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Income inequality in New Zealand: Why conventional estimates are misleading 新西兰的收入不平等:为什么传统的估计是误导性的
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.22459/AG.26.01.2019.01
J. Creedy, N. Gemmell
Considerable attention is currently being paid to establishing the extent of inequality in New Zealand and whether it has risen in recent years. This paper offers some insights into the inequality measures and interpretations that commonly feature in those debates. These typically relate to cross-sectional inequality, such as annual Gini coefficients for various income definitions, or comparisons of income growth rates across income deciles. But failure to take into account the longitudinal dimension of inequality can lead to misinterpretations of inequality data and measures. The paper shows that examining longitudinal income data for the same individuals over time strongly contradicts cross-sectional inequality evidence. For example, some recent cross-sectional inequality measures suggest that the incomes of initially low-income households grew at slower rates than those with initially higher-incomes. This has been interpreted as the poorest earners being ‘left behind’. But recent longitudinal data, at least for individuals, reveals evidence of much faster-than-average growth among initially lower, compared to higher, income earners. Thus, ‘regression to the mean’ is a dominant feature of the longitudinal data.
目前正在相当重视确定新西兰的不平等程度,以及近年来这种不平等程度是否有所上升。本文对这些辩论中常见的不平等衡量和解释提供了一些见解。这些通常与横断面不平等有关,例如不同收入定义的年度基尼系数,或收入十分位数之间的收入增长率比较。但是,不考虑不平等的纵向维度可能导致对不平等数据和措施的误解。这篇论文表明,对同一个人长期的纵向收入数据进行检查,与横截面不平等的证据强烈矛盾。例如,最近的一些横断面不平等测量表明,最初低收入家庭的收入增长速度低于那些最初收入较高的家庭。这被解释为最贫穷的收入者被“落在后面”。但最近的纵向数据(至少对个人而言)显示,与收入较高的人相比,收入较低的人的增长速度远快于平均水平。因此,“回归均值”是纵向数据的主要特征。
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引用次数: 2
When I’m 64: What do New Zealanders want in a retirement income policy? 当我64岁时:新西兰人想从退休收入政策中得到什么?
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/ag.26.01.2019.02
J. Au, A. Coleman, T. Sullivan
It is difficult to choose policies when people have diverse preferences over outcomes and many alternative policy settings are available. To do this well, policymakers must understand underlying preferences and rank policies according to these preferences. In this paper, we use multi‐criteria decision analysis techniques to understand the relative attractiveness of retirement policy reforms in New Zealand. Using a nationally representative sample, we estimate individual preferences over seven aspects of retirement policy, characterise the diversity of these preferences, and rank three different policy options. We find that a policy which raises taxes to prefund the government retirement income scheme would be supported by a majority of people of all ages and income groups, and would be much more popular than a policy that 1 andrew.coleman@otago.ac.nz, The Department of Economics, University of Otago; joey.au@mbie.govt.nz, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand; Trudy.Sullivan@otago.ac.nz, The Department of Preventative and Social Medicine, University of Otago. We would like to thank Diane Maxwell, Malcolm Menzies, Richard Thompson, Kathryn Maloney and Tania Werder at the Commission for Financial Capability for their advice and support while the project was undertaken. Several staff at the New Zealand Treasury assisted in the project. We would particularly like to thank Girol Karacaoglu, Gabriel Makhlouf, Chris Ball, Matthew Bell, Deborah Cuzens, Margaret Galt, Bryan McDaniel and Paul Rodway. We are indebted for the assistance provided by the staff of 1000Minds, Paul Hansen and Franz Ombler, throughout the project and for comments on the paper. We also wish to thank the staff of Colmar Brunton, particularly Leilani Liew, for their help in fine‐tuning and implementing the questionnaire. We are grateful for the time the members of focus groups in Dunedin, Wellington and Auckland spent with us discussing their views, including Atene Andrews and the Hikoikoi Kaumātua group in Petone. Lastly, we wish to thank seminar participants and discussants at the University of Otago, the University of Auckland and the Western International Economics Conference, with particular thanks to Arthur Grimes from Motu. We also wish to thank Matt Benge, Norman Gemmell, Nicola Kirkup, David Law, Trinh Le and Jacques Poot for their helpful comments and suggestions. This project received financial support from the New Zealand Treasury, Wellington, and the Commission for Financial Capability, Auckland, New Zealand. AgendA, Volume 26, number 1, 2019 24 raises the age of eligibility. The results suggest multi‐criteria decision analysis has considerable potential to help policymakers develop policies that are aligned with people’s preferences.
