Pub Date : 2022-04-27DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art6
Emin Efecan Aktaş, Pelin Varol Iyidogan
Purpose ― The paper queries the impacts of income inequality on economic growth in selected advanced and emerging market economies by adopting nonlinearity and endogeneity. Methods ― This research analysis is based on a balanced panel from 1996 to 2018 and employs the dynamic panel threshold analysis after baseline estimations with the fixed-effect, system Generalized Method of Moments, and difference Generalized Method of Moments. Findings ― This study finds a nonlinearity between income inequality and economic growth. Income inequality has a significant threshold effect on the growth of both panels. Besides, the threshold effect of emerging market countries is higher than the level for advanced countries. This means emerging market economies are negatively affected above the estimated threshold value according to the advanced economies. Implication ― This paper supports that inequality may harm much more economic growth above a specific level. On the other hand, these distorting effects are related to the other economic issues of countries, such as government spending, inflation, export of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment. Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the nonlinear effects of income inequality and different aspects of economic growth above or below the estimated threshold value, thereby providing cross-country comparability and endogeneity.
{"title":"Nonlinear effects of ıncome ınequality on economic growth: A comparative analysis of selected countries","authors":"Emin Efecan Aktaş, Pelin Varol Iyidogan","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― The paper queries the impacts of income inequality on economic growth in selected advanced and emerging market economies by adopting nonlinearity and endogeneity.\u0000Methods ― This research analysis is based on a balanced panel from 1996 to 2018 and employs the dynamic panel threshold analysis after baseline estimations with the fixed-effect, system Generalized Method of Moments, and difference Generalized Method of Moments.\u0000Findings ― This study finds a nonlinearity between income inequality and economic growth. Income inequality has a significant threshold effect on the growth of both panels. Besides, the threshold effect of emerging market countries is higher than the level for advanced countries. This means emerging market economies are negatively affected above the estimated threshold value according to the advanced economies.\u0000Implication ― This paper supports that inequality may harm much more economic growth above a specific level. On the other hand, these distorting effects are related to the other economic issues of countries, such as government spending, inflation, export of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment.\u0000Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the nonlinear effects of income inequality and different aspects of economic growth above or below the estimated threshold value, thereby providing cross-country comparability and endogeneity.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76067376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-27DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art3
V. Dang, H. Nguyen
Purpose ─ The paper empirically explores the conditioning role of loan portfolio diversification in the monetary policy pass-through via the bank lending and risk-taking channels. Methods ─ Data of Vietnamese commercial banks during 2007–2019 is employed to perform regression using the two-step system generalized method of moments in dynamic panel models. For robustness, we approach different choices of monetary policy indicators, ranging from interest-based tools to quantitative-based policy, and consider a rich set of sectoral exposure measures to proxy loan portfolio diversification. Findings ─ Lower interest rates or greater liquidity injection during monetary expansion may increase bank lending and bank risk, thus confirming the working of the bank lending and risk-taking channels of monetary policy transmission. Notably, the potency of these banking channels may be weakened for banks diversifying loan portfolios more into various economic sectors. Implication ─ The findings call for monetary authorities to concentrate on certain types of banks, depending on their loan portfolios when setting monetary policy. When managing banking supervision, banking supervisors should also acknowledge the tradeoff between bank lending and bank risk in response to monetary shocks. Originality ─ For the first time, this paper explores the conditional role of loan portfolio composition and thus further supports the recent upsurge in empirical studies highlighting the role of business models in monetary policy pass-through.
