Pub Date : 2021-12-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500067
Hazwan Haini, Zoë Anastasiou
Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are instrumental in enabling the economic empowerment of women. We examine the efficiency and performance of 84 Indian MFIs from 2016 to 2018 using a two-stage double bootstrap approach. Our results show that MFIs with increased outreach and actively target female borrowers achieve higher efficiency. Furthermore, we find larger MFIs and higher leverage intensity to be positively associated with efficiency. Government policies should be encouraged to support current MFIs to grow larger, actively target female borrowers and increase outreach to the poor to support India’s financial inclusion agenda and facilitate the economic empowerment of women whist revitalizing less efficient MFIs.
{"title":"THE DETERMINANTS OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS EFFICIENCY: THE ROLE OF WOMEN BORROWERS","authors":"Hazwan Haini, Zoë Anastasiou","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500067","url":null,"abstract":"Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are instrumental in enabling the economic empowerment of women. We examine the efficiency and performance of 84 Indian MFIs from 2016 to 2018 using a two-stage double bootstrap approach. Our results show that MFIs with increased outreach and actively target female borrowers achieve higher efficiency. Furthermore, we find larger MFIs and higher leverage intensity to be positively associated with efficiency. Government policies should be encouraged to support current MFIs to grow larger, actively target female borrowers and increase outreach to the poor to support India’s financial inclusion agenda and facilitate the economic empowerment of women whist revitalizing less efficient MFIs.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85055930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500092
Tsue Ing Yap, Ameera Dayana Borhan
Digitalization has led to fundamental changes in the way people behave and live, and the way organizations, societies and nations operate. Although digitalization has brought about enormous benefits in general, it has also made the work of policymakers ever more challenging. A key responsibility of policymakers is consumer protection and this task is made ever more complicated with issues of data privacy and data ownership since many institutions and companies are now able to gather granular consumer data over transactions and the Internet of Things (IoT). For effective policy-making, policymakers need the right data and information. This is no longer straightforward with issues of valuation and measurement — how does one measure digitalization and its outputs, particularly with some new-age products and services being free and are readily available? Moreover, digitalization has brought with it wide-ranging implications for the labor market (such as with the rise of gig economy), education, tax laws, economic policies and financial stability, which force policymakers to continuously keep abreast on emerging technological trends and to ensure their policies are up-to-date. This paper attempts to analyze various literature studies and draw some insights on issues that policymakers need to be mindful of in the digital age. Some potential recommendations will be tabled for discussion and further research.
{"title":"IMPLICATIONS OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY ON POLICY-MAKING","authors":"Tsue Ing Yap, Ameera Dayana Borhan","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500092","url":null,"abstract":"Digitalization has led to fundamental changes in the way people behave and live, and the way organizations, societies and nations operate. Although digitalization has brought about enormous benefits in general, it has also made the work of policymakers ever more challenging. A key responsibility of policymakers is consumer protection and this task is made ever more complicated with issues of data privacy and data ownership since many institutions and companies are now able to gather granular consumer data over transactions and the Internet of Things (IoT). For effective policy-making, policymakers need the right data and information. This is no longer straightforward with issues of valuation and measurement — how does one measure digitalization and its outputs, particularly with some new-age products and services being free and are readily available? Moreover, digitalization has brought with it wide-ranging implications for the labor market (such as with the rise of gig economy), education, tax laws, economic policies and financial stability, which force policymakers to continuously keep abreast on emerging technological trends and to ensure their policies are up-to-date. This paper attempts to analyze various literature studies and draw some insights on issues that policymakers need to be mindful of in the digital age. Some potential recommendations will be tabled for discussion and further research.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80352522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500031
Arthur H. Goldsmith
The U.S. coronavirus recession began in late February of 2020 and was over in two months. The rapid recovery was due to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Stability Act (CARES Act), a large fiscal stimulus program initiated in late March 2020, that was accompanied by a strong expansionary monetary policy. This paper advances the notion that although the Corona-Recession was historically short it had two more permanent—longer-run—impacts that have largely been ignored. First, it accelerated two emerging trends—expansion of remote work, and more rapid adoption of digital technologies—and each will have a profound effect on work, society, and well-being in the U.S. Second, the pandemic-fuelled downturn fostered a new pathway—loneliness and social isolation—that exacerbated the emotional health concern that is part of all recessions, especially for younger persons. This occurrence is also likely to have an enduring footprint on economic and social life.
