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Retesting the Dual Sector Model in India and Brazil 印度和巴西双部门模式的再检验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.2.2.6
Jiade Xiao
India and Brazil are developing countries and emerging markets, enjoying economic development in the recent decades. The development experience of both countries may provide persuasive evidences in supporting or disapproving the economic theories. Arthur Lewis’ structural-change theory focuses on the transition of economic structure with the character from depending heavily on agricultural sector to the character with more contribution from industrial sector occurring in the developing countries. His model of dual sector, as an important part of the structural-change theory, argues that the labor moving from agricultural sector to industrial sector associated with the migration from rural area to urban area contributes to the economic development as well as the alleviation of overpopulation in agricultural sector and the stagnation of marginal product resulted from the population growth and technology advancement in the developing countries. This paper explores the adaptability of the assumptions and the arguments of the Arthur Lewis’ Model in India and Brazil in the structural change between the agricultural and industry sectors. There is quite some evidence supports the argument of dual sector model, though the model is not fully explanatory on the economic development of the two developing countries.
印度和巴西都是发展中国家和新兴市场国家,近几十年来经济发展迅速。两国的发展经验可以为支持或反对这些经济理论提供有说服力的证据。阿瑟·刘易斯的结构变迁理论关注的是发展中国家经济结构从严重依赖农业部门向工业部门贡献更大特征的转变。他的双部门模型是结构变化理论的重要组成部分,认为劳动力从农业部门转移到工业部门,伴随着农村向城市的迁移,有助于经济的发展,也有助于缓解发展中国家农业部门的人口过剩和人口增长和技术进步导致的边际产品停滞。本文探讨了在印度和巴西的农业和工业部门的结构变化中,阿瑟·刘易斯模型的假设和论点的适应性。尽管双部门模型并不能完全解释两个发展中国家的经济发展,但已有相当多的证据支持双部门模型的观点。
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引用次数: 1
Dynamics of Tobin’s Q and US Stock Performance 托宾Q与美国股市表现的动态关系
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.2.2.3
M. Rahman, Muhammad Mustafa
To study the dynamic effects of changes in Tobin’s Q on stock prices of selected 249 US public companies of different industry categories. Panel unit roots tests and cointegration tests are implemented. Next, DOLS and GMM models are estimated. Annual data for the 2004-2012 period are used for the above selected US companies. Panel unit root tests provide somewhat mixed evidence of non-stationarity of both variables. There is clear evidence of cointegration between the above variables. The negative coefficient of the error-correction term shows convergence toward long-run equilibrium, though at slow pace. The estimates also reveal shortrun net positive interactive feedback effects between the variables. Both DOLS and GMM estimates display similar picture of overvaluation of stocks in terms of upward movement in Tobin’s Q beyond 0-to-1 range. For most parts of the sample period, the US stock market was in declining mode due to heightening of economic uncertainties during the Great Recession and several years beyond. Tobin’s Q should be improved to boost stock prices. This is more of a long-run phenomenon. In the short run, both reinforce each other. The topic is unique and the existing literature on this topic is scant. Relatively new econometric techniques have been applied for estimation using panel data. The results are quite insightful, in our view.
