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Vulnerability of urban waters to emerging contaminants in India and Sri Lanka: Resilience framework and strategy 印度和斯里兰卡城市水域对新出现污染物的脆弱性:复原力框架和战略
Pub Date : 2019-11-13 DOI: 10.30852/sb.2019.799
Manish Kumar, T. Chaminda, R. Honda, H. Furumai
Vulnerability and resilience of urban waters, under the shifting paradigm of climate change and urbanization, needs to be evaluated from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives. We evaluated the vulnerability of urban waters of Guwahati, the largest city in Northeastern India, and Colombo, the coastal National Capital Territory of Sri Lanka, by analyzing the concurrence of Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs), enteric virus, antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB), metal, faecal contamination and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), as well as long-term changes in precipitation and temperature. Escherichia coli (E. coli) ranged from 10-27 cfu ml-1 in the Kelani river, and from below detection limit to 49 cfu ml-1 in the Brahmaputra. E. coli strains isolated from the water were evaluated for resistance to the antibiotics norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, kanamycin monosulphate, tetracycline and sulfamethoxazole. In both countries, most of the isolates were resistant to multiple drugs and the resistance was greater for older generation antibiotics. The Brahmaputra River showed greater resistance to all of the antibiotics than the Kelani and Gin rivers. Antibiotic resistance genes gyrA, tetW, sul1 and ampC were detected in the Kelani River, while aac-(6’)-1b-cr, gyrA, tetW, sul1, ampC and blaTEM were detected in the Brahmaputra River. Antibiotic resistance appears to be not correlated with the prevalence of PPCPs and E. coli, but with anthropogenic pollution and lifestyle. CSIRO and MIROC models predict more than a 1.2 °C increase in average yearly temperature, whereas average yearly precipitation is likely to remain the same, with some abnormalities in high and low extremes. A resilient framework is needed that ensures participation of every stakeholder by defining specific roles in the implementation process. Climate change, Emerging contaminant, Resilience, Urban waters, Vulnerability
在气候变化和城市化范式转变的背景下,城市水域的脆弱性和复原力需要从定量和定性两个角度进行评估。通过分析药品和个人护理产品(PPCPs)、肠道病毒、抗生素耐药细菌(ARB)、金属、粪便污染和抗生素耐药基因(ARGs)的并发性,以及降水和温度的长期变化,对印度东北部最大城市古瓦哈提和斯里兰卡沿海国家首都特区科伦坡城市水域的脆弱性进行了评估。克拉尼河的大肠杆菌含量为10-27 cfu ml-1,雅鲁藏布江的大肠杆菌含量为49 cfu ml-1。对水中分离的大肠杆菌对诺氟沙星、环丙沙星、左氧氟沙星、单硫酸卡那霉素、四环素和磺胺甲恶唑的耐药性进行了评价。在这两个国家,大多数分离株对多种药物具有耐药性,对老一代抗生素的耐药性更大。雅鲁藏布江对所有抗生素的耐药性都比克拉尼河和金河强。在克拉尼河中检测到抗生素耐药基因gyrA、tetW、sul1和ampC,在雅鲁藏布江中检测到aac-(6′)-1b-cr、gyrA、tetW、sul1、ampC和blaTEM。抗生素耐药性似乎与PPCPs和大肠杆菌的流行无关,但与人为污染和生活方式有关。CSIRO和MIROC模型预测,年平均气温将增加1.2°C以上,而年平均降水量可能保持不变,只有极端高值和极端低值出现一些异常。需要一个有弹性的框架,通过定义实施过程中的具体角色来确保每个利益攸关方的参与。气候变化,新兴污染物,复原力,城市水域,脆弱性
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引用次数: 47
Developing an economic, environmental and agronomic case for the increased use of organic amendments in South Asia 为在南亚增加使用有机改良剂制定经济、环境和农艺案例
Pub Date : 2019-10-29 DOI: 10.30852/sb.2019.780
D. Rowlings, A. Liyanage, J. Kholová, Shanthi Jagadabhi, S. Ranwala, A. Whitbread