{"title":"THE CORONAVIRUS RECESSION IN THE U.S.: IS THERE A LONG-RUN FOOTPRINT?","authors":"Arthur H. Goldsmith","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500031","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. coronavirus recession began in late February of 2020 and was over in two months. The rapid recovery was due to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Stability Act (CARES Act), a large fiscal stimulus program initiated in late March 2020, that was accompanied by a strong expansionary monetary policy. This paper advances the notion that although the Corona-Recession was historically short it had two more permanent—longer-run—impacts that have largely been ignored. First, it accelerated two emerging trends—expansion of remote work, and more rapid adoption of digital technologies—and each will have a profound effect on work, society, and well-being in the U.S. Second, the pandemic-fuelled downturn fostered a new pathway—loneliness and social isolation—that exacerbated the emotional health concern that is part of all recessions, especially for younger persons. This occurrence is also likely to have an enduring footprint on economic and social life.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90917013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500043
O. Bacha
This paper examines the economic and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the responses that governments undertook. Though large and unprecedented in size, policy response has mostly been the same. Huge monetary stimulus, rate cuts, direct market intervention like bond purchases and debt moratoriums. Many of these were techniques used in the previous global financial of 2007–2009. Economies were already fragile and in a vulnerable state when the pandemic struck in late 2019. Continued use of the same policies did prevent a potential meltdown but has increased system vulnerability. The global debt burden is now much larger but governments may have fully expended all their monetary ammunition. Fiscal stimulus though much needed and more appropriate is seriously constrained by budget deficits and lack of fiscal space. Adding more debt to fund fiscal expansion is not really an option. Yet, the pandemic has made vulnerable, several parts of the economy that need to be salvaged. The SME sector which forms the spine of most developing economies is verging on collapse due to cash flow disruptions arising from lockdowns. The domestic banking sector which had funded these SMEs is exposed to a potential meltdown unless restructuring is done. The loan moratoriums widely adapted do not solve but merely postpone the problem. Governments, given their precarious fiscal position are in no position to provide the huge financial infusion needed to shore up the SMEs and banks. Islamic finance, which has risk-sharing alternatives can provide a way out of this conundrum. The paper proposes a shariah compliant risk sharing alternative to resolve this problem.
{"title":"THE PANDEMIC AND THE ECONOMIC CONUNDRUM: HOW ISLAMIC FINANCE CAN HELP","authors":"O. Bacha","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500043","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the economic and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the responses that governments undertook. Though large and unprecedented in size, policy response has mostly been the same. Huge monetary stimulus, rate cuts, direct market intervention like bond purchases and debt moratoriums. Many of these were techniques used in the previous global financial of 2007–2009. Economies were already fragile and in a vulnerable state when the pandemic struck in late 2019. Continued use of the same policies did prevent a potential meltdown but has increased system vulnerability. The global debt burden is now much larger but governments may have fully expended all their monetary ammunition. Fiscal stimulus though much needed and more appropriate is seriously constrained by budget deficits and lack of fiscal space. Adding more debt to fund fiscal expansion is not really an option. Yet, the pandemic has made vulnerable, several parts of the economy that need to be salvaged. The SME sector which forms the spine of most developing economies is verging on collapse due to cash flow disruptions arising from lockdowns. The domestic banking sector which had funded these SMEs is exposed to a potential meltdown unless restructuring is done. The loan moratoriums widely adapted do not solve but merely postpone the problem. Governments, given their precarious fiscal position are in no position to provide the huge financial infusion needed to shore up the SMEs and banks. Islamic finance, which has risk-sharing alternatives can provide a way out of this conundrum. The paper proposes a shariah compliant risk sharing alternative to resolve this problem.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84646625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s273756682150002x
W. Koh
Quantifying the immediate economic impact of COVID-19 is important to design proportionate relief and support policies. However, surveys of businesses and households are only typically available after considerable delay. We use near-real-time Google search data to examine the temporal and spatial impacts of COVID-19 on service sector activity in Australia. We find that the travel-related and consumer-facing sectors, such as aviation, tourism, hotels, restaurants, and retail trade, suffered steep contractions during the outbreak. By contrast, sectors that involve less physical and face-to-face interaction, such as info-communication technology (ICT) and delivery services, experienced significant gains. The magnitude of the impact is large. During the first COVID-19 wave between January and March, the demand for air travel, tourism, and hotel accommodation declined by 60–80%, while the demand for ICT and delivery services surged by more than 50%. In states and territories with low caseloads, the impact has also been severe due to government-enforced nationwide social distancing measures to contain disease spread. However, in states and territories that eased restrictions earlier and faster, there has been no significant reduction in demand for certain consumer-facing services. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness of high-frequency and near-real-time indicators in monitoring the rapidly unfolding effects of COVID-19.
