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The Size Distribution Across All "Cities": A Unifying Approach 所有“城市”的规模分布:一个统一的方法
Pub Date : 2012-02-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2004229
Kristian Giesen, Jens Suedekum
In this paper we show that the double Pareto lognormal (DPLN)parameterization provides an excellent fit to the overall US city size distribution, regardlessof whether �cities� are administratively defined Census places or economically definedarea clusters. We then consider an economic model that combines scale-independent urbangrowth (Gibrat�s law) with endogenous city creation. City sizes converge to a DPLNdistribution in this model, which is much better in line with the data than previous urbangrowth frameworks that predict a lognormal or a Pareto city size distribution (Zipf�s law).
在本文中,我们证明了双帕累托对数正态(DPLN)参数化提供了一个很好的拟合整体美国城市规模分布,无论“城市”是行政上定义的人口普查地点还是经济上定义的区域集群。然后,我们考虑了一种将规模无关的城市增长(直布罗陀定律)与内生城市创造相结合的经济模型。在这个模型中,城市规模收敛于dpln分布,这比以前预测对数正态分布或帕累托城市规模分布(Zipf定律)的城市增长框架更符合数据。
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引用次数: 45
Assessing Income Distribution at the District Level for India Using Nighttime Satellite Imagery 利用夜间卫星图像评估印度地区一级的收入分配
Pub Date : 2011-12-13 DOI: 10.7125/APAN.32.23
Mayuri Chaturvedi, T. Ghosh, Laveesh Bhandari
Several studies have been carried out relating nighttime lights with economic activity. But most studies relating nighttime lights with economic activity have focused on associating higher totals in economic activity with higher sum of lights across regions. The question addressed in this paper is how best to model the relationship of nighttime lights with not just the wealthy but also the relatively worse-off within a region. The implications of such an exercise are immense with respect to ascertaining income distribution aspects of any area. The methods developed in this paper explore the relation between households in different income brackets at the district level for India, and the radiance-calibrated nighttime image of 2004. Besides the radiance-calibrated data of 2004, estimates of household incomes and number of households in different income brackets, made by Indicus Analytics (specialized economic research firm, based in New Delhi, India) were used. The results were mapped and insights were drawn for all districts based on their socio-economic profile. These results illustrate the advantage of using this easily available data for determining income inequalities, especially in information-deficient countries such as India.
已经进行了几项有关夜间灯光与经济活动的研究。但是,大多数将夜间灯光与经济活动联系起来的研究都集中在经济活动总量较高与区域间灯光总量较高之间的联系上。本文讨论的问题是,如何最好地模拟一个地区内夜间灯光与富人以及相对较差的人的关系。在确定任何地区的收入分配方面,这种工作的影响是巨大的。本文开发的方法探讨了印度地区不同收入阶层家庭之间的关系,以及2004年辐射校准的夜间图像。除了2004年的辐射校准数据外,还使用了Indicus Analytics(总部位于印度新德里的专业经济研究公司)对家庭收入和不同收入等级家庭数量的估计。结果被绘制成地图,并根据所有地区的社会经济状况得出见解。这些结果说明了利用这种容易获得的数据来确定收入不平等的优势,特别是在印度等信息缺乏的国家。
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引用次数: 26
Zipf's Law for Cities in the Regions and the Country 地区和国家城市的齐夫定律
Pub Date : 2011-07-01 DOI: 10.1093/JEG/LBQ019
Kristian Giesen, Jens Suedekum
The salient rank-size rule known as Zipf's law is not only satisfied for Germany's national urban hierarchy, but also for the city size distributions in single German regions. To analyze this phenomenon, we build on the insights by Gabaix (1999) that Zipf's law follows from a stochastic growth process. In particular, Gabaix shows that if the regions follow Gibrat's law, we should observe Zipf at both the regional and the national level. This theory has never been addressed empirically. Using non-parametric techniques we find that Gibrat's law holds in each German region, irrespective of how "regions" are defined. In other words, Gibrat's law and therefore Zipf's law tend to hold everywhere in space.
