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AI regulation in the European Union: examining non-state actor preferences 欧盟的人工智能监管:研究非国家行为者的偏好
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.36
Jonas Tallberg, Magnus Lundgren, Johannes Geith
As the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to grow, policymakers are increasingly grappling with the question of how to regulate this technology. The most far-reaching international initiative is the European Union (EU) AI Act, which aims to establish the first comprehensive, binding framework for regulating AI. In this article, we offer the first systematic analysis of non-state actor preferences toward international regulation of AI, focusing on the case of the EU AI Act. Theoretically, we develop an argument about the regulatory preferences of business actors and other non-state actors under varying conditions of AI sector competitiveness. Empirically, we test these expectations using data from public consultations on European AI regulation. Our findings are threefold. First, all types of non-state actors express concerns about AI and support regulation in some form. Second, there are nonetheless significant differences across actor types, with business actors being less concerned about the downsides of AI and more in favor of lax regulation than other non-state actors. Third, these differences are more pronounced in countries with stronger commercial AI sectors. Our findings shed new light on non-state actor preferences toward AI regulation and point to challenges for policymakers balancing competing interests in society.
随着人工智能(AI)的开发和使用不断增长,政策制定者正越来越多地努力解决如何监管这项技术的问题。影响最深远的国际倡议是欧洲联盟(欧盟)的《人工智能法案》,该法案旨在建立首个全面、具有约束力的人工智能监管框架。在本文中,我们首次系统分析了非国家行为者对人工智能国际监管的偏好,重点关注欧盟人工智能法案的案例。从理论上讲,我们提出了一个论点,即在人工智能行业竞争力的不同条件下,企业行为者和其他非国家行为者的监管偏好。在实证方面,我们利用欧洲人工智能法规公众咨询的数据检验了这些预期。我们的研究结果有三个方面。首先,所有类型的非国家行为者都表达了对人工智能的担忧,并支持某种形式的监管。其次,不同类型的行为者之间存在显著差异,与其他非国家行为者相比,企业行为者对人工智能弊端的担忧更少,对宽松监管的支持度更高。第三,这些差异在商业人工智能部门较强的国家更为明显。我们的研究结果为非国家行为者对人工智能监管的偏好提供了新的视角,并为政策制定者平衡社会中相互竞争的利益指出了挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder Cues, National Origin, and Public Opinion Towards Firms: Evidence in the Context of the First Bank in an American Indian Nation 利益相关者线索、民族血统和公众对企业的看法:美国印第安民族第一家银行的证据
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.29
Rachel L. Wellhausen, Donn L. Feir, Calvin Thrall
When and how does stakeholder credibility matter in shaping public opinion? We explore this question in a real-world setting: in order to fight its citizens’ financial exclusion—a key barrier to development in Indian Country—American Indian Nation “A” negotiated the first entry of the first bank to its reservation. The bank is owned by American Indian Nation “B.” To the Federal Reserve, the bank branch is a potential proof-of-concept for the capacity of tribe-to-tribe investment to improve capital access in underserved Native communities. The bank’s success ultimately depends on whether Nation A’s citizens use its services; in the months before its opening, all three stakeholders independently attempted to influence public opinion toward the bank. We collaborated to conduct a first-of-its-kind survey of Nation A’s tribal members, finding high baseline buy-in especially given the bank’s nationality, but weak and even counterproductive treatment effects of pro-banking cues provided by Nation A and the Federal Reserve. Our results make clear the practical benefits of theory-building around stakeholder credibility, and the crucial role of individual attitudes in the political economy of development.
利益相关者的可信度何时以及如何影响公众舆论?我们在现实世界中探讨了这一问题:为了消除其公民的金融排斥--这是印第安人国家发展的主要障碍--美国印第安人部落 "A "通过谈判,让第一家银行首次进入其保留地。该银行为美国印第安人部落 "B "所有。对美联储而言,该银行分行是一个潜在的概念验证,证明部落与部落之间的投资有能力改善服务不足的原住民社区的资本获取情况。银行的成功与否最终取决于 A 国公民是否使用其服务;在开业前的几个月里,所有三个利益相关者都在努力影响公众对银行的看法。我们合作对 A 族部落成员进行了首次同类调查,结果发现,特别是考虑到该银行的国籍,其基线认同度很高,但 A 族部落和美联储提供的支持银行业务的线索的处理效果很弱,甚至适得其反。我们的研究结果清楚地表明了围绕利益相关者可信度建立理论的实际益处,以及个人态度在发展的政治经济学中的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Antidumping Protectionism and Globalized Economies 反倾销保护主义与全球化经济
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.31
Tyler Coleman
Why do firms demand antidumping protectionism? Contemporary literature highlights a plethora of causal mechanisms within the data-generating process, including retaliatory motives, exchange rate appreciations, business cycles, and deindustrialization. I argue that countries that are economically integrated into global markets should be associated with less demand for antidumping trade remedies. In particular, countries with higher levels of trade and financial flows should receive fewer petitions for antidumping trade remedies from firms overall, ceteris paribus. I test this theoretical argument with a series of de facto globalization indicators collected from thirty-three countries between 1978 and 2022, finding support for these arguments.
