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Methods for Inclusive Underwriting of Breast Cancer Risk with Machine Learning and Innovative Algorithms. 癌症风险的机器学习和创新算法包容性承保方法。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-1-36-48.1
Manuel Plisson, Antoine Moll, Valentine Sarrazin, Denis Charles, Thibault Antoine, Razvan Ionescu, Odile Koehren, Eric Raymond

Introduction: -Due to early detection and improved therapies, the prevalence of long-term breast cancer survivors is increasing. This has increased the need for more inclusive underwriting in individuals with a history of breast cancer. Herein, we developed a method using algorithm aiming facilitating the underwriting of multiple parameters in breast cancer survivors.

Methods: -Variables and data were extracted from the SEER database and analyzed using 4 different machine learning based algorithms (Logistic Regression, GA2M, Random Forest, and XGBoost) that were compared with Kaplan Meier survival estimates. The performances of these algorithms have been compared with multiple metrics (Log Loss, AUC, and SMR). In situ (non-invasive) and metastatic breast cancer were excluded from this analysis.

Results: -Parameters included the pathological subtype, pTNM staging (T: tumor size, N; number of nodes; M presence or absence of metastases), Scarff-Bloom-Richardson grading, the expression of estrogen and progesterone hormone receptors were selected to predict the individual outcome at any time point from diagnosis. While all models had identical performance in terms of statistical metrics (AUC, Log Loss, and SMR), the logistic regression was the one and only model that respects all business constraints and was intelligible for medical and underwriting users.

Conclusion: -This study provides insight to develop algorithms to set underwriter-friendly calculators for more accurate risk estimations that can be used to rationalize insurance pricing for breast cancer survivors. This study supports the development of a more inclusive underwriting based on models that can encompass the heterogeneity of several malignancies such as breast cancer.

简介:由于早期发现和改进的治疗方法,癌症长期幸存者的患病率正在增加。这增加了对有癌症病史的个人进行更具包容性承保的需求。在此,我们开发了一种使用算法的方法,旨在促进癌症幸存者的多个参数承保。方法:从SEER数据库中提取变量和数据,并使用4种不同的基于机器学习的算法(Logistic回归、GA2M、随机森林和XGBoost)进行分析,这些算法与Kaplan-Meier生存估计进行比较。将这些算法的性能与多种指标(对数损失、AUC和SMR)进行了比较。原位(非侵入性)和转移性癌症乳腺癌被排除在本分析之外。结果:-参数包括病理亚型、pTNM分期(T:肿瘤大小,N;淋巴结数量;M是否存在转移)、Scarff-Bloom-Richardson分级、雌激素和孕激素受体的表达,以预测诊断后任何时间点的个体结果。虽然所有模型在统计指标(AUC、对数损失和SMR)方面都具有相同的性能,但逻辑回归是唯一一个尊重所有业务约束的模型,并且对医疗和承保用户来说是可理解的。结论:本研究为开发算法提供了见解,以设置更准确的风险估计的保险商友好型计算器,可用于合理化癌症幸存者的保险定价。这项研究支持基于模型开发更具包容性的承保,该模型可以涵盖癌症等几种恶性肿瘤的异质性。
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引用次数: 0
A Farewell Message from the Retiring Editor-in-Chief. 即将退休的主编的告别致辞。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-2-139-142.1
Ross MacKenzie
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引用次数: 0
Breast Cancer: 20-Year Comparative Mortality and Survival Analysis by Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, Stage, Grade, Disease Duration, Selected ICD-O-3 Oncophenotypes, and Cohort Entry Time-Period. 乳腺癌:按年龄、性别、种族/族裔、分期、分级、病程、选定的 ICD-O-3 肿瘤分型和队列进入时间段进行的 20 年死亡率和生存率比较分析。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-2-80-122.1
Anthony F Milano

Breast cancer remains the most common non-cutaneous malignancy in women in both Europe and the United States and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. In this breast cancer mortality and survival study, a US retrospective population-based analysis of 656,501 microscopically confirmed breast cancer cases, 1975-2019, data is derived from the NCI Surveillance Epidemiology & End Results Program, SEER*Stat 8.4.0.1.

