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How to fly to safety without overpaying for the ticket 如何飞到安全的地方而不多付机票钱
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.2.738
Tomasz Kaczmarek, Przemysław Grobelny
Abstract For most active investors treasury bonds (govs) provide diversification and thus reduce the risk of a portfolio. These features of govs become particularly desirable in times of elevated risk which materialize in the form of the flight-to-safety (FTS) phenomenon. The FTS for govs provides a shelter during market turbulence and is exceptionally beneficial for portfolio drawdown risk reduction. However, what if the unsatisfactory expected return from treasuries discourages higher bonds allocations? This research proposes a solution to this problem with Deep Target Volatility Equity-Bond Allocation (DTVEBA) that dynamically allocate portfolios between equity and treasuries. The strategy is driven by a state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) that predicts next-day market volatility. An analysis conducted over a twelve year out-of-sample period found that with DTVEBA an investor may reduce treasury allocation by two (three) times to get the same Sharpe (Calmar) ratio and overper-forms the S&P500 index by 43% (115%).
对于大多数积极的投资者来说,国库券提供了分散投资,从而降低了投资组合的风险。在风险升高的时候,政府的这些特征变得特别可取,这种风险以“逃向安全”(FTS)现象的形式出现。为政府提供的FTS在市场动荡期间提供了一个避难所,对减少投资组合的风险特别有益。然而,如果美国国债的预期回报不令人满意,导致投资者不愿增持债券,那该怎么办?本文提出了一种深度目标波动率股票-债券配置(Deep Target Volatility equity - bond Allocation, DTVEBA)方法来解决这一问题。该策略由最先进的循环神经网络(RNN)驱动,该网络可以预测第二天的市场波动。一项为期12年的样本外分析发现,使用DTVEBA,投资者可能会将国债配置减少两(三)倍,以获得相同的夏普(卡尔马)比率,并比标准普尔500指数高出43%(115%)。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate governance, excess-cash and firm value: Evidence from ASEAN-5 公司治理、现金过剩与公司价值:来自东盟五国的证据
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.3
Tahir Akhtar
Abstract This study investigates the role of the country- and firm-level governance practices on the relationship between excess-cash and firm value in ASEAN-5 markets. Using the Generalized Method of Moment models and a sample of 578 firms from 2010 to 2020 the study finds that excess-cash reduces firm value, indicating high agency costs and low firm value. However, excess-cash motivated by managerial ownership, founder CEO, board independence, shareholder rights and creditor rights increase firm value while excess-cash due to managerial entrenchment and CEODuality reduce firm value. In the sub-sample analyses the study finds that entrenched managers and board size play a less effective role in wasting excess-cash in low-excess-cash firms while independent directors play a higher monitoring role in high-excess-cash firms. In addition, governance at the country-level is more effective than at the firm-level in improving the value of excess-cash in large firms. The study offers unique evidence on the relationship between excess-cash and firm value by integrating corporate governance practices at the firm- and country-levels. The research aids practitioners, academics, policymakers and investors in developing the best liquidity policies to enhance business performance.
摘要本研究探讨了东盟五国市场中国家和公司层面的治理实践对过剩现金与公司价值之间关系的影响。利用广义矩模型方法,以2010 - 2020年578家企业为样本,研究发现,现金过剩降低了企业价值,表明代理成本高,企业价值低。然而,由管理层所有权、创始人CEO、董事会独立性、股东权利和债权驱动的现金过剩增加了公司价值,而由管理层堑壕和CEO二元性驱动的现金过剩则降低了公司价值。在子样本分析中,研究发现,在现金低过剩的公司中,根深蒂固的经理和董事会规模在浪费多余现金方面的作用不太有效,而在现金高过剩的公司中,独立董事发挥了更高的监督作用。此外,国家一级的治理比公司一级的治理在提高大公司多余现金的价值方面更有效。该研究通过整合公司和国家层面的公司治理实践,为过量现金与公司价值之间的关系提供了独特的证据。该研究有助于从业者、学者、政策制定者和投资者制定最佳的流动性政策,以提高企业绩效。
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引用次数: 1
Stock returns and liquidity after listing switch on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 华沙证券交易所上市后的股票收益和流动性
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.6
Dorota Podedworna-Tarnowska, Daniel Kaszyński
Abstract The aim of the article is to evaluate the market reaction to the change of listing venue of companies moving from the alternative market to the regulated market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. To do so, we investigated 71 switches, and their effect on market returns and liquidity. While the transfer itself creates a negative market reaction, the announcement of the transfer of a company and the institutional confirmation by the supervision of the company’s readiness for this transfer resulting from the approval of the prospectus creates positive market reactions. As a result of the transfer of companies there is an improvement in the liquidity of the shares. The empirical findings of the study could assist managers and investors in understanding the impact of stock exchange migration on returns and the liquidity of shares in the shorter and longer term.
