Pub Date : 2012-04-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.01
H. Ergas
In a classic discussion of mathematical models in the social sciences, the philosopher Max Black describes models as metaphors, raising the fundamental, and long-debated, question of in what sense (if any) a metaphor can be 'true' or 'false' (Black 1962). Perhaps the most sensible answer to that question is by Clarke and Primo (2012), who view models in the social sciences as similar to maps - abstractions that describe relationships between entities in a defined space. As with maps, models are to be evaluated not by their inherent resemblance (or lack of it) to 'the original field of thought', but by their fitness for purpose: whether they help us get where we want to go.
{"title":"For a charter of modelling honesty","authors":"H. Ergas","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.01","url":null,"abstract":"In a classic discussion of mathematical models in the social sciences, the philosopher Max Black describes models as metaphors, raising the fundamental, and long-debated, question of in what sense (if any) a metaphor can be 'true' or 'false' (Black 1962). Perhaps the most sensible answer to that question is by Clarke and Primo (2012), who view models in the social sciences as similar to maps - abstractions that describe relationships between entities in a defined space. As with maps, models are to be evaluated not by their inherent resemblance (or lack of it) to 'the original field of thought', but by their fitness for purpose: whether they help us get where we want to go.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"38 1","pages":"5-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81397770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-04-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.05
S. Davidson
The last decade has seen Treasury make large forecast errors when forecasting company tax receipts. This paper demonstrates the source of those errors: Treasury does not model the actual company tax base but rather estimates growth rates for aggregate measures and then makes ad hoc adjustments to Gross Operating Surplus to estimate taxable income. The consequence of this forecasting strategy is that Treasury does not have a detailed understanding of the company income tax.
{"title":"Treasury forecasts of company tax revenue: back of the envelope or back to the drawing board?","authors":"S. Davidson","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.05","url":null,"abstract":"The last decade has seen Treasury make large forecast errors when forecasting company tax receipts. This paper demonstrates the source of those errors: Treasury does not model the actual company tax base but rather estimates growth rates for aggregate measures and then makes ad hoc adjustments to Gross Operating Surplus to estimate taxable income. The consequence of this forecasting strategy is that Treasury does not have a detailed understanding of the company income tax.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"148 1","pages":"53-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75959484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-04-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.07
Kevin Morgan
Are there projects of such self-evident value that they ought to be exempt from even the most rudimentary cost-benefit analysis? Seemingly so, according to the former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, as long as it's the National Broadband Network (NBN). In May 2009, a month after Kevin Rudd had announced the $43 billion project, when asked about the absence of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA), Tanner said: 'We had to make the clear decision that said this is the outcome we are going to achieve come hell or high water because it is of fundamental importance to the future of the Australian economy' (quoted in Martin 2010).
{"title":"Australia's NBN: Come Hell or High Water","authors":"Kevin Morgan","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.07","url":null,"abstract":"Are there projects of such self-evident value that they ought to be exempt from even the most rudimentary cost-benefit analysis? Seemingly so, according to the former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, as long as it's the National Broadband Network (NBN). In May 2009, a month after Kevin Rudd had announced the $43 billion project, when asked about the absence of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA), Tanner said: 'We had to make the clear decision that said this is the outcome we are going to achieve come hell or high water because it is of fundamental importance to the future of the Australian economy' (quoted in Martin 2010).","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"20 1","pages":"69-76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75656972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-04-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.10
S. Grenville
Just about all economists agree that international trade in goods and services is beneficial and should be unrestricted. There is much less unanimity, however, on the benefits of international capital flows. The volatility and 'sudden stops' experienced over recent decades, especially in emerging economies, have provoked some rethinking. It is argued here that this re-think has much further to go before the analytical discussion fits the reality of capital-flow behaviour and policy comes to grips with the challenge of living with capricious capital flows. Flows to East Asian emerging economies illustrate the argument.