选取249家不同行业类别的美国上市公司,研究托宾Q值变化对股价的动态影响。采用面板单位根检验和协整检验。其次,对DOLS和GMM模型进行估计。上述选定的美国公司使用2004-2012年期间的年度数据。面板单位根检验提供了两个变量的非平稳性的混合证据。以上变量之间存在明显的协整关系。误差修正项的负系数向长期均衡收敛,但速度缓慢。估算结果还揭示了变量之间的短期净正交互反馈效应。DOLS和GMM估计都显示了类似的股票估值过高的情况,即托宾Q的向上运动超过0比1的范围。在样本期的大部分时间里,由于大衰退期间及之后几年经济不确定性的加剧,美国股市处于下跌模式。应该改进托宾Q来提振股价。这更像是一种长期现象。从短期来看,两者是相辅相成的。这是一个独特的话题,现有的文献很少。相对较新的计量经济学技术已应用于使用面板数据进行估计。在我们看来,研究结果很有见地。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting Multiple Bubbles and Exuberance in Financial Data: An Extensive Empirical Examination over Four Major Foreign Indexes 发现金融数据中的多重泡沫与繁荣:对国外四大指数的广泛实证检验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.2.2.5
Swarna D. Dutt, D. Ghosh
History is replete with incidents of financial crisis, which ex-post become a wakeup call for policy makers and the people. But there were no tests which could identify and date financial bubbles in real time, till now. Phillips, Shi and Yu [2015] provides the first and only model to recursively examine for multiple bubbles. Their “flexible window” methodology provides consistent results and has successfully identified the well-known historical episodes of exuberance and collapse. This accuracy provides very useful “warning alerts” to central bankers, fiscal regulators and policy makers to pre-emptively act and possibly eliminate an impending implosion. We extensively examine for the presence and recurrence of multiple bubbles, over four major financial indexes. We find evidence of bubbles and explosive sub-periods over the longterm data for all of the indices, including deciphering the technology bubbles of the 1990s and early 2000s, and the financial crises of 2008.
历史上充满了金融危机事件,这些事件事后为决策者和人民敲响了警钟。但到目前为止,还没有能够实时识别和确定金融泡沫日期的测试。Phillips、Shi和Yu[2015]提供了第一个也是唯一一个递归检测多个气泡的模型。他们的“灵活窗口”方法提供了一致的结果,并成功地识别了众所周知的繁荣和崩溃的历史事件。这种准确性为央行行长、财政监管机构和政策制定者提供了非常有用的“警告警报”,以便他们采取先发制人的行动,并可能消除即将发生的内爆。我们在四个主要的金融指标上广泛地检查了多个泡沫的存在和复发。我们在所有指数的长期数据中发现了泡沫和爆炸性子期的证据,包括解读20世纪90年代和21世纪初的科技泡沫,以及2008年的金融危机。
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引用次数: 0
Pathways of Reform in Education: Evidence from India 教育改革之路:来自印度的证据
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2022.6.1.2
Poornima Tapas, Deepa Pillai, Rita R Dangre, Kishore G. Kulkarni
Presenters of two papers have decided to only publish their ppts instead of whole papers. Two sets of ppts presented follow.
两篇论文的发表者决定只发表他们的部分而不是整篇论文。下面是两组ppt。
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引用次数: 0
Improve Yield And Quality Of Senile Orchard With Rejuvenation And Nutrient Management 利用返老还林和养分管理提高老果园产量和品质
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2020.4.2.9
K. S. Jotava
Day by day newer technologies are under implementation and become popular among the orchardists. Decades ago orchard establishment was made by varying spacing and different source of planting materials of either sexual or asexual methods. Due to the difference in source of planting material and short of application of nutrient of orchards leads to the senile or less productive. Poor management practices also brings orchards to the uneconomical zone. Overcrowding and encroachment of trees resulted in competition for nutrient absorption congestion, poor light penetration and act as good shelter house for insect- pests and disease attacks are obvious problems with older orchards, if trees are not rejuvenated. Timely rejuvenation is wise decision by orchardists which is necessary for the grower to make orchard productive. This must be followed by the balanced application of nutrients of either source. An application of organic, inorganic source of nutrients and bio fertilizers gave optimum growth, more flowering and yield with improved quality parameters like size, average weight of fruit, TSS and ascorbic acid etc. Integrated and balanced nutrient management leads to increasing the efficiency of all nutrients applied thus, decreasing the amounts of fertilizers used and finally obtaining a high yield with quality.
