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Urban Growth and Convergence Dynamics after COVID-19 新冠肺炎后城市增长与趋同动态
Pub Date : 2021-01-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3764497
S. Magrini, Marco Di Cataldo, Margherita Gerolimetto
Internet and near-instant communication services have had a strong impact on the way people communicate and exchange information since the end of the 1990s. The COVID-19 pandemic shock is likely to provide a dramatic boost to this phenomenon. In the world that will emerge from lockdown, digital communication and videoconferencing will be integral part of daily working and social life to a much higher extent than before. This will have a disproportionally strong impact on knowledge based activities, and therefore on research. This paper presents a theoretical model of endogenous economic growth with the aim of providing hints on the possible consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on income per capita growth and disparities within a system of integrated urban areas. In the model, abstract technological knowledge flows at no cost across space. In contrast, flows of tacit knowledge arise from the interaction between researchers and hence tends to be hampered by distance. Within this framework, the diffusion of broadband technology, high-speed connections and videoconferencing takes the form of a reduction of the “cost of distance” for flows of tacit knowledge. This reinforces productive specialization that, in turn, yields an increase in the system-wide, common growth rate and an increase in income per capita disparities across areas. On the other hand, social distancing is likely to yield an asymmetric negative impact on the productivity of urban research systems thus leading to a decrease in the growth rate.
自20世纪90年代末以来,互联网和近即时通信服务对人们沟通和交换信息的方式产生了强烈的影响。2019冠状病毒病大流行的冲击可能会极大地推动这一现象。在封闭后的世界里,数字通信和视频会议将比以往更高程度地成为日常工作和社交生活不可或缺的一部分。这将对以知识为基础的活动产生不成比例的强烈影响,因此也会对研究产生影响。本文提出了一个内生经济增长的理论模型,旨在为COVID-19大流行冲击对城市地区一体化体系内人均收入增长和差距的可能后果提供线索。在该模型中,抽象的技术知识在空间中免费流动。相反,隐性知识的流动源于研究者之间的互动,因此往往受到距离的阻碍。在这一框架内,宽带技术、高速连接和视频会议的扩散以降低隐性知识流动的“距离成本”的形式出现。这加强了生产专门化,从而增加了全系统的共同增长率和各地区的人均收入差距。另一方面,社会距离可能会对城市研究系统的生产力产生不对称的负面影响,从而导致增长率下降。
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引用次数: 1
With Booze, You Lose: The Mortality Effects of Early Retirement 喝酒,你输了:提前退休对死亡率的影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3721505
P. Chuard
This study analyzes the effect of early retirement on male mortality. I exploit two reforms in Switzerland, which allowed men as of a certain cohort to retire one and two years before the statutory retirement age. This generates two sharp eligibility cutoff dates, which I use in a regression discontinuity design. I draw from two full sample administrative data sets: the mortality and the old age insurance register. Retiring two years before the statutory retirement age increases the absolute risk of death before the age 83 by 41 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is driven by lifestyle diseases such as alcohol dependence and respiratory diseases related to smoking. The effect is largest for unmarried men and for men living in the German-speaking part of Switzerland — who show a higher social norm toward work than men living in the Latin part. Also, there is no effect heterogeneity regarding income, which suggests that the negative health effect is not caused by a loss in income due to retirement. The results support the lifestyle hypothesis suggesting that retirement increases mortality due to a loss of structure and a concomitant unhealthy lifestyle.