在欧洲和美国,乳腺癌仍然是女性最常见的非皮肤恶性肿瘤,也是癌症相关死亡的第二大原因。在这项乳腺癌死亡率和存活率研究中,对 1975-2019 年间 656,501 例经显微镜确诊的乳腺癌病例进行了基于美国人口的回顾性分析,数据来自 NCI 监测、流行病学和最终结果计划 SEER*Stat 8.4.0.1。
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引用次数: 0
Long Covid - Into the Third Year. 漫长的新冠肺炎-进入第三年。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-1-54-58.1
Timothy Meagher

As the COVID-19 pandemic reaches the end of its third year, and as COVID-related mortality in North America wanes, long Covid and its disabling symptoms are attracting more attention. Some individuals report symptoms lasting more than 2 years, and a subset report continuing disability. This article will provide an update on long Covid, with a particular focus on disease prevalence, disability, symptom clustering and risk factors. It will also discuss the longer-term outlook for individuals with long Covid.

随着新冠肺炎大流行进入第三个年头,随着北美与新冠肺炎相关的死亡率下降,长期新冠肺炎及其致残症状正吸引更多关注。一些人报告症状持续2年以上,还有一部分人报告持续残疾。这篇文章将提供关于长期新冠肺炎的最新消息,特别关注疾病流行率、残疾、症状聚集和风险因素。它还将讨论长期新冠肺炎患者的长期前景。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma - Nodal and Extranodal: 20-Year Comparative Mortality, Survival & Biologic Behavior Analysis by Age, Sex, Race, Stage, Cell Morphology/Histology, Cohort Entry Time-Period and Disease Duration: A Systematic Review of 384,651 Total NHL Cases Including 261,144 Nodal and 123,507 Extranodal Cases for Diagnosis Years 1975-2016: (SEER*Stat 8.3.6). 非霍奇金淋巴瘤-淋巴结和淋巴结外:按年龄、性别、种族、分期、细胞形态/组织学、队列进入时间段和疾病持续时间进行的20年比较死亡率、生存率和生物学行为分析:对384651例NHL病例的系统回顾,包括1975-2016年诊断的261144例淋巴结和123507例淋巴结外病例:(SEER*统计8.3.6)。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-1-1-35.1
Anthony F Milano

During the past 5 decades, there have been reports of increases in the incidence and mortality rates of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the United States and globally. The ability to address the epidemiologic diversity, prognosis and treatment of NHL depends on the use of an accurate and consistent classification system. Historically, uniform treatment for NHL has been hampered by the lack of a systematic taxonomy of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Before 1982, there were 6 competing classification schemes with contending terminologies for NHL: the Rappaport, Lukes-Collins, Kiel, World Health Organization, British, and Dorfman systems without consensus as to which system is most satisfactory regarding clinical relevance, scientific accuracy and reproducibility and presenting a difficult task for abstractors of incidence information. In 1982, the National Cancer Institute sponsored a workshop1 that developed a working formulation designed to: 1) provide clinicians with prognostic information for the various types of NHLs, and 2) provide a common language that might be used to compare clinical trials from various treatment centers around the world. Studies imply that prognosis is dependent on tumor stage and histology rather than the primary localization per se.2 This study utilizes the National Cancer Institute PDQ adaptation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) updated REAL (Revised European American Lymphoma) classification3 of lymphoproliferative diseases, and the SEER*Stat 8.3.6 database (released Aug 8, 2019) for diagnosis years 1975-2016. In this article, we make use of 40 years of data to examine patterns of incidence, survival and mortality, and selected cell bio-behavioral characteristics of NHL in the United States.

