Pub Date : 2019-04-01DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL11.ISS1.ART10
S. Y. Zeraatkish, Z. Farahmand
Iranian economy was under pressured during the period of international trade sanctions. This paper investigates the effect of the economic sanctions on the bilateral agriculture trade of Iran with ten main trading partners in European Union between 2001 to 2015. A modified gravity model is used as an empirical international trading model and panel data are used for investigating the effect of sanctions. Findings/Originality : In the absence of sanction, the effect of all independent variables, except for population, is as expected by the theory. Under the sanction the effect of GDP and population is lower than those of without sanction. The effect of foreign exchange fluctuation gets more intense during the sanction due to instability of financial sector. Distance, however, is not a significant variable to explain the bilateral trade both in the absence and under the sanction. The weak sanction period lowered the bilateral trade by 7.5 percent lower, but unexpectedly it was 12 percent higher during the strong sanction period.
{"title":"The effect of economic sanctions on the volume of trade in the agriculture sector of Iran and business partners in the EU","authors":"S. Y. Zeraatkish, Z. Farahmand","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL11.ISS1.ART10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL11.ISS1.ART10","url":null,"abstract":"Iranian economy was under pressured during the period of international trade sanctions. This paper investigates the effect of the economic sanctions on the bilateral agriculture trade of Iran with ten main trading partners in European Union between 2001 to 2015. A modified gravity model is used as an empirical international trading model and panel data are used for investigating the effect of sanctions. Findings/Originality : In the absence of sanction, the effect of all independent variables, except for population, is as expected by the theory. Under the sanction the effect of GDP and population is lower than those of without sanction. The effect of foreign exchange fluctuation gets more intense during the sanction due to instability of financial sector. Distance, however, is not a significant variable to explain the bilateral trade both in the absence and under the sanction. The weak sanction period lowered the bilateral trade by 7.5 percent lower, but unexpectedly it was 12 percent higher during the strong sanction period.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89006481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art3
H. Kuncoro
In this paper we address the quantitative measurement of credibility in fiscal policy in the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-201 6. This preliminary paper focuses on the deviations of the actual budget balances from the projections about these balances in the preceding years. The objective is to extract from these data insights into the credibility of the government fiscal policies. We found that fiscal policy as conducted by government is not perceived as credible. The targets set forward by government are often not met and usually the divergence is on the negative side. Revenue and spending are overestimated, leading to a deficit bias and growing indebtedness of government. Those results suggest feasibility to establish the fiscal council with independent powers to conduct the credible fiscal policy in order to maintain fiscal sustainability in the long-term.
{"title":"A feasibility study of establishing fiscal council in Indonesia","authors":"H. Kuncoro","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art3","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we address the quantitative measurement of credibility in fiscal policy in the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-201 6. This preliminary paper focuses on the deviations of the actual budget balances from the projections about these balances in the preceding years. The objective is to extract from these data insights into the credibility of the government fiscal policies. We found that fiscal policy as conducted by government is not perceived as credible. The targets set forward by government are often not met and usually the divergence is on the negative side. Revenue and spending are overestimated, leading to a deficit bias and growing indebtedness of government. Those results suggest feasibility to establish the fiscal council with independent powers to conduct the credible fiscal policy in order to maintain fiscal sustainability in the long-term.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86890562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART8
Elham Pourmokhtar, R. Moghaddasi, A. M. Nejad, S. Hosseini
The gradual disappearance of pastures due to overgrazing of cattle, high cost of meat (red and poultry) and gradual increasing domestic demand, so far, meat imports in Iran have been inevitable to meet domestic needs. In this article, the authors have used RSDAIDS model, the economic factors (meat prices and costs) and non-economic factors (prevalence of diseases) affecting the demand for meat (beef and poultry) during the years 2002-16 have been investigated. The results of this study shed light on Iran consumer preferences with regard to imported meat. This is the first study that analyzes the Iran meat demand differentiated by source. In this study, it was observed that Brazil, United Arab Emirates, Ireland and Turkey were the most gainer from an increase in the size of the imported meat market of Iran. Also, these countries had a competitive advantage compared with other export sources.
