Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1
Yusuf Shamsuddeen Nadabo
Purpose ― The study aims to investigate the impact of remittances on financial sector development in Nigeria using data from 1990 to 2021.Method ― The study examines the variables' relationship using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda Yamamoto (TY) Causality.Findings ― The study finds that remittances have a positive and significant long-run impact on financial sector development. Total reserves and imports of goods and services have a negative and significant long-run impact. In the short run, remittances and deposit interest rates positively and significantly impact financial sector development, while total reserves and total population have negative and significant impacts. The Toda-Yamamoto causality result indicates a two-way causal relationship between financial sector development and remittances.Implication ― The study recommends that the government employs policies encouraging channeling remittances through a formal banking system, as well as ensuring that such remittances received are channeled to finance productive investment, hence financial development.Originality ― The novelty of this research relates to the use of the three main indicators of remittances in an economy, which are the import of goods and services, total reserves, and deposit interest rates, to examine its impact on financial sector development in Nigeria
{"title":"Revisiting the nexus between remittances and financial sector development in Nigeria","authors":"Yusuf Shamsuddeen Nadabo","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art1","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― The study aims to investigate the impact of remittances on financial sector development in Nigeria using data from 1990 to 2021.Method ― The study examines the variables' relationship using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda Yamamoto (TY) Causality.Findings ― The study finds that remittances have a positive and significant long-run impact on financial sector development. Total reserves and imports of goods and services have a negative and significant long-run impact. In the short run, remittances and deposit interest rates positively and significantly impact financial sector development, while total reserves and total population have negative and significant impacts. The Toda-Yamamoto causality result indicates a two-way causal relationship between financial sector development and remittances.Implication ― The study recommends that the government employs policies encouraging channeling remittances through a formal banking system, as well as ensuring that such remittances received are channeled to finance productive investment, hence financial development.Originality ― The novelty of this research relates to the use of the three main indicators of remittances in an economy, which are the import of goods and services, total reserves, and deposit interest rates, to examine its impact on financial sector development in Nigeria","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135808970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7
Çağlayan Aslan, Senay Acikgoz
Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows. Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM. Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions. Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity. Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.
{"title":"Are the global economic policy uncertainties blocking the export flows of emerging markets? A heterogeneous panel SVAR analysis","authors":"Çağlayan Aslan, Senay Acikgoz","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art7","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows.\u0000Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM.\u0000Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions.\u0000Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity.\u0000Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77809515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6
Ali Irushad, Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker
Purpose – This paper examines factors that determine the unemployment rate in the Maldives. Methods – This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in capturing long and short-run associations among the chosen variables. It uses some macroeconomic variables, namely unemployment rate, population, economic growth, foreign direct investment, external debts, inflation rate, and expatriate workers. Findings – The empirical results suggest that except for expatriate workers, all the variables are significant determinants of unemployment rate in the long run. The study found that economic growth and inflation would negatively and significantly contribute to unemployment rate when they are combined. This explains the unemployment nexus which follows the Phillips curve and Okun’s law relationship provides the presence of both these hypotheses in the Maldives in the short-run and long-run. In addition, an increase in population and external debts worsens the unemployment situation in the Maldives. Although expatriate workers are not significant in the long run, the results reveal that they have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the short run. Implications – This result implies that the Maldivian government should encourage locals in the country to participate in the labor force and limit the participation of expatriate workers in an industry that has a shortage of skilled expertise. Originality – This study expands our understanding of key determinants of the unemployment rate in Maldives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the pioneer empirical study to assess the issue.
