Pub Date : 2020-10-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-88702020000200057
Carlos A. Medel
To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical events accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news or other supply disruptions, the evidence is rather episodic.
{"title":"Geopolitical tensions, opec news, and the oil price: A Granger causality analysis","authors":"Carlos A. Medel","doi":"10.4067/S0718-88702020000200057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702020000200057","url":null,"abstract":"To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical events accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news or other supply disruptions, the evidence is rather episodic.","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43883876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-12DOI: 10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.24
Fiorella Castro Aguirre
Esta investigacion presenta un analisis empirico de las decisiones de permanencia de los estudiantes universitarios en el contexto de la implementaci on de la reforma universitaria iniciada en el 2014 en Peru. Uno de los pilares de esta reforma es el otorgamiento de licencias institucionales, luego de la verificacion de hasta ocho condiciones basicas de calidad en la prestacion del servicio educativo que ofrecen las universidades. En este proceso en curso, existe una creciente preocupacion por las posibilidades de que los estudiantes puedan continuar con sus estudios universitarios frente a la denegacion de las licencias a universidades, programas y/o filiales. Utilizando informacion sobre el estado educativo, caracteristicas individuales de los estudiantes y de sus hogares, asi como caracteristicas de la oferta educativa (tipo de gestion de la universidad, el costo del servicio educativo y obtencion de la licencia institucional), se estima un modelo de eleccion discreta con datos de panel, cuyos resultados muestran evidencia sobre los factores que determinan la permanencia de los estudiantes universitarios. Entre los factores mas importantes se encuentran: (i) el desempeno de los estudiantes, (ii) la participacion en el mercado laboral, (iii) un proxy de la calidad universitaria (costo del servicio educativo) y (iv) el tipo de gestion de la universidad.
{"title":"Permanencia en educación universitaria en Perú","authors":"Fiorella Castro Aguirre","doi":"10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.24","url":null,"abstract":"Esta investigacion presenta un analisis empirico de las decisiones de permanencia de los estudiantes universitarios en el contexto de la implementaci on de la reforma universitaria iniciada en el 2014 en Peru. Uno de los pilares de esta reforma es el otorgamiento de licencias institucionales, luego de la verificacion de hasta ocho condiciones basicas de calidad en la prestacion del servicio educativo que ofrecen las universidades. En este proceso en curso, existe una creciente preocupacion por las posibilidades de que los estudiantes puedan continuar con sus estudios universitarios frente a la denegacion de las licencias a universidades, programas y/o filiales. Utilizando informacion sobre el estado educativo, caracteristicas individuales de los estudiantes y de sus hogares, asi como caracteristicas de la oferta educativa (tipo de gestion de la universidad, el costo del servicio educativo y obtencion de la licencia institucional), se estima un modelo de eleccion discreta con datos de panel, cuyos resultados muestran evidencia sobre los factores que determinan la permanencia de los estudiantes universitarios. Entre los factores mas importantes se encuentran: (i) el desempeno de los estudiantes, (ii) la participacion en el mercado laboral, (iii) un proxy de la calidad universitaria (costo del servicio educativo) y (iv) el tipo de gestion de la universidad.","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"552 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77493268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-15DOI: 10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.26
Silva Ancco, Gian Carlos
The research in discrete choice models with foundations in microeconomic principles has developed a framework for the detection of income effect for estimating demands or even welfare measurement with particular emphasis in transport sector. However, these theoretical researches have not been frequeltly used in the praxis of apparaisal projects. The aggregation of benefits across individuals leads to require sophisticated tools so as to avoid a mis-specification of incomes in models. This latter may potentially distort outcomes and unintentionally conduct to non-optimal decisions that turns critical in large investments. The present paper seeks to stand out the importance of considering the income effect in appraisal projects. For this purpose, on the basis of discrete choice theory, several models has been tested by using the multinomial logit models. The dataset collected comes from an urban transport survey Lima Metropolitan in 2004. The models have sought to detect the presence of income effect, thus by assuming an income tier. It has been found the individuals surveyed in the study can be classified in statistical terms into two representative income-groups. Then, by following the Jara-Diaz and Videla (1989), shows that the marginal utility of income decreases with income and these are statistically different when are calculated among groups.
