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Climate crisis, central banks and the IMF reform 气候危机,中央银行和国际货币基金组织改革
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.2
A. Chmielewska, A. Sławiński
Abstract This paper explores some of the ways in which international central banking can contribute to containing the imminent worldwide climate crisis in a context in which the role of national central banks is important but effectively limited to employing two new stabilization policy tools: macroprudential policy and QE programmes. The authors argue in favour of institutional reform that would gradually transform the IMF into an international central bank and the SDR into a genuine international currency. Even its limited scope would substantially increase the IMF’s capacity to solve one of the key problems of the global climate policy, namely the shortage of funding for the decarbonization of developing economies.
本文探讨了国际中央银行在遏制迫在眉睫的全球气候危机方面可以做出贡献的一些方式,在这种背景下,各国中央银行的作用很重要,但实际上仅限于采用两种新的稳定政策工具:宏观审慎政策和量化宽松计划。作者主张进行机构改革,逐步将IMF转变为一家国际央行,并将SDR转变为一种真正的国际货币。即使它的范围有限,也将大大增加IMF解决全球气候政策的一个关键问题的能力,即发展中经济体脱碳资金短缺。
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引用次数: 0
The monitoring role of multiple large shareholders and the catering effect of dividends: Evidence from Poland 多家大股东的监督作用与股利的迎合效应:来自波兰的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.5
Aleksandra Pieloch-Babiarz
Abstract On the world capital markets, there is a lack of research on how multiple large shareholders (MLS) monitoring of the first largest shareholder affects the catering effect of dividends. To fill this research gap, one should ascertain whether MLS control the first largest shareholder to align pay-outs with investor sentiment for dividends. Therefore, the aim of this article is to assess the integrated MLS impact on the strength of the catering effect of dividends. The study covers Polish electrotechnical companies in 2009–2020 with the use of fixed effects models. The value added is that the paper presents the results of novel research concerning the impact of MLS on dividends. The main findings are: 1) the strongest catering effect is observed when the total number of shares held by MLS is large; 2) the catering effect weakens most when the first largest shareholder is a controlling shareholder and the second largest owner holds relatively many shares.
摘要在世界资本市场上,对多大股东对第一大股东的监控如何影响股利迎合效应的研究还比较缺乏。为了填补这一研究空白,人们应该确定MLS是否控制了第一大股东,使派息与投资者对派息的情绪保持一致。因此,本文的目的是评估综合MLS对股利迎合效应强度的影响。该研究采用固定效应模型,涵盖了2009-2020年波兰电工公司。增加的价值在于本文提出了关于按揭贷款对股利影响的新颖研究成果。研究发现:1)当MLS持股总量较大时,迎合效应最强;(2)当第一大股东为控股股东,第二大股东持股较多时,迎合效应最弱。
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引用次数: 1
Agricultural commodities: An integrated approach to assess the volatility spillover and dynamic connectedness 农产品:评估波动、溢出和动态联系的综合方法
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.3
A. Mishra, R. P. Kumar
Abstract In this article the dynamic connectedness between the five agricultural commodities is examined by implementing the Diebold and Yılmaz (VAR based) and Time--Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) measures for understanding the time-varying variance-covariance mechanism using daily data for the period of 2005 to 2019. The findings reveal that at an overall level all the commodity prices are less susceptible to significant volatility shocks from other commodities specifically before the introduction of the pan-India electronic trading portal (eNAM). Cotton prices do not show any variation due to spillover from others for the entire study period. The volatility spillover is visible post eNAM period particularly for the commodity stock prices. Whereas at an overall level the total directional connectedness has gone down in the post eNAM era. The network analysis suggests that the commodity stock prices show a stronger association as compared to market prices. Generally commodity prices show volatility connectedness but with respect to their own market which means strong spillover is missing among both the markets.