{"title":"Meat demand model in Iran: a restricted source-differentiated almost ideal demand system approach","authors":"Elham Pourmokhtar, R. Moghaddasi, A. M. Nejad, S. Hosseini","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART8","url":null,"abstract":"The gradual disappearance of pastures due to overgrazing of cattle, high cost of meat (red and poultry) and gradual increasing domestic demand, so far, meat imports in Iran have been inevitable to meet domestic needs. In this article, the authors have used RSDAIDS model, the economic factors (meat prices and costs) and non-economic factors (prevalence of diseases) affecting the demand for meat (beef and poultry) during the years 2002-16 have been investigated. The results of this study shed light on Iran consumer preferences with regard to imported meat. This is the first study that analyzes the Iran meat demand differentiated by source. In this study, it was observed that Brazil, United Arab Emirates, Ireland and Turkey were the most gainer from an increase in the size of the imported meat market of Iran. Also, these countries had a competitive advantage compared with other export sources.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"199 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75570850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art7
M. N. R. Al Arif
{"title":"Spin-off, market structure, and deposit funds: case in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry","authors":"M. N. R. Al Arif","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74560590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-16DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART9
I. Mukhlis, Isnawati Hidayah, Sariyani Sariyani
This study has the aims to analyse the relationship between economic agglomeration and economic growth to income inequality that occurs in regional development post-implementation of regional autonomy policy in East Java District / City of Indonesia in the year of 2011-2015. The method of analysis used is Panel Data with Random Effect Model. The result of the research concludes that economic agglomeration has significantly and positively affect on the level of income inequality that occurs in the regional economy. However, economic growth has no significant effect on income inequality in regional economy in East Java Province.
{"title":"Economic agglomeration, economic growth and income inequality in regional economy","authors":"I. Mukhlis, Isnawati Hidayah, Sariyani Sariyani","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART9","url":null,"abstract":"This study has the aims to analyse the relationship between economic agglomeration and economic growth to income inequality that occurs in regional development post-implementation of regional autonomy policy in East Java District / City of Indonesia in the year of 2011-2015. The method of analysis used is Panel Data with Random Effect Model. The result of the research concludes that economic agglomeration has significantly and positively affect on the level of income inequality that occurs in the regional economy. However, economic growth has no significant effect on income inequality in regional economy in East Java Province.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91127744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-02DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART6
Fina Sri Agustina
This paper analyzes the effects of import competition on Indonesian local labor markets in term of manufacturing employment share, non-manufacturing employment share, unemployment rate, and wages. A rapid increase of globalization has caused many countries including Indonesia experienced a significant increase in imports, which lead to a tougher import competition. Using data of imports and 430 districts in Indonesia in the period of 2007-2013, we found that import competition has negatively affected manufacturing employment share, non-manufacturing employment share, and wages. It also increased unemployment. In addition, the highest impact was mainly driven by imports of consumption goods
{"title":"Import competition and local labor markets: the case of Indonesia","authors":"Fina Sri Agustina","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART6","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of import competition on Indonesian local labor markets in term of manufacturing employment share, non-manufacturing employment share, unemployment rate, and wages. A rapid increase of globalization has caused many countries including Indonesia experienced a significant increase in imports, which lead to a tougher import competition. Using data of imports and 430 districts in Indonesia in the period of 2007-2013, we found that import competition has negatively affected manufacturing employment share, non-manufacturing employment share, and wages. It also increased unemployment. In addition, the highest impact was mainly driven by imports of consumption goods","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"115 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88261620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-02DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART2
Rudy Badrudin, Manggar Wulan Kusuma, Ranti Yulia Wardani
This study aims to determine whether there is an inclusive economic development in Sulawesi Island. Source data used are secondary data from the financial statements of the Local Government regency and city in Sulawesi Island in 2009-2016. The data analysis technique used is the analysis Partial Least Square were tested using samples 9 different areas. The results showed that 1) general allocation fund has positive effect on capital expenditure; 2) own source revenue has positive effect on capital expenditure; 3) capital expenditure has positive effect on economic growth; 4) economic growth has negative effect on welfare of society; and 5) economic growth has negative effect on poverty
{"title":"The inclusive economic development model in Sulawesi island","authors":"Rudy Badrudin, Manggar Wulan Kusuma, Ranti Yulia Wardani","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART2","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to determine whether there is an inclusive economic development in Sulawesi Island. Source data used are secondary data from the financial statements of the Local Government regency and city in Sulawesi Island in 2009-2016. The data analysis technique used is the analysis Partial Least Square were tested using samples 9 different areas. The results showed that 1) general allocation fund has positive effect on capital expenditure; 2) own source revenue has positive effect on capital expenditure; 3) capital expenditure has positive effect on economic growth; 4) economic growth has negative effect on welfare of society; and 5) economic growth has negative effect on poverty","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88165239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-02DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART5
Faaza Fakhrunnas, W. Dari, Mustika Noor Mifrahi
This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic factors and risk-taking behavior in a dual banking system. Adopting a panel cointegration approach, this research posits macroeconomic factors as exogenous variables and risk-taking behavior as endogenous variables. With having 468 quarterly-observations consisting of 18 banks in Indonesia during 2010-Q4 to 2017-Q1, it finds that the risk-taking behavior of the banks has a long-term relationship with macroeconomic factors. Moreover, conventional bank has long-term relationship to macroeconomic nonetheless it results inversely to Islamic bank. In terms of bank-specified characteristics, bank size and equity to asset ratio are substantial factors for the banks’ risk mitigation.