Aggressive fertilizer subsidies throughout South Asia have led to a rapid increase in the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers such as urea at the farm level. While this has been successful in increasing yields, significant yield gaps remain between potential and actual farm yields, while unbalanced or over application of fertilizers potentially damages soil and environmental health. This project examined organic amendment (OA) application in India and Sri Lanka on productivity, soil properties and greenhouse gas emissions. In India, poultry, farm-yard manure and vermi-compost were applied to a paddy rice crop, and the potential benefits followed through to a post-rice chickpea crop. In Sri Lanka, we tested the optimal combination of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer rates when using municipal-waste compost in a multi-year maize-soybean rotation. Results at both trial sites saw an increase in crop yields under OA application; in particular chickpea yields from farm-yard manure and after repeated application of municipal-waste compost. However, all OA treatments increased emissions of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane due to additional nitrogen or carbon availability. Furthermore, the low nutrient content and relatively high cost of the OA’s, particularly the composts, made them uneconomical as nutrient sources compared to conventional fertilizers.
整个南亚积极的肥料补贴导致在农场一级使用尿素等合成氮肥的迅速增加。虽然这在提高产量方面取得了成功,但潜在和实际农业产量之间仍然存在巨大的产量差距,而不平衡或过度施用肥料可能会损害土壤和环境健康。该项目审查了有机改良剂(OA)在印度和斯里兰卡对生产力、土壤性质和温室气体排放的应用情况。在印度,家禽、农场院子里的粪便和蚯蚓堆肥被施用于水稻作物,这些潜在的好处随后被施用于水稻后的鹰嘴豆作物。在斯里兰卡,我们测试了在多年玉米-大豆轮作中使用城市垃圾堆肥时合成氮肥用量的最佳组合。两个试验点的结果都显示施用OA后作物产量增加;特别是鹰嘴豆的产量从农场院子的粪便和城市垃圾堆肥反复应用后。然而,由于额外的氮或碳可用性,所有OA处理都增加了温室气体一氧化二氮和甲烷的排放。此外,有机肥,特别是堆肥的营养成分含量低,成本相对较高,与传统肥料相比,作为营养来源不经济。
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引用次数: 1
Addressing non-economic loss and damage associated with climatic events: Cases of Japan and Bangladesh 应对与气候事件相关的非经济损失和损害:日本和孟加拉国的案例
Pub Date : 2019-08-21 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.740
Yohei Chiba, S. Prabhakar, Md. Atikul Islam
Non-economic loss and damage (NELD) could constitute a major proportion of the total loss and damage caused by any climate-related disasters. Despite this, most NELD has not been well measured and reported in most post-disaster reports and databases and has often not been given the attention it deserves in most disaster risk assessments and risk reduction interventions. Issues include a lack of proper recognition among the stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation of the value that society attaches to NELD, and a lack of simple methods to identify, prioritize and measure NELD. Keeping these barriers in view, this research aimed to develop an assessment framework to identify and prioritize NELD in key vulnerable sectors and make policy recommendations for addressing NELD. In this paper, results from case studies conducted in Japan and Bangladesh, two of the five project countries, are presented for a better understanding on this subject. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to identify and prioritize key NELD caused by climate-related disasters and to identify important risk reduction practices that could address NELD. The findings show that mental health disorders can be one common and important NELD in both Bangladesh and Japan despite their contrasting developmental situations. Inaccessible sanitation and waterborne diseases were Bangladesh-specific NELD, while poor risk governance and risk communication between local governments and communities were Japan-specific NELD. Climate change adaptation, Climaterelated disasters, Community, Disaster risk reduction, Loss and damage, Mental health, Non-economic loss and damage
