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Big data in monetary policy analysis—a critical assessment 货币政策分析中的大数据——关键评估
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.733
Alexandra Bogner, Jürgen Jerger
Abstract Over the last years the use of big data became increasingly relevant also for macroeconomic topics and specifically the conduct and analysis of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of these applications and the relevant methods. The rationale for doing so is twofold. First, there is no straightforward definition of “big data”. Since macroeconomics and monetary policy analysis has a long tradition in quite sophisticated and data-intensive empirical applications the nature of the innovation big data is indeed bringing to the field is reflected upon. Second, concerning statistical / empirical methods the analysis of big data necessitates the use of different tools relative to traditional empirical macroeconomics which are in some cases a complement to more traditional methods. Hence big data in monetary policy is not just the application of well-established methods to larger data sets.
在过去的几年里,大数据的使用也越来越多地与宏观经济主题,特别是货币政策的实施和分析相关。本文的目的是对这些应用和相关方法进行综述。这样做的理由有两个。首先,“大数据”没有明确的定义。由于宏观经济学和货币政策分析在相当复杂和数据密集型的实证应用方面有着悠久的传统,因此大数据确实给该领域带来了创新的本质。其次,关于统计/实证方法,大数据分析需要使用与传统实证宏观经济学不同的工具,这些工具在某些情况下是对更传统方法的补充。因此,货币政策中的大数据不仅仅是将成熟的方法应用于更大的数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Divest or engage? Effective paths to net zero from the U.S. perspective 剥离还是参与?从美国的角度来看,实现零排放的有效途径
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.1.3
Andrew Buks, Konrad Sobański
Abstract The aim of this article is to critically review and evaluate two ESG-based investment strategies—divestment and engagement for alignment of investment portfolios with climate change mitigation goals of the United Nations. The article compares both approaches in terms of their effectiveness of decarbonization, using the case study method. First, the case on fossil fuels divestment by Harvard Management Company is analysed. The second case study discusses shareholder engagement endeavors by Engine No. 1 hedge fund and its investment in ExxonMobil. The findings indicate that divestment may have non-immediate impact on corporate behavior and carries political and legal retribution risks. Engagement, on the other hand, presents itself as a more plausible option as it takes less time to deploy and, therefore, can produce more immediate and impactful results. Nevertheless, both divestment and engagement can play mutually supportive roles in addressing climate change by the investment industry.
本文的目的是严格审查和评估两种基于esg的投资战略——撤资和参与,以使投资组合与联合国减缓气候变化的目标保持一致。本文采用案例研究的方法,对两种方法的脱碳效果进行了比较。首先,分析了哈佛管理公司撤资化石燃料的案例。第二个案例研究讨论了Engine No. 1对冲基金的股东参与努力及其对埃克森美孚的投资。研究结果表明,撤资可能对企业行为产生非立竿见影的影响,并存在政治和法律报复风险。另一方面,参与是一种更合理的选择,因为它需要更少的时间来部署,因此可以产生更直接和更有影响力的结果。然而,投资行业在应对气候变化方面,撤资和参与都可以发挥相互支持的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The rise of Generative AI and possible effects on the economy 生成式人工智能的兴起及其对经济的可能影响
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.732
T. Orchard, Leszek Tasiemski
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyse the likely implications of Generative AI (GAI) on various aspects of business and the economy. Amid the rapid growth and maturing of Generative AI technologies such as Large Language Models (like ChatGPT by OpenAI) a rapid growth of both immediate and potential applications can be seen. The implications for the economy and industries of this technological shift will be discussed. The foreseeable scenarios for the level and types of adoption that GAI might achieve—from useful analytical tool, invaluable assistant to the white-collar workers of the world to being trusted with a wide array of business and life-critical decision making. Both disruptive and premium service opportunities are foreseen. For instance, general purpose models may provide quality service—such as copywriting—to overserved customers leaving human writers as the premium option. In this context, overserved customers would be those who would be satisfied with a non-human, potentially less creative content. On the other hand highly specialized models—specifically trained in a given domain and with access to proprietary knowledge can possibly provide a premium service over that provided by human experts. It is expected that some jobs will be replaced by new AI applications. However, new workplaces will emerge. Not only the obvious expert-level data scientist roles but also low grade, “model supervisors”—people training the models, assessing the quality of responses given and handling escalations. Lastly new cybercrime risks emerging from the rise of GAI are discussed.