{"title":"Macroeconomic effect and risk-taking behavior in a dual banking system","authors":"Faaza Fakhrunnas, W. Dari, Mustika Noor Mifrahi","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART5","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic factors and risk-taking behavior in a dual banking system. Adopting a panel cointegration approach, this research posits macroeconomic factors as exogenous variables and risk-taking behavior as endogenous variables. With having 468 quarterly-observations consisting of 18 banks in Indonesia during 2010-Q4 to 2017-Q1, it finds that the risk-taking behavior of the banks has a long-term relationship with macroeconomic factors. Moreover, conventional bank has long-term relationship to macroeconomic nonetheless it results inversely to Islamic bank. In terms of bank-specified characteristics, bank size and equity to asset ratio are substantial factors for the banks’ risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74014366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-02DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART4
Rini Yayuk Priyati
This paper reviews the determinants of global palm oil trade using the gravity model. This model helps to explain how the shift in demand for palm oil has affected trade flows among trading partners. We decompose the effects of growth in the regional markets, location, and the reduction in the palm oil price relative to other edible oils, on palm oil exports. We find that standard variables suggested by the gravity literature, such as the growth of GDP, GDP per capita, and location, are indeed important determinants of palm oil trade. Given the preceding results, we simulate whether the economic growth of Indonesia’s trading partners can explain the growth in palm oil export demand from Indonesia. The simulation results for top ten Indonesia’s trading partners suggest that the growth of palm oil imports is a great deal higher than the growth of income for all countries.
{"title":"Determinants of global palm oil demand: A gravity approach","authors":"Rini Yayuk Priyati","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART4","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the determinants of global palm oil trade using the gravity model. This model helps to explain how the shift in demand for palm oil has affected trade flows among trading partners. We decompose the effects of growth in the regional markets, location, and the reduction in the palm oil price relative to other edible oils, on palm oil exports. We find that standard variables suggested by the gravity literature, such as the growth of GDP, GDP per capita, and location, are indeed important determinants of palm oil trade. Given the preceding results, we simulate whether the economic growth of Indonesia’s trading partners can explain the growth in palm oil export demand from Indonesia. The simulation results for top ten Indonesia’s trading partners suggest that the growth of palm oil imports is a great deal higher than the growth of income for all countries.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73965493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-02DOI: 10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART1
J. Mariyono
Rice is still a staple food for the people of Indonesia. If Indonesia relies on imported rice, it will be very politically vulnerable if there is a shortage of rice supply in the international market. Therefore, the productivity of rice farming should be kept rising in line with the rate of population increase. This paper analyzes the growth of total factor productivity of paddy farming efforts. Total productivity is decomposed into four parts: the advancement of technology, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency and the effect of business scale. If each component of productivity growth is known, it will be determined strategies to increase rice production. Data analysis using secondary data published by the Indonsian Statistics Agency (BPS). Analyses were performed using an econometric approach. The results show that growth in total factor productivity declined with the slowdown. Positive contributor to the growth of total factor productivity is the change in the technical and business scale effects; whereas negative contributor is the technical and allocative efficiency. Growth in rice production is because of growth in the use of inputs and other factors such as the expansion and increase in cropping index. The growth in total factor productivity can be increased by improving technical and allocative efficiencies.
{"title":"Decomposed total factor productivity of Indonesian rice production","authors":"J. Mariyono","doi":"10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/EJEM.VOL10.ISS2.ART1","url":null,"abstract":"Rice is still a staple food for the people of Indonesia. If Indonesia relies on imported rice, it will be very politically vulnerable if there is a shortage of rice supply in the international market. Therefore, the productivity of rice farming should be kept rising in line with the rate of population increase. This paper analyzes the growth of total factor productivity of paddy farming efforts. Total productivity is decomposed into four parts: the advancement of technology, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency and the effect of business scale. If each component of productivity growth is known, it will be determined strategies to increase rice production. Data analysis using secondary data published by the Indonsian Statistics Agency (BPS). Analyses were performed using an econometric approach. The results show that growth in total factor productivity declined with the slowdown. Positive contributor to the growth of total factor productivity is the change in the technical and business scale effects; whereas negative contributor is the technical and allocative efficiency. Growth in rice production is because of growth in the use of inputs and other factors such as the expansion and increase in cropping index. The growth in total factor productivity can be increased by improving technical and allocative efficiencies.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2018-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83341239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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