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Evolution of Mercosur intra-regional trade from 2016 to 2020 2016 - 2020年南方共同市场区域内贸易演变
Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.68979
Luciana Aparecida Bastos, Jesus Crepaldi, Rodrigo Monteiro da Silva, Victor Hugo Bartolomeu de Araújo Bartolomeu de Araújo, Aline de Queiroz Pancera, B. Iqbal
The first attempts at the Latin American integration process showed a highly pragmatic character, without many concerns for medium and long-term projects. The main concern was to expand intra and extra-regional trade. However, since the 1980s (the decade considered the lost decade for Latin America), when the external debt crises and the adjustment policies recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led the region to a higher poverty rate due to the social costs of such policies, Latin America has been rethinking its integration.The creation of LAIA (Latin American Integration Association), in 1980, replacing LAFTA (Latin American Free Trade Association), in 1960, and its sub-regional integration have changed Latin America’s economic growth trajectory from the 1990s.Within the scope of LAIA, Mercosur was created in 1991, with the objective of promoting intra and extra-regional trade expansion through the elimination of tariff barriers among its members, implementing a Common External Tariff. The full members of Mercosur are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The bloc also has associated members: Bolivia, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Suriname and observer members, namely Mexico and New Zealand. This work was developed to verify whether Mercosur, with the elimination of tariff barriers between full members and the Common External Tariff, has been able to meet its main objective, which is to expand intraregional trade among its members. Therefore, the main objective was to verify whether there was trade expansion between the bloc's full partners between the years 2016 and 2020.The methodologies used for this purpose were descriptive statistics and literature review. Aiming to evaluate the annualized rate of change of trade in the period covered, it was decided to use the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), which is a differential of this research. The results showed that within the bloc, Brazil had Argentina as its main trading partner. It was observed that there was an expansion of intraregional trade between 2016 and 2018, followed by a considerable reduction of this trade during the period 2019-2020, but that Brazil still continued to be the member that obtained the largest intra-regional trade balances. Paraguay, in turn, did not show the same trend of commercial reduction for all other partners in 2019 and 2020. In addition, in 2020, even with the COVID 19 pandemic, Paraguay managed to increase its exports to Brazil and Argentina, showing a contrary trend only to their exports to Uruguay. Uruguay, in turn, expanded its imports from partners throughout the period, except for Paraguay in 2020, where its exports exceeded imports. With regard to Argentina, its exports to members began to fall in 2019 and increased in 2020, especially in relation to Brazil. The country also drastically reduced its imports from Brazil and Paraguay in 2019 and 2020, although it also considerably expanded imports from Paraguay
