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Still flying blind after all these years: The Federal Reserve's continuing experiments with unobservables 这么多年过去了,仍在盲目飞行:美联储对非观测变量的持续试验
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00028
D. Papadimitriou, L. R. Wray
In 1994, we examined the Fed's abandonment of monetary targets in favor of “omens of impending inflation” (Papadimitriou – Wray 1994). Here we are, three decades later, and the Fed is still fumbling around with unobservable indicators of inflation in its quest to target stable prices. In what follows, we examine the evolution of the Fed's thought and practice over the past three decades, a period in which the Fed has increasingly turned to unobservable indicators that are supposed to predict inflation and unobservable tools that are supposed to fight inflation. We will show that our criticisms have also been raised by the Fed's own members and research staff. Moreover, we suggest that the Fed has far less control over inflation than is presumed, and, at worst, might have the whole inflation-fighting strategy backwards. We conclude with an assessment of the latest round of rate hikes.
1994 年,我们研究了美联储放弃货币目标,转而采用 "即将发生通货膨胀的预兆"(Papadimitriou - Wray 1994)。三十年后的今天,美联储在寻求稳定物价目标的过程中,仍在摸索不可观测的通胀指标。在接下来的文章中,我们将考察美联储在过去三十年中的思想和实践的演变,在这三十年中,美联储越来越多地使用不可观察的指标来预测通胀,使用不可观察的工具来对抗通胀。我们将表明,美联储自己的成员和研究人员也提出了我们的批评。此外,我们认为,美联储对通胀的控制力远不如人们想象的那么强,最坏的情况是,美联储可能把整个对抗通胀的战略弄反了。最后,我们对最新一轮加息进行了评估。
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引用次数: 3
Energy transitions research: An assessment methodology 能源转型研究:评估方法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00027
Karen Gabriela Liñán Segura
Market rules, changes in regulations for users and producers, technological innovation and economic development are important factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore, explaining energy transitions requires a multidisciplinary insight to investigate these factors. The study of energy transitions faces an analytical and methodological challenge, particularly in communicating trends shaping the energy systems in developing economies. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. In this sense, this paper proposes a new and simple methodological path to assess variables and theories. It conceptualizes energy transitions as a co-evolution of two types of systems: system innovation with its roots in evolutionary, institutional economics, science and technology studies (STS); and energy systems with its roots in neoclassical and evolutionary economics. From how to conduct a systematic literature review, to how best integrate theories and the analytical framework in which key questions can be answered, the paper elevates the role of political science, as policies play a prominent role in shaping energy transitions. This paper responds to those who have pointed out that the political economy of energy transitions is a vastly understudied area.
市场规则、针对用户和生产者的法规变化、技术创新和经济发展是影响能源转型的重要因素。因此,解释能源转型需要多学科的洞察力来研究这些因素。能源转型研究面临着分析和方法上的挑战,特别是在交流影响发展中经济体能源系统的趋势方面。现有文献在确定这些学科方面并不一致,也没有提出如何将它们结合起来。从这个意义上讲,本文提出了一种新的、简单的方法论途径来评估变量和理论。本文将能源转型概念化为两类系统的共同演化:植根于进化论、制度经济学、科学与技术研究(STS)的系统创新;植根于新古典经济学和进化经济学的能源系统。从如何进行系统的文献综述,到如何最好地整合理论和分析框架以回答关键问题,本文提升了政治学的作用,因为政策在塑造能源转型方面发挥着突出作用。有人指出,能源转型的政治经济学是一个研究严重不足的领域,本文正是对这一观点的回应。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the third mission of European Universities: A systematic literature review 衡量欧洲大学的第三使命:系统文献综述
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00030
Sirine Haj Taieb
In recent years, policymakers and academics have shown interest in understanding how universities could drive regional innovation. Universities are not solely focusing on research and education as their primary missions but are also asked to participate in the development of their regions. This has compelled universities to forge what is called a third mission, encompassing all social and economic activities of universities. Several attempts have been made to evaluate this concept, aiming to highlight the evolving role of universities and their relevance to policy and society. In this vein, this paper showcases existing attempts that aim to measure the impact of the third mission in European universities. This study consists of a systematic literature review studying journal articles published between 2001 and 2021. The purpose of this paper is to enumerate the existing measurements of the third mission and identify the different tensions related to it. This study shows that the literature encompasses three approaches for assessing the third mission. First, some studies incorporated the third mission into the overall evaluation of university performance. Second, other investigations aimed to capture this concept as a whole. Finally, several studies evaluated individual dimensions of the third mission independently.
