The technology of autonomous driving systems has the potential to bring significant benefits in terms of safety, mobility, and congestion, as well as land use and energy consumption. In this paper, the authors present both the promises and possible dangers of the large-scale implementation of autonomous vehicle technologies in the current road traffic networks. The effects of autonomous mobility technology are complex and require careful consideration. While there is great potential to transform transportation and offer significant improvements in many areas, there are also risks and challenges that need to be addressed to ensure safe, efficient, and equitable deployment of the technology.
{"title":"Exhaustive Investigation of the Promises and Perils of Autonomous Mobility Technology","authors":"Csanad Ferencz, M. Zöldy","doi":"10.3311/pptr.22573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.22573","url":null,"abstract":"The technology of autonomous driving systems has the potential to bring significant benefits in terms of safety, mobility, and congestion, as well as land use and energy consumption. In this paper, the authors present both the promises and possible dangers of the large-scale implementation of autonomous vehicle technologies in the current road traffic networks. The effects of autonomous mobility technology are complex and require careful consideration. While there is great potential to transform transportation and offer significant improvements in many areas, there are also risks and challenges that need to be addressed to ensure safe, efficient, and equitable deployment of the technology.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"32 9-10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139252925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Milan Škorupa, Zdenka Bulková, Jozef Gašparík, M. Kendra
Transport, as an object of research and design, is directly influenced by other functional components of the territory, it is caused by them, but at the same time it determines them in terms of limitations and development. A comprehensive approach to the design of transport systems involves a wide range of analytical and synthetic activities. Transport and territory are interrelated, while transport is one of the main factors defining the functionality of territorial structures. The development of transport systems brings greater availability of work, services, and leisure activities. The transport solution in the territory must be directed towards the adequate satisfaction of the transport needs, which are characterized by the intensity of the transport relations in the territory, depending on the time and quality of the relocation. The article presents a methodology for the design of regional public passenger transport lines, in accordance with the principles of sustainable mobility, supporting the competitiveness of public passenger transport and the efficient use of resources. The proposed methodology presupposes an already completed and processed analytical phase of the transport planning process and includes the impact of public passenger transport on the external environment. The methodology is applicable under the conditions of designing a completely new transport service system, as well as in the process of reorganizing existing transport systems, including rail and bus transport.
{"title":"Methodology for Designing a System of Public Passenger Transport in a Functional Region","authors":"Milan Škorupa, Zdenka Bulková, Jozef Gašparík, M. Kendra","doi":"10.3311/pptr.23159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.23159","url":null,"abstract":"Transport, as an object of research and design, is directly influenced by other functional components of the territory, it is caused by them, but at the same time it determines them in terms of limitations and development. A comprehensive approach to the design of transport systems involves a wide range of analytical and synthetic activities. Transport and territory are interrelated, while transport is one of the main factors defining the functionality of territorial structures. The development of transport systems brings greater availability of work, services, and leisure activities. The transport solution in the territory must be directed towards the adequate satisfaction of the transport needs, which are characterized by the intensity of the transport relations in the territory, depending on the time and quality of the relocation. The article presents a methodology for the design of regional public passenger transport lines, in accordance with the principles of sustainable mobility, supporting the competitiveness of public passenger transport and the efficient use of resources. The proposed methodology presupposes an already completed and processed analytical phase of the transport planning process and includes the impact of public passenger transport on the external environment. The methodology is applicable under the conditions of designing a completely new transport service system, as well as in the process of reorganizing existing transport systems, including rail and bus transport.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"14 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139270338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Sakhno, Igor Murovanyi, Galina Filipova, Victor Poliakov, Valerii Dembitskiy
One of the main problems of modern big city is the global crisis of normal urban environment operation as a result of structural growing of automobilization level, oversaturation of road-street network by the transport streams. Buses of the especially large size class occupy, at the least, 20% in the structure of a modern bus park. The buses of especially large size classes, with the aim of necessary maneuverability, as a rule are made articulated.One of the ways of improving the maneuverability of articulated buses is the usage of guided towed sections. Solving the mentioned problem usually needs the mathematic models for predicting the vehicle behavior.The aim of introducing the trailer direction is to increase the overall traffic lane of an articulated bus that ensures a necessary maneuverability. The aim is gained by a choice of a rational transmitting ratio of trailer axle gear and necessary value of braking moment on one of its wheels.The solving of the problem concerning the stability of an articulated bus with a guided trailer axle was made by the way of analyzing the linear approaching of stationary vehicle movement.An influence of the construction parameters of the bus and the trailer, a transmitting ratio of control gear and a value of braking moment on the parameters of bus maneuverability were analyzed. It was proved that for an articulated bus, the normal maneuverability parameters can be ensured at the trailer direction by a way of braking of one of the wheels.