越来越多的新技术正在实施,并受到园艺师的欢迎。几十年前,果园的建立是通过不同的间距和不同的种植材料来源(有性或无性方法)来实现的。由于种植原料来源的差异和养分的施用不足,导致果园衰老或产量下降。管理不善也把果园带到经济不发达的地区。树木的过度拥挤和侵占导致养分吸收的竞争拥挤,光线穿透能力差,并成为害虫和疾病袭击的良好庇护所,如果树木不恢复活力,这些都是老果园的明显问题。适时的返老还童是果农明智的决定,这对果园的生产是必要的。在此之后,必须均衡地应用两种来源的营养物质。施用有机、无机营养源和生物肥料,使其生长最佳,开花更多,产量更高,品质参数如大小、果实平均重量、TSS和抗坏血酸等得到改善。综合均衡的养分管理可以提高所有养分的利用效率,从而减少肥料的使用量,最终获得高质量的高产。
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引用次数: 0
Covid-19 And Its Impact On Indian Economy With Respect To Crude Oil Covid-19及其对原油经济的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2020.4.2.41
V. Sunitha, Kumar L.S. Arun
India is one of the largest economy in the world, with population around 1.4 Billion, and average GDP (Gross Domestic product) from 2015- 2019 is around 7 percent, India is the third largest oil importer in the world, with 9.7 percent of the world oil imports, after China and USA, India imports around 80 percent of its oil needs and aims to bring down to 67 percent by 2022, by replacing it by local exploration, renewable energy and indigenous ethanol fuel, but in India there is lack of demand for crude oil and oil products due to Covid-19 epidemic, which made Indian government to imply restrictions, to lockdown of various firms, industries, public and private sector institutions, as health emergency, according to the report of IEA ( International Energy Agency) India’s 40 days lockdown has led to decrease in 30 percent fall in countries demand for energy. Covid-19 is concern for Indian oil producers, as it is the biggest shock since the Second World War. The global economy is expected to enter recessionary Zone in 2020, as countries have shut down there normal business activities, to fight the pandemic led to imbalances in demand and supply of oil prices in the Indian market, Indian oil companies are waiting for the tax reductions and packages by the government, in the short term imbalance in oil demand and supply situation. The purpose of the research paper is that, Indian government has a great task to fight against covid-19 as a health emergency and oil prices fluctuations in the year 2020.
印度是世界上最大的经济体之一,人口约14亿,和平均GDP(国内生产总值)从2015 - 2019年大约是7%,印度是世界上第三大石油进口国,与世界上9.7%的石油进口,在中国和美国,印度约80%的进口石油需求和目标,到2022年降低到67%,取而代之的是当地探索,可再生能源和土著乙醇燃料,根据国际能源署(IEA)的报告,由于新冠肺炎疫情,印度对原油和石油产品的需求不足,这使得印度政府暗示限制,将各种公司、行业、公共和私营部门机构作为紧急卫生事件封锁,印度40天的封锁导致该国对能源的需求下降了30%。新冠肺炎疫情令印度石油生产商感到担忧,因为这是自第二次世界大战以来最大的冲击。全球经济预计将在2020年进入衰退区,各国纷纷关闭正常商业活动,抗击疫情导致印度市场油价供需失衡,印度石油公司正在等待政府减税和一揽子计划,短期内石油供需失衡的局面。研究论文的目的是,印度政府在2020年有一项艰巨的任务,即抗击covid-19作为卫生紧急情况和油价波动。
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引用次数: 0
Climatic Challenges and Environmental Pollution in India 印度的气候挑战和环境污染
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.1.3.4
T. Sarathy
Global climate change is a change in the long-term weather patterns that characterize the regions of the world. The term “weather” refers to the short-term (daily) changes in temperature, wind, and/or precipitation of a region. In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture availability etc. Climate change is likely to directly impact food production across the globe. Increase in the mean seasonal temperature can reduce the duration of many crops and hence reduce the yield. In areas where temperatures are already close to the physiological maxima for crops, warming will impact yields more immediately. Drivers of climate change through alterations in atmospheric composition can also influence food production directly by its impact on plant physiology. The consequences of agriculture’s contribution to climate change, and of climate change’s negative impact on agriculture, are severe which is projected to have a great impact on food production and may threaten the food security and hence, require special agricultural measures to combat with. Although India has a rich and long history of environmental laws dating back to the 1970s, it still ranks very low on air and water pollution levels compared to the rest of the world resulting in higher rates of infant mortality and lower life expectancy rates. Poor sanitation conditions and sewage problems compound the problem affecting the health of ordinary citizens in India. The reasons for this disconnect between enlightened environmental laws and high levels of pollution could be traced to existing environmental laws, discrepancies in the environmental guidelines for businesses to follow between the central government and at the state levels, and the existence of a large number of SMEs who neither have the resources nor the technical skills to adhere to the existing environmental laws. Using extensive secondary research, this paper suggests a series of steps to help the country achieve safe air and water pollution levels resulting in improved health conditions for its citizens. The cornerstone of the prescription for improvements in the environment is a collaborative arrangement that brings together the various government agencies, the citizens, SMEs, large domestic companies, and NGOs to participate in a collaborative arrangement to educate, streamline effective policies, develop the necessary institutional infrastructure, and provide adequate funding for improving the environment.
