Personal consumption is the largest macroeconomic aggregate with a large impact on economic trends and a share of GDP of about 60%. The aim of this paper was to determine whether there are significant differences in the movement and structure of personal consumption in Croatia and the two new EU members - the Czech Republic and Romania and to establish patterns of changes in personal consumption in the named countries. The analysis confirmed a strong correlation between personal consumption and GDP, and this correlation is stronger in Romania, where the direction of these two rates of change almost coincides. The previous confirms personal consumption as an important category to be taken into account when adopting macroeconomic policies. The analysis, also, showed that the share of personal consumption in GDP is the smallest in the Czech Republic, suggesting that there are some other Czech economy drivers, primarily investment and net exports. Given that the Czech Republic and Croatia are small and open economies comparable to the level of development, and considering that the Czech economy growth is considerably higher than in Croatia, it can be concluded that the model of economic growth in the Czech Republic is better and more sustainable in the long run. The model of economic growth relying on personal consumption as a generator of aggregate demand is not a model that can ensure sustainable GDP growth in Croatia, especially in terms of population decrease. It is, therefore, necessary to provide a stimulating institutional framework for the growth of domestic and foreign investments and greater export orientation.
{"title":"Kretanje osobne potrošnje na primjeru odabranih članica EU-a","authors":"Vesna Buterin, Nela Vlahinic Lenz, Natalija Mihaljević","doi":"10.31784/zvr.7.1.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31784/zvr.7.1.17","url":null,"abstract":"Personal consumption is the largest macroeconomic aggregate with a large\u0000impact on economic trends and a share of GDP of about 60%. The aim of this paper was to determine whether there are significant differences in\u0000the movement and structure of personal consumption in Croatia and the two new EU members - the Czech Republic and Romania and to establish patterns of changes in personal consumption in the named countries. The analysis confirmed a strong correlation between personal consumption and\u0000GDP, and this correlation is stronger in Romania, where the direction of these two rates of change almost coincides. The previous confirms personal consumption as an important category to be taken into account when adopting macroeconomic policies. The analysis, also, showed that the share of personal consumption in GDP is the smallest in the Czech Republic, suggesting that there are some other Czech economy drivers, primarily investment and net exports. Given that the Czech Republic and Croatia are small and open economies comparable to the level of development, and considering that the Czech economy growth is considerably higher than in Croatia, it can be concluded that the model of economic growth in the Czech Republic is better and more sustainable in the long run. The model of economic growth relying on personal consumption as a generator of aggregate demand is not a model that can ensure sustainable GDP growth in Croatia, especially in terms of population decrease. It is, therefore, necessary to provide a stimulating institutional framework for the growth of domestic and foreign investments and greater export orientation.","PeriodicalId":40998,"journal":{"name":"Zbornik Veleucilista u Rijeci-Journal of the Polytechnics of Rijeka","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2019-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.31784/zvr.7.1.17","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69397727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the Republic of Croatia. It plays a significant role in its economic development. This research investigates whether the macro-variables have an impact on the stock returns in the hospitality industry. The focus of the work consists in causality relationship between four macro variables (consumer price index, industrial production, exchange rate and number of tourist arrivals) and a stock index composed of Croatian hospitality companies. After applying Granger-causality tests based on the VAR methodology, results suggest that only consumer price index Granger-cause stock returns in the hospitality industry in the observed period from July 2008 to July 2018. Further analysis through impulse response function indicates that the impulse responses of inflation meet expectations in terms of the direction of impact. In the second month, stock prices react negatively to shock, implying that higher inflation causes negative stock price returns. After applying the variance decomposition method, a very low explanatory power of consumer price index on stock returns in the hospitality industry was revealed. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the topic of the impact of macro-economic variables on hospitality stock returns by extending the scope to Croatia and by testing a different set of variables compared to those from previous studies.
{"title":"Macroeconomic impact on\u0000stock returns in the Croatian hospitality\u0000industry","authors":"S. Bogdan","doi":"10.31784/zvr.7.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31784/zvr.7.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the Republic of Croatia.\u0000It plays a significant role in its economic development. This research investigates whether the macro-variables have an impact on the stock returns in the hospitality industry. The focus of the work consists in causality relationship between four macro variables (consumer price index, industrial production, exchange rate and number of tourist arrivals) and a stock index composed of Croatian hospitality companies. After applying Granger-causality tests based on the VAR methodology, results suggest that only consumer price index Granger-cause stock returns in the hospitality industry in the observed period from July 2008 to July 2018. Further analysis through impulse response function indicates that the impulse responses of inflation meet expectations in terms of the direction of impact. In the second month, stock prices react negatively to shock, implying that higher inflation causes negative stock price returns. After applying the variance decomposition method, a very low explanatory power of consumer price index on stock returns in the hospitality industry was revealed. This paper contributes\u0000to the existing literature on the topic of the impact of macro-economic\u0000variables on hospitality stock returns by extending the scope to Croatia and by testing a different set of variables compared to those from previous studies.","PeriodicalId":40998,"journal":{"name":"Zbornik Veleucilista u Rijeci-Journal of the Polytechnics of Rijeka","volume":"171 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2019-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.31784/zvr.7.1.2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69397363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}