被称为齐夫定律的显著等级-规模规则不仅适用于德国的国家城市等级,也适用于德国单个地区的城市规模分布。为了分析这一现象,我们以Gabaix(1999)的见解为基础,即齐夫定律遵循随机增长过程。特别是,Gabaix表明,如果地区遵循直布罗陀的法律,我们应该在地区和国家层面上遵守Zipf。这一理论从未得到过实证研究。使用非参数技术,我们发现直布罗陀定律适用于每个德国地区,无论“地区”是如何定义的。换句话说,直布罗陀定律和齐夫定律在空间的任何地方都成立。
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引用次数: 142
The Economic Impact of Anticipated House Price Changes — Evidence from Home Sales 预期房价变动的经济影响——来自房屋销售的证据
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00292.x
N. Miller, L. Peng, Michael Sklarz
If realized house prices have the wealth effect and the collateral effect on the economy, anticipated house price changes should have similar economic effects. This article empirically analyzes the effects of single‐family home sales, which are shown to be able to predict house prices in the literature, on economic production, using 372 metropolitan statistic areas in the United States from the first quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 2008 in a panel vector error correction model. Changes in home sales are found to Granger because the growth rate of per‐capita gross metropolitan product and the dynamic effects are visualized with impulse response functions. Supporting evidence for the economic impact of home sales is also found in contemporaneous regressions.
如果实现的房价对经济具有财富效应和附带效应,那么预期的房价变化应该具有类似的经济效应。本文运用面板向量误差修正模型,对1981年第一季度至2008年第二季度的美国372个大都市统计区进行了实证分析,分析了单户住宅销售对经济生产的影响,文献显示单户住宅销售能够预测房价。住宅销售的变化是格兰杰的,因为人均城市生产总值的增长率和动态效应是用脉冲响应函数可视化的。支持房屋销售对经济影响的证据也可以在同期回归中找到。
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引用次数: 34
Estimates of a Cultural Consumption Price Index by Australian Region 澳洲各地区文化消费价格指数的估计
Pub Date : 2011-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2661224
T. MacDonald, J. Potts
There are cultural costs and benefits associated with where one chooses to live in Australia. City living, for example, offers proximity to a greater range of cultural opportunities but carries higher costs of living than in a smaller town. Better access and variety is traded off against higher prices. The Cultural Consumption Price Index (CCPI) is an attempt to quantify this trade-­‐off for a representative household by estimating the full cost of a weighted basket of standardized cultural goods and services. The objective of this paper is to do so by providing a measure of how real costs of cultural consumption vary by geographic location in Australia. We estimate the CCPI over 30 post-­‐code defined Australian locations, ranging from inner city metro regions to outback communities. The CCPI climbs, at first slowly but then quickly, as cultural consumption is undertaken further and further away from its lowest point in the metro urban conglomerates of Western and South Australia, rising along the east coast and spreading inland. The highest prices of cultural consumption are in the remote centre and north of Australia. We propose a method to construct a price index of cultural consumption in geographic space. The index – the CCPI – is calculated from a standardised cultural consumption basket purchased by a representative consumer over 30 locations in Australia, using 2010 price data. We use a full cost method (direct plus indirect cost) to estimate the index value of the cultural consumption basket. This method highlights the extent that price differences by Australian location are accounted for by larger indirect costs (particularly travel) in consumption. The CCPI thus offers an empirical estimate of variation in the real cost of cultural consumption throughout Australia, based on existing investments and technologies with uniform preference. This will be of potential interest to regional policy, public infrastructure investment, and cultural policy, as well as informing decisions about regional migration and entrepreneurial opportunity. We find that the smaller cities of Perth and Adelaide have the lowest index value, with the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne next, and with regional centres having index values that range between 20 percent and 100 percent higher, and remote towns scoring index values considerably higher again. We then recalculate the index based on non-­‐linear per capita scaling. This shifts the index away from major cities and toward evidently productive smaller cultural centres including Byron Bay and Freemantle. Further refinements of the index are suggested and some policy implications are outlined.