{"title":"What drives the unemployment rate in Maldives? An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach","authors":"Ali Irushad, Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This paper examines factors that determine the unemployment rate in the Maldives.\u0000Methods – This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in capturing long and short-run associations among the chosen variables. It uses some macroeconomic variables, namely unemployment rate, population, economic growth, foreign direct investment, external debts, inflation rate, and expatriate workers.\u0000Findings – The empirical results suggest that except for expatriate workers, all the variables are significant determinants of unemployment rate in the long run. The study found that economic growth and inflation would negatively and significantly contribute to unemployment rate when they are combined. This explains the unemployment nexus which follows the Phillips curve and Okun’s law relationship provides the presence of both these hypotheses in the Maldives in the short-run and long-run. In addition, an increase in population and external debts worsens the unemployment situation in the Maldives. Although expatriate workers are not significant in the long run, the results reveal that they have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the short run.\u0000Implications – This result implies that the Maldivian government should encourage locals in the country to participate in the labor force and limit the participation of expatriate workers in an industry that has a shortage of skilled expertise.\u0000Originality – This study expands our understanding of key determinants of the unemployment rate in Maldives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the pioneer empirical study to assess the issue.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90274119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art8
A. K. Suresh, B. Seth, Samir Ranjan Behera, D. Rath
Purpose ─ This article explores the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth for nine emerging market economies using annual data from 1991-92 to 2019-20. Method ─ This paper distinguishes itself from the existing literature through the application of co-integration tests, vector error correction, DOLS and FMOLS for an empirical investigation of a unique panel data set of select emerging economies across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. A bi-directional causal long-run relationship between economic growth and government expenditure, as well as between government expenditure and government revenue, was found using standard panel co-integration tests. Findings ─ The long-run elasticities computed using VECM were confirmed from DOLS as well as FMOLS estimates. A one per cent increase in expenditure and revenue, in the long run, would result in an increase in GDP by 0.94 and 0.90 per cent, respectively. Similarly, an increase in GDP by one per cent would lead to an increase in government expenditure by 1.1 per cent. On the other hand, an increase in government revenue by one per cent would cause a corresponding increase in government expenditure by nearly one per cent. The findings of this research point to a positive association between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth, which will be valuable to policymakers. Contribution ─ Our combination of country selection covering economies from different continents is a first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. Another contribution is the application of panel cointegration and panel error correction techniques to fully use the panel data set, while most previous studies utilised the typical time series modelling with individual time series data.
{"title":"An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth in selected EMEs","authors":"A. K. Suresh, B. Seth, Samir Ranjan Behera, D. Rath","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ─ This article explores the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth for nine emerging market economies using annual data from 1991-92 to 2019-20.\u0000Method ─ This paper distinguishes itself from the existing literature through the application of co-integration tests, vector error correction, DOLS and FMOLS for an empirical investigation of a unique panel data set of select emerging economies across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. A bi-directional causal long-run relationship between economic growth and government expenditure, as well as between government expenditure and government revenue, was found using standard panel co-integration tests.\u0000Findings ─ The long-run elasticities computed using VECM were confirmed from DOLS as well as FMOLS estimates. A one per cent increase in expenditure and revenue, in the long run, would result in an increase in GDP by 0.94 and 0.90 per cent, respectively. Similarly, an increase in GDP by one per cent would lead to an increase in government expenditure by 1.1 per cent. On the other hand, an increase in government revenue by one per cent would cause a corresponding increase in government expenditure by nearly one per cent. The findings of this research point to a positive association between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth, which will be valuable to policymakers.\u0000Contribution ─ Our combination of country selection covering economies from different continents is a first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. Another contribution is the application of panel cointegration and panel error correction techniques to fully use the panel data set, while most previous studies utilised the typical time series modelling with individual time series data.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82822489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-11DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art4
T. Ojeyinka, Anthonia Emoshokemhe Aliemhe
Purpose ― This study differs from previous studies by examining the impact of oil price components, namely oil demand, global oil supply, and oil market-specific demand, on the stock returns of five sectors (Banking, Consumer goods, Industrial, Insurance, and Oil and Gas) listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Design/Method/Approach ― The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on monthly data between January 2000 and December 2019. Findings ― The paper finds evidence of a long-run relationship between sectoral market returns and oil price changes in Nigeria. Further evidence from the study reveals that oil-specific demand and global oil demand have positive and significant effects on the aggregate stock returns and the returns of the sampled sectors. On the other hand, the impact of the global oil supply is inconsequential on the aggregate stock returns and sectoral returns except for the Oil and Gas sector, where the effect of global oil production is positive and significant. Implication ― The study concludes that stock market returns in Nigeria are sensitive and vulnerable to changes in demand-side components of oil price. The study also highlights important policy implications to enhance the performance of the Nigerian stock market. Originality/Value ― The paper examines the impact of disaggregated oil prices on sectoral returns of the five listed sectors on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, which has not been explored in the literature.