非经济损失和损害(NELD)可能在任何与气候有关的灾害造成的总损失和损害中占很大比例。尽管如此,大多数灾害后报告和数据库都没有很好地衡量和报告大多数自然灾害风险,而且在大多数灾害风险评估和减少风险干预措施中往往没有得到应有的重视。问题包括,从事减少灾害风险和适应气候变化的利益攸关方对社会赋予的低密度发展的价值缺乏适当认识,以及缺乏确定、优先考虑和衡量低密度发展的简单方法。考虑到这些障碍,本研究旨在制定一个评估框架,以确定关键脆弱部门的NELD并确定其优先顺序,并为解决NELD提出政策建议。本文介绍了在五个项目国家中的两个——日本和孟加拉国进行的案例研究的结果,以便更好地了解这一问题。利用层次分析法(AHP)确定气候相关灾害造成的主要非自然灾害风险并确定优先级,并确定可解决非自然灾害风险的重要减少风险做法。研究结果表明,尽管孟加拉国和日本的发展状况截然不同,但精神健康障碍可能是两国共同和重要的非传染性疾病。缺乏卫生设施和水传播疾病是孟加拉国特有的非自然灾害,而风险治理不善和地方政府与社区之间的风险沟通是日本特有的非自然灾害。适应气候变化、与气候有关的灾害、社区、减少灾害风险、损失和损害、心理健康、非经济损失和损害
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引用次数: 6
Appraising slow onset hazards for loss and damage: Case studies in Southeast Asia 评估损失和损害的缓慢发生的危险:东南亚的案例研究
Pub Date : 2019-07-23 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.720
J. Pereira, J. Pulhin, Nyda Chhinh, T. Trong, Siti Khadijah Satari
Slow onset processes were investigated in five pilot areas in Southeast Asia, i.e., Kampong Speu Province (Cambodia), Selangor State (Malaysia), Thatdama Kyun Village (Myanmar), Kanan Watershed (Philippines), and Quang Ngai Province (Vietnam). Pilot areas with low-lying coasts are exposed to floods, saline intrusion and sea-level rise while some are also affected by storms and typhoons. Floodplains are exposed to floods and river bank erosion while highlands are affected by flash floods, mudslides, landslides and forest degradation. Dry conditions and high temperatures are not confined to a specific geomorphological setting. The assessment of L+D is a challenge as many impacts are not directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, where science has clearly linked global warming and sea-level rise to anthropogenic causes, and human influence in a particular area is minimal, L+D assessments are relevant to policy platforms such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The land use planning system is a potential entry point for integrating DRR, CCA and L+D. Climate change adaptation, Climate hazards, Disaster risk reduction, Loss and damage, Slow onset hazards, Southeast Asia
在东南亚的五个试点地区,即柬埔寨的甘邦士卑省、马来西亚的雪兰莪州、缅甸的Thatdama Kyun村、菲律宾的Kanan流域和越南的广西省,研究了慢发过程。沿海低洼的试验区面临洪水、盐水入侵和海平面上升的威胁,有些试验区还受到风暴和台风的影响。洪泛区面临洪水和河岸侵蚀,而高地则受到山洪暴发、泥石流、山体滑坡和森林退化的影响。干燥条件和高温并不局限于特定的地貌环境。由于许多影响不能直接归因于人为气候变化,因此对L+D的评估是一项挑战。然而,在科学已明确将全球变暖和海平面上升与人为原因联系起来,而人类对某一特定领域的影响微乎其微的情况下,L+D评估与《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)等政策平台相关。土地利用规划系统是整合DRR、CCA和L+D的潜在切入点。气候变化适应,气候灾害,减少灾害风险,损失和损害,慢发灾害,东南亚
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引用次数: 5
Simulating spatiotemporal changes in land-use functions in Guyuan, China, using an agent-based model dependent on multi-level stakeholder participation 基于多级利益相关者参与的agent模型模拟固原地区土地利用功能时空变化
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.705
Zhichao Xue, L. Zhen
Seeking a more integrative understanding of the coupled human-environment system to tackle critical issues is currently a key concern for policymakers and the scientific community, especially in developing countries. This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate spatiotemporal changes of land use functions (LUFs) in the environmentally fragile region of Guyuan in western China to better understand local issues. We employed both the Framework of Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) and a questionnaire survey to combine human factors with environmental data. We concluded that: (1) Our ABM well represented spatiotemporal LUF changes in Guyuan; and (2) Land abandonment is a critical problem in Guyuan. Thus, the promotion of land cultivation and the improvement of cultivated land-use efficiency is urgently needed. Our model has great potential for land-use policy scenario simulations and could benefit policymakers in recognizing land-use issues and recommending land management policies.