{"title":"Taming Volatile Capital Flows in Emerging Economies","authors":"S. Grenville","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.02.2012.10","url":null,"abstract":"Just about all economists agree that international trade in goods and services is beneficial and should be unrestricted. There is much less unanimity, however, on the benefits of international capital flows. The volatility and 'sudden stops' experienced over recent decades, especially in emerging economies, have provoked some rethinking. It is argued here that this re-think has much further to go before the analytical discussion fits the reality of capital-flow behaviour and policy comes to grips with the challenge of living with capricious capital flows. Flows to East Asian emerging economies illustrate the argument.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"83 1","pages":"107-122"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74484577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-01-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.04
H. Ergas
The Australian Defence Force is held in high regard; the Department of Defence is not. Longstanding concerns about inefficiency, compounded by a succession of fiascos and bungles, have entrenched the perception that Defence is poorly managed. Earlier attempts at reform have yielded mixed, often disappointing, results (see Ergas and Thomson 2011), and the years since 2009 have seen a series of reviews aimed at improving performance, culminating in 22 defence-related reviews in 2011-12 alone.
{"title":"Australia's defence: A review of the 'reviews'","authors":"H. Ergas","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.04","url":null,"abstract":"The Australian Defence Force is held in high regard; the Department of Defence is not. Longstanding concerns about inefficiency, compounded by a succession of fiascos and bungles, have entrenched the perception that Defence is poorly managed. Earlier attempts at reform have yielded mixed, often disappointing, results (see Ergas and Thomson 2011), and the years since 2009 have seen a series of reviews aimed at improving performance, culminating in 22 defence-related reviews in 2011-12 alone.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"45 1","pages":"63-74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79288986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Keynes Hayek. the Clash That Defined Modern Economics","authors":"S. Cornish","doi":"10.1057/9781137328564_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137328564_5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"1 1","pages":"75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86542705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-01-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.03
G. Johns
Despite public interest and public inquiries as long ago as the 1989 Human Rights Commission and the consequent increase in funding by the Hawke and subsequent governments, the 2006 rate of homelessness in Australia was 32 per 10 000, only marginally better than the 34.8 per 10 000 of 2001. This article explores the reasons for the apparent failure to fulfil past promises and the weaknesses in current strategy. It argues for an explicit policy framework containing the assumption that there is an irreducible level of homelessness, and that there should be an assessment of the cost-effectiveness, probability of success and timeliness of each known remedy, in order to achieve the irreducible level.
{"title":"Paved with good intentions: The road home and the irreducible minimum of homelessness in Australia","authors":"G. Johns","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.03","url":null,"abstract":"Despite public interest and public inquiries as long ago as the 1989 Human Rights Commission and the consequent increase in funding by the Hawke and subsequent governments, the 2006 rate of homelessness in Australia was 32 per 10 000, only marginally better than the 34.8 per 10 000 of 2001. This article explores the reasons for the apparent failure to fulfil past promises and the weaknesses in current strategy. It argues for an explicit policy framework containing the assumption that there is an irreducible level of homelessness, and that there should be an assessment of the cost-effectiveness, probability of success and timeliness of each known remedy, in order to achieve the irreducible level.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"12 1","pages":"41-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88988496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-01-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.02
John D. Tressler, David L. Anderson
The paper explores the merits of utilising citation counts to measure research output in economics in the context of a nationwide research evaluation scheme: the New Zealand Performance-Based Research Fund (PBRF). Citations were collected for all refereed papers produced by New Zealand's academic economists over the period 2000 to 2008, and used to estimate the time-lags in between publication and the flow of citations; to demonstrate the impact of alternative definitions of 'economics-relevant' journals on citation counts; and to assess the impact of citation measures on departmental and individual performance. We conclude that under certain scenarios around 60 per cent of papers received no citations over the period. Our findings suggest that the time-lags between publication and citation make it difficult to rely on citation counts to produce a meaningful measure of output in a PBRF-like research-evaluation framework, especially one based on the assessment of individual academics.