全球气候变化是具有世界各地区特征的长期天气模式的变化。“天气”一词指的是一个地区的温度、风和/或降水的短期(每日)变化。从长远来看,气候变化可能会在几个方面影响农业,如作物的产量、生长速度、光合作用和蒸腾速率、水分可用性等方面的数量和质量。气候变化可能会直接影响全球的粮食生产。平均季节温度的升高会缩短许多作物的生长时间,从而降低产量。在温度已经接近农作物生理最高温度的地区,气候变暖将更直接地影响产量。气候变化的驱动因素通过大气成分的改变也可以通过其对植物生理的影响直接影响粮食生产。农业对气候变化的贡献以及气候变化对农业的负面影响的后果是严重的,预计将对粮食生产产生重大影响,并可能威胁到粮食安全,因此需要采取特殊的农业措施来应对。尽管印度的环境法历史悠久,可以追溯到20世纪70年代,但与世界其他国家相比,印度的空气和水污染水平仍然很低,导致婴儿死亡率较高,预期寿命较低。恶劣的卫生条件和污水问题加剧了影响印度普通公民健康的问题。开明的环境法律与高污染之间的脱节,其原因可以追溯到现有的环境法律,中央政府和州一级企业遵循的环境指导方针的差异,以及大量中小企业既没有资源也没有技术技能来遵守现有的环境法律。通过广泛的二次研究,本文提出了一系列步骤,以帮助该国实现安全的空气和水污染水平,从而改善其公民的健康状况。改善环境的基础是一种合作安排,它将不同的政府机构、公民、中小企业、大型国内公司和非政府组织聚集在一起,共同参与一种合作安排,以教育、简化有效的政策、发展必要的制度基础设施,并为改善环境提供充足的资金。
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of Air Pollution and Human Health Effects 空气污染与人体健康影响分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.1.3.14
R. Priya
Hazardous chemicals escape to the environment by a number of natural and/or anthropogenic activities and may cause adverse effects on human health and the environment. Increased combustion of fossil fuels in the last century is responsible for the progressive change in the atmospheric composition. Air pollutants, such as carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone (O3), heavy metals, and respirable particulate matter, differ in their chemical composition, reaction properties, emission, time of disintegration and ability to diffuse in long or short distances. Air pollution has both acute and chronic effects on human health, affecting a number of different systems and organs. It ranges from minor upper respiratory irritation to chronic respiratory and heart disease, lung cancer, acute respiratory infections in children and chronic bronchitis in adults, aggravating pre-existing heart and lung disease, or asthmatic attacks. In addition, short- and long-term exposures have also been linked with premature mortality and reduced life expectancy. This paper discussed about effects of air pollutants on human health.