{"title":"Does sectoral loan portfolio composition matter for the monetary policy transmission?","authors":"V. Dang, H. Nguyen","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art3","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ─ The paper empirically explores the conditioning role of loan portfolio diversification in the monetary policy pass-through via the bank lending and risk-taking channels.\u0000Methods ─ Data of Vietnamese commercial banks during 2007–2019 is employed to perform regression using the two-step system generalized method of moments in dynamic panel models. For robustness, we approach different choices of monetary policy indicators, ranging from interest-based tools to quantitative-based policy, and consider a rich set of sectoral exposure measures to proxy loan portfolio diversification.\u0000Findings ─ Lower interest rates or greater liquidity injection during monetary expansion may increase bank lending and bank risk, thus confirming the working of the bank lending and risk-taking channels of monetary policy transmission. Notably, the potency of these banking channels may be weakened for banks diversifying loan portfolios more into various economic sectors.\u0000Implication ─ The findings call for monetary authorities to concentrate on certain types of banks, depending on their loan portfolios when setting monetary policy. When managing banking supervision, banking supervisors should also acknowledge the tradeoff between bank lending and bank risk in response to monetary shocks.\u0000Originality ─ For the first time, this paper explores the conditional role of loan portfolio composition and thus further supports the recent upsurge in empirical studies highlighting the role of business models in monetary policy pass-through.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83686364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-27DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art8
Asma Fiaz, Nabila Khurshid, A. Satti
Purpose ―Current paper assesses the impact of macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's economic growth. Method ― This study analyzed the data using the Markov Regime switching (MS) model using monthly data for 1981-2020. Firstly, BDS and CUSUM square tests were applied to detect the non-linearity of the model. Results ―The model is non-linear, so the Markov regime-switching model is used for analysis. Each regime's mean and variance are highly significant and show a high growth regime with high volatility and a low growth regime with low volatility. Furthermore, the results show that inflation, interest rate, and trade openness negatively impact while real effective exchange rates positively affect development in both regimes. The negative effect of interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and trade openness become more pronounced in low growth regimes. Implication ― This study suggests that policymakers should consider the non-linear behaviour of macroeconomics. This will help to formulate better policies for the economy's economic growth. Originality ―The current research adds to the existing literature by identifying the non-linear effect of growth indicators on economic growth, which was previously neglected in the case of Pakistan.
{"title":"Revisiting the macroeconomic variables and economic growth nexus: A Markov regime-switching approach","authors":"Asma Fiaz, Nabila Khurshid, A. Satti","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ―Current paper assesses the impact of macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's economic growth.\u0000Method ― This study analyzed the data using the Markov Regime switching (MS) model using monthly data for 1981-2020. Firstly, BDS and CUSUM square tests were applied to detect the non-linearity of the model.\u0000Results ―The model is non-linear, so the Markov regime-switching model is used for analysis. Each regime's mean and variance are highly significant and show a high growth regime with high volatility and a low growth regime with low volatility. Furthermore, the results show that inflation, interest rate, and trade openness negatively impact while real effective exchange rates positively affect development in both regimes. The negative effect of interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and trade openness become more pronounced in low growth regimes.\u0000Implication ― This study suggests that policymakers should consider the non-linear behaviour of macroeconomics. This will help to formulate better policies for the economy's economic growth.\u0000Originality ―The current research adds to the existing literature by identifying the non-linear effect of growth indicators on economic growth, which was previously neglected in the case of Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78503675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art2
James Temitope Dada
Purpose ― This study investigates the asymmetric effect of real exchange rates on the economic growth of twenty African countries for the period 2005 to 2019.Design/Method/Approach ― A refined method of Granger and Yoon (2002) was used to decompose real exchange into appreciation and depreciation. To address the problem of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, a two-steps system generalized method of moments, Driscoll-Kraay estimator, and Augmented Mean group were used.Findings ― This study established the presence of asymmetries in the real exchange rate in the region. Further, the study found that real exchange rate appreciation inhibits economic growth while real exchange rate depreciation is beneficial to growth in the region. The results are robust to different estimation techniques.Practical Implications ― The outcome of this study supports the traditional view of exchange rates on macroeconomic variables. Hence, findings from this study can help investors and policymakers in the region to better understand the dynamics of the exchange rate and its effect on economic growth.Originality/Value ― This study enriches the literature on the relationship between exchange rate and growth, especially in Africa using a refined approach to decompose exchange rate into appreciation and depreciation.