{"title":"Disaggregated crude oil prices and stock market behaviour in Nigeria: Evidence from sectorial analysis","authors":"T. Ojeyinka, Anthonia Emoshokemhe Aliemhe","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art4","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This study differs from previous studies by examining the impact of oil price components, namely oil demand, global oil supply, and oil market-specific demand, on the stock returns of five sectors (Banking, Consumer goods, Industrial, Insurance, and Oil and Gas) listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.\u0000Design/Method/Approach ― The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on monthly data between January 2000 and December 2019.\u0000Findings ― The paper finds evidence of a long-run relationship between sectoral market returns and oil price changes in Nigeria. Further evidence from the study reveals that oil-specific demand and global oil demand have positive and significant effects on the aggregate stock returns and the returns of the sampled sectors. On the other hand, the impact of the global oil supply is inconsequential on the aggregate stock returns and sectoral returns except for the Oil and Gas sector, where the effect of global oil production is positive and significant.\u0000Implication ― The study concludes that stock market returns in Nigeria are sensitive and vulnerable to changes in demand-side components of oil price. The study also highlights important policy implications to enhance the performance of the Nigerian stock market.\u0000Originality/Value ― The paper examines the impact of disaggregated oil prices on sectoral returns of the five listed sectors on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, which has not been explored in the literature.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76607634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-11DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art5
Purpose ─ This paper analyzes the determinants of micro and small enterprise company performance and its employees in Indonesia using a data set covering 2010 – 2019. Method ─ This study uses the robust estimation of the panel data regression method to estimate an alternative least squares regression that does not require strict assumptions and is not sensitive to outliers. Findings ─ The study's findings are as follows: 1) Improving resources, markets, entrepreneurs, and institutions has different impacts on business performance and workers' compensation due to the complexity and size of businesses, 2) The formal education of micro and small business entrepreneurship and institutionalization of partnerships have improved workers' compensation but not business performance, 3) Improving resource access, market orientation, and policies indirectly implemented by the Creative Economy Agency have improved business performance but not workers' compensation. Therefore, programs aimed at enhancing productivity of entrepreneurs and workers through partnerships are a key factor in improving the competitiveness of micro and small enterprises. Originality ─ Four determinants of the business environment of micro and small enterprises were analyzed to determine their impact on entrepreneur and worker performance, in order to identify the key factors contributing to the successful empowerment of these businesses.
{"title":"Intensity of the creative economy agency and partnership in empowering micro and small enterprises","authors":"","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art5","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ─ This paper analyzes the determinants of micro and small enterprise company performance and its employees in Indonesia using a data set covering 2010 – 2019.\u0000Method ─ This study uses the robust estimation of the panel data regression method to estimate an alternative least squares regression that does not require strict assumptions and is not sensitive to outliers.\u0000Findings ─ The study's findings are as follows: 1) Improving resources, markets, entrepreneurs, and institutions has different impacts on business performance and workers' compensation due to the complexity and size of businesses, 2) The formal education of micro and small business entrepreneurship and institutionalization of partnerships have improved workers' compensation but not business performance, 3) Improving resource access, market orientation, and policies indirectly implemented by the Creative Economy Agency have improved business performance but not workers' compensation. Therefore, programs aimed at enhancing productivity of entrepreneurs and workers through partnerships are a key factor in improving the competitiveness of micro and small enterprises.\u0000Originality ─ Four determinants of the business environment of micro and small enterprises were analyzed to determine their impact on entrepreneur and worker performance, in order to identify the key factors contributing to the successful empowerment of these businesses.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82962134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-10DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3
A. Abimanyu, M. Imansyah, Muhammad Adisurya Pratama
Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model. Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit) Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis. Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies. Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.
{"title":"Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system","authors":"A. Abimanyu, M. Imansyah, Muhammad Adisurya Pratama","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model.\u0000Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit)\u0000Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis.\u0000Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies.\u0000Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81133579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-06DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art1
Selçuk Akçay
Purpose ― Over the past two decades since the 2000s, Turkey's private savings rates have decreased, which has become a concern for policymakers. In addition to considering the key determinants of private savings, this study primarily aims to quantify the linear and nonlinear impacts of financial development on private savings from 1980 to 2015. Method ― This study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality framework. Findings ― The main findings are as follows: 1) The ARDL bounds test supports the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between private savings and its determinants; 2) Financial development affects private savings nonlinearly in an inverted U-shaped pattern, and 3) No causality relationship is observed between private savings and financial development. Implication ― As financial development has an inverted U-shaped relationship with private savings, indicating that the complementary effect of financial development is replaced with a substitution effect after a certain threshold level, Turkish authorities should consider this evidence when tailoring policies regarding financial markets. Originality ― This study is the first to identify whether the relationship between private savings and financial development is linear or nonlinear in the context of an emerging economy in Turkey.