本研究分析提早退休对男性死亡率的影响。我利用了瑞士的两项改革,这两项改革允许特定群体的男性在法定退休年龄前一年和两年退休。这将生成两个明显的资格截止日期,我将其用于回归不连续设计。我从两个完整的行政数据集中得出结论:死亡率和老年保险登记。比法定退休年龄提前两年退休会使83岁前死亡的绝对风险增加41个百分点。异质性分析显示,这种影响是由生活方式疾病(如酒精依赖和与吸烟有关的呼吸系统疾病)驱动的。这种影响在未婚男性和生活在瑞士德语区的男性身上表现得最为明显——他们对工作的社会规范高于生活在拉丁区的男性。此外,收入方面的影响不存在异质性,这表明对健康的负面影响不是由退休导致的收入损失造成的。研究结果支持了生活方式假说,即退休会增加死亡率,因为结构丧失和随之而来的不健康的生活方式。
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引用次数: 0
The Great Pandemic of the 21st Century: The Stolen Lives 21世纪的大流行病:被偷走的生命
Pub Date : 2020-09-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3689993
John Taskinsoy
One microscopic coronavirus has done what US sanctions, tariffs, embargoes, trade war, and the use of dollar as a weapon of economic destruction have failed to accomplish. The COVID-19 pandemic shock has caused unconceivable damage; 200,000 stolen lives in the U.S. (and close to 1 million in the world) and trillions of dollars globally. The farfetched impacts of coronavirus pandemic, the costliest in history (i.e. Great Lockdown), put many economies including the world’s biggest economy on a ventilator. Important signs provided by the coronavirus health crisis must not be ignored as previous signs were in the past. Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved if the White House (US President Donald Trump in particular) did not choose to downplay significant impacts of COVID-19; moreover, despite clear warnings by senior officials in late January 2020, not only Mr. Trump delayed taking aggressive actions to curb the spread of the virus to the United States (i.e. closing schools, locking down cities/states, imposing a travel ban, enforcing face masks, and social distancing), but he focused instead on protecting his re-election campaign; he also took the easy way out and blamed Beijing for misleading governments and not sharing the genome sequence of the coronavirus.
一种微小的冠状病毒做到了美国制裁、关税、禁运、贸易战和将美元用作经济破坏武器都未能做到的事情。COVID-19大流行的冲击造成了难以想象的破坏;美国有20万人(全世界有近100万人)的生命被盗,全球损失了数万亿美元。冠状病毒大流行的牵强影响是历史上最昂贵的(即大封锁),使包括世界最大经济体在内的许多经济体都戴上了呼吸机。不能像过去一样忽视新冠肺炎健康危机提供的重要信号。如果白宫(特别是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普)没有选择淡化COVID-19的重大影响,数万人的生命本可以挽救;此外,尽管高级官员在2020年1月底发出了明确警告,但特朗普不仅推迟了采取积极行动遏制病毒向美国传播(即关闭学校、封锁城市/州、实施旅行禁令、强制佩戴口罩和保持社交距离),反而把重点放在保护自己的连任竞选上;他还采取了简单的方式,指责北京误导政府,没有分享冠状病毒的基因组序列。
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引用次数: 9
COVID-19: Health and Economic Impacts of Societal Intervention Policies in the U.S. COVID-19:美国社会干预政策对健康和经济的影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3681610
Alireza Boloori, S. Saghafian
Intervention policies, like stay-at-home orders, are shown to be effective in controlling the spread of the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, concerns over economic burdens of these policies have propelled U.S. states to move towards reopening. Decision-making in most states has been challenging, especially because of a dearth of quantitative evidence on health gains versus economic burdens of different intervention policies. To assist decision-makers, we make use of detailed data from 51 U.S. states on various factors, including number of tests, positive and negative results, hospitalizations, ICU beds and ventilators used, residents' mobility, and deaths, and provide an analytical framework to measure per capita total costs versus quality-adjusted life years (QALY) under various intervention policies. Our results show that, compared to a hypothetical no intervention during March-June 2020, the policies undertaken across the U.S. on average saved each person up to 4.04 days worth of QALY while incurring $3,284.67 for him/her. Had the states undertaken more strict policies during the same time frame than those they adopted, the increase in the average QALY and cost per person would be up to 6 days and $4,953.81, respectively. We also find that stricter policies are not cost-effective at the typical willingness-to-pay rates. Imposing such strict policies, however, may be inevitable in the near future, especially if the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 increases. Finally, in addition to quantifying the health and economic impacts of intervention policies, our results allow federal and state authorities to avoid following a “one-size-fits-all" strategy, and instead enact policies that are better suited for each state.