{"title":"On the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate on growth: Evidence from Africa","authors":"James Temitope Dada","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art2","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This study investigates the asymmetric effect of real exchange rates on the economic growth of twenty African countries for the period 2005 to 2019.Design/Method/Approach ― A refined method of Granger and Yoon (2002) was used to decompose real exchange into appreciation and depreciation. To address the problem of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, a two-steps system generalized method of moments, Driscoll-Kraay estimator, and Augmented Mean group were used.Findings ― This study established the presence of asymmetries in the real exchange rate in the region. Further, the study found that real exchange rate appreciation inhibits economic growth while real exchange rate depreciation is beneficial to growth in the region. The results are robust to different estimation techniques.Practical Implications ― The outcome of this study supports the traditional view of exchange rates on macroeconomic variables. Hence, findings from this study can help investors and policymakers in the region to better understand the dynamics of the exchange rate and its effect on economic growth.Originality/Value ― This study enriches the literature on the relationship between exchange rate and growth, especially in Africa using a refined approach to decompose exchange rate into appreciation and depreciation.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"7 14","pages":"15-28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art1
O. Osabuohien-Irabor
Purpose ― Reasons why Multinational Enterprise (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment (hereafter referred to as FDI) abroad have been of great interest to policy markets, academia and international portfolio investors. This examines FDI inflow motives to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach ― This research paper applies both the static and dynamic panel methodologies such as SYS-GMM, fixed effects, and pooled OLS estimators to investigate the motivational factors of MNEs FDI inflows to MENA countries. Findings ― Although specificity applies to countries, estimated results suggest that MNEs in the MENA region are predominantly interested in serving both home and host markets. Other motives such as efficiency-seeking FDI vary across countries, indicating that FDI motives are not homogeneous among region members. This paper provides useful insight for both firms and host countries in the region. Originality/value ― This research paper investigates the factors that motivate MNEs to consider FDI decisions in MENA countries. Rather than investigate the individual countries within the region as done in existing literature, this research paper simultaneously examines MNEs' investment motivations in the MENA region. The findings are significant, plausible and in line with the economic development of most countries in the region.
{"title":"Foreign direct investment inflow: The drivers and motivations in MENA Region","authors":"O. Osabuohien-Irabor","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art1","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― Reasons why Multinational Enterprise (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment (hereafter referred to as FDI) abroad have been of great interest to policy markets, academia and international portfolio investors. This examines FDI inflow motives to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach ― This research paper applies both the static and dynamic panel methodologies such as SYS-GMM, fixed effects, and pooled OLS estimators to investigate the motivational factors of MNEs FDI inflows to MENA countries. Findings ― Although specificity applies to countries, estimated results suggest that MNEs in the MENA region are predominantly interested in serving both home and host markets. Other motives such as efficiency-seeking FDI vary across countries, indicating that FDI motives are not homogeneous among region members. This paper provides useful insight for both firms and host countries in the region. Originality/value ― This research paper investigates the factors that motivate MNEs to consider FDI decisions in MENA countries. Rather than investigate the individual countries within the region as done in existing literature, this research paper simultaneously examines MNEs' investment motivations in the MENA region. The findings are significant, plausible and in line with the economic development of most countries in the region.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"105 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72822608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art5
Hale Akbulut
Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting inflation in the case of Turkey and to give a new and also complementary approach to time series models. Methods: This paper forecasts inflation in Turkey by using time-series and machine learning (ML) models. The data is spanning from the period 2006:M1 to 2020:M12. Findings: According to our findings, although the linear-based Ridge and Lasso regression algorithms perform worse than the VAR model, the multilayer perceptron algorithm gives satisfactory results that are close to the results of the time series algorithm. In this direction, non-linear machine learning models are thought to be a reliable complementary method for estimating inflation in emerging economies. It is also predicted that it can be considered as an alternative method as the amount of data and computational power increase. Implication: The findings are expected to be useful as a guide for central banks and policy-makers in emerging economies with volatile inflation rates. Originality: We evaluate the forecasting performance of ML models against each other and a time series model, and investigate possible improvements upon the naive model. So, this is the first study in the field, which uses both linear and nonlinear ML methods to make a comparison with the time series inflation forecasts for Turkey.