Objective: -To update trends in incidence and prevalence in the United States of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, examine, compare and contrast short and long-term patterns of survival and mortality, and consider the outcome impacts of anatomic location of NHL nodal and extranodal subdivisions, utilizing selected ICD-O-3 histologic oncotypes stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, stage, cell behavioral morphology and histologic typology, cohort entry time-period and disease duration, employing the statistical database of the National Cancer Institute SEER*Stat 8.3.6 program for diagnosis years 1975-2016.4 Methods.- A retrospective, population-based cohort study using nationally representative data from the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program to evaluate 384,651 NHL cases for diagnosis years 1975-2016 comparing multiple variables of age, sex, race, stage, cell behavioral morphology, cohort entry time-period, disease duration and histologic oncotype. Relative survival statistics were analyzed in two cohorts: 1975-1995 and 1996-2016. Survival statistics were derived from SEER*Stat Database: Incidence - SEER 9 Regs Research Data, November 2018 Submission (1975-20

在过去的50年里,有报道称美国和全球非霍奇金淋巴瘤(NHL)的发病率和死亡率有所上升。解决NHL的流行病学多样性、预后和治疗的能力取决于使用准确和一致的分类系统。从历史上看,由于缺乏非霍奇金淋巴瘤的系统分类,NHL的统一治疗一直受到阻碍。在1982年之前,NHL有6个相互竞争的分类方案,其术语相互竞争:Rappaport、Lukes Collins、Kiel、世界卫生组织、英国和Dorfman系统,但对于哪一个系统在临床相关性、科学准确性和再现性方面最令人满意,没有达成共识,这对发病率信息的抽象者来说是一项艰巨的任务。1982年,国家癌症研究所赞助了一个工作坊1,该工作坊开发了一种工作配方,旨在:1)为临床医生提供各种类型NHL的预后信息,2)提供一种通用语言,可用于比较世界各地不同治疗中心的临床试验。研究表明,预后取决于肿瘤分期和组织学,而不是主要定位本身。2本研究利用了国家癌症研究所PDQ对世界卫生组织(世界卫生组织)更新的REAL(修订的欧美淋巴瘤)分类3的淋巴增生性疾病,以及1975-2016年诊断年份的SEER*Stat 8.3.6数据库(2019年8月8日发布)。在这篇文章中,我们利用40年的数据来检查美国NHL的发病率、生存率和死亡率模式,以及选定的细胞生物行为特征。目的:-更新美国非霍奇金淋巴瘤的发病率和流行趋势,检查、比较和对比短期和长期生存率和死亡模式,并考虑NHL结外和结外分支的解剖位置对结果的影响,利用按年龄、性别、种族/民族、分期、细胞行为形态和组织学类型、队列进入时间段和疾病持续时间分层的选定ICD-O-3组织学肿瘤类型,采用美国国家癌症研究所SEER*Stat 8.3.6诊断年份的统计数据库1975-2016.4方法一项基于人群的回顾性队列研究,使用美国国家癌症研究所(NCI)监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)计划的全国代表性数据,评估1975-2016年诊断的384651例NHL病例,比较年龄、性别、种族、阶段、细胞行为形态、队列进入时间段、疾病持续时间和组织肿瘤类型等多个变量。分析了1975-1995年和1996-2016年两个队列的相对生存率统计数据。生存统计数据来源于SEER*统计数据库:发病率-SEER 9 Regs研究数据,2018年11月提交(1975-2016),2019年4月发布,基于2018年11月份提交。结果:总结了1975-2016年国家癌症研究所SEER诊断项目(SEER Stat 8.3.6)中记录的2个进入时间段内成年结(N)和结外(EN)NHL的发病率、相对频率分布、存活率和死亡率(按年龄、性别、阶段和细胞行为形态)。随着时间的推移,趋势发生了变化,研究结果与预后相关,包括短期和长期观察到的(实际)、预期和相对生存率、观察到的中位和相对生存期、死亡率和每1000人的超额死亡率。结论:-根据年龄、性别、种族、阶段、细胞行为形态、队列进入时间段、相对频率和百分比分布,对SEER发病率、患病率、生存率和死亡率的趋势进行了研究,以提供1975-2016年期间结外(N)和结外(EN)非霍奇金淋巴瘤的当前流行病学和医学精算风险评估框架。
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引用次数: 0
From Benign to Malignant: The Arrival of Pituitary Neuroendocrine Tumors (PitNETs). 从良性到恶性:垂体神经内分泌肿瘤 (PitNET) 的到来。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-2-154-156.1
Timothy Meagher