拉丁美洲一体化进程的第一次尝试显示出高度务实的特点,对中期和长期项目没有太多关注。主要关注的是扩大区域内和区域外贸易。然而,自20世纪80年代以来(该十年被认为是拉丁美洲失去的十年),外债危机和国际货币基金组织(IMF)建议的调整政策导致该地区由于这些政策的社会成本而导致贫困率上升,拉丁美洲一直在重新考虑其一体化。1980年拉丁美洲一体化协会(LAIA)取代1960年拉丁美洲自由贸易协会(LAFTA)的成立及其次区域一体化改变了20世纪90年代以来拉丁美洲的经济增长轨迹。南方共同市场于1991年在《区域贸易协定》的范围内成立,其目标是通过消除其成员之间的关税壁垒,执行共同对外关税,促进区域内和区域外贸易的扩大。南方共同市场的正式成员是阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭。该集团还有联邦国:玻利维亚、智利、秘鲁、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、圭亚那和苏里南,以及观察员国,即墨西哥和新西兰。开展这项工作是为了核查南方共同市场在消除了正式成员和共同对外关税之间的关税壁垒后,是否能够实现其主要目标,即扩大其成员之间的区域内贸易。因此,主要目标是验证2016年至2020年期间欧盟正式伙伴之间是否存在贸易扩张。用于此目的的方法是描述性统计和文献综述。为了评估所涵盖期间的年化贸易变化率,决定使用复合年增长率(CAGR),这是本研究的一个差异。结果显示,在欧盟内部,阿根廷是巴西的主要贸易伙伴。据观察,2016年至2018年期间,区域内贸易有所扩大,随后在2019年至2020年期间,这一贸易大幅减少,但巴西仍然是获得最大区域内贸易差额的成员。反过来,巴拉圭在2019年和2020年没有显示出所有其他伙伴的商业减少趋势。此外,2020年,即使在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,巴拉圭对巴西和阿根廷的出口仍有所增加,仅对乌拉圭的出口呈现相反的趋势。乌拉圭在此期间也扩大了从合作伙伴的进口,但巴拉圭在2020年除外,其出口超过进口。就阿根廷而言,其对成员国的出口在2019年开始下降,并在2020年有所增加,尤其是对巴西的出口。该国在2019年和2020年也大幅减少了从巴西和巴拉圭的进口,尽管它也大幅扩大了从巴拉圭的进口
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引用次数: 0
Una revisión de los debates actuales vinculados al comercio internacional y la sostenibilidad ambiental 回顾当前有关国际贸易和环境可持续性的辩论
Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.69407
Nicolás Albertoni, J. Cáceres, Camila Massa
El cambio climático es hoy unos de los principales desafíos globales que enfrenta la humanidad, y por ello uno de los principales temas de discusión en foros y encuentros internacionales. A pesar de que en diferentes rondas multilaterales se ha tratado este tema, incluyendo compromisos firmados como el Acuerdo de París, y que los países han llegado a consensos sobre la necesidad de contener el aumento de temperatura global por debajo de 2 grados Celsius para el año 2030, las emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) continúan creciendo y el tiempo para lograr las metas sigue reduciéndose (OCDE, 2021). Mitigar los efectos del calentamiento global (tendencia que ha ocurrido durante los últimos 150 años debido al aumento de emisiones de GEI derivados de la quema de combustibles fósiles) y adaptarse a sus consecuencias requiere una activa participación hacia el desarrollo de actividades económicas que salvaguarden la conservación de la biodiversidad (National Geographic, 2020). En este contexto, se calcula que el 25% de las emisiones de GEI globales están relacionadas al comercio de bienes, con un 7% directamente ligado al transporte de estas mercancías (ITF, 2016). Desde este problema, nace la oportunidad de diseñar e implementar políticas comerciales instrumentales para el diálogo entre el comercio y medio ambiente, y la consecución de objetivos ligados al desarrollo sostenible.
气候变化是当今人类面临的主要全球性挑战之一,也是国际论坛和会议讨论的主要议题之一。尽管在不同轮多边条约了这个主题,包括巴黎协定签署的承诺,国家已增加共识需要遏制全球气温低于2摄氏度到2030年,温室气体(ghg)排放继续生长时间实现的目标,继续下降(oecd,续约)。减缓全球变暖的影响(趋势近150年来发生了更多化石燃料燃烧产生的温室气体排放量)和适应其后果需要积极参与经济活动发展保护生物多样性的养护(National Geographic), 2020年)。在此背景下,据估计,全球25%的温室气体排放与货物贸易有关,其中7%直接与货物运输有关(ITF, 2016)。从这个问题出发,就有机会设计和执行贸易政策,以促进贸易与环境之间的对话,并实现与可持续发展有关的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Belt and Road Initiative Impact on Bilateral Trade Flows “一带一路”倡议对双边贸易流动的影响
Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.66924
Ismail Amani, Nadjet Kaci
This study aims to assess Belt and Road Initiative impact on bilateral trade between China and the partner countries. Thus, a Panel EGLS gravity model on data of 123 countries from 2012 to 2019 has been elaborated including standard gravity model variables as geographical and socio-cultural distance, local income. This model has been enhanced by introducing a dummy variable representing the membership of the partner country in the BRI and/or in WTO. Results show that standard gravity variables have their usual effects, a negative impact of distance while local incomes and sharing a common language have a positive effect. WTO membership has a positive impact too on bilateral trade between the considered countries. BRI also has a positive impact on bilateral trade between China and partner countries, hence its benefits for both. This positive impact is higher in BRI main road’s regions, Middle East, Europe, South and East Asia, while it lower in other regions as Latin America and North Africa.
