In recent decades, various measures of “business dynamism”—such as new business entry rates and gross job or worker flows—have seen significant declines in the U.S.. Over a similar time frame, there is evidence that an important measure of market power—the average markup—has risen significantly (figure 1, left panel; De Loecker, Eeckhout, and Unger 2020). A natural question is whether these patterns are related.
{"title":"Rising Markups and Declining Business Dynamism: Evidence From the Industry Cross Section","authors":"Brian C. Albrecht, Ryan A. Decker","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3471","url":null,"abstract":"In recent decades, various measures of “business dynamism”—such as new business entry rates and gross job or worker flows—have seen significant declines in the U.S.. Over a similar time frame, there is evidence that an important measure of market power—the average markup—has risen significantly (figure 1, left panel; De Loecker, Eeckhout, and Unger 2020). A natural question is whether these patterns are related.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"106 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140271271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jonathan Glicoes, Benjamin Iorio, Phillip Monin, Lubomir Petrasek
The Treasury cash-futures basis trade exploits the difference in prices between a Treasury security and a related Treasury futures contract – the so-called cash-futures basis – by purchasing the asset that is relatively undervalued and selling the other in a bet that the prices will converge. Basis traders support Treasury market functioning by keeping the prices of Treasury futures near their fair value relative to Treasury securities and by serving as an important source of demand for Treasury securities, including during the 2017-2019 period of quantitative tightening when basis traders absorbed much of the increased Treasury supply.
{"title":"Quantifying Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trades","authors":"Jonathan Glicoes, Benjamin Iorio, Phillip Monin, Lubomir Petrasek","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3458","url":null,"abstract":"The Treasury cash-futures basis trade exploits the difference in prices between a Treasury security and a related Treasury futures contract – the so-called cash-futures basis – by purchasing the asset that is relatively undervalued and selling the other in a bet that the prices will converge. Basis traders support Treasury market functioning by keeping the prices of Treasury futures near their fair value relative to Treasury securities and by serving as an important source of demand for Treasury securities, including during the 2017-2019 period of quantitative tightening when basis traders absorbed much of the increased Treasury supply.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"61 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140272900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this note, we introduce a measure of unemployment risk, the likelihood of a worker becoming unemployed within the next twelve months. By using nonparametric machine learning applied to data on millions of workers in the US, we can estimate how unemployment risk varies across individuals and over time.
{"title":"Measuring Unemployment Risk","authors":"Brendan J. Chapuis, John Coglianese","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3453","url":null,"abstract":"In this note, we introduce a measure of unemployment risk, the likelihood of a worker becoming unemployed within the next twelve months. By using nonparametric machine learning applied to data on millions of workers in the US, we can estimate how unemployment risk varies across individuals and over time.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140275923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing the Extent of Trade Fragmentation","authors":"Justin R. Pierce, David Yu","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3387","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p />","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"112 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding the effects of capital flows across countries depends critically on accurate and comprehensive data. For the U.S., data on cross-border securities holdings and transactions are collected through the TIC (Treasury International Capital) data system. As we have previously noted, it has long been difficult to reconcile the TIC data on securities holdings with the TIC S transactions data (see Bertaut and Tryon (2007) and Bertaut and Judson (2014, 2022)).
理解各国间资本流动的影响，关键取决于准确和全面的数据。对于美国来说，跨境证券持有和交易的数据是通过TIC (Treasury International Capital)数据系统收集的。正如我们之前所指出的，长期以来，很难将TIC的证券持有数据与TIC的交易数据相协调(见Bertaut and Tryon(2007)和Bertaut and Judson(2014, 2022))。
{"title":"Measuring U.S. Cross-Border Securities Flows: New Data and A Guide for Researchers","authors":"Carol Bertaut, Ruth Judson","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3392","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the effects of capital flows across countries depends critically on accurate and comprehensive data. For the U.S., data on cross-border securities holdings and transactions are collected through the TIC (Treasury International Capital) data system. As we have previously noted, it has long been difficult to reconcile the TIC data on securities holdings with the TIC S transactions data (see Bertaut and Tryon (2007) and Bertaut and Judson (2014, 2022)).","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135606179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2013, a shift in expectations of market participants for the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, and its ramifications for normalization of U.S. monetary policy, led to sharp increases in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields and volatility in broader financial markets. The episode came to be known as the "taper tantrum" because the strong market reaction came in response to Federal Reserve communications that were largely consistent with market analysts' expectations.