{"title":"DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN AUSTRALIA: EVIDENCE FROM GOOGLE SEARCH DATA","authors":"W. Koh","doi":"10.1142/s273756682150002x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s273756682150002x","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying the immediate economic impact of COVID-19 is important to design proportionate relief and support policies. However, surveys of businesses and households are only typically available after considerable delay. We use near-real-time Google search data to examine the temporal and spatial impacts of COVID-19 on service sector activity in Australia. We find that the travel-related and consumer-facing sectors, such as aviation, tourism, hotels, restaurants, and retail trade, suffered steep contractions during the outbreak. By contrast, sectors that involve less physical and face-to-face interaction, such as info-communication technology (ICT) and delivery services, experienced significant gains. The magnitude of the impact is large. During the first COVID-19 wave between January and March, the demand for air travel, tourism, and hotel accommodation declined by 60–80%, while the demand for ICT and delivery services surged by more than 50%. In states and territories with low caseloads, the impact has also been severe due to government-enforced nationwide social distancing measures to contain disease spread. However, in states and territories that eased restrictions earlier and faster, there has been no significant reduction in demand for certain consumer-facing services. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness of high-frequency and near-real-time indicators in monitoring the rapidly unfolding effects of COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88656435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500018
S. Wong, G. En, D. Koh
A severe pneumonia of an unknown origin was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease, now known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has evolved into a public health emergency of international concern and wreaked worldwide havoc. An unprecedented and vigorous scientific response has allowed the accelerated discovery of the virus and reliable diagnostic methods; a rapid characterization of the disease and its impacts so as to better apply precautionary and public health measures; and resulted in remarkable progress in the development of mitigation strategies, including the development of vaccines at breakneck speed. This paper provides a health perspective of the virus and the pandemic it caused, based on available best evidence. Controversies surrounding the origin of the virus, its incubation period and infectivity, presentation and course of the disease, testing, as well as treatments and vaccinations are highlighted. The pandemic response, including infection control measures, and considerations on mental and economic health, alongside physical health is discussed. Moving forward, it is important that the global community is aware and better informed. More resources are needed to strengthen public health systems and healthcare infrastructure and delivery. This virus has the potential to persist and become endemic and seasonal in communities. Thus, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. wearing masks, frequent hand washing, etc.) might become the new normal in a post-pandemic world. The silver lining in the COVID-19 cloud may be the lessons it provides, so that we may be better prepared to respond to an inevitable next pandemic.