本文的目的是分析生成式人工智能(GAI)对商业和经济各个方面的可能影响。随着大型语言模型(如OpenAI的ChatGPT)等生成式人工智能技术的快速发展和成熟,可以看到即时和潜在应用的快速增长。我们将讨论这种技术转变对经济和工业的影响。GAI可能达到的采用水平和类型的可预见的场景-从有用的分析工具,世界白领的无价助手,到被广泛的商业和生活关键决策所信任。颠覆性和优质服务的机会都是可以预见的。例如,通用模型可以为服务过多的客户提供高质量的服务(如文案),而将人类作家作为高级选项。在这种情况下,过度服务的客户将是那些对非人类的、可能缺乏创造性的内容感到满意的客户。另一方面,高度专业化的模型——在给定领域经过专门训练,并且可以访问专有知识——可能比人类专家提供的服务更优质。预计一些工作将被新的人工智能应用程序所取代。然而,新的工作场所将会出现。不仅有明显的专家级数据科学家角色,还有低级别的“模型监督员”——训练模型、评估给出的响应质量和处理升级的人。最后讨论了GAI的兴起所带来的新的网络犯罪风险。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting realized volatility through financial turbulence and neural networks 预测通过金融动荡和神经网络实现波动
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.737
Hugo Gobato Souto, A. Moradi
Abstract This paper introduces and examines a novel realized volatility forecasting model that makes use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and the risk metric financial turbulence (FT). The proposed model is compared to five alternative models, of which two incorporate LSTM neural networks and the remaining three include GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and HAR models. The results of this paper demonstrate that the proposed model yields statistically significantly more accurate and robust forecasts than all other studied models when applied to stocks with middle-to-high volatility. Yet, considering low-volatility stocks, it can only be confidently affirmed that the proposed model yields statistically significantly more robust forecasts relative to all other models considered.
摘要本文介绍并研究了一种利用长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络和风险度量金融动荡(FT)的新实现的波动率预测模型。将该模型与五种替代模型进行了比较,其中两种模型采用LSTM神经网络,其余三种模型包括GARCH(1,1)、EGARCH(1,1)和HAR模型。本文的结果表明,当应用于中高波动率的股票时,所提出的模型比所有其他已研究的模型具有统计上显著的准确性和稳健性。然而,考虑到低波动性股票,只能自信地肯定,相对于所有其他考虑的模型,所提出的模型在统计上产生更稳健的预测。
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引用次数: 3
Challenges for higher education in the era of widespread access to Generative AI 生成式人工智能时代高等教育面临的挑战
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.743
K. Walczak, W. Cellary
Abstract The aim of this paper is to discuss the role and impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in higher education. The proliferation of AI models such as GPT-4, Open Assistant and DALL-E presents a paradigm shift in information acquisition and learning. This transformation poses substantial challenges for traditional teaching approaches and the role of educators. The paper explores the advantages and potential threats of using Generative AI in education and necessary changes in curricula. It further discusses the need to foster digital literacy and the ethical use of AI. The paper’s findings are based on a survey conducted among university students exploring their usage and perception of these AI systems. Finally, recommendations for the use of AI in higher education are offered, which emphasize the need to harness AI’s potential while mitigating its risks. This discourse aims at stimulating policy and strategy development to ensure relevant and effective education in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.