{"title":"U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Currencies: Taking Stock 10 Years After the Taper Tantrum","authors":"Nira Harikrishnan, Benjamin Silk, Emre Yoldas","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3385","url":null,"abstract":"In 2013, a shift in expectations of market participants for the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, and its ramifications for normalization of U.S. monetary policy, led to sharp increases in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields and volatility in broader financial markets. The episode came to be known as the \"taper tantrum\" because the strong market reaction came in response to Federal Reserve communications that were largely consistent with market analysts' expectations.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135606184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jesse Bricker, Sarena Goodman, Kevin Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, Richard Windle
Between 2019 and 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the U.S. labor market and broader economic activity, leading to unprecedented levels of fiscal support. Nonetheless, over this period, net changes in major economic indicators were consistent with a robust economy, and according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), U.S. families experienced broad-based improvements in their finances, particularly with respect to net worth (Aladangady et al., 2023).
{"title":"U.S. Families’ Experiences of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances","authors":"Jesse Bricker, Sarena Goodman, Kevin Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, Richard Windle","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3406","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2019 and 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the U.S. labor market and broader economic activity, leading to unprecedented levels of fiscal support. Nonetheless, over this period, net changes in major economic indicators were consistent with a robust economy, and according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), U.S. families experienced broad-based improvements in their finances, particularly with respect to net worth (Aladangady et al., 2023).","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136007968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document racial disparities in financial well-being in the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. The typical White family had about six times as much wealth as the typical Black family, and five times as much as the typical Hispanic family.
{"title":"Greater Wealth, Greater Uncertainty: Changes in Racial Inequality in the Survey of Consumer Finances","authors":"Aditya Aladangady, Andrew C. Chang, Jacob Krimmel","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3405","url":null,"abstract":"We document racial disparities in financial well-being in the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. The typical White family had about six times as much wealth as the typical Black family, and five times as much as the typical Hispanic family.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136007967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern manufacturing production is organized in complex global value chains (GVCs), whereby the production process of a good is split into multiple stages across many countries and sectors. By allowing producers to specialize in a narrow set of tasks according to their comparative advantage, GVCs have brought significant productivity gains.
{"title":"A Sourcing Risk Index for U.S. Manufacturing Industries","authors":"Andrea De Michelis, Mariano Somale","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3367","url":null,"abstract":"Modern manufacturing production is organized in complex global value chains (GVCs), whereby the production process of a good is split into multiple stages across many countries and sectors. By allowing producers to specialize in a narrow set of tasks according to their comparative advantage, GVCs have brought significant productivity gains.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135248641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Policymakers, including Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, have been stressing the elevated level of uncertainty, especially related to inflation, and the challenge this poses for monetary policy. As seen in Figure 1, with few exceptions, FOMC participants see the level of uncertainty around their forecasts for core PCE inflation as high, compared to the average over the past 20 years.
{"title":"Global Inflation Uncertainty and its Economic Effects","authors":"Juan M. Londono, Sai Ma, Beth Anne Wilson","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3391","url":null,"abstract":"Policymakers, including Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, have been stressing the elevated level of uncertainty, especially related to inflation, and the challenge this poses for monetary policy. As seen in Figure 1, with few exceptions, FOMC participants see the level of uncertainty around their forecasts for core PCE inflation as high, compared to the average over the past 20 years.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135640652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：