{"title":"Maneuverability and Movement Stability of Buses of the Especially Large Size Class","authors":"V. Sakhno, Igor Murovanyi, Galina Filipova, Victor Poliakov, Valerii Dembitskiy","doi":"10.3311/pptr.21856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.21856","url":null,"abstract":"One of the main problems of modern big city is the global crisis of normal urban environment operation as a result of structural growing of automobilization level, oversaturation of road-street network by the transport streams. Buses of the especially large size class occupy, at the least, 20% in the structure of a modern bus park. The buses of especially large size classes, with the aim of necessary maneuverability, as a rule are made articulated.One of the ways of improving the maneuverability of articulated buses is the usage of guided towed sections. Solving the mentioned problem usually needs the mathematic models for predicting the vehicle behavior.The aim of introducing the trailer direction is to increase the overall traffic lane of an articulated bus that ensures a necessary maneuverability. The aim is gained by a choice of a rational transmitting ratio of trailer axle gear and necessary value of braking moment on one of its wheels.The solving of the problem concerning the stability of an articulated bus with a guided trailer axle was made by the way of analyzing the linear approaching of stationary vehicle movement.An influence of the construction parameters of the bus and the trailer, a transmitting ratio of control gear and a value of braking moment on the parameters of bus maneuverability were analyzed. It was proved that for an articulated bus, the normal maneuverability parameters can be ensured at the trailer direction by a way of braking of one of the wheels.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"110 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139268532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of motorway networks is to ensure smooth, high volume road traffic. The problem of anomalies in the system has been a long-standing concern for researchers, and with the widespread use of motorway networks a series of studies have been published on the subject. Speed limitation is one of the most important tools of mitigating disturbances. This study is looking for a solution to the problem known as the "shock wave effect". The research is based on a simulation method in a PTV VISSIM environment. The software can be used to examine certain traffic conditions, and then apply dynamic speed limitation based on these conditions. The Built Environment Information Platform (BENIP) is based on the idea that the built environment, the traffic, and the flow of information between them are closely related. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that a point-based notification of speed limits can be used for vehicles – a technology that is available in most cases at the infrastructure level on motorways – thus, improving road capacity and traffic safety.
{"title":"Examination of the Effects of Dynamic Speed Limit on Shock Waves with a Simulation Technique","authors":"Viktor Nagy, Gergely Kruppa, Balázs Horváth","doi":"10.3311/pptr.22238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.22238","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of motorway networks is to ensure smooth, high volume road traffic. The problem of anomalies in the system has been a long-standing concern for researchers, and with the widespread use of motorway networks a series of studies have been published on the subject. Speed limitation is one of the most important tools of mitigating disturbances. This study is looking for a solution to the problem known as the \"shock wave effect\". The research is based on a simulation method in a PTV VISSIM environment. The software can be used to examine certain traffic conditions, and then apply dynamic speed limitation based on these conditions. The Built Environment Information Platform (BENIP) is based on the idea that the built environment, the traffic, and the flow of information between them are closely related. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that a point-based notification of speed limits can be used for vehicles – a technology that is available in most cases at the infrastructure level on motorways – thus, improving road capacity and traffic safety.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"16 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136346392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research aimed to examine the spatial distribution of road traffic accidents in Budapest, Hungary. The primary objective was to identify the factors associated with traffic accidents on the city's transportation network and to determine the locations of the most frequent accidents during peak and off-peak hours. A quantitative methodology was employed in this study, utilizing a dataset of recent accidents that occurred between 2019 and 2021, classified into peak and off-peak incidents. The data was analyzed using Python software and Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) tools for big data analytics. These programs enabled the creation of spatial maps of the study area and the identification of accident spots based on latitude and longitude information. A decision tree classification approach was used in the machine-learning method implemented with Python software. Additionally, the dataset file was uploaded to QGIS, which applied the heatmap (Kernel Density Estimation) algorithm to identify accident hotspots. The study findings revealed that the city center was the most common location for accidents overall, with peak and off-peak times, lanes, and days of the week investigated as potential contributing factors. The target variable was the number of accidents involving serious and minor injuries, which were found to be significantly associated with the identified accidents in this study.
