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Negotiating Trade in Services with China from the Uruguayan Perspective 乌拉圭视角下的对华服务贸易谈判
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.64688
Ignacio Bartesaghi, G. Gari, Natalia Melgar
We focus on trade in services, and we aim at assessing the concessions made by China when negotiating trade agreements. Additionally, we shed light on the opportunities that Uruguay may have in exporting services to China in case of signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The debate on this issue started in 2016 when Uruguayan President Vázquez visited China and with Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the possibility of signing a FTA. Since then, opposing arguments have been put forward. Unfortunately, the lack of bilateral information on trade in services is a limitation for this kind of studies. It is highlighted that there will be additional large gains which would emerge from trade in goods, cooperation or investments.
我们关注服务贸易,旨在评估中国在贸易协定谈判中做出的让步。此外,我们还阐明了乌拉圭在签署自由贸易协定(FTA)的情况下可能向中国出口服务的机会。从那时起,反对的观点就出现了。不幸的是,缺乏关于服务贸易的双边资料是这类研究的一个限制。报告强调,货物贸易、合作或投资将带来额外的巨大收益。
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引用次数: 0
Gender Impact of Interregional Trade 区域间贸易的性别影响
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.65122
C. Pavese
After two decades of negotiations, the European Union (EU) and Mercosur celebrated a new Association Agreement in 2019. Structured around three pillars (political dialogue, cooperation, and trade), the deal is still pending ratification but has raised strong criticism. Most concerns address the effect of trade liberalization on social and environmental agendas. This article contributes to this debate, conducting qualitative analysis on the agreement's potential impact on gender equality in the EU and Mercosur. Departing from the feminist scholarship assumption that trade has an unavoidable effect on gender, this article argues that interregional trade agreements can be a helpful policy instrument to promote gender equality. Nevertheless, this research demonstrates that, so far, the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement has neglected this opportunity. The provisional text does not reflect a gender mainstreaming approach, lacking the appropriate mechanisms to manage its effects on women. As a result, the new interregional trade liberalization instrument risks widening gender inequality in both regions. Nevertheless, this research demonstrates that, so far, the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement has neglected this opportunity. The provisional text does not reflect a gender mainstreaming approach, lacking the appropriate mechanisms to manage its effects on women. As a result, the new interregional trade liberalization instrument risks widening gender inequality in both regions.
经过20年的谈判,欧盟和南方共同市场在2019年庆祝了一项新的联系国协定。围绕三大支柱(政治对话、合作、贸易)构建的韩美fta目前仍有待批准,但受到了强烈的批评。大多数问题涉及贸易自由化对社会和环境议程的影响。本文对该协议对欧盟和南方共同市场性别平等的潜在影响进行了定性分析,为这场辩论做出了贡献。从女权主义学者认为贸易对性别有不可避免的影响的假设出发,本文认为区域间贸易协定可以成为促进性别平等的有益政策工具。然而,本研究表明,到目前为止,欧盟-南方共同市场联合协定忽视了这一机会。临时案文没有反映将性别问题纳入主流的办法,缺乏适当的机制来管理其对妇女的影响。因此,新的区域间贸易自由化工具有可能扩大这两个区域的性别不平等。然而,本研究表明,到目前为止,欧盟-南方共同市场联合协定忽视了这一机会。临时案文没有反映将性别问题纳入主流的办法,缺乏适当的机制来管理其对妇女的影响。因此,新的区域间贸易自由化工具有可能扩大这两个区域的性别不平等。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Ethiopia 外国直接投资对埃塞俄比亚经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.61853
Abdillahi Nedif Muse, Saidatulakmal Mohd
This article analyses the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Ethiopia’s economic growth. For this purpose, it uses Vector Autoregressions (VARs) model for the period comprised by years 1981-2017. It finds that FDI had a significant positive impact on Ethiopia’s economic growth for both the short and long-run periods. Adequate human capital and stable macroeconomic envirornment have catalysed the contribution of FDI to economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation and government consumption exerted a negative and significant effects on economic growth during the period of interest. Moreover, the study reveals that there is no causal relationship between FDI and economic development. Ethiopia needs to open up the economy and restructure the financial sector to attract foreign multinational companies (MNC), especially in the manufacturing and agro-industry sectors. Human capital investment should be strength to absorb more foreign direct investment and transform the agricultural-based economy to a modern one. Effective budgeting system and prioritisation of government consumption will support a more rapidly growing economy.