当人们对结果有不同的偏好,并且有许多可供选择的政策设置时,很难选择政策。要做到这一点,政策制定者必须了解潜在的偏好,并根据这些偏好对政策进行排序。在本文中,我们使用多标准决策分析技术来了解新西兰退休政策改革的相对吸引力。通过一个具有全国代表性的样本,我们估计了个人对退休政策七个方面的偏好,描述了这些偏好的多样性,并对三种不同的政策选择进行了排名。我们发现,提高税收为政府退休收入计划预先提供资金的政策将得到所有年龄和收入群体的大多数人的支持,并且将比1 andrew.coleman@otago.ac.nz的政策更受欢迎,奥塔哥大学经济系;joey.au@mbie.govt.nz,新西兰商业、创新和就业部;Trudy.Sullivan@otago.ac.nz,奥塔哥大学预防和社会医学系。我们要感谢财政能力委员会的Diane Maxwell、Malcolm Menzies、Richard Thompson、Kathryn Maloney和Tania Werder在项目实施期间提供的建议和支持。新西兰财政部的几名工作人员协助了该项目。我们要特别感谢吉罗尔·卡拉考奥卢、加布里埃尔·马赫洛夫、克里斯·鲍尔、马修·贝尔、黛博拉·库赞斯、玛格丽特·高尔特、布莱恩·麦克丹尼尔和保罗·罗德威。我们非常感谢1000Minds的工作人员Paul Hansen和Franz Ombler在整个项目中提供的帮助以及对论文的评论。我们还要感谢Colmar Brunton的工作人员,特别是Leilani Liew,感谢他们对问卷的微调和实施提供的帮助。我们感谢达尼丁、惠灵顿和奥克兰的焦点小组成员,包括Atene Andrews和Petone的Hikoikoi Kaumātua小组,花时间与我们讨论他们的观点。最后,我们要感谢奥塔哥大学、奥克兰大学和西方国际经济学会议的与会者和讨论者,特别感谢Motu的Arthur Grimes。我们还要感谢Matt Benge、Norman Gemmell、Nicola Kirkup、David Law、Trinh Le和Jacques Poot提出的有益意见和建议。该项目得到了惠灵顿的新西兰财政部和奥克兰的财政能力委员会的财政支持。议程,2019年第26卷第1号24提高资格年龄。结果表明,多标准决策分析在帮助决策者制定符合人们偏好的政策方面具有相当大的潜力。
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引用次数: 2
Has Sub-centre Policy Produced Sub-centres? An Evaluation of Melbourne’s Urban Spatial Planning since 1996 副中心政策是否产生了副中心?1996年以来墨尔本城市空间规划评价
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2018-05-22 DOI: 10.22459/ag.25.01.2018.01
Jennifer Day, W. Han, A. Wu, Jiarui Zheng
This study evaluates Melbourne’s longstanding ‘activity centres’ (AC) policies—the first study to do so. It strongly suggests that, across the Melbourne metropolitan area, AC policies have had no effect on the propensity of people to work near their homes. The findings are robust to a number of validity hazards. The study does not warrant a wholesale abandonment of AC planning, but does signal that we may wish to question how we are currently going about transforming ‘places’ into ‘centres’. For AC policies to be successful, designation as a ‘centre’ may be necessary, but is not sufficient.