本研究旨在研究匈牙利布达佩斯道路交通事故的空间分布。主要目标是确定城市交通网络中与交通事故有关的因素，并确定高峰和非高峰时段最频繁发生事故的地点。本研究采用了定量方法，利用2019年至2021年间发生的近期事故数据集，将其分为高峰和非高峰事故。数据分析使用Python软件和量子地理信息系统(QGIS)工具进行大数据分析。这些程序能够创建研究区域的空间地图，并根据纬度和经度信息识别事故地点。在Python软件实现的机器学习方法中使用了决策树分类方法。此外，将数据集文件上传到QGIS，应用热图(Kernel Density Estimation)算法识别事故热点。研究结果显示，市中心是总体上最常见的事故发生地点，高峰和非高峰时间、车道和一周中的几天都被调查为潜在的影响因素。目标变量是涉及严重和轻微伤害的事故数量，在本研究中发现，严重和轻微伤害与已识别的事故显著相关。
{"title":"Exploring the Factors Influencing Traffic Accidents: An Analysis of Black Spots and Decision Tree for Injury Severity","authors":"Pires Abdullah, Tibor Sipos","doi":"10.3311/pptr.22392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.22392","url":null,"abstract":"This research aimed to examine the spatial distribution of road traffic accidents in Budapest, Hungary. The primary objective was to identify the factors associated with traffic accidents on the city's transportation network and to determine the locations of the most frequent accidents during peak and off-peak hours. A quantitative methodology was employed in this study, utilizing a dataset of recent accidents that occurred between 2019 and 2021, classified into peak and off-peak incidents. The data was analyzed using Python software and Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) tools for big data analytics. These programs enabled the creation of spatial maps of the study area and the identification of accident spots based on latitude and longitude information. A decision tree classification approach was used in the machine-learning method implemented with Python software. Additionally, the dataset file was uploaded to QGIS, which applied the heatmap (Kernel Density Estimation) algorithm to identify accident hotspots. The study findings revealed that the city center was the most common location for accidents overall, with peak and off-peak times, lanes, and days of the week investigated as potential contributing factors. The target variable was the number of accidents involving serious and minor injuries, which were found to be significantly associated with the identified accidents in this study.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"435 21","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135863521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many studies have been conducted worldwide to study travel behavior, specifically commuting times. Nevertheless, few or none have been conducted in the Middle East and North Africa region. The main objective of this paper is to understand the relationship between the actual, ideal and maximum willingness to commute times, and satisfaction with commuting in the city of Jounieh, Lebanon. Socio-economic and land use factors were included to investigate whether they influence commuting times. The average commuting time of the sample is 48.2 minutes, longer than their ideal commute time by about 20 minutes, while their maximum willingness to commute time is 53.46 minutes. The sample was neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with their commutes. After performing multivariate Ordinary Least Squares model, and fixing the socio-economic and land use variables, the model proved that the actual and ideal commuting times as well as the actual and maximum commuting times are positively correlated, but the actual commuting time and satisfaction are negatively correlated. A univariate Ordinary Least Square model was performed to determine the correlation between ideal and maximum commuting times; they are highly positively correlated. Finally, the average commuting times and satisfaction were compared for some categories. Women spend almost 13% less time commuting than men, yet they have lower level of satisfaction. Lebanese commuters are also shown to commute more than non-Lebanese ones by approximately 22%. University level commuters commute about 36% more than non-university level people, while unemployed and employed respondents commute for the same time.