本文分析了外商直接投资(FDI)对埃塞俄比亚经济增长的影响。为此,它使用向量自回归(var)模型对1981-2017年组成的时期进行分析。研究发现,FDI对埃塞俄比亚短期和长期经济增长都有显著的积极影响。充足的人力资本和稳定的宏观经济环境促进了外国直接投资对经济增长的贡献。利息期固定资本形成总额和政府消费对经济增长有显著的负向影响。此外,研究表明FDI与经济发展之间不存在因果关系。埃塞俄比亚需要开放经济,重组金融部门,以吸引外国跨国公司(MNC),特别是在制造业和农用工业部门。人力资本投资应该成为吸收更多外国直接投资的力量,实现农业经济向现代经济的转变。有效的预算制度和政府消费的优先次序将支持经济更快增长。
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引用次数: 6
El Centro de Asesoría Legal en Asuntos de la OMC (ACWL) 世贸组织事务法律咨询中心(ACWL)
Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.64746
Fernando Piérola-Castro, Niall Meagher, Leah Buencamino
El ACWL se creó hace 20 años para atenuar a las desigualdades en recursos humanos y financieros que impedían a algunos miembros de la OMC beneficiarse plenamente de las ventajas que ofrece el sistema comercial multilateral. La creación del ACWL se basó en la idea de que la credibilidad y la aceptabilidad del sistema sólo pueden garantizarse si todos los miembros pueden participar eficazmente. Este artículo explica cómo el ACWL proporciona asistencia jurídica accesible a través de sus tres servicios: asesoramiento jurídico, asistencia en los procedimientos de solución de diferencias de la OMC y capacitación. Evalúa en qué medida estos servicios han permitido a los países que pueden optar a los servicios del ACWL comprender mejor cómo defender sus derechos y cumplir sus obligaciones en virtud de los Acuerdos de la OMC. Por último, el documento examina los retos a los que se enfrenta el ACWL y sus perspectivas de futuro.
ACWL成立于20年前,旨在缓解人力和财力方面的不平等,这种不平等阻碍了一些世贸组织成员充分利用多边贸易体制的优势。ACWL的建立是基于这样一种想法:只有所有成员都能有效参与,才能保证该系统的可信性和可接受性。本文解释了ACWL如何通过其三项服务提供可获得的法律援助:法律咨询、wto争端解决程序援助和培训。评估这些服务在多大程度上使有资格获得ACWL服务的国家更好地了解如何捍卫其权利和履行其在wto协议下的义务。最后,本文探讨了ACWL面临的挑战及其未来前景。
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引用次数: 0
A Historical Overview of the 21st-Century Protectionism 21世纪贸易保护主义的历史回顾
Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.64188
Nicolás Albertoni
The main goal of this paper is to situate current trade policy debates in a proper historical context by analyzing the main trade policy milestones of the 21st-century. It does not attempt to offer an extensive historical overview of trade policy, which has been done masterfully by other scholars, but to analyze the events that have led to a stagnation of the multilateral trade system and rising protectionism. This paper begins with the winding road of trade liberalization since World War II, briefly tracing how we arrived from the early stages of the Bretton Wood System to the current moment of stagnation of the multilateral system and rising protectionism. It then turns to four key events to understand the current new reality: China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 to 2009, the trade war between the United States and China, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in trade policy dynamics. It concludes with some final comments on the relevance of understanding current trade debates from a historical perspective.