{"title":"El rol de los ingresos en los modelos de elección discreta. Su importancia en los proyectos de evaluación","authors":"Silva Ancco, Gian Carlos","doi":"10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24265/raef.2020.v3n2.26","url":null,"abstract":"The research in discrete choice models with foundations in microeconomic principles has developed a framework for the detection of income effect for estimating demands or even welfare measurement with particular emphasis in transport sector. However, these theoretical researches have not been frequeltly used in the praxis of apparaisal projects. The aggregation of benefits across individuals leads to require sophisticated tools so as to avoid a mis-specification of incomes in models. This latter may potentially distort outcomes and unintentionally conduct to non-optimal decisions that turns critical in large investments. The present paper seeks to stand out the importance of considering the income effect in appraisal projects. For this purpose, on the basis of discrete choice theory, several models has been tested by using the multinomial logit models. The dataset collected comes from an urban transport survey Lima Metropolitan in 2004. The models have sought to detect the presence of income effect, thus by assuming an income tier. It has been found the individuals surveyed in the study can be classified in statistical terms into two representative income-groups. Then, by following the Jara-Diaz and Videla (1989), shows that the marginal utility of income decreases with income and these are statistically different when are calculated among groups.","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91341014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ANÁLISIS ECONÓMICO DEL DAÑO CAUSADO POR PRÁCTICAS COMERCIALES RESTRICTIVAS DE LA COMPETENCIA","authors":"Tatiana Díaz Melo","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74902128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"EL PAPEL DE LA ECONOMÍA Y LA ORGANIZACIÓN INDUSTRIAL EN EL DERECHO DE LA COMPETENCIA:","authors":"Miguel de Quinto Arredonda","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87298233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"HISTORIA DEL ANÁLISIS ECONÓMICO DENTRO DE LA POLÍTICA DE COMPETENCIA","authors":"J. Saavedra, Lukas Sanz Ramírez","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75578429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"PRESENTACIÓN","authors":"Emilio José Archila Peñalosa","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"125 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84921859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"LA ECONOMÍA COMO CIENCIA SOCIAL, SU MÉTODO, APLICACIONES Y SUS ALCANCES","authors":"C. Villarreal","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1rcf0x8.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90606040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.4067/s0718-88702023000100041
J. Becerra, Andrés Sagner
In this paper, we develop a daily-frequency measure of economic uncertainty for Chile employing information that was obtained from Twitter accounts using web scraping techniques and following closely the methodology proposed by Baker et al. (2016). Our proposed measures, called DEPU and DEPUC, aim to capture the level of generaldisagreement —a proxy for economic uncertainty— in topics such as the economy, economic policies, uncertainty about particular events, and the current economic situation in Chile. Both indices, available from 2012 onwards, show significant hikes that coincide with several local and international episodes that provoked extraordin ary levels of economic uncertainty in Chile, especially after the events around the civil protests in mid-October 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-March 2020. An empirical exercise reveals that the proposed measures are significant determinants of the nominal exchange rate dynamics, especially when the magnitude of this variable is high and a week after the shock occurs. When the exchange rate is low, on the contrary, the impact of uncertainty on this variable is quantitatively smaller for any forecasting horizon. These features, and others discussed in the paper, highlight the usefulness of the proposed metric as an additional indicator that policymakers can incorporate into their monitoring toolkit
{"title":"Twitter-based economic policy uncertainty index for Chile","authors":"J. Becerra, Andrés Sagner","doi":"10.4067/s0718-88702023000100041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-88702023000100041","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we develop a daily-frequency measure of economic uncertainty for Chile employing information that was obtained from Twitter accounts using web scraping techniques and following closely the methodology proposed by Baker et al. (2016). Our proposed measures, called DEPU and DEPUC, aim to capture the level of generaldisagreement —a proxy for economic uncertainty— in topics such as the economy, economic policies, uncertainty about particular events, and the current economic situation in Chile. Both indices, available from 2012 onwards, show significant hikes that coincide with several local and international episodes that provoked extraordin ary levels of economic uncertainty in Chile, especially after the events around the civil protests in mid-October 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-March 2020. An empirical exercise reveals that the proposed measures are significant determinants of the nominal exchange rate dynamics, especially when the magnitude of this variable is high and a week after the shock occurs. When the exchange rate is low, on the contrary, the impact of uncertainty on this variable is quantitatively smaller for any forecasting horizon. These features, and others discussed in the paper, highlight the usefulness of the proposed metric as an additional indicator that policymakers can incorporate into their monitoring toolkit","PeriodicalId":38640,"journal":{"name":"Revista de Analisis Economico","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44386826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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