本研究旨在评估“一带一路”倡议对中国与伙伴国双边贸易的影响。因此,根据2012年至2019年123个国家的数据,制定了面板EGLS重力模型,其中包括地理和社会文化距离、当地收入等标准重力模型变量。通过引入代表“一带一路”和/或世贸组织伙伴国成员资格的虚拟变量,该模型得到了增强。结果表明,标准重力变量有其通常的影响,距离的负面影响,而当地收入和共享共同语言的积极影响。世贸组织成员资格对考虑的国家之间的双边贸易也有积极影响。“一带一路”倡议也对中国与伙伴国的双边贸易产生积极影响,使双方受益。这种积极影响在“一带一路”主干道沿线地区、中东、欧洲、南亚和东亚地区较高,而在拉丁美洲和北非等其他地区较低。
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引用次数: 0
Divergent Development experiences: A general outlook of China and Latin America’s Development trends 不同的发展经验:中国与拉美发展趋势概观
Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.67930
Jael Cortes Rondoy
Following a definition of development that brings back the role of productive capabilities and endorses structural change, this paper examines two key elements and their trends: industrialization and trade patterns. Through the analysis of economic factors covering the period 1980-2019, this paper aims to offer insights into the elements that have led to divergent development outcomes in China and Latin America, paying particular attention to the cases of Chile and Mexico. Indicators including yearly GDP growth, the share of the world GDP, and per-capita GDP will be used to show that China has outpaced Latin America in terms of growth. Moreover, it will also be demonstrated that while Latin America is experiencing a deindustrialization trend, evidenced by a decline in the manufacturing sector and low levels of high-technology exports, China has experienced rapid industrialization. Moreover, China's exports serve as an illustration of a country that transitioned from producing and exporting low-value manufactured items to more complex goods with higher added value, while Chile has not been able to leave behind its reliance on natural resources. In the case of Mexico, although its exports are not concentrated in primary commodities, they are built on a maquiladora model that relegates it to the bottom of industrial value chains.
本文通过对发展的定义,回归生产能力的作用并支持结构变革,考察了两个关键因素及其趋势:工业化和贸易模式。通过对1980-2019年期间经济因素的分析,本文旨在深入了解导致中国和拉丁美洲发展结果差异的因素,并特别关注智利和墨西哥的案例。包括年度GDP增长、占世界GDP的份额和人均GDP在内的指标将被用来表明中国在增长方面已经超过了拉丁美洲。此外,它还将证明,当拉丁美洲正在经历一个去工业化的趋势,其证据是制造业的下降和高技术出口水平低,中国经历了快速的工业化。此外,中国的出口也说明,中国已经从生产和出口低价值制成品,转变为生产和出口附加值更高的更复杂产品,而智利未能摆脱对自然资源的依赖。以墨西哥为例,尽管其出口并不集中在初级商品上,但它们是建立在“加工厂”(maquiladora)模式上的,这使其处于工业价值链的最底层。
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引用次数: 0
ayuda para el comercio, sus límites y desafíos 帮助贸易,它的限制和挑战
Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.66785
Juliana Peixoto Batista, Vanesa Knoop
La Ayuda para el Comercio como iniciativa es relativamente reciente, si bien ha sido una idea presente desde los inicios del en el sistema multilateral de comercio. Luego de innúmeras presiones de los países en desarrollo, y la necesidad de dar respuestas al aumento de las asimetrías en el sistema a raíz de los acuerdos que crearon la OMC, la iniciativa fue lanzada. Hasta hoy enfrenta muchos desafíos, técnicos y políticos, que reflejan la política de los programas de desarrollo por detrás de cada organismo internacional que la impulsa. La crisis del multilateralismo abrió camino a pensar la Ayuda para el Comercio de maneras más creativas, por medio de procesos regionales o de la cooperación Sur-Sur. Este artículo ayuda a reflexionar sobre la iniciativa, sus orígenes, sus desafíos presentes y futuros, en un mundo en convulsión, donde se suma una pandemia entre las amenazas a los objetivos de desarrollo.