Pituitary adenomas were recently reclassified as "neuroendocrine tumors," and are now considered to be cancers. The evolution and justification for this change are described. Critical illness policies, which currently provide coverage of pituitary adenomas under the "Benign Brain Tumor" provision must now be modified to reflect this new taxonomy. This change also prompts questions about the use of the words 'benign' and 'tumor' in critical illness policies.

垂体腺瘤最近被重新归类为 "神经内分泌肿瘤",现在被认为是癌症。本文介绍了这一变化的演变过程和理由。目前在 "良性脑肿瘤 "条款下承保垂体腺瘤的重大疾病保单现在必须进行修改,以反映这一新的分类。这一变化也引发了关于重大疾病保险中 "良性 "和 "肿瘤 "这两个词的使用问题。
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引用次数: 0
JIM Reading List. JIM 阅读清单。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-2-157-163.1
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引用次数: 0
Tongue Carcinoma - 20-Year Comparative Survival and Mortality Analysis by Age, Sex, Race, Stage, Grade, Cohort Entry Time-Period and Disease Duration. 舌癌 - 按年龄、性别、种族、分期、分级、队列进入时间段和病程进行的 20 年生存率和死亡率比较分析。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-2-123-138.1
Anthony F Milano

Cancer of the tongue is an uncommon cancer site, with only 31,378 cases in the SEER 1975-2017 database, fewer than 1% of all reported cancers. This article updates trends in incidence, prevalence, short and long-term survival and mortality of tongue carcinoma.

舌癌是一种不常见的癌症,在 SEER 1975-2017 年数据库中仅有 31,378 例,不到所有报告癌症的 1%。本文更新了舌癌的发病率、流行率、短期和长期生存率及死亡率的趋势。
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引用次数: 0
JIM Reading List. JIM阅读列表。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-1-74-79.1
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence of Antibodies to COVID-19 Due to Infection or Vaccination in US Adults. 美国成年人感染或接种新冠肺炎抗体的流行率。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2023-07-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.17849/insm-50-1-49-53.1
Robert L Stout, Steven J Rigatti

Objective: -Determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in a population applying for life insurance.

Setting: -This is a cross-sectional study of 2584 US life insurance applicants, to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies to COVID-19. This convenience sample was selected on two consecutive days April 25-26, 2022.

Results: -For COVID-19, 97.3% are seropositive, and 63.9% have antibodies to nucleocapsid protein, a marker of prior infection. An additional, 33.7% have been vaccinated with no serologic evidence of infection.