摘要本文利用2005年至2019年的日常数据,通过Diebold和Yılmaz(基于VAR)和时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法来理解时变方差-协方差机制,研究了五种农产品之间的动态联系。研究结果表明,总体而言,所有商品价格都不太容易受到其他商品的显著波动冲击,特别是在引入泛印度电子交易门户网站(eNAM)之前。在整个研究期间,棉花价格没有显示出由于其他产品的溢出效应而产生的任何变化。在eNAM之后,波动性溢出是明显的,特别是对大宗商品股票价格而言。而在后eNAM时代,整体上的定向连通性有所下降。网络分析表明,与市场价格相比,商品股票价格表现出更强的相关性。一般来说,大宗商品价格表现出波动性的连通性,但相对于它们自己的市场而言,这意味着两个市场之间缺乏强大的溢出效应。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between information and communication technologies and female labour force participation in Turkey 土耳其信息和通信技术与妇女劳动力参与之间的关系
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.7
Samet Tüzemen, Özge Barış-Tüzemen, A. Çelik
Abstract The elimination of all forms of discrimination between the sexes is not only a fundamental human right but it also is very important to support all other areas of development, particularly sustainable development. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the role of information and communication technologies on employment inequality in Turkey. Therefore, the relationship between ICT applications and female labour force participation is investigated with the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and impulse response analysis. The results showed that there is no association between information and communication technologies and the female labour force participation rate for the period 1988–2018. These findings may suggest that developing countries also need to have a certain level of development in other areas such as democracy, fundamental rights and freedoms and the rule of law to benefit from the opportunities that information and communication technologies offer to empower the whole society including women.
消除一切形式的性别歧视不仅是一项基本人权,而且对支持所有其他领域的发展,特别是可持续发展也非常重要。本研究的目的是实证调查信息和通信技术对土耳其就业不平等的作用。因此,本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型和脉冲响应分析来研究ICT应用与女性劳动力参与之间的关系。结果显示,1988年至2018年期间,信息和通信技术与女性劳动力参与率之间没有关联。这些调查结果可能表明,发展中国家还需要在民主、基本权利和自由以及法治等其他领域取得一定程度的发展,以便从信息和通信技术为包括妇女在内的整个社会赋权所提供的机会中受益。
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引用次数: 2
“Every knock is a boost”. Cyber risk behaviour among Poles “每一次打击都是一次提升”。波兰人的网络风险行为
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.6
E. Cichowicz, Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Łukasz Kurowski
Abstract The purpose of this study is to evaluate the safety of individuals’ behaviour in the cyber world, especially when using financial services. The article focuses on knowledge of cybersecurity issues, cyber risk awareness and respondents’ self-assessment as potential determinants of individual behaviour. The data obtained from a survey of a representative group of Polish citizens during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was analysed. Ordinal logistic regression and instrumental variable analysis confirm the existence of a positive relationship between knowledge and awareness of cyber risk and safe behaviour in the cyber world. Older generations exhibit safer behaviour which may be linked to their life experience; however, the results do not confirm that experiencing a loss due to cyber risk convinces individuals to use Internet-based solutions in a safer manner. Therefore, educational campaigns should be expanded to include cyber risk issues and tailored to the needs of various users.
摘要本研究的目的是评估个人在网络世界中的行为安全性,特别是在使用金融服务时。本文重点关注网络安全问题的知识,网络风险意识和受访者的自我评估作为个人行为的潜在决定因素。分析了在第二波COVID-19大流行期间对波兰公民代表性群体进行的调查所获得的数据。有序逻辑回归和工具变量分析证实,网络风险知识和意识与网络世界中的安全行为之间存在正相关关系。老一代表现出更安全的行为,这可能与他们的生活经历有关;然而,研究结果并不能证实,由于网络风险而遭受损失的个人会以更安全的方式使用基于互联网的解决方案。因此,教育活动应该扩大到包括网络风险问题,并根据不同用户的需求量身定制。
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引用次数: 0
Does volatility mediate the impact of analyst recommendations on herding in Malaysian stock market? 波动率是否介导了分析师建议对马来西亚股市羊群效应的影响?
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.4
Ooi Kok Loang, Zamri Ahmad
Abstract This study examines the mediating role of volatility on the relationship between analyst recommendations and herding in the Malaysian stock market by using data from 2010 to 2020. Volatility is measured by realized volatility and the Parkinson estimator. The empirical evidence suggests that herding exists and realized volatility intervenes in the direct relationship between analyst recommendations and herding. The release of analyst recommendations causes realized volatility to fluctuate and investors are triggered by the volatility, which in turn follow the crowd to herd. Nonetheless, the Parkinson estimator is found to be insignificant, which infers that investors have anchor bias and rely on previous day stock prices to trade and herd. This paper provides an alternative explanation to the direct relationship and enhances the study of information-based herding. It contributes to academicians, practitioners, investors and policymakers to understand the herding of investors in responding to the arrival of new information.