贸易援助作为一项倡议是相对较新的,尽管它从多边贸易体制的一开始就存在。在发展中国家的无数压力下,以及在世贸组织达成协议后,需要对体系中日益加剧的不对称作出反应,这一倡议得以启动。今天,它面临着许多技术和政治挑战,这些挑战反映了推动它的每个国际机构背后的发展议程政策。多边主义的危机为以更有创造性的方式看待贸易援助开辟了道路,无论是通过区域进程还是南南合作。本文有助于在一个动荡的世界中反思该倡议、它的起源、它目前和未来的挑战,在这个世界中,流行病增加了对发展目标的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
De-Globalization De-Globalization
Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.65463
André C Jordaan
Globalization conveys the widely accepted idea that we are living in a border-less world. According to this view, no notice is taken of distance or national policy anymore, dictated by global markets. However, the concept of de-globalization is starting to appear in literature with evidence of a growing awareness. It seems that there is a transition from globalization and trade integration to economic nationalism or de-globalization. Recent data suggests that the level of de-globalization is on the increase globally. This phenomenon may cause vulnerable countries to reassess their position in the global trade environment as conventional trade agreements and partners may be jeopardized. The COVID-19 pandemic has spilled over to the global economy triggering a massive decline in economic activity, mainly because of government mandated lockdowns and general mobility restrictions. This has also had a dramatic effect on the functioning of global value chains, increasing the visible threat of de-globalization. Recent trends associated with the move towards de-globalization among G-20 countries and concomitant risks are also explored.
全球化传达了一种广为接受的观念,即我们生活在一个无国界的世界里。根据这种观点,在全球市场的支配下,人们不再关注距离或国家政策。然而,去全球化的概念开始出现在文学作品中,有证据表明人们越来越意识到这一点。似乎出现了从全球化和贸易一体化到经济民族主义或去全球化的过渡。最近的数据表明,在全球范围内,去全球化的程度正在上升。这种现象可能使脆弱的国家重新评估其在全球贸易环境中的地位,因为传统的贸易协定和伙伴可能受到损害。COVID-19大流行已经蔓延到全球经济,引发经济活动大幅下降,主要原因是政府强制封锁和普遍的流动限制。这也对全球价值链的运作产生了巨大影响,增加了去全球化的明显威胁。本文还探讨了与20国集团国家走向去全球化相关的最新趋势以及随之而来的风险。
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引用次数: 3
The African Continental Free Trade Area: 非洲大陆自由贸易区:
Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.64897
V. Mlambo, X. Thusi, Sphephelo P. Zubane, D. N. Mlambo
Free trade agreements have been known to have numerous benefits, especially from an economic point of view, however, it has been argued that for them to be successful, they ought to be complemented by a conducive socio-economic –and by extension political environment. Regrettably, the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA) arrived at a time when Africa was economically and politically unstable; conflict and economic insecurity have exacerbated the lack of development in the contintent. As a result of the above, this paper seeks to understand how African states will navigate their various economic and, by extension, political interests in the hope of contributing to the success of the AfCFTA. Finally, the paper will answer whether Africa is ready for a free trade agreement by employing a qualitative research approach and reviewing current literature.
众所周知,自由贸易协定有许多好处,特别是从经济角度来看,然而,有人认为,为了使它们取得成功,它们应该辅之以有利的社会经济环境,并延伸到政治环境。令人遗憾的是,非洲大陆自由贸易区协定(AfCFTA)是在非洲经济和政治不稳定的时候达成的;冲突和经济不安全加剧了非洲大陆缺乏发展的状况。综上所述,本文试图了解非洲国家将如何驾驭其不同的经济利益,并由此延伸到政治利益,以期为非洲自由贸易区的成功做出贡献。最后,本文将通过采用定性研究方法和回顾当前文献来回答非洲是否为自由贸易协定做好了准备。
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引用次数: 1
Nuevos datos basados en el Índice Vulnerabilidad Comercial (IVC): 基于交易脆弱性指数(IVC)的新数据:
Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.66694
Nicolás Albertoni, Ramiro Correa, Agustín Irurralde
La alta interdependencia del comercio mundial originada por la creciente red de acuerdos comerciales existentes y las cadenas globales de valor hace necesario que se incorporen nuevas variables al análisis sobre la performance de la inserción internacional de un país. En este marco, el Índice de Vulnerabilidad Comercial (IVC) elaborado por el Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo (CED) de Uruguay, busca incorporar alguna de esas otras variables al debate para tener una mirada basada en evidencia, sobre el estado de la inserción internacional de un país en la economía mundial.
