Emerging Themes in Epidemiology最新文献

The risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus spreading globally is worrying, given the annual mass gathering of the Hajj and the year-long influx of pilgrims undertaking the Umrah. Based on the incidence in Saudi Arabia since June 2012, the most likely scenario given recent pilgrim numbers is estimated to be one case per Hajj, and three Umrah pilgrims per year, but which could plausibly reach seven and ten pilgrims respectively. In addition to the 2015 Hajj, national surveillance systems should be on the alert for the low but long-lasting risk of infected pilgrims returning from the Umrah throughout the year.

Background: Uptake of family planning services in Pakistan has remained slow over the past decade despite a rapid increase in availability and awareness, indicating that social barriers may be preventing uptake. Social barriers such as opposition by family members have largely been studied qualitatively; there is a lack of quantitative evidence about the effect of different family members' opposition on women's intention to use contraceptives. The objective of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effect of family members' opposition to family planning on intention to use contraception amongst poor women in Pakistan who have physical access to family planning services.

Methods: An unmatched case control study (nested within a larger cohort study) was conducted in two public hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare risk factors between women that were not intending to use any contraceptive methods in the future (cases) and women that were planning to use contraceptive methods (controls).

Results: 248 cases and 496 controls were included in the study. Negative contraceptive intent was associated with no knowledge of contraception (AOR = 3.79 [2.43-5.90]; p < 0.001), husband's opposition (AOR = 21.87 [13.21-36.21]; p < 0.001) and mother-in-law's opposition (AOR = 4.06 [1.77-9.30]; p < 0.001).

Conclusions: This study is the first to quantitatively assess the effect of opposition by different family members on women's contraceptive intent in Pakistan. Our results indicate that of all family members, husband's opposition has the strongest effect on women's intention to use contraception, even when the women have knowledge of and physical access to family planning services.

Background: There is increasing evidence that childhood vaccines have effects that extend beyond their target disease. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of routine childhood vaccines on bacterial carriage in the nasopharynx.

Methods: A cohort of children from rural Gambia was recruited at birth and followed up for one year. Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken immediately after birth, every two weeks for the first six months and then every other month. The presence of bacteria in the nasopharynx (Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus) was compared before and after the administration of DTP-Hib-HepB and measles-yellow fever vaccines.

Results: A total of 1,779 nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 136 children for whom vaccination data were available. The prevalence of bacterial carriage was high: 82.2% S. pneumoniae, 30.6%, S.aureus, 27.8% H. influenzae. Carriage of H. influenzae (OR = 0.36; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.99) and S. pneumoniae (OR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.90) were significantly reduced after measles-yellow fever vaccination; while DTP-Hib-HepB had no effect on bacterial carriage.

Conclusions: Nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage is unaffected by DTP-Hib-HepB vaccination and reduced after measles-yellow fever vaccination.

Aging societies worldwide propose a significant challenge to the model and organisation of the delivery of healthcare services. In developing countries, communicable and non-communicable diseases are affecting how the ageing population access healthcare; this could be due to varying reasons such as geographical barriers, limited financial support and poor literacy. New information and communication technology, such as eHealth have the potential to improve access to healthcare, information exchange and improving public and personalised medicine for elderly groups. In this article we will first frame the context of information and communication technologies in light of an aging landscape. We will also discuss the problems related to implementing the needed infrastructure for uptake of new technology, with particular emphasis on developing countries. In so doing, we highlight areas where newer technologies can serve as promising tools or vehicles to address health and healthcare-related gaps and needs of elderly people living in resource-constrained settings.

Background: Tuberculosis is a major disease worldwide and most research focus on risk factors for adults, although there is a marked adolescent peak in incidence. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for tuberculosis in children aged 7 to 19.

Methods: A case control study matched by age with 169 cases and 477 controls. The study population consisted of adolescents and older children from Recife, Brazil. Cases were individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis in the control programme and controls were selected in the neighborhood of cases. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify risk factors.

Results: Cigarette smoking increased by 50% the risk of tuberculosis but that this was not statistically significant (OR = 1.6). Other risk factors were sleeping in the same house as a case of tuberculosis (OR = 31.6), living in a house with no piped water (OR = 7.7) (probably as a proxy for bad living conditions), illiteracy (OR = 3.7) and male sex (OR = 1.8). The increase in risk with living in houses with no piped water was much more marked in males. The proportion of cases of tuberculosis attributed to contact with someone with TB was 38% and to illiteracy, lack of piped water and smoking, 20%.

Conclusion: Household contact with tuberculosis, social factors and male sex play the biggest role in determining risk of TB disease among children and adolescents in the study. We recommend further research on the relationship of cigarette smoking on tuberculosis in adolescents, and on whether the sex differentials are more marked in bad living conditions. Separate studies should be conducted in older children and in adolescents.