寻求对耦合的人-环境系统的更综合的理解以解决关键问题,是决策者和科学界,特别是发展中国家的决策者和科学界目前关注的一个关键问题。为了更好地理解环境脆弱区固原土地利用功能的时空变化,建立了基于agent的模型(ABM)。我们采用参与式影响评估框架(foia)和问卷调查相结合的方法,将人为因素与环境数据相结合。结果表明:(1)ABM较好地反映了固原地区LUF的时空变化;(2)固原地区土地撂荒问题严重。因此,迫切需要促进土地开垦,提高耕地利用效率。我们的模型在土地使用政策情景模拟中具有很大的潜力,可以使决策者在认识土地使用问题和建议土地管理政策方面受益。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change adaptation through optimal stormwater capture measures 通过最佳雨水捕获措施适应气候变化
Pub Date : 2019-06-21 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.590
B. Mishra, Abeer Mansoor, C. Saraswat, Arjun Gautam
Urban water management has become more challenging and expensive in the global change context. The major shortcomings of existing research on water management systems are the neglect of uncertainty in climate change, inadequate knowledge of infrastructural response sensitivity, the lack of holistic water management framework and limited consideration of local aspects in adaptation strategies formulation. The main goals of this research are to (1) analyse climate change impact on extreme precipitation patterns, and (2) conduct iterative stormwater simulation for alternative on-site stormwater capture measures for climate change adaptation and sustainable urban development. Impacts of climate change were investigated by considering precipitation projections of multiple GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Yato Watershed, Tokyo. Precipitation IDF curves of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods for present and future climates revealed that, for all return periods and durations, the precipitation intensities are significantly greater for the future climate than the present climate. The HEC-HMS tool enabled simulation of flood hydrographs for current and future climate conditions. The simulated results indicated that there would be an increase of 11–20% in peak discharge at the Yato Watershed outlet at the end of this century. It was observed that Kinuta Park is in a strategic location which can be used to construct a storage facility of 180,163.14 m3 for reducing flood events. The study proposes maintaining the stability of the water cycle of the urban catchment as an alternative for sustainable water management. Climate change, GCM Rainfall IDF, Runoff, Stormwater, Yato Watershed
在全球变化的背景下,城市水管理变得更具挑战性和昂贵。现有水资源管理系统研究的主要缺陷是忽视了气候变化的不确定性、对基础设施响应敏感性的认识不足、缺乏整体水资源管理框架以及在制定适应战略时对地方因素的考虑有限。本研究的主要目标是:(1)分析气候变化对极端降水模式的影响;(2)进行迭代雨水模拟,为适应气候变化和城市可持续发展提供备选的现场雨水捕获措施。利用多种全球气候模式(GCMs)对东京Yato流域的降水预估,探讨了气候变化的影响。2、5、10、25、50和100年回归期的降水IDF曲线显示,在所有回归期和持续时间内,未来气候的降水强度都显著大于当前气候。HEC-HMS工具能够模拟当前和未来气候条件下的洪水曲线。模拟结果表明,本世纪末八渡流域出水口洪峰流量将增加11% ~ 20%。据观察,Kinuta公园位于战略位置,可用于建造一个180 163.14立方米的储存设施,以减少洪水事件。该研究建议维持城市集水区水循环的稳定性,作为可持续水管理的替代方案。气候变化,GCM降雨IDF,径流,雨水,Yato流域
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引用次数: 4
An integrated assessment of climate-affected long-term water availability and its impacts on energy security in the Ganges sub-basins 恒河子流域受气候影响的长期水资源供应及其对能源安全影响的综合评估
Pub Date : 2019-06-06 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.612
Xin Zhou, B. Mitra, D. Sharma, G. Islam, R. Malla, D. Herran