企业为何要求反倾销保护主义?当代文献强调了数据生成过程中的大量因果机制,包括报复动机、汇率升值、商业周期和去工业化。我认为,经济上融入全球市场的国家对反倾销贸易救济措施的需求较少。特别是,在同等条件下,贸易和资金流动水平较高的国家收到的来自企业的反倾销贸易救济申请应该更少。我用 1978 年至 2022 年间从 33 个国家收集的一系列事实上的全球化指标来验证这一理论论点,结果发现这些论点得到了支持。
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引用次数: 0
Is industrial policy back in fashion? Text-as-data evidence from UK policy documents 产业政策重新流行起来了吗?英国政策文件中的文本即数据证据
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.37
Mircea Popa
This article evaluates the claim that industrial policy is seeing a revival in developed economies, using text-as-data evidence from UK government policy papers. Structural topic modeling shows that content which can be related to industrial policy has indeed seen a large increase in prevalence over the past decade compared to the baseline of the post-1980 liberal era. Moreover, such content is shown to be increasingly central to post-2010 economic policy based on its position in the network of topics, on the number of downloads of documents associated with it, and on inclusion in important papers. An automated text summarization algorithm is used to extract the fragments which are most representative for these developments, and these are shown to closely match common definitions of industrial policy. A sentiment analysis algorithm is then used to extract the motivations given for policy proposals in representative documents, and indicates that declining economic competitiveness is a central concern.
本文利用英国政府政策文件中的文本即数据证据,对 "产业政策正在发达经济体中复兴 "这一说法进行了评估。结构性主题建模显示,与 1980 年后自由主义时代的基线相比,与产业政策相关的内容在过去十年中确实出现了大幅增长。此外,根据其在主题网络中的位置、与之相关的文件下载量以及在重要文件中的收录情况来看,这些内容在 2010 年后的经济政策中越来越重要。我们使用自动文本摘要算法来提取最能代表这些发展的片段,结果显示这些片段与产业政策的常见定义非常吻合。然后使用情感分析算法提取代表性文件中政策建议的动机,结果表明经济竞争力下降是人们关注的核心问题。
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引用次数: 0
Relative strength and foreign direct investment in civil conflicts 国内冲突中的相对实力和外国直接投资
3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.23
Samaila Oluwatope Adelaiye, Si Chen, Mehwish Sarwari
Abstract What factors contribute to the differences in foreign direct investment (FDI) levels in environments characterized as high risk? While research shows that armed conflict influences foreign investment decisions, it remains unclear how conflict dynamics, specifically the relative power capabilities of warring parties, affect FDI. This study explores the effects of rebel strength relative to government forces on FDI. We argue that there is a reduction in foreign investments in civil conflict countries as rebels gain a military advantage relative to the government. Stronger insurgents send a signal that the government is losing its strength in the conflict, creating uncertainty regarding conflict outcomes and posing economic and security risks for investors. To avoid facing economic and property losses due to increasing rebel strength, investors are incentivized to decrease their investment in the conflict state. Using data on insurgent troop size relative to government forces and FDI, our findings show that higher military capabilities of rebel forces relative to the government are associated with less FDI inflows in conflict-affected countries.