近年来,政策制定者和学术界对了解大学如何推动地区创新表现出浓厚的兴趣。大学不再仅仅把研究和教育作为主要使命,还被要求参与所在地区的发展。这迫使大学制定所谓的第三项使命,其中包括大学的所有社会和经济活动。对这一概念的评估已经进行了多次尝试,旨在强调大学不断演变的作用及其与政策和社会的相关性。本着这一精神,本文展示了旨在衡量欧洲大学第三使命影响的现有尝试。本研究对 2001 至 2021 年间发表的期刊论文进行了系统的文献综述。本文的目的是列举第三使命的现有衡量标准,并确定与之相关的不同紧张关系。本研究表明,文献包含三种评估第三使命的方法。首先,一些研究将第三使命纳入了对大学绩效的整体评估。其次,其他调查旨在从整体上把握这一概念。最后,有几项研究单独评估了第三使命的各个层面。
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引用次数: 0
Financial deepening on income inequality: A quantitative meta-analysis study 金融深化对收入不平等的影响:定量荟萃分析研究
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-29 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00026
Mbona Nokulunga
There exists a vast empirical literature on Financial Sector Development (FSD) and the income inequality nexus; however, it lacks consensus. To study this, 24 studies with 87 regression estimates on financial institution depth and income inequality were collected. This paper used the most common method of economic meta-analysis, the Partial Correlation Coefficient (PCC), to answer the question: What is the magnitude and impact, if any, of financial institution depth on income inequality? In addition, a multivariate meta-regression model was used to find moderator variables that produced mixed results in the literature. The results show that the global average comovement of financial institution depth (domestic credit) on income inequality is very small but positive; suggesting that growth in domestic credit may widen income inequality. The positive correlation between domestic credit and income inequality highlights how financial institutions use household income and collateral as a signal when deciding on credit applications. Finally, the multivariate regression results suggest that the present heterogeneity within the literature stems from different methodologies and control variables included in the econometric models, and panel studies that mix countries with heterogeneous characteristics. These suggest that different components of FSD may impact income inequality differently.
关于金融部门发展(FSD)和收入不平等关系的实证文献很多,但缺乏共识。为了对此进行研究,本文收集了 24 项研究的 87 个关于金融机构深度和收入不平等的回归估计值。本文采用了最常用的经济荟萃分析方法--部分相关系数(PCC)来回答这个问题:金融机构深度对收入不平等的影响(如果有的话)有多大?此外,还使用了多元元回归模型来寻找在文献中产生混合结果的调节变量。结果显示,金融机构深度(国内信贷)对收入不平等的全球平均相关性非常小,但却是正的;这表明国内信贷的增长可能会扩大收入不平等。国内信贷与收入不平等之间的正相关性凸显了金融机构在决定信贷申请时是如何利用家庭收入和抵押品作为信号的。最后,多元回归结果表明,目前文献中存在的异质性源于计量经济学模型中包含的不同方法和控制变量,以及混合了具有异质性特征的国家的面板研究。这表明,可持续发展金融服务的不同组成部分可能会对收入不平等产生不同的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Success factors of real estate crowdfunding projects: Evidence from Spain 房地产众筹项目的成功因素:来自西班牙的证据
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00025
Aliaksandra Badrova, Marija Ņečiporuka, Á. Lublóy
Real estate crowdfunding is a relatively new alternative financing and investing method. This research aims to identify factors which might increase investors' willingness to participate in real estate crowdfunding campaigns. We analyse 195 lending-based real estate crowdfunding campaigns from four Spanish platforms. Project success is measured by duration, i.e. the time required to reach the funding target. We assess the impact of the funding target, the annual return, the loan duration, several risk-related metrics and the minimum investment amount. We find that the higher the funding target and the minimum investment amount, the longer it takes to reach the target. We document that investors prefer projects where the maturity of the loan is shorter. We also find that construction-type projects reach the funding target faster than other type of fundraising goals. At the same time, we do not find any association between the annual return or risk-related metrics and project success. To assure successful fundraising, real estate crowdfunding platforms should prioritize those real estate projects which are highly popular among investors (i.e. construction-type projects with short maturity). Real estate developers, in turn, should crowdfund projects which are demanded by the crowdinvestors and use their traditional financing methods for the remaining projects.