在澳大利亚,一个人选择住在哪里,有文化成本也有文化收益。例如,城市生活提供了更大范围的文化机会,但与小城镇相比,生活成本更高。更好的渠道和品种与更高的价格相抵消。文化消费价格指数(CCPI)试图通过估算标准化文化商品和服务加权篮子的全部成本来量化代表性家庭的这种贸易。本文的目的是通过提供一种衡量文化消费的实际成本如何随澳大利亚地理位置的不同而变化的方法来做到这一点。我们估计CCPI超过30个邮政编码定义的澳大利亚地点,范围从内城地铁地区到内陆社区。随着文化消费越来越远离西澳大利亚和南澳大利亚的大都市集团的最低点,沿着东海岸上升并向内陆蔓延,CCPI开始缓慢上升,但随后迅速上升。文化消费价格最高的地区位于澳大利亚偏远的中部和北部。本文提出了构建地理空间文化消费价格指数的方法。CCPI是根据澳大利亚30个地区的有代表性的消费者购买的标准化文化消费篮子,使用2010年的价格数据计算得出的。我们采用全成本法(直接成本加间接成本)估算文化消费篮子的指数值。这种方法突出了澳大利亚不同地点的价格差异是由消费中较大的间接成本(特别是旅行成本)造成的。因此,CCPI基于统一偏好的现有投资和技术,提供了对整个澳大利亚文化消费实际成本变化的经验估计。这将对区域政策、公共基础设施投资和文化政策产生潜在的影响,并为有关区域移民和创业机会的决策提供信息。我们发现,珀斯和阿德莱德等小城市的指数值最低,其次是悉尼和墨尔本等大城市,区域中心的指数值高出20%至100%,偏远城镇的得分指数值又高了很多。然后,我们根据非线性人均标度重新计算该指数。这将指数从主要城市转移到明显富有成效的小型文化中心,包括拜伦湾和弗里曼特尔。建议进一步完善该指数,并概述了一些政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Information Spillovers and House Prices 信息溢出与房价
Pub Date : 2011-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1786824
Aydoğan Alti, Joseph Engelberg, Christopher Parsons
We present direct evidence of information spillovers through transactions prices in real estate markets. This behavior is not explained by common shocks to housing values. The effect is strongest in homogenous markets, where the information content of price is higher. The effect is weakest among sellers expecting a nominal loss from selling, suggesting that behavioral factors may limit price-mediated information flow. Information spillovers improve liquidity, reducing time on market as much as 20%.
我们通过房地产市场的交易价格提供了信息溢出的直接证据。这种行为不能用房屋价值的普遍冲击来解释。这种效应在同质化市场中最为明显,价格的信息含量较高。在期望从出售中获得名义损失的卖家中,这种效应最弱,这表明行为因素可能会限制价格介导的信息流。信息溢出提高了流动性,减少了20%的上市时间。
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引用次数: 6
House Price Indexes and Cyclical Behavior 房价指数与周期性行为
Pub Date : 2011-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1768028
Marcelo Bianconi, J. A. Yoshino
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate its main claim that the hedonic direct method using time dummies as well as the simple average method include cyclical behavior of observables and non-observables in a house price index that may overestimate or underestimate the actual change in house prices, well beyond the composition effects. Design/methodology/approach - The paper proposes the use of alternative characteristics hedonic functions to compute alternative Laspeyres house price indexes that differentiate the sources of observable shocks in the index. The decomposition allows for the inclusion of level and cyclical behavior of sets of aggregate variables into the index. Findings - The appropriate house price index should filter out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy. In the limited sample from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, the main finding is that real shocks and US foreign shocks give an upward bias in the house price index, while nominal shocks give mostly a downward bias. Real shocks make the index incorporate gains that should not be incorporated into the index, thus providing a noisy picture of the nominal variation in house prices. Originality/value - The key contribution of this paper is to provide a framework for the construction of a house price index that filters out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Those biases can spillover to the rest of the economy is a detrimental way. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy.
目的-本文的目的是使用巴西圣保罗市新公寓供应的数据来说明其主要主张,即使用时间假人的享乐直接方法以及简单平均方法包括房价指数中可观察和不可观察的周期性行为,这可能高估或低估了房价的实际变化,远远超出了构成效应。设计/方法/方法-本文建议使用替代特征享乐函数来计算可替代的Laspeyres房价指数,以区分指数中可观察到的冲击的来源。分解允许在索引中包含聚合变量集的水平和循环行为。调查结果-适当的房价指数应该过滤掉潜在影响房地产行业的实际冲击。一个指数应该捕捉名义上的变化,并结合实际的变化偏差的测量。因此,该指数旨在并能够缓冲偏见溢出到其他经济领域的影响。在来自巴西圣保罗市的有限样本中,主要发现是,实际冲击和来自美国的外国冲击会导致房价指数上涨,而名义冲击大多会导致房价指数下跌。真正的冲击使指数纳入了不应纳入指数的收益,从而提供了一幅嘈杂的房价名义变化图景。原创性/价值——本文的主要贡献是为构建房价指数提供了一个框架,该指数可以过滤掉可能影响房地产行业的实际冲击。一个指数应该捕捉名义上的变化,并结合实际的变化偏差的测量。这些偏见可能以一种有害的方式蔓延到经济的其他领域。因此,该指数旨在并能够缓冲偏见溢出到其他经济领域的影响。
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引用次数: 7
Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy 丧失抵押品赎回权,房价和实体经济
Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1722195
Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi, Francesco Trebbi
States without a judicial requirement for foreclosures are twice as likely to foreclose on delinquent homeowners. Comparing zip codes close to state borders with differing foreclosure laws, we show that foreclosure propensity and housing inventory jump discretely as one enters non-judicial states. There is no jump in other homeowner attributes such as credit scores, income, or education levels. The increase in foreclosure rates in non-judicial states persists for at least five years. Using the judicial / non-judicial law as an instrument for foreclosures, we show that foreclosures lead to a large decline in house prices, residential investment, and consumer demand.
