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Late to the Game? Capital Flows to the Western Balkans 迟到了?资本流向西巴尔干
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-04-07 DOI: 10.5089/9781475593501.001
Z. Kóczán
The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
流入欧洲联盟新成员国的资本的盛衰受到了相当多的关注;外国直接投资和银行流入该地区以及各国参与区域供应链的情况有据可查。然而,关于资本流向西巴尔干经济体的文章相对较少,这些经济体通常被认为是大规模资本流动的“后来者”。本文旨在研究流入西巴尔干的资本与流入新成员国的资本在水平和动态方面的比较。我们发现,虽然西巴尔干地区的金融一体化起步比新成员国晚一些,但它增长迅速,尽管资本账户开放程度仍然低得多。资本流入占国内总产值的比例与新会员国所观察到的相当,(也许令人惊讶的是)在来源国方面各不相同,在组成上大致相似,尽管在人均国内总产值的可比水平上,资本流入的股本比例高于新会员国。
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引用次数: 2
Cross-Country Entrepreneurial Intentions Study: The Danube Region Perspective 跨国创业意向研究:多瑙河地区视角
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-12-23 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.2.2
Urban Sebjan, P. Tominc, Darja Boršič
In this article, we investigate how entrepreneurial intentions of individuals in the eight countries of the Danube region are shaped by different components of individuals’ personal attitudes, the subjective norm and personal behavioral control. We analyze the internal structure of these components as well as some demographic and human capital factors. Cultural and developmental differences influencing variation in causal effects among variables in the model are analyzed. Structural equation modeling is used for data obtained by adult population surveys within the GEM research. Results of our study show that the entrepreneurial intention model is applicable across countries and that the internal effects among components of motivational antecedents exist, although not all hypothesized relationships are confirmed. Our study suggests that the process from perception to intention is similarly shaped across the eight countries of the Danube region, although there are several differences in the magnitude of causal effects as well as differences regarding influential factors.
本文研究了多瑙河地区8个国家的个人创业意向是如何受到个人态度、主观规范和个人行为控制等不同因素的影响的。我们分析了这些组成部分的内部结构以及一些人口和人力资本因素。文化和发展差异对模型中变量间因果效应的影响进行了分析。结构方程模型用于GEM研究中成人人口调查获得的数据。研究结果表明,创业意向模型在全球范围内都是适用的,动机前因的内部效应是存在的,但并非所有的假设关系都得到了证实。我们的研究表明,从感知到意图的过程在多瑙河地区的八个国家中是相似的,尽管在因果效应的大小以及影响因素方面存在一些差异。
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引用次数: 15
Cost Accounting as a Possible Solution for Financial Sustainability of Croatian Public Hospitals 成本会计作为克罗地亚公立医院财务可持续性的可能解决方案
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-12-23 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.2.1
I. Lutilsky, Berislav Žmuk, Martina Dragija
The purpose of this paper is to present the current usage of cost accounting methodology in Croatian public hospitals through conducted empirical research and to provide opinions of accountants and financial officers regarding possible implementation of cost accounting methodology in public hospitals. In the paper, the authors analyze the accounting system in Croatian public hospitals, identifying the flaws of the current accounting system with regard to the recording and allocation of costs. National healthcare systems of different European countries provide a theoretical background for the usage of accrual accounting basis and cost accounting methodologies, showing better governance and financial sustainability of public hospitals which have introduced cost accounting methodology. The conducted empirical research shows that accountants and financial officers believe that the healthcare system in Croatia is ready for a change in the current accounting system based on the modified accrual basis through the implementation of accrual accounting basis and full costing approach to cost allocation. Full costing approach is also known as activity-based accounting method for cost allocation. The authors also recommend some initial steps for implementation of the new cost accounting system in Croatian public hospitals.
本文的目的是通过进行实证研究,介绍克罗地亚公立医院成本会计方法的当前使用情况,并就公立医院可能实施的成本会计方法提供会计师和财务人员的意见。在本文中,作者分析了克罗地亚公立医院的会计制度,指出了现行会计制度在成本记录和分配方面的缺陷。不同欧洲国家的国家医疗保健系统为权责发生制会计基础和成本会计方法的使用提供了理论背景,显示了引入成本会计方法的公立医院更好的治理和财务可持续性。所进行的实证研究表明,会计师和财务官员认为,克罗地亚的医疗保健系统已经准备好改变现行的会计制度,基于修改权责发生制,通过实施权责发生制会计基础和完全成本核算法的成本分配。完全成本核算法也被称为基于作业的成本分配会计方法。作者还建议在克罗地亚公立医院实施新的成本会计制度的一些初步步骤。
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引用次数: 4
Is Creative Economy in Croatia a Myth or Reality? Some Evidence on the Impact of Creativity on Regional Economic Growth 克罗地亚的创意经济是神话还是现实?创新对区域经济增长影响的若干证据
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-12-23 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.2.4
N. Stojčić, K. Bačić, Zoran Aralica
The objective of this paper is to explore the intraregional and interregional relationships between employment of creative individuals in creative industries and the economic growth of Croatian regions. Spatial panel analysis is applied to assess the interregional effects of regional growth as well as interregional and intraregional effects of cultural and creative industries on economic growth in 2006–2012. While there is empirical evidence of positive interregional economic growth effects, the contribution of the creative potential to the growth of Croatian regions is found to be negative. These findings can be explained by overall modest representation of creative industries, particularly in faster growing regions, and the growth impediments imposed on creative industries by Croatian producers that mostly compete in standardized price competitive segments of the market.