房地产众筹是一种相对较新的另类融资和投资方式。本研究旨在找出可能增加投资者参与房地产众筹活动意愿的因素。我们分析了来自四个西班牙平台的195个基于贷款的房地产众筹活动。项目的成功是通过持续时间来衡量的,即达到融资目标所需的时间。我们评估融资目标、年度回报、贷款期限、几个风险相关指标和最低投资额的影响。我们发现,融资目标和最低投资额越高,达到目标所需的时间越长。我们记录了投资者更喜欢贷款期限较短的项目。我们还发现,建设类项目比其他类型的融资目标更快达到融资目标。同时,我们没有发现年度回报或风险相关指标与项目成功之间的任何关联。为了保证融资成功,房地产众筹平台应该优先选择受投资者欢迎的房地产项目(即期限较短的建设类项目)。房地产开发商则对众筹者要求的项目进行众筹,对剩余的项目使用传统的融资方式。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating wartime communications: multinational corporations in the Russia-Ukraine war 战时通信导航:俄乌战争中的跨国公司
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00024
Volodymyr Kulikov, Mykhaylo Simanovskyy, Abigail Eichenberg, Ksenija Angelina Braese
Abstract This article explores the communication strategies of multinational corporations in response to the Russo-Ukrainian War and the public pressure to divest from the Russian domestic market. By content analyzing official statements from the top 50 revenue-generating multinational corporations in Russia, the article identifies patterns in corporate narratives about the war, their actions and concerns, and potential solutions. The findings reveal that most companies declare scaling down their presence in Russia while maintaining certain basic obligations, prioritizing employee safety, and expressing concerns about the global economy. While few explicitly condemn Russia's aggression, many adopt neutral language to avoid naming Russia as the aggressor. Corporations emphasize the importance of diplomacy, adherence to international law, and the pursuit of peace, but often avoid proposing concrete solutions. Despite variations across industries, countries of origin, and decisions to stay or leave Russia, the differences in statements were not significant. The uniformity of corporate statements and evidence that companies frequently do not follow their declared promises suggest potential “bluewashing” – making vague or false claims of social responsibility or anti-war stances to improve their public image. These findings emphasize the need for multinational corporations to develop sincere and original wartime communication strategies.
摘要:本文探讨了跨国公司在应对俄乌战争和从俄罗斯国内市场撤资的公众压力时的传播策略。通过对俄罗斯收入最高的50家跨国公司的官方声明进行内容分析,本文确定了公司对战争的叙述模式,他们的行动和担忧,以及潜在的解决方案。调查结果显示,大多数公司宣布缩减在俄罗斯的业务,同时保持某些基本义务,优先考虑员工安全,并表达对全球经济的担忧。虽然很少有人明确谴责俄罗斯的侵略行为,但许多人采用中立的语言,避免将俄罗斯称为侵略者。企业强调外交、遵守国际法和追求和平的重要性,但往往避免提出具体的解决方案。尽管各行业、原籍国和留在或离开俄罗斯的决定存在差异,但声明的差异并不显著。企业声明的一致性,以及有证据表明,企业经常不遵守他们所宣称的承诺,都暗示着潜在的“洗蓝”——对社会责任或反战立场做出模糊或虚假的声明,以改善他们的公众形象。这些发现强调了跨国公司发展真诚和原创的战时沟通策略的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking the key dimensions of organizational agility: A systematic literature review on leadership, structural and cultural antecedents 解锁组织敏捷性的关键维度:关于领导力、结构和文化前因的系统文献综述
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00023
Balázs Vaszkun, Éva Sziráki
Abstract This paper presents the first comprehensive systematic literature review of articles from the last five years published on enterprise-scaled agility and offers practical insights for organisations looking to become more agile. The management literature on agile structures is still relatively scarce and fragmented, but emerging. Our results highlight the characteristics, advantages and tensions created by agility at the organisational level, and give insight for executives to support their decisions on organisational design. By examining the structural, cultural, and leadership antecedents that are necessary for success, this paper contributes to the ongoing debate about agile organisations. The concept of ‘Agility Forest’ proposed here will contribute to the better understanding of the connections between structure, culture, and leadership.
本文对过去五年来发表的企业级敏捷性的文章进行了首次全面系统的文献综述,并为希望变得更加敏捷的组织提供了实用的见解。关于敏捷结构的管理文献仍然相对稀缺和分散,但正在兴起。我们的研究结果突出了敏捷性在组织层面上产生的特征、优势和紧张关系,并为高管提供了支持其组织设计决策的见解。通过研究成功所必需的结构、文化和领导因素,这篇论文为关于敏捷组织的持续辩论做出了贡献。这里提出的“敏捷森林”概念将有助于更好地理解结构、文化和领导力之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Confucianism: Ancient ideology or driving force of the future? A scoping review on the effect of Confucian culture on innovation 儒家:古老的思想还是未来的动力?儒家文化对创新的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00021
Sára Koczkás
Abstract This paper explores the ambiguous relationship between Confucian culture and innovation based on the scholarly literature. Applying a scoping review approach, the purpose of the literature review is to uncover the reasons behind the ambiguities of empirical research results and conceptualizations of how Confucianism affects innovation on the individual and on the organizational level. The paper builds on the assumption that the different operationalizations of Confucian culture are behind these contradictions. Since Confucianism is an ideology that has developed for over 2000 years, and even its most often cited virtues and principles are quite heterogenous, approaches to its operationalization in the field of management are also diverse. The results of the literature review indicate that different approaches to Confucian culture indeed show homogeneity in the conceptualization of the Confucianism-innovation relationship. Virtues and principles related to rigid hierarchies and great power distance have a detrimental effect, while others a rather positive one. Therefore, the paper argues that a more specific denomination of cultural factors should be necessary to avoid biased and unspecified results in both theoretical and empirical approaches.