Methodology: -Serum and urine samples from a nationwide group of insurance applicants for routine risk assessment were collected. The examination of applicants typically occurs, in their homes, their place of employment, or a clinic. The paramedic exam occurs 7-14 days after the insurance application. Before the exam, an office assistant calls the applicant and inquires if they have been in contact with a person with SARS-CoV-2, been ill within the last 2 weeks, felt sick, or recently had a fever. If the applicant answers yes, the exam is rescheduled. Before sample collection, the applicant reads and signs a consent form to release medical information and testing. Next, the examiner records the applicant's blood pressure, height, and weight. Then, a blood and a urine sample are collected and sent with the consent form to our laboratory via Federal Express. On April 25-26, 2022, we tested 2584 convenience samples from adult insurance applicants for the presence of antibodies to nucleocapsid and spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2. As a standard practice, we reported the client-specified test profile results to our life insurance carriers. In contrast, the COVID-19 test results were only available to the authors. Patient and Public Involvement.-There was no patient involvement in study design, reporting of results, or journal publication selection. There was patient consent to publish de-identified study results. No public involvement occurred in the creation or completion of the study. The authors thank the participants in this study for approving the use of their blood samples to further society's understanding of the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic. Ethics Review.-Western Institutional Review Board reviewed the study design and determined it to be exempt under the Common Rule and applicable guidance. Therefore, it is exempt under 45 CFR § 46.104(d)(4) from using de-identified study samples for epidemiologic investigation, WIRB Work Order #1-1324846-1. In addition, all test subjects had signed a consent allowing research of their blood and urine samples with the removal of personally identifiable information.

Results: -The combined seroprevalence for antibodies to nucleocapsid, a marker of prior infection, and antibodies to spike protein, an indicator of either previous infection or vaccination, was 97.3%.

目的:确定申请人寿保险人群中严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染和疫苗接种的血清流行率。背景:-这是一项针对2584名美国人寿保险申请人的横断面研究,旨在确定新冠肺炎抗体的血清流行率。该方便样本于2022年4月25日至26日连续两天选择。结果:-对于新冠肺炎,97.3%的人血清阳性,63.9%的人具有核衣壳蛋白抗体,核衣壳蛋白质是既往感染的标志物。另外,33.7%的人接种了疫苗,但没有感染的血清学证据。方法:从全国范围内的一组保险申请人中收集血清和尿液样本,用于常规风险评估。对申请人的检查通常在他们的家中、工作地点或诊所进行。护理人员检查在保险申请后7-14天进行。考试前,一名办公室助理打电话给申请人,询问他们是否与严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型患者有过接触,是否在过去两周内生病,是否感到不适,或最近发烧。如果申请人回答是,考试将重新安排。在采集样本之前,申请人阅读并签署同意书,以发布医疗信息和检测。接下来,审查员记录申请人的血压、身高和体重。然后,采集血液和尿液样本,并通过联邦快递将同意书发送到我们的实验室。2022年4月25日至26日,我们测试了来自成人保险申请人的2584份便利样本,以确定是否存在严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型核衣壳和刺突蛋白抗体。作为标准做法,我们向我们的人寿保险公司报告客户指定的测试档案结果。相比之下,新冠肺炎检测结果仅提供给作者。患者和公众参与-没有患者参与研究设计、结果报告或期刊出版物选择。患者同意公布未鉴定的研究结果。研究的创建或完成过程中未发生任何公众参与。作者感谢这项研究的参与者批准使用他们的血液样本,以进一步加深社会对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒-19大流行的理解。道德审查-西方机构审查委员会审查了该研究设计,并根据共同规则和适用指南将其确定为豁免。因此,根据《美国联邦法规》第45卷第46.104(d)(4)条,它可以免于使用未鉴定的研究样本进行流行病学调查,WIRB工作指令#1-12324846-1。此外,所有受试者都签署了一份同意书,允许对他们的血液和尿液样本进行研究,并删除个人身份信息。结果:-既往感染的标志物核衣壳抗体和既往感染或疫苗接种的指标刺突蛋白抗体的联合血清流行率为97.3%。年轻组和老年组的感染率较高,接种疫苗和获得的自然免疫力存在非统计差异。对于16-84岁年龄组,美国新冠肺炎的总估计血清流行率为2.49亿例。结论:-由于先前感染或接种疫苗,美国人群对新冠肺炎的当前变种具有广泛的免疫抵抗力。新变种和无声疾病的传染性,独立于先前的感染或疫苗接种,是临床严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型病例零星增加的驱动力。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of insurance medicine (New York, N.Y.)
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