事实证明,居家令等干预政策对控制2019年新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播是有效的。然而,对这些政策带来的经济负担的担忧促使美国各州朝着重新开放的方向迈进。大多数州的决策一直具有挑战性,特别是因为缺乏关于不同干预政策的健康收益与经济负担的定量证据。为了帮助决策者,我们利用了来自美国51个州的各种因素的详细数据,包括检查次数、阳性和阴性结果、住院情况、ICU床位和使用的呼吸机、居民的流动性和死亡,并提供了一个分析框架来衡量在各种干预政策下的人均总成本与质量调整生命年(QALY)。我们的研究结果表明,与假设2020年3月至6月期间不进行干预相比,美国各地采取的政策平均为每个人节省了4.04天的QALY,同时为他/她产生了3284.67美元。如果各州在同一时间段内采取了比他们采取的更严格的政策,那么平均质量和人均成本的增加将分别达到6天和4,953.81美元。我们还发现,在典型的支付意愿率下,更严格的政策并不具有成本效益。然而,在不久的将来,实施这种严格的政策可能是不可避免的,特别是如果第二波新冠肺炎的风险增加的话。最后,除了量化干预政策的健康和经济影响外,我们的结果还允许联邦和州当局避免遵循“一刀切”的策略,而是制定更适合每个州的政策。
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引用次数: 2
The Effect of Expanding Paid Maternity Leave on Maternal Health: Evidence From the United States Air Force & Army 扩大带薪产假对产妇健康的影响:来自美国空军和陆军的证据
Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3601018
Cary Balser, A. Bukowinski, C. Hall
We assess the impact of fully paid maternity leave on maternal health in the year after birth. We exploit a sudden expansion of paid leave from 6 to 12 weeks in the United States Army and Air Force to estimate impacts under regression discontinuity and difference in differences frameworks. Administrative records covering medical diagnoses, procedures, and utilization by mothers allow for comprehensive measurement of changes in both direct health outcomes and utilization. Our main finding is that expanding maternity leave significantly decreased the likelihood of postpartum depression diagnosis. We additionally provide evidence that expanding leave reduced mothers' pain and health care utilization, however, these results are somewhat sensitive to specification choice. Across all outcomes, improvements in maternal health are concentrated in the period of additional leave, making it unlikely that improved health capital is the primary mechanism through which family leave improves maternal health.
我们评估了全薪产假对分娩后一年产妇健康的影响。我们利用美国陆军和空军的带薪休假从6周突然扩大到12周的情况来估计在回归不连续和差异框架中的差异下的影响。包括医疗诊断、程序和母亲使用情况的行政记录,可以全面衡量直接健康结果和使用情况的变化。我们的主要发现是延长产假显著降低了产后抑郁症诊断的可能性。我们还提供证据表明,延长产假减少了母亲的痛苦和医疗保健利用,但这些结果对规范选择有些敏感。在所有成果中,孕产妇健康的改善主要集中在额外休假期间,因此,改善保健资本不太可能是家庭假改善孕产妇健康的主要机制。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Stay-at-Home Orders on US Output: A Network Perspective 居家订单对美国产出的影响:一个网络视角
Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3571866
Shaowen Luo, K. Tsang, Zichao Yang
Under the stay-at-home orders issued by states, economic activities are reduced or put on hold by some states across the U.S. to control the spread of COVID-19. By combining several sources of data, we estimate the output loss due to such restrictions using a network approach. Based on our most conservative estimates, the measures as of April 15, 2020 reduce 26% of total US output per period, and about 43% of which is due to the input-output connections in the production network. Using a SIR model with an inter-state infection network, we also calculate the cost of reducing each infection to be approximately $150,000 during the period of March 19 to April 15, 2020. Simulation results of various hypothetical stay-at-home orders show that the unit cost of infection reduction of the existing order is about 13% higher than the local minimum.