摘要本文以学术文献为基础,探讨儒家文化与创新之间的模糊关系。运用范围回顾的方法,文献回顾的目的是揭示实证研究结果的模糊性背后的原因,以及儒家思想如何影响个人和组织层面的创新。本文的基础假设是,这些矛盾的背后是儒家文化的不同运作方式。由于儒家思想是一种发展了2000多年的意识形态,即使是最常被引用的美德和原则也是相当异质的,因此在管理领域实施它的方法也是多种多样的。文献综述的结果表明,不同的儒家文化研究方法在儒学与创新关系的概念化上确实表现出同质性。与等级森严和权力距离大有关的美德和原则对人有不利的影响,而另一些则有积极的影响。因此,本文认为有必要对文化因素进行更具体的命名,以避免理论和实证方法中的偏差和未明确的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Students' willingness to share knowledge in higher education in Hungary 匈牙利学生分享高等教育知识的意愿
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00022
Tímea Juhász, Gyöngyi Csongrádi, Arnold Tóth
Abstract Given that knowledge is one of the most important human resource values, the manner of its acquisition, transfer and development within an organisation is crucial. It should come as no surprise that given the link between knowledge acquisition and development in most spheres, several individuals wish to restrict their knowledge to themselves, as it gives them value in the labour market. Yet, if we inculcate knowledge sharing habits among individuals at an early age, so that they not only impart but also acquire knowledge through knowledge transfer, information acquisition can become a mutually beneficial process for both providers and acquirers. In this study, we conducted a survey among university students in Hungary to investigate how open they are about sharing their knowledge with each other and what they expect from their peers in exchange for the information they have. Data analyses showed that students' willingness to transfer knowledge and their expectations in return for the knowledge transferred are greatly influenced by their mutual relationships, but the strength of these relationships impact the rewards they expect for knowledge transfer.
鉴于知识是最重要的人力资源价值之一,知识在组织内的获取、转移和发展方式至关重要。鉴于大多数领域的知识获取与发展之间的联系,一些人希望将他们的知识局限于自己,因为这使他们在劳动力市场上具有价值,这应该不足为奇。然而,如果我们从小就灌输个人的知识共享习惯,使他们不仅传授知识,而且通过知识转移获得知识,那么信息获取可以成为一个对提供者和获取者都有利的过程。在这项研究中,我们在匈牙利的大学生中进行了一项调查,调查他们对彼此分享知识的开放程度,以及他们对同龄人交换信息的期望。数据分析表明,学生之间的相互关系对学生的知识转移意愿和知识转移回报的期望有很大的影响,但这种关系的强弱影响了学生对知识转移回报的期望。
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引用次数: 0
Family firms in the maelstrom of international market entry and innovation – Can socio-emotional wealth (SEW) and entrepreneurial orientation (EO) be reconciled? 国际市场进入与创新漩涡中的家族企业——社会情感财富(SEW)与创业导向(EO)能否调和?
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1556/204.2023.00019
Gyula Márton Szabó
Abstract I examine the relationship between the internationalisation of family firms and innovation. After the review of the relevant literature, I group together the narrow research topics addressed in the literature, which largely confirm the positive relationship between the two categories. Moreover, I demonstrate a theoretical framework which, according to the literature, can be implemented to put socio-emotional welfare and entrepreneurial orientation, which are restraining the internationalisation of family firms, on a common path, so that they can contribute to enhancing the innovative and international performance of family firms in a mutually supportive way.
摘要本文研究了家族企业国际化与创新之间的关系。在回顾了相关文献后,我将文献中涉及的狭窄研究主题组合在一起,这在很大程度上证实了这两类之间的正相关关系。此外,我展示了一个理论框架,根据文献,可以实施将社会情感福利和创业导向,这是制约家族企业国际化的共同路径,使他们能够促进家族企业的创新和国际绩效的相互支持的方式。
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引用次数: 0
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