摘要本文的目的是评估市场对华沙证券交易所从另类市场转向监管市场的上市地点变化的反应。为此,我们调查了71家交易所,以及它们对市场回报和流动性的影响。虽然转让本身会产生负面的市场反应,但公司转让的公告以及监管机构通过批准招股说明书对公司准备转让的确认,会产生积极的市场反应。由于公司的转让,股票的流动性得到了改善。本研究的实证结果可协助经理人和投资者了解证券交易所迁移对股票短期和长期收益和流动性的影响。
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引用次数: 1
World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases 面对第一波COVID-19的世界资本市场:传统事件研究与对新病例的敏感性
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.2
P. L. Angosto-Fernández, Victoria Ferrández-Serrano
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyse the impact of the new coronavirus on financial markets. The sample comprises returns from 80 countries, across all regions and incomes for the period known as the first wave. By combining event study methodology and time series analysis of new COVID-19 cases it is found that the negative price effect is widespread but unequal across regions. It is also noted that the distribution of the impact is also uneven with a high concentration in the week after the first local case but especially in the weeks around the pandemic declaration. Finally, it has been shown at different levels how the markets most affected by the crisis are not necessarily the most sensitive to the virus.
本文的目的是分析新型冠状病毒对金融市场的影响。样本包括来自80个国家的回报,涵盖所有地区和第一波时期的收入。通过将事件研究方法与新冠肺炎病例时间序列分析相结合,发现价格负效应普遍存在,但各地区之间不平等。还注意到,影响的分布也不均匀,在第一例当地病例出现后的一周内高度集中,但在宣布大流行前后的几周内尤其如此。最后,在不同层面上显示,受危机影响最严重的市场不一定对病毒最敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Who is talent? Implications of talent definitions for talent management practice 谁是人才?人才定义对人才管理实践的启示
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.7
A. Skuza, Habte G. Woldu, Shawn Alborz
Abstract Although talent is considered imperative for gaining a competitive advantage, talent management programs’ effectiveness is unknown. It is believed that consensus on a strong theoretical underpinning for identifying talent and its general definition is yet to be achieved among academia and practitioners. This lack of integration and agreement on a single definition among scholars lead to more confusion which inhibits the advancement of talent management scholarship. The notion also requires renewed attention in the post-pandemic era because everything may not go back to normal as pre-pandemic. This study addresses the gap and focuses on reviewing the existing scholarship on talent definitions and its conceptualization in one place. The study also aims to present the potential implications of talent definition on talent management practices. Among the various implications discussed, it is argued that a single approach to talent definition makes the company vulnerable as it is not using the full potential of talent management. Finally, based on this in-depth review, the study will highlight potential critical research areas towards which the scholarship of talent may be extended.