高风险环境下外商直接投资(FDI)水平差异的成因是什么?虽然研究表明武装冲突影响外国投资决策,但目前尚不清楚冲突动态,特别是交战各方的相对实力如何影响外国直接投资。本研究探讨反抗力量相对于政府军对FDI的影响。我们认为,国内冲突国家的外国投资减少,因为叛军获得了相对于政府的军事优势。更强大的叛乱分子发出了一个信号,即政府在冲突中正在失去力量,这给冲突的结果带来了不确定性,并给投资者带来了经济和安全风险。为了避免因叛军力量增强而面临经济和财产损失,投资者被激励减少在冲突国家的投资。利用叛乱部队规模相对于政府军和外国直接投资的数据,我们的研究结果表明,在受冲突影响的国家,叛乱部队相对于政府的军事能力较高,与外国直接投资流入较少有关。
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引用次数: 0
Business politicians and fiscal consolidation 商业政治家和财政整顿
3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.24
Nicola Nones
Abstract What explains the variation in countries’ propensity to engage in austerity policy? Economic and political country-level factors are the paramount explanations in the literature. Nevertheless, variation in fiscal preferences at the executive level remains underexplored, except for ideology. Moreover, budget decisions are endogenous to the state of the economy, thus casting doubt on standard measures based on the debt and/or deficit ratio. This article contributes to the literature in two ways. First, I turn to the individual level of analysis and suggest that leaders with business experience are more likely to pursue a balanced budget and tend to implement fiscal consolidation policies based on spending cuts. Second, I ease concerns about individuals’ self-selection into office by relying on fiscal adjustments that are weakly orthogonal to the economic cycle. The statistical analysis of a panel of 17 OECD countries between 1978 and 2014 confirms the theoretical expectations. The results are robust to a variety of specification and statistical methodologies and hold for a subset of as-if random leadership transitions following close elections. A case study of Brian Mulroney's governments in Canada (1984–93) further illustrates the argument.
如何解释各国实施紧缩政策倾向的差异?经济和政治国家层面的因素是文献中最重要的解释。然而,除了意识形态之外,行政层面财政偏好的变化仍未得到充分探讨。此外,预算决策是经济状况的内生因素,因此对基于债务和/或赤字比率的标准衡量方法产生了怀疑。这篇文章对文献的贡献有两个方面。首先,我转向个人层面的分析,并建议具有商业经验的领导人更有可能追求平衡预算,并倾向于实施基于削减支出的财政整顿政策。其次,我通过依赖与经济周期弱正交的财政调整,缓解了人们对个人自我选择就职的担忧。对17个经合组织国家1978年至2014年的统计分析证实了这一理论预期。研究结果对各种规格和统计方法都具有鲁棒性,并且适用于在接近选举后似乎是随机的领导层过渡的子集。对加拿大布赖恩•马尔罗尼政府(1984-93)的案例研究进一步说明了这一观点。
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引用次数: 0
Economic globalization and the fracturing of business interest representation in the European Union – CORRIGENDUM 经济全球化和欧盟商业利益代表的分裂-勘误表
3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.28
Marcel Hanegraaff, Arlo Poletti, Ellis Aizenberg
An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
此内容没有摘要。当您可以访问此内容时,该页上会提供完整的HTML内容。此内容的PDF也可以通过“保存PDF”操作按钮获得。
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引用次数: 0
Enforcing economic sanctions by tarnishing corporate reputations 通过玷污企业声誉来实施经济制裁
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.22
Keith A. Preble, B. Early
What strategies work best for enforcing sanctions? Sanctions enforcement agencies like the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) face resource limitations and political constraints in punishing domestic firms for violating sanctions. Beyond monetary fines, sanctions enforcement actions also serve a “naming and shaming” function that tarnishes violators’ reputations. Larger, higher-profile companies tend have much more at stake in terms of their reputations than smaller or less well-known firms. At the same time, punishing higher-profile companies for sanctions violations is likely to generate more publicity about the risks and potential consequences of not complying with sanctions. We theorize that OFAC should impose larger fines on high-profile companies to draw attention to those cases, make the enforcement actions more memorable, and enhance the reputational costs that they inflict. We conduct a statistical analysis of OFAC enforcement actions from 2010 to 2021 and find support for our theory.