The Ganges basin provides essential water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power generation. Global climate change will affect the water availability in the basin and inevitably intensify the competition for water among major users, particularly from thermal power generation. Knowledge on the spatial distribution of water supply-demand gaps and the water stress for meeting the cooling water requirements is crucial for effective energy planning and water resource management. This article presents the outcomes from the India case study based on an integrated assessment of the water-energy nexus in the Ganges sub-basins focusing on water stress assessment for thermal power plants up to 2050 under climate change conditions. The results from the hydrological modelling show that the overall water availability in the four studied sub-basins, namely Chambal, Damodar, Gandak and Yamuna, will increase by 13%, 33%, 21% and 28%, respectively, in 2050 compared with the levels in 2010 under the greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5. However, water availability will not be evenly distributed throughout the year and in some sub-basins water will be less available in the dry seasons. For example, Yamuna will have 25% less water in the dry season in the 2050s. Steady growth of water demand will cause serious water deficit in 30 out of 40 districts in Yamuna and 18 out of 33 districts in Gandak in 2050 under RCP 4.5. Consequently, 40% of the existing and planned thermal power plants in Damodar and almost all in Gandak and Yamuna will face high water risks in the future, endangering the energy security in India. Energy development planning and water resource management therefore need to take into account the water risks posed to future thermal power generation and consider the relocation of the planned installations from water-stressed areas (particularly Gandak) to alternative locations with water surplus (such as Chambal). It is also important to adopt less water-intensive power generation technologies and cooling systems for the planned and new installations. Ganges sub-basins, Integrated assessment, Water stress for thermal power generation, Water supply-demand gaps, Water-energy nexus
恒河流域为饮用、灌溉、工业和发电提供了必需的水。全球气候变化将影响流域的水资源供应,并不可避免地加剧主要用户之间的水资源竞争,特别是来自火力发电的竞争。了解水资源供需缺口的空间分布和满足冷却水需求的水资源压力对于有效的能源规划和水资源管理至关重要。本文介绍了印度案例研究的结果,该研究基于对恒河子流域水能关系的综合评估,重点是在气候变化条件下到2050年火电厂的水资源压力评估。水文模拟结果表明,在温室气体代表性浓度路径(RCP)情景下,2050年Chambal、Damodar、Gandak和Yamuna四个研究子流域的总体可用水量将分别比2010年增加13%、33%、21%和28%。然而,全年的可用水量不会均匀分布,在一些子流域,旱季的可用水量会减少。例如,到本世纪50年代,亚穆纳旱季的水量将减少25%。根据RCP 4.5,到2050年,水需求的稳定增长将导致亚穆纳40个地区中的30个地区和甘达克33个地区中的18个地区严重缺水。因此,Damodar地区40%的现有和计划中的火力发电厂以及Gandak和Yamuna地区几乎所有的火力发电厂未来都将面临高水风险,危及印度的能源安全。因此,能源发展规划和水资源管理需要考虑到对未来火力发电构成的水风险,并考虑将计划中的设施从缺水地区(特别是甘达克)搬迁到水资源过剩的其他地区(如昌巴尔)。同样重要的是,为计划中的和新的装置采用用水量较少的发电技术和冷却系统。恒河子流域,综合评价,火力发电用水压力,水供需缺口,水能联系
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引用次数: 3
Exploring the effects of urban heat island: A case study of two cities in Thailand and Indonesia 探讨城市热岛效应:以泰国和印度尼西亚两个城市为例
Pub Date : 2019-06-03 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.539
S. Arifwidodo, Orana Chandrasiri, R. Abdulharis, T. Kubota