虽然人才被认为是获得竞争优势的必要条件,但人才管理方案的有效性尚不清楚。学术界和实践者对人才识别及其一般定义的强有力的理论基础尚未达成共识。学者之间对单一定义的缺乏整合和一致导致了更多的混乱,从而阻碍了人才管理学术的发展。在大流行后时代,这一概念也需要重新得到关注,因为一切都可能无法恢复到大流行前的正常水平。本研究解决了这一差距,并重点回顾了现有的学者对人才定义及其概念化的研究。本研究还旨在展示人才定义对人才管理实践的潜在影响。在讨论的各种影响中,有人认为,单一的人才定义方法会使公司变得脆弱,因为它没有充分利用人才管理的潜力。最后,在此深入回顾的基础上,本研究将突出人才奖学金可能扩展的潜在关键研究领域。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the effect of credit on monetary policy with Markov regime switching: Evidence from Turkey 用马尔可夫制度转换考察信贷对货币政策的影响:来自土耳其的证据
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.4
A. Ilhan
Abstract This paper analyses the effect of credit on monetary policy responses for different regimes in Turkey. To do so, the Taylor rule augmented with the credit gap is estimated by using a Markov regime switching model from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings identify two regimes: the low- and high-interest rate regimes. The prevalence of the former indicates policy authorities’ growth priorities. Furthermore, differing responses across the regimes reflect that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has an asymmetric policy stance. In the low-interest rate regime, the monetary policy only significantly responds to inflation. In the high-interest rate regime, both inflation and credit have significant positive impacts on interest rate setting. This indicates that credit conditions affected the tightening of the monetary policy stance in Turkey despite the use of macroprudential tools after the global financial crisis.
摘要本文分析了信贷对土耳其不同制度下货币政策反应的影响。为此,通过使用2006年1月至2019年12月的马尔可夫状态切换模型来估计带有信用缺口的泰勒规则。实证研究结果确定了两种制度:低利率制度和高利率制度。前者的盛行表明了政策当局的增长重点。此外,各政权的不同反应反映了土耳其共和国中央银行的政策立场不对称。在低利率制度下,货币政策只对通胀作出显著反应。在高利率制度下,通货膨胀和信贷对利率设定都有显著的正向影响。这表明,尽管在全球金融危机后使用了宏观审慎工具,但信贷状况影响了土耳其货币政策立场的收紧。
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引用次数: 0
Wage determination, Global Value Chains and role played by wage bargaining schemes: The case of Poland 工资决定、全球价值链和工资谈判机制的作用:以波兰为例
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.4.5
D. Nikulin, Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz
Abstract This study examines the linkages between GVC involvement and wages in Poland given different wage bargaining schemes. The analysis is based on microdata from the European Structure of Earnings Survey for Poland combined with sectoral data from the World Input-Output Database. In particular, two measures of GVC involvement were used: the share of foreign value added (FVA) to export and the measure of traditional offshoring. The institutional settings are represented by the wage bargaining scheme which reflects the level at which the collective pay is agreed. The results show that despite the lack of a significant relationship between the sectoral involvement in GVC and the level of wages in Poland, on average workers covered by the collective pay agreement receive higher wages. Moreover, the wage-GVC nexus is conditioned on the type of pay agreements: the positive wage effect from national agreements is eliminated for a certain range of GVC intensity.
摘要本研究考察了全球价值链参与与波兰工资之间的联系,给出了不同的工资谈判方案。该分析基于波兰欧洲收入结构调查的微观数据,以及世界投入产出数据库的部门数据。特别地,采用了全球价值链参与的两种衡量标准:出口的外国增加值(FVA)份额和传统离岸外包的衡量标准。制度环境由工资谈判方案代表,该方案反映了商定的集体工资水平。结果表明,尽管参与全球价值链的部门与波兰工资水平之间缺乏显著关系,但集体工资协议所涵盖的工人平均工资较高。此外,工资与全球价值链的关系取决于薪酬协议的类型:在全球价值链强度的一定范围内,国家协议的积极工资效应被消除。
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引用次数: 0
Marriage, divorce and coronavirus—theoretical analysis of the influence of COVID-19 on family capital 婚姻、离婚与冠状病毒——新冠肺炎对家庭资本影响的理论分析
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.3.7
Paulina Malaczewska, Maciej Malaczewski
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to provide the framework to analyze the impact of shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the level of divorce. The model takes into account family/marriage capital with its depreciation, investments in this capital and the costs of divorce. The problem faced by the agent is analyzed and formulas for the optimal division of income between consumption and investments in family capital are derived. Comparative statics is performed by calculating the signs of all derivatives of all variables with respect to all parameters. The analysis shows that a change in economic conditions has the least effect of any factor influenced by COVID-19 in changing the probability of a divorce. To the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first mathematical model in the literature that covers the issues of the impact of a lock-down on the durability of marriages.