由于现有贸易协定和全球价值链网络的不断扩大,世界贸易高度相互依赖,因此有必要在分析一个国家的国际一体化表现时纳入新的变量。在这一框架内,制定商业脆弱性指数(IVC)发展研究中心(环发中心)乌拉圭,致力于把一些其他变量辩论得到基于证据的眼光,关于国家融入国际全球经济。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Cargo Flows in Ghana 加纳航空货运量的宏观经济决定因素
Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2022.67061
A. J. Adenigbo, Joash Mageto, R. Luke
Air cargo flows in a country represent air trade volume involving the exchange of goods between countries, and it is significant to the economic development of nations. However, the instability of macroeconomic variables makes air cargo trade fluctuate with its decision-making challenges. This paper examines air cargo flows by volume, origin, destination, and Ghana’s macroeconomic determinants of air trade. The study collected categorized cargo volume data from Ghana Airport Company Ltd and macroeconomic data from the Bank of Ghana from 1991 to 2020. The study employed descriptive, correlation and regression to analyze data. ArcGIS mapping shows that European countries form the primary origins and destinations of cargo traffic in Ghana. The regression analysis found exchange rate (r = 0.43) and interest rate (r = 0.50) as the significant macroeconomic variables influencing air cargo trade in Ghana. This study highlights the need for policy decisions that promote an extensive bilateral exchange and lower interest rates for local production and export goods by air in Ghana.
一个国家的航空货运量代表着国家间货物交换的航空贸易量,对一个国家的经济发展具有重要意义。然而,宏观经济变量的不稳定性使得航空货运贸易的决策具有波动性。本文考察了航空货物流量的数量,原产地,目的地,和加纳的宏观经济决定因素的航空贸易。该研究收集了1991年至2020年加纳机场有限公司的分类货运量数据和加纳银行的宏观经济数据。本研究采用描述性、相关性和回归分析法对数据进行分析。ArcGIS地图显示,欧洲国家构成了加纳货物运输的主要来源地和目的地。回归分析发现汇率(r = 0.43)和利率(r = 0.50)是影响加纳航空货运贸易的重要宏观经济变量。这项研究强调需要作出政策决定,促进加纳广泛的双边交流和降低当地生产和空运出口货物的利率。
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引用次数: 2
Making Trade Agreements Work for Women Empowerment: 使贸易协定有利于妇女赋权:
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.5354/0719-9368.2021.65667
A. Bahri
In the recent years, there has been an upsurge in the number of FTAs that are mainstreaming gender equality concerns in their trade agreements. But is gender mainstreaming enough, and does it mean that countries that “mainstream” gender equality concerns in their trade agreements also “adopt” actions to address these concerns? What is gender mainstreaming in trade policy context? How can trade agreements help in fostering women empowerment? What kinds of relevant provisions have already been included in existing trade agreements, and what remains undone? This article seeks to respond to these questions
近年来,将性别平等问题纳入贸易协定主流的自由贸易协定数量激增。但是,性别主流化就足够了吗?这是否意味着在贸易协定中“主流化”性别平等问题的国家也会“采取”行动来解决这些问题?贸易政策背景下的性别主流化是什么?贸易协定如何有助于促进妇女赋权?现有的贸易协定中已经包含了哪些相关条款?还有哪些未做的条款?本文试图回答这些问题
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Latin American Journal of Trade Policy
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