{"title":"Citations as a measure of the research outputs of New Zealand's economics departments: The problem of 'long and variable lags'","authors":"John D. Tressler, David L. Anderson","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.02","url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores the merits of utilising citation counts to measure research output in economics in the context of a nationwide research evaluation scheme: the New Zealand Performance-Based Research Fund (PBRF). Citations were collected for all refereed papers produced by New Zealand's academic economists over the period 2000 to 2008, and used to estimate the time-lags in between publication and the flow of citations; to demonstrate the impact of alternative definitions of 'economics-relevant' journals on citation counts; and to assess the impact of citation measures on departmental and individual performance. We conclude that under certain scenarios around 60 per cent of papers received no citations over the period. Our findings suggest that the time-lags between publication and citation make it difficult to rely on citation counts to produce a meaningful measure of output in a PBRF-like research-evaluation framework, especially one based on the assessment of individual academics.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"51 1","pages":"17-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90837372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-01-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.01
Hugh Green
This paper reviews the effectiveness of the reforms to the Australian ATM of early 2009. Data indicate that consumers have acted on the more transparent display of fees by shifting their transactions towards fee-free ATMs provided by their own financial institution, thereby reducing the fees they pay, at the cost of added travel costs. But although consumer surplus has increased, the overall result has been a less-efficient use of the ATM network: banks have lost the whole fall in fee revenue, while consumers have gained only the fee saving, less the extra travel costs. Further, the promise of lower fees did not eventuate, and there was no significant increase in availability of ATMs. Nonetheless, the reforms have been hailed as a success because of the increased pricing transparency in the market. This paper questions the worth of increased transparency when prices are inefficient and welfare loss is the consequence.
{"title":"Australia's 2009 ATM reforms: Transparency for transparency's sake","authors":"Hugh Green","doi":"10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.19.01.2012.01","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the effectiveness of the reforms to the Australian ATM of early 2009. Data indicate that consumers have acted on the more transparent display of fees by shifting their transactions towards fee-free ATMs provided by their own financial institution, thereby reducing the fees they pay, at the cost of added travel costs. But although consumer surplus has increased, the overall result has been a less-efficient use of the ATM network: banks have lost the whole fall in fee revenue, while consumers have gained only the fee saving, less the extra travel costs. Further, the promise of lower fees did not eventuate, and there was no significant increase in availability of ATMs. Nonetheless, the reforms have been hailed as a success because of the increased pricing transparency in the market. This paper questions the worth of increased transparency when prices are inefficient and welfare loss is the consequence.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"57 1","pages":"5-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79812617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-12-01DOI: 10.22459/AG.18.03.2011.01
H. Bloch, N. Wills-Johnson
On 2nd December 2009, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced its intention to oppose the acquisition of Mobil's Australian retail assets by Caltex, based in part on an assessment of the adverse competition effects in some local markets. The proposed merger was subsequently abandoned. The ACCC assessment was based on a standard structural measure of competition, the proportion of petrol stations within each local market that would become controlled by Caltex following such a merger. This paper applies an alternative concept of competition based on the position of each station within a network. Application of the alternative concept to the Perth market, which was excluded from the ACCC analysis, suggests a greater anti-competitive effect from the Caltex-Mobil merger than indicated by application of the standard structural measure of competition.
{"title":"Appraising the ACCC's Caltex-Mobil decision: An alternative measure of competition based on networks","authors":"H. Bloch, N. Wills-Johnson","doi":"10.22459/AG.18.03.2011.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.18.03.2011.01","url":null,"abstract":"On 2nd December 2009, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced its intention to oppose the acquisition of Mobil's Australian retail assets by Caltex, based in part on an assessment of the adverse competition effects in some local markets. The proposed merger was subsequently abandoned. The ACCC assessment was based on a standard structural measure of competition, the proportion of petrol stations within each local market that would become controlled by Caltex following such a merger. This paper applies an alternative concept of competition based on the position of each station within a network. Application of the alternative concept to the Perth market, which was excluded from the ACCC analysis, suggests a greater anti-competitive effect from the Caltex-Mobil merger than indicated by application of the standard structural measure of competition.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"11 1","pages":"5-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74970826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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