Though it has been a focus of the country's public health surveillance systems since the 1950s, schistosomiasis represents an ongoing public health challenge in China. Parallel, schistosomiasis-specific surveillance systems have been essential to China's decades-long campaign to reduce the prevalence of the disease, and have contributed to the successful elimination in five of China's twelve historically endemic provinces, and to the achievement of morbidity and transmission control in the other seven. More recently, an ambitious goal of achieving nation-wide transmission interruption by 2020 has been proposed. This paper details how schistosomiasis surveillance systems have been structured and restructured within China's evolving public health system, and how parallel surveillance activities have provided an information system that has been integral to the characterization of, response to, and control of the disease. With the ongoing threat of re-emergence of schistosomiasis in areas previously considered to have achieved transmission control, a critical examination of China's current surveillance capabilities is needed to direct future investments in health information systems and to enable improved coordination between systems in support of ongoing control. Lessons drawn from China's experience are applied to the current global movement to reduce the burden of helminthiases, where surveillance capacity based on improved diagnostics is urgently needed.

The validity of ecological studies in epidemiology for inferring causal relationships has been widely challenged as observed associations could be biased by the Ecological Fallacy. We reconsider the important design components of ecological studies, and discuss the conditions that may lead to spurious associations. Ecological associations are useful and valid when the ecological exposures can be interpreted as Instrumental Variables. A suitable example may be a time series analysis of environmental pollution (e.g. particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 micrometres; PM10) and health outcomes (e.g. hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction) as environmental pollution levels are a cause of individual exposure levels and not just an aggregate measurement. Ecological exposures may also be employed in situations (perhaps rare) where individual exposures are known but their associations with health outcomes are confounded by unknown or unquantifiable factors. Ecological associations have a notorious reputation in epidemiology and individualistic associations are considered superior to ecological associations because of the "ecological fallacy". We have argued that this is incorrect in situations in which ecological or aggregate exposures can serve as an instrumental variable and associations between individual exposure and outcome are likely to be confounded by unmeasured variables.

Background: In the literature, different shapes of associations have been found between body mass index (BMI) and mortality and some of the findings were opposite to each other. The association of BMI and mortality in a single cohort has been found to be dynamic that can lead to different findings under different settings. The identified dynamic features were consistent with the heterogeneity in the literature. It is meaningful to find out whether such dynamic associations exist in other populations.

Methods: Data of six different cohorts were used for analysis and comparison. The proportional hazards assumptions for BMI in Cox models were tested to identify dynamic associations in each cohort. Time-dependent covariates Cox model was used to model the association of BMI and mortality risk as functions of follow-up time. The Cox model was applied to the pooled data with survival times censored at 5 to 40 years to show the potential impact of the dynamic association on traditional Meta-analysis.

Results and discussion: Dynamic associations were identified in six models (4 for men and 2 for women), four of which showed the same changing pattern: the elevated mortality risk for low BMI decreased while that for high BMI increased with follow-up time. When the Cox model was applied to the pooled data excluding the largest and also the shortest cohort, low BMI was but high BMI was not associated with high mortality for men with censoring at 5 years but the association for low BMI became weaker and that for high BMI became much stronger when censoring time was at 40 years. The dynamic association indicated that shorter studies tend to obtain inverse associations between BMI and mortality while longer studies tend to obtain J-shaped associations.

Conclusions: Different or even opposite results about body weight and mortality in the literature may be in part due to the underlying dynamic association of BMI and mortality. The dynamic features need to be taken into consideration in future studies.

Background: In May 2014, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, with closely related viral genomes, was diagnosed in two Dutch residents, returning from a pilgrimage to Medina and Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). These patients travelled with a group of 29 other Dutch travellers. We conducted an epidemiological assessment of the travel group to identify likely source(s) of infection and presence of potential risk factors.

Methods: All travellers, including the two cases, completed a questionnaire focussing on potential human, animal and food exposures to MERS-CoV. The questionnaire was modified from the WHO MERS-CoV questionnaire, taking into account the specific route and activities of the travel group.

Results: Twelve non-cases drank unpasteurized camel milk and had contact with camels. Most travellers, including one of the two patients (Case 1), visited local markets, where six of them consumed fruits. Two travellers, including Case 1, were exposed to coughing patients when visiting a hospital in Medina. Four travellers, including Case 1, visited two hospitals in Mecca. All travellers had been in contact with Case 1 while he was sick, with initially non-respiratory complaints. The cases were found to be older than the other travellers and both had co-morbidities.

Conclusions: This epidemiological study revealed the complexity of MERS-CoV outbreak investigations with multiple potential exposures to MERS-CoV reported such as healthcare visits, camel exposure, and exposure to untreated food products. Exposure to MERS-CoV during a hospital visit is considered a likely source of infection for Case 1 but not for Case 2. For Case 2, the most likely source could not be determined. Exposure to MERS-CoV via direct contact with animals or dairy products seems unlikely for the two Dutch cases. Furthermore, exposure to a common but still unidentified source cannot be ruled out. More comprehensive research into sources of infection in the Arabian Peninsula is needed to strengthen and specify the prevention of MERS-CoV infections.

Background: PERIODIC OR CYCLIC DATA OF KNOWN PERIODICITY ARE FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH: for instance, seasonality provides a useful experiment of nature while diurnal rhythms play an important role in endocrine secretion. There is, however, little consensus on how to analysis these data and less still on how to measure association or effect size for the often complex patterns seen.

Results: A simple statistic, readily derived from Fourier regression models, provides a readily-understood measure cyclic variation in a wide variety of situations.

Conclusion: The coefficient of cyclic variation or similar statistics derived from the variance of a Fourier series could provide a universal means of summarising the magnitude of periodic variation.