摘要本文旨在为分析COVID-19大流行相关冲击对离婚水平的影响提供框架。该模型考虑了家庭/婚姻资本及其折旧、对该资本的投资和离婚成本。分析了代理人所面临的问题,导出了家庭资本消费与投资收益的最优分配公式。比较静力学是通过计算所有变量相对于所有参数的所有导数的符号来完成的。分析显示,在受新冠疫情影响的所有因素中,经济状况的变化对离婚概率的影响最小。据作者所知,这是文献中第一个涵盖了禁闭对婚姻持久性影响问题的数学模型。
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引用次数: 0
Energy tokens as digital instruments of financial investment 能源代币作为金融投资的数字工具
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.3.6
Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Marcin Wiśniewski
Abstract The aim of the paper is to evaluate the investment attractiveness of selected energy tokens from the point of view of the effectiveness measures applied to ordinary financial instruments. The authors also classify energy tokens among climate-aligned tokens and digital instruments of green investments financing. In this way, it was possible to compare energy tokens against traditional financial instruments. Furthermore, the authors attempted to investigate the relationship between the formation of returns of the researched energy tokens and the returns on stock and commodity markets. The results of the study indicate the low investment attractiveness of energy tokens compared to investments in stock markets, commodity markets and investments in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The research therefore indicates that buyers of energy tokens today should not be driven by investment or speculative motives but rather by a desire to obtain a means of clearing energy trading, or other utility.
摘要本文的目的是从适用于普通金融工具的有效性措施的角度来评估选定的能源代币的投资吸引力。作者还将能源代币分为与气候相关的代币和绿色投资融资的数字工具。通过这种方式,可以将能源代币与传统金融工具进行比较。此外,本文还试图探讨所研究的能源代币的收益形成与股票和商品市场的收益之间的关系。研究结果表明,与股票市场、商品市场以及比特币和以太坊等主要加密货币的投资相比,能源代币的投资吸引力较低。因此,研究表明,今天能源代币的买家不应该受到投资或投机动机的驱动,而是希望获得一种清算能源交易或其他公用事业的手段。
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引用次数: 0
Absurda lex, sed lex? Public value and the decay of the Rule of Law: A conceptual perspective 荒谬的莱克斯,是吗?公共价值与法治的衰落:一个概念视角
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2022.3.2
Erick Behar-Villegas
Abstract The Rule of Law serves, under a broadly accepted notion of justice, the enforcement of property rights and a relative predictability of citizen affairs, i.e. it fosters Public Value. However, it is subject to risks that materialise in weakened institutions, uncertainty and transaction costs. The connection between Public Value and the Rule of Law becomes salient when understanding how the latter degenerates at the expense of the former. This article provides two theoretical frameworks that explain the connection between the two concepts, as well as three manifestations of the Rule of Law’s decay. These comprise the excess of legal-formalism, the excess of discretion in enforcement and the instrumentalisation of the law, i.e. when it embodies injustice. Although they vary depending on the legal system, these aspects build a conceptual body that illustrates how contingent legal outcomes affect society, developing Daly’s (2019) concept of democratic decay in the economics and business literature.
在一个被广泛接受的正义概念下,法治服务于财产权的执行和公民事务的相对可预测性,即它促进公共价值。然而,它会受到削弱的机构、不确定性和交易成本所带来的风险的影响。当我们理解公共价值如何以牺牲公共价值为代价而退化时,公共价值与法治之间的联系就显得尤为突出。本文提供了两个理论框架来解释这两个概念之间的联系,以及法治衰败的三种表现。这包括法律形式主义的过度、执法中自由裁量权的过度和法律的工具化,即当它体现不公正时。虽然它们因法律制度而异,但这些方面建立了一个概念体,说明了偶然的法律结果如何影响社会,发展了戴利(2019)在经济和商业文献中的民主衰退概念。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Economics and Business Review
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