根据各州发布的居家令,美国一些州减少或暂停经济活动,以控制COVID-19的传播。通过结合多个数据源,我们使用网络方法估计由于这些限制造成的输出损失。根据我们最保守的估计,截至2020年4月15日,这些措施将使美国每个时期的总产出减少26%,其中约43%是由于生产网络中的投入产出连接。使用具有州际感染网络的SIR模型,我们还计算出在2020年3月19日至4月15日期间减少每次感染的成本约为15万美元。对各种假设居家令的模拟结果表明,现有居家令减少感染的单位成本比局部最小值高13%左右。
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引用次数: 6
Research Funding and Price Negotiation for New Drugs 新药研究经费与价格谈判
Pub Date : 2018-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3319750
F. Barigozzi, I. Jelovac
This paper analyzes the negotiation process, which leads to basic research funding and price setting for new drugs in regulated health insurance markets. Its results bring answers to the following questions: Should basic research be privately funded, publicly funded, or produced by an independent lab? Under which conditions is public integration of basic research efficient? How do pharmaceutical prices respond to different organizations of basic research? We show that efficiency and prices are higher when basic research is integrated in the firm that commercializes the drug as compared with independent basic research. In both organizations, the higher the negotiation power of the research labs relative to the one of the public health authority is, the higher the prices and the efficiency are. We thereby confirm the traditional trade-off between price containment and dynamic efficiency. We identify one important exception to this trade-off. Indeed, public integration of basic research can result in lowest prices and highest efficiency, as compared with the other possible organizations, in particular when basic and applied research are highly complementary.
本文分析了在受监管的医疗保险市场中导致新药基础研究经费和价格设定的谈判过程。其结果为以下问题提供了答案:基础研究应该由私人资助、公共资助还是由独立实验室进行?基础研究的公共整合在什么条件下是有效的?药品价格对不同的基础研究组织有何反应?我们表明,与独立的基础研究相比,将基础研究整合到将药物商业化的公司时,效率和价格更高。在这两个组织中,研究实验室的谈判能力相对于公共卫生当局的谈判能力越高,价格和效率越高。因此,我们确认了价格控制与动态效率之间的传统权衡。我们确定了这种权衡的一个重要例外。的确,与其他可能的组织相比,基础研究的公共整合可以产生最低的价格和最高的效率,特别是在基础研究和应用研究高度互补的情况下。
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引用次数: 7
Tobacco Taxation Incidence: Evidence from the Russian Federation 烟草税发生率:来自俄罗斯联邦的证据
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8626
A. Fuchs, M. Matytsin, O. Obukhova
Despite the well-known positive effect tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers avoid relying on such taxes because of their possible regressive impact. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of cigarettes in the Russian Federation, this paper finds that the long-run impact may in face be progressive. The methodology applied incorporates the negative price effect cause by an increase in tobacco taxes, combines with a presumed future reduction in medical expenditures and a rise in working years caused by a reduction in the rate of smoking among the population. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios, based on information taken from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey--Higher School of Economics for 2010-16. One contribution is the qualification of impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, cigarette taxes exert long-term effect on household incomes, although the magnitude depends on the structure of the conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then it would experience greater gains from the health and extended work-life benefits.