本文的目的是讨论生成式人工智能(AI)系统在高等教育中的作用和影响。GPT-4、Open Assistant和DALL-E等人工智能模型的激增,带来了信息获取和学习的范式转变。这种转变对传统的教学方法和教育者的角色提出了重大挑战。本文探讨了在教育中使用生成式人工智能的优势和潜在威胁,以及课程的必要改变。它进一步讨论了培养数字素养和道德地使用人工智能的必要性。该论文的发现是基于对大学生进行的一项调查,该调查探讨了他们对这些人工智能系统的使用和感知。最后,提出了在高等教育中使用人工智能的建议,强调需要利用人工智能的潜力,同时降低其风险。本文旨在促进政策和战略的发展,以确保在快速发展的数字环境中进行相关和有效的教育。
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引用次数: 1
How to fly to safety without overpaying for the ticket 如何飞到安全的地方而不多付机票钱
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.738
Tomasz Kaczmarek, Przemysław Grobelny
Abstract For most active investors treasury bonds (govs) provide diversification and thus reduce the risk of a portfolio. These features of govs become particularly desirable in times of elevated risk which materialize in the form of the flight-to-safety (FTS) phenomenon. The FTS for govs provides a shelter during market turbulence and is exceptionally beneficial for portfolio drawdown risk reduction. However, what if the unsatisfactory expected return from treasuries discourages higher bonds allocations? This research proposes a solution to this problem with Deep Target Volatility Equity-Bond Allocation (DTVEBA) that dynamically allocate portfolios between equity and treasuries. The strategy is driven by a state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) that predicts next-day market volatility. An analysis conducted over a twelve year out-of-sample period found that with DTVEBA an investor may reduce treasury allocation by two (three) times to get the same Sharpe (Calmar) ratio and overper-forms the S&P500 index by 43% (115%).
对于大多数积极的投资者来说,国库券提供了分散投资,从而降低了投资组合的风险。在风险升高的时候,政府的这些特征变得特别可取,这种风险以“逃向安全”(FTS)现象的形式出现。为政府提供的FTS在市场动荡期间提供了一个避难所,对减少投资组合的风险特别有益。然而,如果美国国债的预期回报不令人满意,导致投资者不愿增持债券,那该怎么办?本文提出了一种深度目标波动率股票-债券配置(Deep Target Volatility equity - bond Allocation, DTVEBA)方法来解决这一问题。该策略由最先进的循环神经网络(RNN)驱动,该网络可以预测第二天的市场波动。一项为期12年的样本外分析发现,使用DTVEBA,投资者可能会将国债配置减少两(三)倍,以获得相同的夏普(卡尔马)比率,并比标准普尔500指数高出43%(115%)。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate governance, excess-cash and firm value: Evidence from ASEAN-5 公司治理、现金过剩与公司价值:来自东盟五国的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.3
Tahir Akhtar
Abstract This study investigates the role of the country- and firm-level governance practices on the relationship between excess-cash and firm value in ASEAN-5 markets. Using the Generalized Method of Moment models and a sample of 578 firms from 2010 to 2020 the study finds that excess-cash reduces firm value, indicating high agency costs and low firm value. However, excess-cash motivated by managerial ownership, founder CEO, board independence, shareholder rights and creditor rights increase firm value while excess-cash due to managerial entrenchment and CEODuality reduce firm value. In the sub-sample analyses the study finds that entrenched managers and board size play a less effective role in wasting excess-cash in low-excess-cash firms while independent directors play a higher monitoring role in high-excess-cash firms. In addition, governance at the country-level is more effective than at the firm-level in improving the value of excess-cash in large firms. The study offers unique evidence on the relationship between excess-cash and firm value by integrating corporate governance practices at the firm- and country-levels. The research aids practitioners, academics, policymakers and investors in developing the best liquidity policies to enhance business performance.
摘要本研究探讨了东盟五国市场中国家和公司层面的治理实践对过剩现金与公司价值之间关系的影响。利用广义矩模型方法,以2010 - 2020年578家企业为样本,研究发现,现金过剩降低了企业价值,表明代理成本高,企业价值低。然而,由管理层所有权、创始人CEO、董事会独立性、股东权利和债权驱动的现金过剩增加了公司价值,而由管理层堑壕和CEO二元性驱动的现金过剩则降低了公司价值。在子样本分析中,研究发现,在现金低过剩的公司中,根深蒂固的经理和董事会规模在浪费多余现金方面的作用不太有效,而在现金高过剩的公司中,独立董事发挥了更高的监督作用。此外,国家一级的治理比公司一级的治理在提高大公司多余现金的价值方面更有效。该研究通过整合公司和国家层面的公司治理实践,为过量现金与公司价值之间的关系提供了独特的证据。该研究有助于从业者、学者、政策制定者和投资者制定最佳的流动性政策,以提高企业绩效。
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引用次数: 1
Stock returns and liquidity after listing switch on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 华沙证券交易所上市后的股票收益和流动性
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.6
Dorota Podedworna-Tarnowska, Daniel Kaszyński
Abstract The aim of the article is to evaluate the market reaction to the change of listing venue of companies moving from the alternative market to the regulated market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. To do so, we investigated 71 switches, and their effect on market returns and liquidity. While the transfer itself creates a negative market reaction, the announcement of the transfer of a company and the institutional confirmation by the supervision of the company’s readiness for this transfer resulting from the approval of the prospectus creates positive market reactions. As a result of the transfer of companies there is an improvement in the liquidity of the shares. The empirical findings of the study could assist managers and investors in understanding the impact of stock exchange migration on returns and the liquidity of shares in the shorter and longer term.
