规职业培训与较高的工资水平相关,在第一产业的影响最大。男性和城市居民参加正规职业培训的几率更高。该模型表明,正规职业培训具有良好的经济回报,因此在职业培训方面投入资源是合理的。
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引用次数: 0
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Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training
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