This study is part of a regional research project aimed at understanding the effects of Urban Heat Island (UHI) on urban residents. Using two case studies in Bangkok, Thailand and Bandung, Indonesia, the study focuses on the effects of UHI on household energy consumption and health and well-being. A survey questionnaire of 400 respondents from each city was employed. Household energy consumption is measured using a proxy variable of average monthly electricity consumption. UHI intensity is measured using a cooling degree days (CDD) variable constructed from the temperature difference between urban and suburban weather stations. The perceived health effect is measured by heat stress, physical health impacts, mental health impacts and health and well-being outcomes. The data are then analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics. The result indicates that the presence of UHI in Bangkok plays a significant role in household energy consumption. UHI is found to have a positive association with the ownership of air conditioning equipment in Bangkok and Bandung and is found to increase the monthly electricity bill. In terms of health effects, it is found that UHI affects health directly through heat stress and indirectly through lowering the health and well-being outcomes. Results from the two case studies indicate that UHI has affected the daily lives of urban residents in terms of increasing household energy consumption for cooling and disruption of activities such as working, sleeping, and general health and well-being. Bandung, Bangkok, Health and well-being, Household energy consumption, Sustainable urban development, Urban heat island
本研究是旨在了解城市热岛(UHI)对城市居民影响的区域研究项目的一部分。该研究利用在泰国曼谷和印度尼西亚万隆进行的两个案例研究,重点关注全民保健对家庭能源消费和健康与福祉的影响。采用问卷调查的方式,从每个城市抽取400名受访者。家庭能源消耗是用每月平均用电量的代理变量来衡量的。利用城市和郊区气象站之间的温差构建的冷却度日(CDD)变量来测量热岛强度。感知到的健康影响是通过热应激、身体健康影响、心理健康影响以及健康和福祉结果来衡量的。然后通过描述性和推断性统计对数据进行分析。结果表明,曼谷城市热岛的存在对家庭能源消费起着重要作用。研究发现,在曼谷和万隆,热岛保健与拥有空调设备有积极联系,并增加了每月电费。就健康影响而言,发现全民医保通过热应激直接影响健康,并通过降低健康和福祉结果间接影响健康。这两个案例研究的结果表明,城市热岛影响了城市居民的日常生活,增加了家庭用于制冷的能源消耗,扰乱了工作、睡眠和一般健康和福祉等活动。万隆,曼谷,健康与福祉,家庭能源消耗,城市可持续发展,城市热岛
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引用次数: 10
Ecosystem-based approach for planning research and capacity development for integrated coastal zone management in Southeast Asia 基于生态系统的东南亚沿海地区综合管理规划、研究和能力发展方法
Pub Date : 2019-02-27 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2019.537
N. Nagabhatla, Ngo Tho Hung, Luong Thi Tuyen, V. Cam, J. Dhanraj, Nguyen Thi Thien, F. Swierczek
Coastal ecosystems contribute significantly to socio-economic development in the Southeast Asia Region. The emerging question is how to achieve sustainable development through innovative thinking, smart planning and better insights derived from an ecosystem-based approach (EbA). Based on experience gained while implementing the Sustainable Management and Governance of Coastal Ecosystems (ENGAGE) project funded by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), we contribute to addressing this question by proposing an emerging EbA as a complementary concept for implementing Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A strong emphasis on strengthening the capacity of development actors and local communities remains pertinent in formulating this eco-centric policy for resource governance. This synthesis is described in three sections presenting an overview of EbA and ICZM in selected countries in the region. The first section reflects the review of coastal management frameworks and institutions, with a focus on policy