实施制裁的最佳策略是什么?美国外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)等制裁执行机构在惩罚违反制裁的国内公司时面临资源限制和政治约束。除了罚款之外,制裁执行行动还有“点名羞辱”的作用,损害了违规者的声誉。规模较大、知名度较高的公司往往比规模较小或知名度较低的公司在声誉方面面临更大的风险。与此同时,惩罚违反制裁的知名企业,可能会让公众更多地认识到不遵守制裁的风险和潜在后果。我们的理论是,OFAC应该对知名公司施加更大的罚款,以引起人们对这些案件的关注,使执法行动更令人难忘,并提高他们造成的声誉成本。我们对2010年至2021年OFAC的执法行动进行了统计分析,并为我们的理论找到了支持。
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引用次数: 1
What types of social policies does business want? Examining German employer associations’ positions toward labor-protective and labor-activating social policies 企业需要什么样的社会政策?考察德国雇主协会对劳动保护和劳动激活社会政策的立场
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.18
Benedikt Bender, Thomas Paster
Studies inspired by the varieties of capitalism (VoC) approach suggest that in coordinated market economies, some employer associations support public social policies to encourage the workforce to invest in company and industry-specific skills (VoC thesis). Yet the VoC thesis remains disputed. We present and assess an alternative thesis that builds on employers’ interest in the protection of labor supply (labor supply thesis). We test the labor supply thesis using a systematic content analysis of 370 press releases issued from 2002 to 2017 and find evidence of moderate employer support for more labor-activating social policies and less labor-protective social policies. Moreover, the analysis shows a decline in preference heterogeneity, with the positions of the four German employer associations converging toward the end of the period analyzed. Our findings have theoretical and methodological implications: First, they point to the relevance of labor supply as a source of employers’ social policy preferences. Second, they point to the need for a more systematic measurement of employer policy positions to be able to compare positions accurately.
受资本主义多样性(VoC)方法启发的研究表明,在协调的市场经济中,一些雇主协会支持公共社会政策,鼓励劳动力投资于公司和行业特定技能(VoC论文)。然而,VoC理论仍有争议。我们提出并评估了另一种基于雇主对保护劳动力供应的兴趣的论文(劳动力供应论文)。我们对2002年至2017年发布的370份新闻稿进行了系统的内容分析,并对劳动力供给理论进行了检验,发现雇主对更多激活劳动力的社会政策和更少保护劳动力的社会政策的支持程度适中。此外,分析显示偏好异质性有所下降,四个德国雇主协会的立场在分析期结束时趋于一致。我们的研究结果具有理论和方法意义:首先,它们指出了劳动力供给作为雇主社会政策偏好来源的相关性。其次,他们指出,需要对雇主政策职位进行更系统的衡量,以便能够准确地比较职位。
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引用次数: 0
Federal Climate Policy Successes: Co-benefits, Business Acceptance, and Partisan Politics 联邦气候政策的成功:共同利益、商业接受和党派政治
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1017/bap.2023.21
R. Karapin, D. Vogel
While most literature on federal climate change policies has focused on failures to adopt broad policies, this article describes and explains successes in two important sectors. Regulations to improve the fuel economy of motor vehicles and efficiency standards for appliances and equipment have produced substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, although they largely have other goals and hence can be considered implicit climate policies. We synthesize the existing literature with our analyses of case studies to offer three explanations for the adoption of effective policies in these two sectors. First, the policies delivered politically popular co-benefits, such as reducing consumers’ energy bills, enhancing energy security, and promoting public health. Second, they gained business acceptance because they were narrow in their scope, avoided long-term economic costs, and helped industry cope with state-level regulations; industry often strategically tried to influence these policies rather than resist them. Third, the legislation that initiated and expanded these policies received bipartisan support, which was aided by co-benefits and business acceptance; more recently, these laws have been strengthened through the actions of Democratic administrations. We conclude by comparing these policy areas to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
虽然大多数关于联邦气候变化政策的文献都集中在采取广泛政策的失败上,但本文描述并解释了两个重要部门的成功。提高机动车辆燃油经济性和电器设备效率标准的法规大大减少了温室气体排放,尽管它们在很大程度上有其他目标,因此可以被视为隐含的气候政策。我们将现有文献与我们的案例分析综合起来,为这两个部门采取有效政策提供三种解释。首先,这些政策带来了政治上受欢迎的共同利益,例如减少消费者的能源账单,加强能源安全和促进公共健康。其次,由于范围狭窄,避免了长期的经济成本,并帮助行业应对国家层面的监管,因此获得了企业的认可;产业界往往在战略上试图影响这些政策,而不是抵制它们。第三,启动和扩大这些政策的立法得到了两党的支持,这得益于共同利益和企业的接受;最近,这些法律通过民主党政府的行动得到了加强。最后,我们将这些政策领域与2022年通过的《通货膨胀削减法案》进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
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