{"title":"The determinants of private savings in Turkey: The role of financial development","authors":"Selçuk Akçay","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art1","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― Over the past two decades since the 2000s, Turkey's private savings rates have decreased, which has become a concern for policymakers. In addition to considering the key determinants of private savings, this study primarily aims to quantify the linear and nonlinear impacts of financial development on private savings from 1980 to 2015.\u0000Method ― This study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality framework.\u0000Findings ― The main findings are as follows: 1) The ARDL bounds test supports the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between private savings and its determinants; 2) Financial development affects private savings nonlinearly in an inverted U-shaped pattern, and 3) No causality relationship is observed between private savings and financial development.\u0000Implication ― As financial development has an inverted U-shaped relationship with private savings, indicating that the complementary effect of financial development is replaced with a substitution effect after a certain threshold level, Turkish authorities should consider this evidence when tailoring policies regarding financial markets.\u0000Originality ― This study is the first to identify whether the relationship between private savings and financial development is linear or nonlinear in the context of an emerging economy in Turkey.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82947486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-06DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art2
Arab Dahir Hassan, Esra Dil
Purpose ― The main objective of this study is to explore the relationship between bilateral official development assistance and the export of Turkey to 18 Turkish aid recipient countries between 1998 and 2019. Methods ― The study employs the gravity model of international trade to capture the effect of official development assistance on Turkish export to its aid recipient countries and utilizes Panel data econometric analysis. Findings ― The official development assistance (ODA) remains statistically significant across the models, indicating that ODA is one of the significant drivers of Turkish bilateral trade with the aid recipient countries. Implications ― The study argues that Turkey applied ODA as a foreign policy tool to access new markets in the Middle East, Balkans, Africa, and Asia. Turkish exports to developing countries increased due to the upsurged country's foreign aid donation to its recipients. Originality ― This study deviates from other studies in the literature by empirically examining the relationship between bilateral Official development assistance and the export of Turkey.
{"title":"Empirical analysis of the impact of Turkish bilateral official development assistance on export","authors":"Arab Dahir Hassan, Esra Dil","doi":"10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art2","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose ― The main objective of this study is to explore the relationship between bilateral official development assistance and the export of Turkey to 18 Turkish aid recipient countries between 1998 and 2019.\u0000Methods ― The study employs the gravity model of international trade to capture the effect of official development assistance on Turkish export to its aid recipient countries and utilizes Panel data econometric analysis.\u0000Findings ― The official development assistance (ODA) remains statistically significant across the models, indicating that ODA is one of the significant drivers of Turkish bilateral trade with the aid recipient countries.\u0000Implications ― The study argues that Turkey applied ODA as a foreign policy tool to access new markets in the Middle East, Balkans, Africa, and Asia. Turkish exports to developing countries increased due to the upsurged country's foreign aid donation to its recipients.\u0000Originality ― This study deviates from other studies in the literature by empirically examining the relationship between bilateral Official development assistance and the export of Turkey.","PeriodicalId":41472,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal of Emerging Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81351472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-31DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art10
Adawiya Taufani, D. Hakim, W. Widyastutik
Purpose ― This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, real exchange rates, inflation, real interest rates, the balance of payments, and unemployment rates in four ASEAN countries, namely Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. Methods ― This research uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The oil price variable in this study was divided into two, namely, the increase and decrease in oil prices based on the Mork transformation. Findings ― The analysis showed that the impact of price increases tended to encourage the economy of Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia. The shock of falling oil prices tended to cause a decline in the economy of Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia. The shock of rising prices tended to hamper the economies of Indonesia and Thailand. The shock of falling oil prices did not always positively impact the economy of the importing country, especially for the balance of payments. Implication ― These results show that price shocks will produce different economic responses. Understanding a country's macroeconomic framework is important before implementing effective policies. Originality ― These results expand the literature on the impact of oil price shocks on macroeconomic indicators in developing countries and small open economies, while studies related to macroeconomics generally focus on growth and inflation. This study also distinguishes oil price shocks into rising and falling oil price shocks using the Mork transformation.
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