strengths and gaps in the integration of EbA, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. The second section explains different procedures adopted or proposed in the region for sustainable development of coastal ecosystems. The third section demonstrates how regional-scale initiatives like ENGAGE can facilitate the exchange of data, information, and knowledge, and stimulate cooperation for realizing the 2030 Agenda for Transformation, and the coastal zone-related SDGs and targets. Capacity building, Coastal ecosystem, Integrated management, Southeast Asia
沿海生态系统对东南亚区域的社会经济发展作出了重大贡献。新出现的问题是如何通过创新思维、明智规划和从基于生态系统的方法(EbA)中获得更好的见解来实现可持续发展。基于在实施由亚太全球变化研究网络(APN)资助的沿海生态系统可持续管理和治理(ENGAGE)项目中获得的经验,我们通过提出新兴的EbA作为实施综合沿海区管理(ICZM)的补充概念,为解决这一问题做出了贡献。在制定以生态为中心的资源管理政策时,高度强调加强发展行动者和地方社区的能力仍然是相关的。这一综合分为三个部分,介绍了该地区选定国家的EbA和ICZM概况。第一部分反映了对沿海管理框架和机构的审查,重点是在整合EbA方面的政策优势和差距,特别是在适应气候变化的背景下。第二部分解释了该地区为沿海生态系统的可持续发展采取或提议的不同程序。第三部分展示了像ENGAGE这样的区域规模倡议如何促进数据、信息和知识的交流,并促进合作,以实现《2030年转型议程》以及与沿海地区相关的可持续发展目标和具体目标。能力建设,沿海生态系统,综合管理,东南亚
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引用次数: 6
Future changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C 在全球变暖2°C的情况下,东南亚年极端降水的未来变化
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.30852/SB.2018.436
F. Tangang, Supari Supari, J. Chung, F. Cruz, E. Salimun, Sheau Tieh Ngai, L. Juneng, J. Santisirisomboon, Jaruthat Santisirisomboon, T. Ngo‐Duc, T. Phan‐Van, G. Narisma, P. Singhruck, D. Gunawan, E. Aldrian, A. Sopaheluwakan, G. Nikulin, Hongwei Yang, A. Remedio, D. Sein, David Hein-Griggs
THIS ARTICLE PROVIDES detailed information on projected changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Four indices of extreme precipitation are considered: annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of rainfall exceeding 50 mm/day (R50mm), and intensity of extreme precipitation (RX1day). The ensemble mean of 10 simulations showed reasonable performance in simulating observed characteristics of extreme precipitation during the historical period of 1986–2005. The year 2041 was taken as the year when global mean temperature reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels under unmitigated climate change scenario based on Karmalkar and Bradley (2017). Results indicate that the most prominent changes during the period of 2031–2051 were largely significant. Robust increases in CDD imply impending drier conditions over Indonesia, while increases in RX1day suggest more intense rainfall events over most of Indochina under 2°C global warming scenario. Furthermore, northern Myanmar is projected to experience increases in CDD, R50mm and RX1day, suggesting that the area may face more serious repercussions than other areas in Southeast Asia.
本文基于东南亚区域气候降尺度/协调东南亚区域气候降尺度试验(SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA)的多模式模拟,详细介绍了全球变暖2°C下东南亚地区年极端降水的变化。考虑了极端降水的4个指标:年总降水量(PRCPTOT)、连续干旱日数(CDD)、超过50mm /d的降水频率(R50mm)和极端降水强度(RX1day)。10次模拟的集合平均值对1986—2005年极端降水的观测特征具有较好的模拟效果。Karmalkar and Bradley(2017)将2041年作为气候变化不减缓情景下全球平均气温比工业化前水平高出2°C的年份。结果表明,2031-2051年期间的变化最为显著。此外,预计缅甸北部的CDD、r50毫米和r71天将增加,这表明该地区可能面临比东南亚其他地区更严重的影响。
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引用次数: 63
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APN Science Bulletin
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