本文的主要目标是通过分析21世纪的主要贸易政策里程碑,将当前的贸易政策辩论置于适当的历史背景下。它并不试图对贸易政策进行广泛的历史概述(其他学者已经做得很出色),而是分析导致多边贸易体系停滞和保护主义抬头的事件。本文从第二次世界大战以来贸易自由化的曲折之路开始,简要回顾了我们如何从布雷顿森林体系的早期阶段走到当前多边体系停滞不前、保护主义抬头的时刻。然后,本文转向四个关键事件来理解当前的新现实:2001年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO), 2008年至2009年的全球金融危机(GFC),中美之间的贸易战,以及COVID-19大流行对贸易政策动态的影响。最后,对从历史角度理解当前贸易辩论的相关性进行了最后的评论。
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引用次数: 0
Hacia Elevar las Relaciones Económicas entre Indonesia y Argentina a Una Etapa Superior 将印尼和阿根廷的经济关系提升到一个更高的水平
Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.60438
Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin
Este documento intenta describir y analizar formas de fortalecer y elevar las relaciones económicas bilaterales entre Indonesia y Argentina a una etapa superior. El estudio revela que las relaciones bilaterales actuales siguen estando por debajo de sus potencialidades y con una intensidad comercial relativamente baja. La baja intensidad comercial puede deberse en parte razones clásicos entre otros como la gran distancia geográfica que ocasiona altos costos de transporte; la barrera lingüística; y la falta de información, interés y de contactos interpersonales. También, las medidas proteccionistas argentinas y el alza del déficit de la balanza comercial de por la parte indonesia, son los problemas principales actuales dentro de las relaciones comerciales bilaterales. Sobre la base de la estimación de TCI, aunque las exportaciones e importaciones de ambos países tienden a ser más sustitutos, aún hay un avance muy significativo de complementariedad comercial en los últimos años. Mientras que, para el escenario bilateral de libre comercio, el estudio revela que se espera que en Indonesia y Argentina los excedentes del consumo y el comercio aumenten a raíz del TLC bilateral, pero, sí reduce los ingresos arancelarios. Con base en los resultados, se puede concluir que hay muchas oportunidades para mejorar aún más sus exportaciones en función de su mayor ventaja comparativa. El documento sugiere que reducir las medidas proteccionistas, tanto los aranceles y las barreras no arancelarias (incluido la actual regulación de licencias de importación no automáticas) y realizar Indonesia-Mercosur PTA. El estudio revela que con la eliminación de las barreras comerciales ambos países obtendrán un mayor bienestar y el cumplimiento de los objetivos de ambos países para intensificar las relaciones comerciales bilaterales.
本文试图描述和分析如何加强和提升印尼和阿根廷之间的双边经济关系到下一个阶段。研究显示,目前的双边关系仍未达到潜力,贸易强度也相对较低。商业强度低的部分原因可能是传统原因,如地理距离长,运输成本高;语言障碍;缺乏信息、兴趣和人际交往。此外,阿根廷的保护主义措施和印度尼西亚不断上升的贸易逆差是目前双边贸易关系中的主要问题。根据TCI的估计,虽然两国的进出口往往是更多的替代品,但近年来在贸易互补性方面仍有非常显著的进展。在双边自由贸易情景下,该研究显示,由于双边自由贸易协定,印尼和阿根廷的消费和贸易盈余预计将增加,但关税收入确实会减少。根据这些结果,可以得出结论,根据它们更大的比较优势,它们有很大的机会进一步提高出口。该文件建议减少保护主义措施,包括关税和非关税壁垒(包括现行的非自动进口许可证规定),并实施印尼-南方共同市场优惠贸易区。研究表明,通过消除贸易壁垒,两国将获得更大的福祉,并实现两国加强双边贸易关系的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Exchange rate volatility and its effect on intra-East Africa Community regional trade 汇率波动及其对东非共同体内部区域贸易的影响
Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.58790
Thomas Mosbei, Silas Kiprono Samoei, Clement Cheruiyot Tison, Edwin Kipyego Kipchoge
East Africa Community exchange rate volatility spiraled up when the countries adopted the Structural Adjustment Policies in early 1980s. The question that remains unanswered is whether exchange rate volatility hinders or promotes trade. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of exchange rate volatility and its effect on Intra-East Africa community regional trade. Unit root tests results indicated that some of the variables were stationary at levels and on first difference, all variables were I(1). Differenced panel data was fitted into the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model to measure volatility. Hausman test showed that the fixed effect model was appropriate exchange rate, money supply, population and foreign direct investment significantly determines intra-East Africa Community regional trade. It was concluded that exchange rate volatility is observable in the Intra-East Africa region and further, exchange rate, money supply, population, and foreign direct investment significantly influenced intra-EAC regional trade. It is recommended that EAC member states should formulate policies that ensures exchange rate stability in the region to reduce unpredictability of exchange rate. Policies should be enacted to guarantee adequate money supply and encourage foreign direct investments.