{"title":"COVID-19: A HEALTH PERSPECTIVE","authors":"S. Wong, G. En, D. Koh","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500018","url":null,"abstract":"A severe pneumonia of an unknown origin was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease, now known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has evolved into a public health emergency of international concern and wreaked worldwide havoc. An unprecedented and vigorous scientific response has allowed the accelerated discovery of the virus and reliable diagnostic methods; a rapid characterization of the disease and its impacts so as to better apply precautionary and public health measures; and resulted in remarkable progress in the development of mitigation strategies, including the development of vaccines at breakneck speed. This paper provides a health perspective of the virus and the pandemic it caused, based on available best evidence. Controversies surrounding the origin of the virus, its incubation period and infectivity, presentation and course of the disease, testing, as well as treatments and vaccinations are highlighted. The pandemic response, including infection control measures, and considerations on mental and economic health, alongside physical health is discussed. Moving forward, it is important that the global community is aware and better informed. More resources are needed to strengthen public health systems and healthcare infrastructure and delivery. This virus has the potential to persist and become endemic and seasonal in communities. Thus, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. wearing masks, frequent hand washing, etc.) might become the new normal in a post-pandemic world. The silver lining in the COVID-19 cloud may be the lessons it provides, so that we may be better prepared to respond to an inevitable next pandemic.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"82 1-2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77853839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821500055
A. Ahmed, I. Ali
Nearly a century after the Spanish flu of 1918, the world is confronting reverberations of the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus, labeled as COVID-19. As time passes, there has been a serious loss of life and well-being all across the world. According to the latest data issued by the Johns Hopkins University, more than 185 million people have been infected and slightly over 4 million people have already lost their lives. With some respite during the July–October 2020 period, the world economy is once again plunging down as a result of subsequent waves of the pandemic. According to the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world GDP has already suffered a loss in the range of US$8–12 trillion due to disruptions in economic activities. Even though Pakistan is among those countries where a relatively mild health-related impact was recorded during the first wave, the situation is fast deteriorating on the health and economic fronts with the severity of the latest wave. The objective of this study is to capture the impact of COVID-19 on the healthcare system and the economy of Pakistan. In particular, an attempt has been made to understand how this new normal situation has encouraged e-commerce (online) commercial and trade activities, on the one hand, and inculcated the concept of work from home among the corporate and public sector employees, on the other. The initial evidence confirms that despite a limited support from the formal banking and financial sector due to insufficient financial deepening, the commerce and trade sector has recorded a substantial growth in its online transactions. Moreover, in view of the contagion hazard, a large number of corporate entities and most of the education sector employees have been allowed to work from home thereby challenging the orthodoxy about shirking and mistrust.
{"title":"NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) SHOCK AND REVERBERATIONS IN PAKISTAN","authors":"A. Ahmed, I. Ali","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821500055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821500055","url":null,"abstract":"Nearly a century after the Spanish flu of 1918, the world is confronting reverberations of the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus, labeled as COVID-19. As time passes, there has been a serious loss of life and well-being all across the world. According to the latest data issued by the Johns Hopkins University, more than 185 million people have been infected and slightly over 4 million people have already lost their lives. With some respite during the July–October 2020 period, the world economy is once again plunging down as a result of subsequent waves of the pandemic. According to the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world GDP has already suffered a loss in the range of US$8–12 trillion due to disruptions in economic activities. Even though Pakistan is among those countries where a relatively mild health-related impact was recorded during the first wave, the situation is fast deteriorating on the health and economic fronts with the severity of the latest wave. The objective of this study is to capture the impact of COVID-19 on the healthcare system and the economy of Pakistan. In particular, an attempt has been made to understand how this new normal situation has encouraged e-commerce (online) commercial and trade activities, on the one hand, and inculcated the concept of work from home among the corporate and public sector employees, on the other. The initial evidence confirms that despite a limited support from the formal banking and financial sector due to insufficient financial deepening, the commerce and trade sector has recorded a substantial growth in its online transactions. Moreover, in view of the contagion hazard, a large number of corporate entities and most of the education sector employees have been allowed to work from home thereby challenging the orthodoxy about shirking and mistrust.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73364758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-01DOI: 10.1142/s2737566821010015
Ahmed M. Khalid
{"title":"MESSAGE FROM EDITOR-IN-CHIEF","authors":"Ahmed M. Khalid","doi":"10.1142/s2737566821010015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2737566821010015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"147 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72453960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-01DOI: 10.1515/jbvela-2020-0026
Patrick Gaughan, C. Baum
Abstract It seems to be increasingly common that some personal injury lost earnings projections are being extended by some experts to the “Normal Retirement Age” (NRA) – the age where workers can receive full, unreduced Social Security benefits. The selection of this age often implies a rejection of the worklife expectancy. However, statistics on claiming behavior of Social Security benefit recipients show that only a minority of recipients wait until the NRA to claim benefits. We use actual claiming behavior and the respective ages to show the use of the NRA for determining the ending date of lost earnings projections, instead of the well-researched worklife expectancy, results in exaggerated and speculative lost earnings damages.