摘要本研究利用2010年至2020年的数据,检验波动性对马来西亚股票市场分析师推荐与羊群效应之间关系的中介作用。波动率由实现波动率和帕金森估计量测量。实证证据表明,羊群效应存在,已实现波动率干预了分析师推荐与羊群效应的直接关系。分析师建议的发布导致已实现波动率的波动,投资者被波动率所触发,进而跟风从众。尽管如此,帕金森估计量被发现是不显著的,这推断投资者有锚偏差,并依赖前一天的股票价格进行交易和羊群。本文为这种直接关系提供了另一种解释,加强了对信息羊群的研究。它有助于学者、从业者、投资者和政策制定者了解投资者对新信息的反应。
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引用次数: 4
A synthesis of evolutionary and behavioural economics 进化经济学和行为经济学的综合
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.3
J. Polowczyk
Abstract The article presents the current state of evolutionary economics against the backdrop of changes related to the potential use of the achievements of other social sciences, in particular psychology, as well as dynamically developing neuroscience. The article suggests a synthesis of evolutionary and behavioural economics concepts as a logical consequence of evolutionary cooperation processes in social sciences. Interdisciplinary initiatives create new perspectives on generation synergy effects for all participants. Contemporary evolutionary economists present the nature of ongoing innovation-driven economic change as a long evolutionary process. The main creator of the econosphere as a global system is a man–entrepreneur who is also the result of evolutionary processes. For this reason evolutionary economics should take into account the results of behavioural economics’ research based on modern psychology and neuro-science. The cornerstone of evolutionary and behavioural economics synthesis are the theories of Adam Smith which should be regarded as his holistic intellectual heritage.
本文介绍了进化经济学在其他社会科学(特别是心理学)以及动态发展的神经科学成果的潜在应用变化背景下的现状。本文建议将进化经济学和行为经济学概念综合起来,作为社会科学中进化合作过程的逻辑结果。跨学科倡议为所有参与者创造了发电协同效应的新视角。当代进化经济学家将持续创新驱动的经济变革的本质视为一个长期的进化过程。作为一个全球系统的经济圈的主要创造者是一个人类企业家,他也是进化过程的结果。因此,进化经济学应该考虑以现代心理学和神经科学为基础的行为经济学的研究成果。进化经济学和行为经济学综合的基石是亚当·斯密的理论,这应该被视为他的整体知识遗产。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of the relationship between countercyclical capital buffer and performance and risk indicators of the banking sector 逆周期资本缓冲与银行业绩效及风险指标的关系分析
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.7
F. Yıldırım
Abstract This study aims to explain the association between the quarterly data obtained over the period 2007: Q2–2020: Q3 for Turkey and the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) proposed within the framework of Basel III with banking performance and risk indicators. For this purpose the association among the variables was analyzed using the ARDL model and by performing the Toda Yamamoto (T-Y) causality test. According to the analysis results, it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy indicators of the banks in the long-run, however, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and currency risk indicators. In the short-run it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity indicators and similar to the long-term relationship, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and exchange rate risk indicators. According to the causality test results, a statistically significant and unilateral causality running from the indicators of capital adequacy, asset quality and exchange rate risk to the CCyB was detected. The obtained estimation results indicate that the CCyB can be increased by policymakers during the periods when the performance indicators of the banking sector rise, whereas can be decreased by policymakers during the periods when the risk indicators of the sector rise. Furthermore, the results of the study asserted that the CCyB was an appropriate instrument for mitigating the macroeconomic and systemic risks for Turkey.