{"title":"Forecasting inflation in Turkey: A comparison of time-series and machine learning models","authors":"Hale Akbulut","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art5","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting inflation in the case of Turkey and to give a new and also complementary approach to time series models. Methods: This paper forecasts inflation in Turkey by using time-series and machine learning (ML) models. The data is spanning from the period 2006:M1 to 2020:M12. Findings: According to our findings, although the linear-based Ridge and Lasso regression algorithms perform worse than the VAR model, the multilayer perceptron algorithm gives satisfactory results that are close to the results of the time series algorithm. In this direction, non-linear machine learning models are thought to be a reliable complementary method for estimating inflation in emerging economies. It is also predicted that it can be considered as an alternative method as the amount of data and computational power increase. Implication: The findings are expected to be useful as a guide for central banks and policy-makers in emerging economies with volatile inflation rates. Originality: We evaluate the forecasting performance of ML models against each other and a time series model, and investigate possible improvements upon the naive model. So, this is the first study in the field, which uses both linear and nonlinear ML methods to make a comparison with the time series inflation forecasts for Turkey.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81169628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art2
Ridwan Mukaila
Purpose - This study examines the nexus between the real effective exchange rate misalignment (REERM) and rubber exports in Nigeria. The effects of equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and some economic fundamentals on rubber exports are also investigated. Methods - Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are employed as methods of data analysis. Findings - The results show that a long-run relationship exists between REERM and rubber export. REERM influenced rubber export negatively while ERER had a positive effect on rubber export. The past values of REERM can be used to predict the present volume of rubber export, and the past values of ERER and rubber export can be used to forecast the present values of each other. Trade openness positively influences rubber export while the term of trade has a negative effect on rubber export. Implication - REERM worsens the performance of rubber export in Nigeria while ERER improves its performance. Thus, rubber export can be enhanced through measures such as trade openness, improved term of trade and monitoring of exchange rate to reduce the REERM and maintain a stabilized equilibrium exchange rate system. Originality - This study focuses on the effect of deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium, ERER and economic fundamentals on rubber export which has not been previously investigated.
{"title":"Nexus between real effective exchange rate misalignment and rubber export in Nigeria","authors":"Ridwan Mukaila","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art2","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study examines the nexus between the real effective exchange rate misalignment (REERM) and rubber exports in Nigeria. The effects of equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and some economic fundamentals on rubber exports are also investigated. Methods - Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are employed as methods of data analysis. Findings - The results show that a long-run relationship exists between REERM and rubber export. REERM influenced rubber export negatively while ERER had a positive effect on rubber export. The past values of REERM can be used to predict the present volume of rubber export, and the past values of ERER and rubber export can be used to forecast the present values of each other. Trade openness positively influences rubber export while the term of trade has a negative effect on rubber export. Implication - REERM worsens the performance of rubber export in Nigeria while ERER improves its performance. Thus, rubber export can be enhanced through measures such as trade openness, improved term of trade and monitoring of exchange rate to reduce the REERM and maintain a stabilized equilibrium exchange rate system. Originality - This study focuses on the effect of deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium, ERER and economic fundamentals on rubber export which has not been previously investigated.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91222462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4
H. Kuncoro
Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not. Methods - This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models. Findings - The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of. Implication - The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth. Originality - This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.