没有司法要求取消抵押品赎回权的州,对拖欠贷款的房主取消抵押品赎回权的可能性是其他州的两倍。比较邮政编码靠近州边界与不同的止赎法,我们表明,止赎倾向和住房库存离散跳跃当一个人进入非司法状态。房主的其他属性,如信用评分、收入或教育水平,没有大幅上升。在非司法州,止赎率的上升至少会持续五年。使用司法/非司法法律作为丧失抵押品赎回权的工具,我们表明丧失抵押品赎回权导致房价、住宅投资和消费需求的大幅下降。
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引用次数: 335
Liquidity Shocks, Local Banks, and Economic Activity: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis 流动性冲击、地方银行和经济活动:来自2007-2009年危机的证据
Pub Date : 2010-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1709677
M. Goetz, Juan Carlos Gozzi
This paper studies the relationship between shocks to local banks and economic activity, by exploiting differences in the liability structure of small U.S. commercial banks during the 2007-09 crisis. Banks that relied more heavily on wholesale liabilities reduced lending relatively more during the crisis than banks funding themselves with retail deposits, suggesting that the use of short-term wholesale funding exposed banks to a sudden dry-up in market liquidity. Moreover, metropolitan areas where banks relied more on wholesale liabilities experienced larger reductions in employment and establishments during the crisis, suggesting that adverse shocks to banks hurt the economy. This effect was stronger in areas with more bank-dependent firms, such as small businesses and firms with higher external financing needs.
本文利用2007-09年金融危机期间美国小型商业银行负债结构的差异,研究地方银行受到的冲击与经济活动之间的关系。在危机期间,严重依赖批发负债的银行减少贷款的程度,相对于依靠零售存款融资的银行,这表明,短期批发融资的使用,使银行面临市场流动性突然枯竭的风险。此外,在危机期间,银行更依赖批发负债的大都市地区,就业和机构的减少幅度更大,这表明对银行的不利冲击损害了经济。在小企业和外部融资需求较高的企业等对银行依赖程度较高的地区,这种影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 57
The Role of Real Estate Market on Asset Pricing Models: Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong 房地产市场对资产定价模型的作用:来自香港的经验证据
Pub Date : 2010-08-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1653294
P. M. Chui
This paper explores the importance of real estate market for asset pricing models using Hong Kong data. The time-series regression approach is employed to examine the effect of a real estate factor on the Fama and French (1993) three factor model and on the Cahart (1997) four factor model. A residential price index and a total returns index based on average residential prices and average residential rents are used as proxies for real estate market. The empirical evidence demonstrates that significant positive real estate coefficients do exist in all pricing models under this study. In addition, the weighting scheme of portfolio construction (value-weighted portfolio vs. equally-weighted portfolio) has an impact on the regression results, in particular the real estate factor, for the monthly data as well as for the quarterly data.
本文利用香港的数据探讨了房地产市场对资产定价模型的重要性。采用时间序列回归方法检验房地产因素对Fama和French(1993)三因素模型和Cahart(1997)四因素模型的影响。使用住宅价格指数和基于平均住宅价格和平均住宅租金的总收益指数作为房地产市场的代理指标。实证证据表明,本研究的所有定价模型都存在显著的正房地产系数。此外,投资组合构建的权重方案(价值加权投资组合vs等加权投资组合)对月度数据和季度数据的回归结果都有影响,尤其是房地产因素。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)
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