20世纪80年代初各国采取结构调整政策后,东非共同体汇率波动急剧上升。汇率波动究竟是阻碍还是促进了贸易,这个问题仍未得到解答。本研究的目的是确定汇率波动的影响及其对东非共同体区域贸易的影响。单位根检验结果表明,一些变量在水平上是平稳的,在第一次差分上,所有变量都是I(1)。差异面板数据拟合到一般自回归条件异方差模型来测量波动率。Hausman检验表明,固定效应模型表明适当的汇率、货币供应量、人口和外国直接投资显著决定东非共同体内部区域贸易。研究发现,汇率波动在东非内部区域是可以观察到的,汇率、货币供应量、人口和外国直接投资对东非内部区域贸易有显著影响。建议EAC成员国制定确保本地区汇率稳定的政策,减少汇率的不可预测性。应制定政策,保证充足的货币供应,鼓励外国直接投资。
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引用次数: 2
Algunos determinantes de la movilidad estudiantil universitaria de los países andinos 安第斯国家大学学生流动的一些决定因素
Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.57922
Alan Fairlie Reinoso
El artículo destaca la movilidad estudiantil como un eje fundamental de la internacionalización de la educación superior, y los factores que propician el flujo de estudiantes de educación superior desde países andinos hacia países desarrollados. Para ello, se estima un modelo gravitacional con el objetivo de encontrar dichos determinantes, entre los que destacan: el ingreso en el país de destino, el idioma, y las barreras regulatorias (tomando como proxi un índice de libertad económica). Esto sugiere, que convenios con países donde hay más apertura y menores regulaciones, favorecerían la movilidad. Pero, es necesario identificar otros obstáculos que deberían ser removidos, en los convenios que hagan las instituciones o las negociaciones que lideren los países.
本文强调了学生流动作为高等教育国际化的一个基本轴,以及导致高等教育学生从安第斯国家流向发达国家的因素。本文提出了一种方法,在这种方法中,决定因素被定义为在目的地国家的收入、语言和监管障碍(以经济自由指数作为代理)。这表明,与开放程度较高、监管程度较低的国家达成协议,将有利于流动性。但是,有必要在各机构制定的公约或各国领导的谈判中确定应消除的其他障碍。
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引用次数: 2
La iniciativa “One Belt One Road” y América Latina: “一带一路”倡议:
Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.61781
P. Carrasco
La iniciativa china “One Belt One Road” que pretende conectar por tierra y mar a Asia con Europa y África emulando la antigua ruta de la seda, pretende también expandirse a América Latina mediante la cooperación internacional e inversiones en infraestructura ferroviaria. Si bien en Chile fue cancelado el proyecto del tren entre Santiago y Valparaíso (proyecto TVS) por su alto costo, el siguienteeste artículo abordará busca responder dos cuestiones en torno a este contexto: 1) ¿Qué factores explican la presencia de China en América Latina?; y, 2) A pesar del cierre del proyecto del tren TVS, ¿eExisten alterativas para consolidar la cooperación internacional e inversiones de China en América Latina? ¿Cuáles son sus ventajas y desventajas?
中国的“一带一路”计划仿古丝绸之路,通过陆路和海上将亚洲与欧洲和非洲连接起来,同时也打算通过国际合作和铁路基础设施投资向拉丁美洲扩张。虽然智利圣地亚哥和瓦尔帕莱索之间的火车项目(TVS项目)因成本高而被取消,但本文将试图回答围绕这一背景的两个问题:1)是什么因素解释了中国在拉丁美洲的存在?2)尽管TVS列车项目已经关闭,中国在拉美的国际合作和投资是否有其他选择?它的优点和缺点是什么?
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Analysis of the Trade Relations of Argentina-Indonesia and Chile-Indonesia: 阿根廷-印尼与智利-印尼贸易关系比较分析
Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2020.59042
S. Sterzer, A. Pakkanna
Chile and Argentina have put their radars on trade with Southeast Asian countries, in which Indonesia appears as one of the main countries. In recent years, Chile has had a more aggressive trade policy towards Indonesia. The most recent proof has been the signing of the Indonesia - Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA), which entered into force in 2019. The objective of this article is to present a comparative analysis of trade flows between Argentina - Indonesia and Chile - Indonesia, looking for similarities and differences between both types of bilateral ties, so that they can serve as models to improve existing relations, learning from what it has happened in each one of them.
智利和阿根廷已经开始关注与东南亚国家的贸易,其中印尼似乎是主要国家之一。近年来,智利对印尼采取了更为激进的贸易政策。最近的证据是印度尼西亚-智利全面经济伙伴关系协定(IC-CEPA)的签署,该协定于2019年生效。本文的目的是对阿根廷-印度尼西亚和智利-印度尼西亚之间的贸易流动进行比较分析,寻找两种双边关系之间的异同,以便它们可以作为改善现有关系的模式,从它们各自发生的事情中学习。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Latin American Journal of Trade Policy
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