{"title":"The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations","authors":"H. Kuncoro","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not. Methods - This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models. Findings - The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of. Implication - The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth. Originality - This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75124337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8
P. Trinh, Hoang Thi Thuy
Purpose - This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth in 44 emerging markets and developing countries. Methods - The threshold regression methodology is employed to analyze data for the period between 1995 and 2015. Export diversifications in terms of both geography and product are measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman market concentration index and overall Theil index, respectively. Findings - The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Above the threshold, diversified export markets and products boost economic growth. Below the threshold, the positive relationship between diversification in both markets and products and growth is insignificant. Implications - The research implies that export diversification strategy in emerging markets and developing countries should be considered carefully when the level of export diversification is higher than the threshold, which usually occurs in the later stage of diversification. Originality - The study investigates nonlinearity in terms of degrees of diversification instead of degrees of development. With this approach, the threshold is identified to show how economic growth is affected under different regimes.
{"title":"Export diversification and economic growth: A threshold regression approach for emerging markets and developing countries","authors":"P. Trinh, Hoang Thi Thuy","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth in 44 emerging markets and developing countries. Methods - The threshold regression methodology is employed to analyze data for the period between 1995 and 2015. Export diversifications in terms of both geography and product are measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman market concentration index and overall Theil index, respectively. Findings - The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Above the threshold, diversified export markets and products boost economic growth. Below the threshold, the positive relationship between diversification in both markets and products and growth is insignificant. Implications - The research implies that export diversification strategy in emerging markets and developing countries should be considered carefully when the level of export diversification is higher than the threshold, which usually occurs in the later stage of diversification. Originality - The study investigates nonlinearity in terms of degrees of diversification instead of degrees of development. With this approach, the threshold is identified to show how economic growth is affected under different regimes.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82995566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6
T. Mulyaningsih, Dhian Adhitya, Amelia Choya Tia Rosalia
Purpose - This study examines the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Importantly, this study captures the importance of observing cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills associated with personality traits in determining earnings. Methods - A revised Mincer Model serves as a theoretical framework to explain the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Using the Indonesian labour data from the 5 th wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), the 2-Stage Least Squares is employed to measure the effects of schooling, cognitive and non-cognitive skills on earnings. Findings - The results show that schooling and skills, both cognitive and personality traits determine the labour market outcomes. In addition, the relationship between education and earning is nonlinear, suggesting that the returns on education varied across education levels. Implication - The policy should aim to enhance human capital by improving knowledge, cognitive and non-cognitive capacities to assist students in achieving their full potentials. Originality - This study contributes to the literature by measuring the effects of unobservable cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills on earnings in developing countries absent in the previous studies. This study also utilizes the instrumental variable approach of 2-Stage Least Squares to deal with omitted variable bias and the endogeneity problem in the basic Mincer model.
{"title":"Education, skills and labour market outcome in Indonesia: An instrumental variable approach","authors":"T. Mulyaningsih, Dhian Adhitya, Amelia Choya Tia Rosalia","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This study examines the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Importantly, this study captures the importance of observing cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills associated with personality traits in determining earnings. Methods - A revised Mincer Model serves as a theoretical framework to explain the contribution of schooling and skills to earnings. Using the Indonesian labour data from the 5 th wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), the 2-Stage Least Squares is employed to measure the effects of schooling, cognitive and non-cognitive skills on earnings. Findings - The results show that schooling and skills, both cognitive and personality traits determine the labour market outcomes. In addition, the relationship between education and earning is nonlinear, suggesting that the returns on education varied across education levels. Implication - The policy should aim to enhance human capital by improving knowledge, cognitive and non-cognitive capacities to assist students in achieving their full potentials. Originality - This study contributes to the literature by measuring the effects of unobservable cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills on earnings in developing countries absent in the previous studies. This study also utilizes the instrumental variable approach of 2-Stage Least Squares to deal with omitted variable bias and the endogeneity problem in the basic Mincer model.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":"186 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77034494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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