这项研究评估了墨尔本长期以来的“活动中心”(AC)政策——这是第一个这样做的研究。它强烈表明,在整个墨尔本大都市区,空调政策对人们在家附近工作的倾向没有影响。这些发现对于许多效度危害都是可靠的。这项研究并不能保证全面放弃空调规划,但它确实表明,我们可能希望质疑我们目前是如何将“地方”转变为“中心”的。AC政策要想成功,被指定为“中心”可能是必要的,但这还不够。
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引用次数: 2
How Much Have Chinese Investors Invested in Australia 中国投资者在澳大利亚投资了多少
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.25.01.2018.03
Kerry Liu
Chinese outward direct investment (ODI) in Australia has been debated for many years. Different data sources provide quite different indications of how much Chinese investors have actually invested in Australia. This study analyses each data source’s application and limitations, and provides some guidelines on how to interpret and use these data. The findings include: first, although the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Chinese official data measure direct Chinese ODI in Australia, the real value of Chinese capital flow into Australia is greater than these measures. Second, KPMG/University of Sydney and American Enterprise Institute/Heritage Fund data measure contracted value, which may be expected to be higher than the true value of capital flow given the uncertainty of the business environment. Third, as Foreign Investment Review Board data is the value of proposed investment, using this data to measure Chinese ODI in Australia is misleading.
中国在澳大利亚的对外直接投资(ODI)已经争论多年。关于中国投资者在澳大利亚的实际投资规模,不同的数据来源提供了截然不同的数据。本研究分析了每个数据源的应用和限制,并提供了一些如何解释和使用这些数据的指导方针。研究结果包括:首先,尽管澳大利亚统计局和中国官方数据衡量的是中国在澳大利亚的直接对外直接投资,但中国资本流入澳大利亚的实际价值大于这些衡量标准。其次,KPMG/University of Sydney和American Enterprise Institute/Heritage Fund的数据衡量的是签约价值,考虑到商业环境的不确定性,签约价值可能会高于资本流动的真实价值。第三,由于外国投资审查委员会的数据是拟议投资的价值,用这些数据来衡量中国在澳大利亚的直接投资是误导的。
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引用次数: 1
Ethics in Economics 经济学伦理
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.25.01.2018.04
Gigi Foster
This paper presents a slightly modified version of a speech given to the Economic Society of Australia’s ACT branch in Canberra in November 2017, as a keynote address at the organisation’s annual general meeting. It considers the relationship between economics as a science, and ethical principles both as they guide the actions of practising economists and as they arise in the surrounding social and political context in which economists ply
本文是对2017年11月在堪培拉澳大利亚经济学会(Economic Society of Australia) ACT分会发表的演讲进行略微修改后的版本,作为该组织年度大会的主题演讲。它考虑了经济学作为一门科学和道德原则之间的关系,因为它们指导实践经济学家的行为,因为它们出现在经济学家所从事的周围社会和政治背景中
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引用次数: 0
The Impact on Research Quality of Performance-Based Funding: The Case of New Zealand's PBRF Scheme 绩效资助对研究质量的影响:以新西兰PBRF计划为例
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.25.01.2018.02
R. Buckle, J. Creedy
This paper discusses the impact on research quality of New Zealand universities of the Performance-Based Research Fund from 2003 to 2012. This is a peer-review process involving assessment of individual researchers. The contribution to improvement in research quality of transitions among research quality categories and entrants and exits of individuals are identified. A substantial component of change has been the removal of non-research active staff. There has been population ageing due to retention of older and higher-quality researchers and a large reduction in the number of younger researchers. Significant differences among universities are evident in the patterns of transformation. The paper also critically considers the PBRF assessment process and characteristics of the metrics used, suggesting scope for improvement in the assessment of researchers and the way in which universities are ranked.