{"title":"The Erroneous Selection of the Full Social Security Age as the Terminal Date for Lost Earnings Projections","authors":"Patrick Gaughan, C. Baum","doi":"10.1515/jbvela-2020-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbvela-2020-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It seems to be increasingly common that some personal injury lost earnings projections are being extended by some experts to the “Normal Retirement Age” (NRA) – the age where workers can receive full, unreduced Social Security benefits. The selection of this age often implies a rejection of the worklife expectancy. However, statistics on claiming behavior of Social Security benefit recipients show that only a minority of recipients wait until the NRA to claim benefits. We use actual claiming behavior and the respective ages to show the use of the NRA for determining the ending date of lost earnings projections, instead of the well-researched worklife expectancy, results in exaggerated and speculative lost earnings damages.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"16 1","pages":"61 - 75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46208214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-01DOI: 10.1515/jbvela-2020-0025
Dan Werner, Huy Dang
Abstract As a result of studies demonstrating a correlation between a patent’s value and its forward citation count, patent valuation using forward citations has been increasingly used by practitioners when a patent’s value has not been otherwise established. Although potential limitations of patent citation analysis have been discussed in the past, there is little empirical research demonstrating the sensitivity of estimated patent values to various assumptions embedded within the method. We first summarize an approach that has been used by prior practitioners to estimate the relative value of patents within a portfolio using forward citations, and then perform various analyses to investigate the sensitivity of the approach to certain assumptions. We find that some concerns of prior literature are well-founded, while others are less so. For example, we confirm that biased valuations will result from failure to properly control for patent age and technology. Our analysis also finds that truncation bias is a problem when analyzing recently issued patents, which confirms findings from existing literature. We estimate the rate at which such truncation bias dissipates as patents age and find that the bias for the median patent is reduced to below 10% within five years from the date of publication, although additional variation can remain on an individualized level. Regarding the issue of self-citations, we find that the valuation approach using forward citation analysis can be (but is not always) sensitive to the issue of self-citations, with a median difference of 16.8%. Finally, the valuation approach using forward citation analysis appears to be robust to assumptions underlying patent cohort construction.
{"title":"Patent Valuation Using Citations: A Review and Sensitivity Analysis","authors":"Dan Werner, Huy Dang","doi":"10.1515/jbvela-2020-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jbvela-2020-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As a result of studies demonstrating a correlation between a patent’s value and its forward citation count, patent valuation using forward citations has been increasingly used by practitioners when a patent’s value has not been otherwise established. Although potential limitations of patent citation analysis have been discussed in the past, there is little empirical research demonstrating the sensitivity of estimated patent values to various assumptions embedded within the method. We first summarize an approach that has been used by prior practitioners to estimate the relative value of patents within a portfolio using forward citations, and then perform various analyses to investigate the sensitivity of the approach to certain assumptions. We find that some concerns of prior literature are well-founded, while others are less so. For example, we confirm that biased valuations will result from failure to properly control for patent age and technology. Our analysis also finds that truncation bias is a problem when analyzing recently issued patents, which confirms findings from existing literature. We estimate the rate at which such truncation bias dissipates as patents age and find that the bias for the median patent is reduced to below 10% within five years from the date of publication, although additional variation can remain on an individualized level. Regarding the issue of self-citations, we find that the valuation approach using forward citation analysis can be (but is not always) sensitive to the issue of self-citations, with a median difference of 16.8%. Finally, the valuation approach using forward citation analysis appears to be robust to assumptions underlying patent cohort construction.","PeriodicalId":39482,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis","volume":"16 1","pages":"41 - 59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44123835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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