{"title":"Analysing Associations between the Actual, Ideal and Maximum Willingness to Commute Time, as well as Satisfaction with Commuting: A Case Study of Jounieh, Lebanon","authors":"Dalia Falah, Melika Mehriar, Houshmand Masoumi","doi":"10.3311/pptr.21543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.21543","url":null,"abstract":"Many studies have been conducted worldwide to study travel behavior, specifically commuting times. Nevertheless, few or none have been conducted in the Middle East and North Africa region. The main objective of this paper is to understand the relationship between the actual, ideal and maximum willingness to commute times, and satisfaction with commuting in the city of Jounieh, Lebanon. Socio-economic and land use factors were included to investigate whether they influence commuting times. The average commuting time of the sample is 48.2 minutes, longer than their ideal commute time by about 20 minutes, while their maximum willingness to commute time is 53.46 minutes. The sample was neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with their commutes. After performing multivariate Ordinary Least Squares model, and fixing the socio-economic and land use variables, the model proved that the actual and ideal commuting times as well as the actual and maximum commuting times are positively correlated, but the actual commuting time and satisfaction are negatively correlated. A univariate Ordinary Least Square model was performed to determine the correlation between ideal and maximum commuting times; they are highly positively correlated. Finally, the average commuting times and satisfaction were compared for some categories. Women spend almost 13% less time commuting than men, yet they have lower level of satisfaction. Lebanese commuters are also shown to commute more than non-Lebanese ones by approximately 22%. University level commuters commute about 36% more than non-university level people, while unemployed and employed respondents commute for the same time.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135273683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Airport planning, and therefore the development of air infrastructure, depends to a large extent on the demand forecast for the future. To plan investments in the infrastructure of an airport system and to be able to meet future needs, it is essential to predict the level and distribution of demand, both for passengers and air cargo. In the present work, a forecast was made, in the medium-long term (10 years), of the demand for passengers and air cargo, applied to a specific case study (Colombia), and where the impact on air traffic during the most severe period of the COVID-19 pandemic was taken into account. To achieve this objective, and as a methodological approach, a model of the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) type was developed, designed to work with time series data, and widely used for feature selection, time series forecasting, and the immediate inference of the causal impact. From the results obtained, two relevant aspects can be highlighted, firstly, both demand and its growth trend will recover very soon (in just a couple of years), compared to the pre-pandemic year 2019, which was analyzed in the case study. And, secondly, the model presents very acceptable MAPE values (between 1% and 7%, depending on the variable to be forecasted), which makes the BSTS method a viable alternative methodology for calculating air traffic forecasts.
{"title":"Air Traffic Demand Forecasting with a Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach","authors":"Yesid Rodríguez, Oscar Díaz Olariaga","doi":"10.3311/pptr.20973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.20973","url":null,"abstract":"Airport planning, and therefore the development of air infrastructure, depends to a large extent on the demand forecast for the future. To plan investments in the infrastructure of an airport system and to be able to meet future needs, it is essential to predict the level and distribution of demand, both for passengers and air cargo. In the present work, a forecast was made, in the medium-long term (10 years), of the demand for passengers and air cargo, applied to a specific case study (Colombia), and where the impact on air traffic during the most severe period of the COVID-19 pandemic was taken into account. To achieve this objective, and as a methodological approach, a model of the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) type was developed, designed to work with time series data, and widely used for feature selection, time series forecasting, and the immediate inference of the causal impact. From the results obtained, two relevant aspects can be highlighted, firstly, both demand and its growth trend will recover very soon (in just a couple of years), compared to the pre-pandemic year 2019, which was analyzed in the case study. And, secondly, the model presents very acceptable MAPE values (between 1% and 7%, depending on the variable to be forecasted), which makes the BSTS method a viable alternative methodology for calculating air traffic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135994907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The analysis of the processes between supplier and customer and the detection and handling of defects is based on objective, quantified criteria so that customer complaints can be handled as efficiently as possible, with the least possible inconvenience. One possible risk-management method is FMEA, or Failure Mode(s) and Effect(s) Analysis, which allows a team to anticipate and prevent failures from occurring anywhere. It is an analytical methodology to identify and check for potential problems when designing a product, service or process. It can be used to reduce the number of defective supplies and thus indirectly increase customer satisfaction (by more efficient purchasing, the price can be kept lower and the quality higher, and fewer customer complaints from end users can be expected). It was used in this study to assess the supplier quality of a Hungarian industrial company in the FMCG sector and to make tangible improvements in a short time to eliminate supplier defects.