尽管烟草税对健康结果具有众所周知的积极作用,但政策制定者避免依赖此类税,因为它们可能产生递减影响。本文使用扩展成本效益分析来估计卷烟在俄罗斯联邦的分配效应,发现长期影响在表面上可能是渐进的。所采用的方法综合考虑了烟草税增加所造成的负面价格效应,以及假定未来医疗支出减少和人口吸烟率下降所导致的工作年限增加。该分析包括基于俄罗斯纵向监测调查——高等经济学院2010- 2016年的信息,在各种情况下对卷烟价格上涨的分布影响的估计。一个贡献是通过允许价格弹性在消费十分位数之间变化来限定影响。总体而言,香烟税对家庭收入有长期影响,尽管影响程度取决于条件价格弹性的结构。如果人们对烟草价格的变化更敏感,那么他们将从健康和延长的工作-生活福利中获得更大的收益。
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引用次数: 5
Illicit Drugs and the Decline of the Middle Class 非法毒品和中产阶级的衰落
Pub Date : 2018-08-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3236175
V. Grossmann, H. Strulik
Empirical evidence for the U.S. suggests that the consumption of intoxicants increases in association with the socio-economic deprivation of the middle-class. To explore the underlying mechanisms, we set up a task-based labor market model with endogenous mental health status and a health care system. The decline of tasks that were historically performed by the middle class and the associated decline in relative wages and socio-economic status increases the share of mentally ill middle class workers. Mentally ill workers can mitigate their hardships by the intake of illicit drugs or by consuming health goods. We argue that explaining the drug epidemic of the U.S. middle class requires an interaction of socio-economic decline and falling opioid prices. One factor in isolation is typically insufficient. Our analysis also points to a central role of the health care system. In our model, extending mental health care could motivate the mentally ill to abstain from illicit drug consumption.
美国的经验证据表明,麻醉品消费的增加与中产阶级的社会经济剥夺有关。为了探究其潜在机制,我们建立了一个具有内生心理健康状况和医疗保健制度的任务型劳动力市场模型。历史上由中产阶级承担的任务的减少,以及相关的相对工资和社会经济地位的下降,增加了患有精神疾病的中产阶级工人的比例。患有精神疾病的工人可以通过服用非法药物或消费保健品来减轻他们的痛苦。我们认为,解释美国中产阶级的毒品流行需要社会经济衰退和阿片类药物价格下降的相互作用。单独的一个因素通常是不够的。我们的分析还指出了医疗保健系统的核心作用。在我们的模型中,扩大精神卫生保健可以激励精神病患者戒除非法药物消费。
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引用次数: 8
The Impacts of Reduced Access to Abortion and Family Planning Services on Abortion, Births and Contraceptive Purchases 减少获得堕胎和计划生育服务对堕胎、生育和避孕药具购买的影响
Pub Date : 2018-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3010397
S. Fischer, Heather Royer, Corey White
Between 2011 and 2014, Texas enacted three pieces of legislation that significantly reduced funding for family planning services and increased restrictions on abortion clinic operations. Together this legislation creates cross-county variation over time in access to abortion and family planning services, which we leverage to understand the impact of family planning and abortion clinic access on abortions, births, and contraceptive purchases. In response to these policies, abortions to Texas residents fell 16.7% and births rose 1.3% in counties that no longer had an abortion provider within 50 miles. Changes in the family planning market induced a 1.2% increase in births for counties that no longer had a publicly funded family planning clinic within 25 miles. Meanwhile, responses of retail purchases of condoms and emergency contraceptives to both abortion and family planning service changes were minimal.
在2011年至2014年期间,德克萨斯州颁布了三项立法,大大减少了计划生育服务的资金,并增加了对堕胎诊所手术的限制。随着时间的推移,这项立法在获得堕胎和计划生育服务方面造成了跨县差异,我们利用这一点来了解计划生育和堕胎诊所对堕胎、分娩和避孕药具购买的影响。在这些政策的影响下,德克萨斯州居民的堕胎率下降了16.7%,而在50英里范围内不再有堕胎提供者的县,出生率上升了1.3%。计划生育市场的变化导致25英里范围内不再有公共资助的计划生育诊所的县的出生率增加了1.2%。同时,避孕套和紧急避孕用品的零售购买对堕胎和计划生育服务变化的反应最小。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
Health Economics Evaluation Methods eJournal
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