危险化学品通过一些自然和(或)人为活动逃逸到环境中,并可能对人类健康和环境造成不利影响。上个世纪化石燃料燃烧的增加是造成大气成分逐渐变化的原因。空气污染物,如一氧化碳(CO)、二氧化硫(SO2)、氮氧化物(NOx)、挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)、臭氧(O3)、重金属和可吸入颗粒物,其化学成分、反应性质、排放、分解时间和远距离或短距离扩散能力各不相同。空气污染对人体健康有急性和慢性影响,影响许多不同的系统和器官。它的范围从轻微的上呼吸道刺激到慢性呼吸道和心脏病、肺癌、儿童急性呼吸道感染和成人慢性支气管炎,加重了已有的心肺疾病或哮喘发作。此外,短期和长期接触也与过早死亡和预期寿命缩短有关。本文讨论了大气污染物对人体健康的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Occupational Health Hazards Of Working Women In Un-Organized Sector 无组织部门工作妇女的职业健康危害
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2020.4.2.27
S. Priya
Working women perform dual jobs, that is, on the domestic front as well as economic front. Her additional role as a working women throws many challenges along with her primary challenge of the household. Both these roles make demands on her time and energy. After a full day’s work with the employer, she has to do another shift at her home. For example, waking up early morning, rolling the beds, cleaning the house, preparing breakfast, cooking lunch, washing clothes, and the rushing off to the workplace. Returning in the evening with shopping in hand to cook the dinner for the family, handling children study work, washing utensils, and finally collapsing into the bed only to begin the grind again early next morning. These effects their health in the absence of proper infrastructure for the supply of these needs. When they have to combine triple burden viz., bearing children, taking for of the family, they have to sacrifice nutrition, health care and leisure for themselves. Notwithstanding, the mechanization at home and office put the gender at a great health risk that ultimately affect reproductive role leaving more at the mercy of assisted pregnancy and child birth. This is the serious problem for mankind itself.
职业妇女从事双重工作,即在家庭方面和经济方面。作为一名职业妇女,她的额外角色伴随着家庭的主要挑战带来了许多挑战。这两个角色都需要她的时间和精力。在为雇主工作了一整天之后,她不得不在家里再做一次轮班。例如,早起,铺床,打扫房间,准备早餐,做午餐,洗衣服,然后赶着去上班。晚上回来,手里拿着购物的东西,为家人做饭,照顾孩子,学习功课,洗餐具,最后瘫倒在床上,第二天一大早又开始干活。在缺乏适当的基础设施来满足这些需求的情况下,这些因素影响了他们的健康。当她们必须同时承担三重负担,即生儿育女、照顾家庭时,她们不得不为自己牺牲营养、保健和休闲。尽管如此,家庭和办公室的机械化使性别面临巨大的健康风险,最终影响生殖作用,使更多的人受到辅助怀孕和分娩的摆布。这是人类自身面临的严重问题。
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引用次数: 0
Cash Shortages and Black Money: A Look at India's 2016 Demonetization Effect, One Year Later 现金短缺和黑钱:一年后印度2016年废钞运动的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.56902/irbe.2018.2.1.4
Amitabh S. Dutta, Kishore G. Kulkarni
The decision of demonetization announcement in November 2016, by the Prime Minister of India, Mr. Narendra Modi, was surprising to the general public and controversial to the economic thinkers. While the opponents of such a step have gone through actual calculation of the cost of demonetization in terms of potential GDP loss (2% as predicted by the former Prime Minister and Oxford Economist, Manmohan Singh) some supporters have pointed out the big benefits of this step. In recent days a talk of demonetization has become a “hot potato” that very few want to hold on to. Politically this has become a subject of acute contention and disagreement with some friends turning into foes just for the position they hold on this issue. In this paper we want to be economically eclectic, and attempt to analyze the real economic costs and benefits of this experiment by keeping away from politics. We intend to ask questions such as, why was this done? What were the consequences faced by the general public when this step was taken? Did we achieve the objectives? and What are the economic opportunity costs of doing this in future? Of course, we do not think that anyone can find all the answers, but the investigation itself is considered to be worthwhile.
2016年11月,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)宣布废除纸币,这一决定令公众感到惊讶,也引起了经济思想家的争议。尽管反对这一举措的人已经就潜在的GDP损失(前总理、牛津经济学家曼莫汉·辛格预测的2%)进行了实际计算,但一些支持者指出了这一举措的巨大好处。最近几天,关于废除纸币的讨论已经成为一个“烫手山芋”,很少有人愿意坚持下去。在政治上,这已经成为一个激烈争论和分歧的话题,一些朋友仅仅因为在这个问题上的立场而变成了敌人。在本文中,我们希望在经济上折衷,并试图在远离政治的情况下分析这一实验的实际经济成本和收益。我们打算问这样的问题,为什么这样做?当采取这一步骤时,公众面临的后果是什么?我们达到目标了吗?未来这样做的经济机会成本是多少?当然,我们不认为任何人都能找到所有的答案,但调查本身被认为是值得的。
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引用次数: 0
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International Review of Business and Economics
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