本研究旨在解释土耳其2007年第二季度至2020年第三季度期间获得的季度数据与巴塞尔协议III框架内提出的银行绩效和风险指标的逆周期资本缓冲(CCyB)之间的关联。为此,使用ARDL模型和执行Toda Yamamoto (T-Y)因果检验来分析变量之间的关联。根据分析结果,确定CCyB与银行资本充足率指标长期呈统计学显著正相关,而与资产质量风险和货币风险指标呈统计学显著负相关。在短期内,我们确定CCyB与资本充足率、盈利能力和流动性指标具有统计显著的正相关关系,与长期关系类似,它与资产质量风险和汇率风险指标具有统计显著的负相关关系。根据因果检验结果,从资本充足率指标、资产质量指标和汇率风险指标对CCyB存在统计显著的单边因果关系。所得估计结果表明,在银行业绩效指标上升期间,政策制定者可以增加CCyB,而在银行业风险指标上升期间,政策制定者可以降低CCyB。此外,研究结果表明,CCyB是减轻土耳其宏观经济和系统风险的适当工具。
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引用次数: 1
Distortionary effects of economic crises on policy coordination in Turkey: Threshold GMM approach 经济危机对土耳其政策协调的扭曲效应:阈值GMM方法
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.6
Metin Teti̇k, M. Yıldırım
Abstract This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and how crises affect the coordination between policymakers in Turkey. This study’s novelty is that a nonlinear Taylor rule indicating monetary policy response function is estimated based on the Threshold Generalized Method of Moments (Threshold GMM) methodology over the period January 2006—March 2020. The empirical findings reveal that when fiscal policy has an expansionary stage, especially in crises times, the policy interest rate does not react significantly to the inflation gap, output gap and real effective exchange rate gap in expansionary periods. On the contrary the policy interest rate gives statistically important responses to these variables during contractionary fiscal policy periods. Thus, the effectiveness of the Taylor rule appears in a period of contractionary fiscal policy. This situation gives rise to the significant policy implication that the monetary policymaker’s success in controlling inflation increases with the contractionary fiscal policy. Finally, it has been observed that effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies did not occur during crisis periods, but compatible coordination was achieved in other periods.
摘要本研究探讨了土耳其财政和货币政策之间的相互作用,以及危机如何影响政策制定者之间的协调。本研究的新颖之处在于,在2006年1月至2020年3月期间,根据阈值广义矩量法(Threshold GMM)方法估计了一个非线性泰勒规则,该规则表明货币政策响应函数。实证结果表明,当财政政策处于扩张期时,特别是在危机时期,政策利率对扩张期通胀缺口、产出缺口和实际有效汇率缺口的反应不显著。相反,在紧缩财政政策期间,政策利率对这些变量给出了统计上重要的响应。因此,泰勒规则的有效性出现在紧缩财政政策时期。这种情况产生了一个重要的政策暗示,即货币政策制定者在控制通胀方面的成功随着紧缩的财政政策而增加。最后,我们观察到,在危机时期,货币政策和财政政策之间没有发生有效的协调,但在其他时期却实现了相容的协调。
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引用次数: 0
What did it take for Lucas to set up ‘useful’ analogue systems in monetary business cycle theory? 卢卡斯是如何在货币经济周期理论中建立起“有用的”模拟系统的?
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.5
Peter Galbács
Abstract This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term ‘analogue systems’ and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model with remarkable predictive success can be regarded as an analogue system, the term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful Lucas supposed models to meet further requirements. These prerequisites are introduced in two steps in the paper. First, some properties of ‘useless’ Keynesian macroeconometric models come to the fore as contrasting cases. Second, it is argued that Lucas suggested two assumptions as the keys to usefulness for he conceived them as referring to genuine components of social reality and hence as true propositions. One is money as a causal instrument and the other is the choice-theoretic framework to describe the causal mechanisms underlying large-scale fluctuations. Extensive quotes from Lucas’s unpublished materials underpin the claims.
本文提供了一个看卢卡斯的意思是什么术语“模拟系统”,以及他是如何构思使他们有用。有人认为,任何具有显著预测成功的模型都可以被视为模拟系统,因此该术语在有用性方面是中性的。为了更有用,卢卡斯假设了一些模型来满足进一步的需求。本文分两步介绍了这些前提条件。首先,“无用的”凯恩斯宏观计量经济学模型的一些特性作为对比案例脱颖而出。其次,有人认为卢卡斯提出了两个假设作为有用性的关键,因为他认为它们是指社会现实的真正组成部分,因此是真命题。一个是货币作为因果工具,另一个是描述大规模波动背后因果机制的选择理论框架。大量引用卢卡斯未发表的材料来支持这种说法。
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引用次数: 0
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Economics and Business Review
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