{"title":"Supplier Qualification Using FMEA in a Meat Company","authors":"Adrienn Boldizsár, Erika Török, Attila Pásztor","doi":"10.3311/pptr.22548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.22548","url":null,"abstract":"The analysis of the processes between supplier and customer and the detection and handling of defects is based on objective, quantified criteria so that customer complaints can be handled as efficiently as possible, with the least possible inconvenience. One possible risk-management method is FMEA, or Failure Mode(s) and Effect(s) Analysis, which allows a team to anticipate and prevent failures from occurring anywhere. It is an analytical methodology to identify and check for potential problems when designing a product, service or process. It can be used to reduce the number of defective supplies and thus indirectly increase customer satisfaction (by more efficient purchasing, the price can be kept lower and the quality higher, and fewer customer complaints from end users can be expected). It was used in this study to assess the supplier quality of a Hungarian industrial company in the FMCG sector and to make tangible improvements in a short time to eliminate supplier defects.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134990148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A very large number of people are killed on the roads. Although the value is decreasing from year to year and the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents even further, the number is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out on which days of the week the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the analyzed value.The aim of the article is to develop a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the days of the week. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of road accidents in Poland by days of the week were analyzed on the basis of Police data. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2024 was made in Statistica software. Selected neural network models were used to forecast the number of road accidents. The results show that we can still expect a reduction in the number of road accidents on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic disturbs the results obtained. The choice of the number of random samples (learning, testing and validation) affects the obtained results.
{"title":"Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week Using Neural Networks","authors":"Piotr Gorzelanczyk","doi":"10.3311/pptr.22203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.22203","url":null,"abstract":"A very large number of people are killed on the roads. Although the value is decreasing from year to year and the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents even further, the number is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out on which days of the week the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the analyzed value.The aim of the article is to develop a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the days of the week. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of road accidents in Poland by days of the week were analyzed on the basis of Police data. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2024 was made in Statistica software. Selected neural network models were used to forecast the number of road accidents. The results show that we can still expect a reduction in the number of road accidents on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic disturbs the results obtained. The choice of the number of random samples (learning, testing and validation) affects the obtained results.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134989497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Based on the analysis of the fundamental impact of transport infrastructure, the city and the agglomeration are increasingly interpreted as a set of historically composed residential and industrial districts formed in the areas of interchanges of different modes of transport. On the example of the City of Kyiv, the modeling of passenger flows in agglomerations of large developing cities is considered, in order to implement the provisions of a modern urban environment, based on transport analysis of the urban area, with further forecasting of passenger flows on the street-road network and choice of main types of citywide passenger transport in the city. Based on the calculation of the population and passenger formation of transport areas, a model of the city's transport infrastructure is represented, the distribution of passenger traffic by modes of transport is estimated. The results of experimental studies of the intensity of existing passenger flows and models of their definition in the agglomeration of the most valuable city are determined. And the ways to solve the problems of conflict between the city and transport are proposed.
{"title":"Modeling of Passenger Flows in Agglomerations of Large Developing Cities (on the Example of Kyiv)","authors":"Dmitry Prusov, Svetlana Dubova","doi":"10.3311/pptr.19785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3311/pptr.19785","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the analysis of the fundamental impact of transport infrastructure, the city and the agglomeration are increasingly interpreted as a set of historically composed residential and industrial districts formed in the areas of interchanges of different modes of transport. On the example of the City of Kyiv, the modeling of passenger flows in agglomerations of large developing cities is considered, in order to implement the provisions of a modern urban environment, based on transport analysis of the urban area, with further forecasting of passenger flows on the street-road network and choice of main types of citywide passenger transport in the city. Based on the calculation of the population and passenger formation of transport areas, a model of the city's transport infrastructure is represented, the distribution of passenger traffic by modes of transport is estimated. The results of experimental studies of the intensity of existing passenger flows and models of their definition in the agglomeration of the most valuable city are determined. And the ways to solve the problems of conflict between the city and transport are proposed.","PeriodicalId":39536,"journal":{"name":"Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134990429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：