摘要本文的目的是评估市场对华沙证券交易所从另类市场转向监管市场的上市地点变化的反应。为此,我们调查了71家交易所,以及它们对市场回报和流动性的影响。虽然转让本身会产生负面的市场反应,但公司转让的公告以及监管机构通过批准招股说明书对公司准备转让的确认,会产生积极的市场反应。由于公司的转让,股票的流动性得到了改善。本研究的实证结果可协助经理人和投资者了解证券交易所迁移对股票短期和长期收益和流动性的影响。
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引用次数: 1
World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases 面对第一波COVID-19的世界资本市场:传统事件研究与对新病例的敏感性
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.2
P. L. Angosto-Fernández, Victoria Ferrández-Serrano
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyse the impact of the new coronavirus on financial markets. The sample comprises returns from 80 countries, across all regions and incomes for the period known as the first wave. By combining event study methodology and time series analysis of new COVID-19 cases it is found that the negative price effect is widespread but unequal across regions. It is also noted that the distribution of the impact is also uneven with a high concentration in the week after the first local case but especially in the weeks around the pandemic declaration. Finally, it has been shown at different levels how the markets most affected by the crisis are not necessarily the most sensitive to the virus.
本文的目的是分析新型冠状病毒对金融市场的影响。样本包括来自80个国家的回报,涵盖所有地区和第一波时期的收入。通过将事件研究方法与新冠肺炎病例时间序列分析相结合,发现价格负效应普遍存在,但各地区之间不平等。还注意到,影响的分布也不均匀,在第一例当地病例出现后的一周内高度集中,但在宣布大流行前后的几周内尤其如此。最后,在不同层面上显示,受危机影响最严重的市场不一定对病毒最敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Who is talent? Implications of talent definitions for talent management practice 谁是人才?人才定义对人才管理实践的启示
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.7
A. Skuza, Habte G. Woldu, Shawn Alborz
Abstract Although talent is considered imperative for gaining a competitive advantage, talent management programs’ effectiveness is unknown. It is believed that consensus on a strong theoretical underpinning for identifying talent and its general definition is yet to be achieved among academia and practitioners. This lack of integration and agreement on a single definition among scholars lead to more confusion which inhibits the advancement of talent management scholarship. The notion also requires renewed attention in the post-pandemic era because everything may not go back to normal as pre-pandemic. This study addresses the gap and focuses on reviewing the existing scholarship on talent definitions and its conceptualization in one place. The study also aims to present the potential implications of talent definition on talent management practices. Among the various implications discussed, it is argued that a single approach to talent definition makes the company vulnerable as it is not using the full potential of talent management. Finally, based on this in-depth review, the study will highlight potential critical research areas towards which the scholarship of talent may be extended.
虽然人才被认为是获得竞争优势的必要条件,但人才管理方案的有效性尚不清楚。学术界和实践者对人才识别及其一般定义的强有力的理论基础尚未达成共识。学者之间对单一定义的缺乏整合和一致导致了更多的混乱,从而阻碍了人才管理学术的发展。在大流行后时代,这一概念也需要重新得到关注,因为一切都可能无法恢复到大流行前的正常水平。本研究解决了这一差距,并重点回顾了现有的学者对人才定义及其概念化的研究。本研究还旨在展示人才定义对人才管理实践的潜在影响。在讨论的各种影响中,有人认为,单一的人才定义方法会使公司变得脆弱,因为它没有充分利用人才管理的潜力。最后,在此深入回顾的基础上,本研究将突出人才奖学金可能扩展的潜在关键研究领域。
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引用次数: 0
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Economics and Business Review
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