本文探讨了2003 - 2012年绩效研究基金对新西兰大学科研质量的影响。这是一个同行评审的过程,涉及对个别研究人员的评估。确定了研究质量类别和个人进入和退出对研究质量提高的贡献。变化的一个重要组成部分是取消非研究工作人员。由于年长和高质量的研究人员的保留和年轻研究人员数量的大量减少,人口老龄化已经出现。高校在转型方式上存在显著差异。本文还批判性地考虑了PBRF评估过程和所使用指标的特征,提出了对研究人员的评估和大学排名方式的改进空间。
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引用次数: 6
Ricardian Equivalence, the Italian Fiscal Tradition and Western Australia’s Government Net Debt 李嘉图等价、意大利财政传统与西澳大利亚政府净债务
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.24.01.2017.01
M. McLure
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引用次数: 1
Log Rolling as an Explanation of Distortions All Round: A Model à la Buchanan and Tullock 原木滚动作为对全面扭曲的解释:一个模型(布坎南和塔洛克)
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.24.01.2017.03
W. Coleman
Since at least the time of Adam Smith, economists have been alive to the vision of a relatively small number of ‘special interests’ benefiting themselves at the expense of the public weal. But distortions are today so endemic, it is tempting to say that every interest manages to secure that status of special interest, and receives some ‘distortion’ in its favour. But, however credible this scenario of ‘universal distortions’ may be, can it be provided a rigorous and well‐articulated modelling in terms of maximising choices, under a specified institutional structure? Can Public Choice suggest such a modelling? Can, in particular, the Public Choice theorising of ‘log rolling’ do so?
至少从亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)时代开始,经济学家就一直注意到,相对少数的“特殊利益集团”会以牺牲公众福利为代价为自己谋利。但如今扭曲是如此普遍,以至于人们很容易说,每一种利益都设法确保了这种特殊利益的地位,并得到了一些有利于自己的“扭曲”。但是,无论这种“普遍扭曲”的情景多么可信,在特定的制度结构下,它能否提供一个关于最大化选择的严格而清晰的模型?“公共选择”能提出这样一个模型吗?特别是,“滚动原木”的公共选择理论能做到这一点吗?
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引用次数: 0
The growth of knowledge as grounds against paternalism 知识的增长是反对家长作风的基础
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.24.01.2017.04
Greg Clydesdale
This paper considers the significance of the growth of knowledge for the efficacy of paternalistic intervention. Three cases are examined. The first is government intervention in the consumption of fatty food. Second is the evolution of knowledge that occurred after a law mandated the use of cycle helmets. The third examines information flows that characterised the smoking debate. This paper argues that although knowledge continues to evolve, inertia, path dependency and expert bias can impede the removal of paternalistic laws that do not raise welfare but continue to restrict individual agency.
本文考虑了知识增长对家长式干预效果的重要性。研究了三个案例。首先是政府干预高脂肪食品的消费。其次是法律规定使用自行车头盔后知识的进化。第三部分考察了以吸烟辩论为特征的信息流。本文认为,尽管知识在不断发展,但惯性、路径依赖和专家偏见可能会阻碍消除家长式法律,这些法律不会提高福利,但会继续限制个人代理。
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引用次数: 0
The lack of competition in governance as an impediment to regional development in Australia 治理缺乏竞争是澳大利亚区域发展的障碍
IF 0.1 Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.22459/AG.24.01.2017.02
Brad R. Taylor
Regional Australia faces many and diverse challenges and opportunities. Given that one-size-fits-all policy solutions are not appropriate for these diverse conditions, I argue that increasing interjurisdictional competition can foster regional development and resilience. If individuals and businesses are able to ‘vote with their feet’ for the local jurisdictions they prefer, market-like incentives are brought to bear on government. This would limit government power, enable lower-risk policy experimentation, make government more responsive to citizen needs and allow for policy more suited to local circumstances.
澳大利亚地区面临着许多不同的挑战和机遇。鉴于一刀切的政策解决方案并不适合这些不同的条件,我认为,增加司法管辖区之间的竞争可以促进区域发展和恢复力。如果个人和企业能够“用脚投票”选择他们喜欢的地方司法管辖区,那么类似市场的激励措施就会对政府产生影响。这将限制政府权力,使低风险的政策实验成为可能,使政府更能响应公民的需求,并允许制定更适合当地情况的政策。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
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