本文的目的是探讨创意产业中创意个人的就业与克罗地亚地区经济增长之间的区域内和区域间关系。运用空间面板分析方法,对2006-2012年区域增长的区域间效应以及文化创意产业对经济增长的区域间和区域内效应进行了评价。虽然有经验证据表明区域间经济增长的积极影响,但发现创造潜力对克罗地亚区域增长的贡献是消极的。这些发现可以解释为创意产业的总体代表性不足,特别是在增长较快的地区,以及克罗地亚生产商对创意产业的增长障碍,这些生产商主要在标准化的价格竞争市场中竞争。
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引用次数: 5
Determinants of Capital Integration among Strategic Alliance Members in the Retail Sector: Evidence from Central and Southeast European Countries 零售业战略联盟成员间资本整合的决定因素:来自中欧和东南欧国家的证据
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-12-23 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.2.3
N. Butigan, Đ. Benić
Survival of firms requires continuous search for new and a restructuring of the existing competitive advantages. These can come either from firms’ internal factors or from cooperation with the environment. Cooperation among firms commonly takes place through the formation of strategic alliances. However, such form of cooperation presents only one stage in the integration of business entities. In the long run, strategic alliances can cease to exist or transform into a higher form of association based on capital integration. The objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of capital integration among strategic alliance member firms in retail sectors of several Central and Southeast European countries. Overall, the obtained findings suggest that business entities engage in integration with the aim of reaching hidden knowledge and skills, accessing distribution and supply channels, and developing new products and services. Integration is also driven with the aim of risk diversification and possible better market positioning, achieving the economies of scale, and improving organization and marketing. The opportunistic behavior of partners and limited managerial control represent its strongest barriers.
企业的生存需要不断寻找新的和重组现有的竞争优势。这些可能来自企业的内部因素,也可能来自与环境的合作。企业之间的合作通常是通过形成战略联盟来实现的。然而,这种形式的合作只是企业实体整合的一个阶段。从长远来看,战略联盟可以不复存在,也可以转变为基于资本整合的更高形式的联盟。本文的目的是探讨几个中欧和东南欧国家零售部门战略联盟成员公司之间资本整合的决定因素。总体而言,所获得的研究结果表明,企业实体从事整合的目的是获取隐藏的知识和技能,获取分销和供应渠道,以及开发新产品和服务。整合也是为了分散风险和更好的市场定位,实现规模经济,改善组织和营销。合伙人的机会主义行为和有限的管理控制是其最大的障碍。
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引用次数: 1
Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Fiscal Adjustment Programs and Lessons for Croatia 希腊主权债务危机:原因、财政调整计划和克罗地亚的教训
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.3
Mislav Brkić
This paper investigates the factors that have led to the Greek sovereign debt crisis in order to derive policy lessons for Croatia and other highly indebted countries. In the first years after euro adoption, it seemed that membership in the monetary union facilitated a catching-up process for Greece, given that it enjoyed high growth rates and a rapid convergence of per capita income. However, the global crisis has revealed that the previous economic expansion was an unsustainable process based on excessive inflow of debt-creating foreign capital. In this paper, it is argued that the government sector contributed the most to the rising vulnerability of the Greek economy. Data are presented showing that extensive government borrowing was the main factor behind the rapid accumulation of Greece's external debt, which made it highly vulnerable to external shocks. Besides the procyclical fiscal policy, some other factors also contributed to the overheating of economic activity in Greece. Hence, this paper reviews the literature that deals with the compression of peripheral countries' sovereign bond yields after the creation of the monetary union, the doubtful suitability of the ECB's expansionary policy stance from the perspective of then booming peripheral states, and the institutional shortcomings of the EMU. The main motivation of this paper is to identify the key roots of the Greek debt crisis in order to derive lessons for policy-makers in Croatia. Since the beginning of the recession in 2008, Croatia has seen a significant deterioration in fiscal fundamentals, with high public debt becoming the main source of macroeconomic vulnerability. Reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio has emerged as a key policy challenge that needs to be addressed in order to reduce the likelihood of a debt crisis.
本文调查了导致希腊主权债务危机的因素,以便为克罗地亚和其他高负债国家提供政策教训。在采用欧元后的头几年,鉴于希腊享有高增长率和人均收入的快速趋同,加入货币联盟似乎促进了希腊的追赶进程。然而,全球危机表明,以前的经济扩张是一个不可持续的过程,其基础是产生债务的外国资本的过度流入。本文认为,政府部门对希腊经济的脆弱性上升贡献最大。数据显示,大量的政府借款是希腊外债迅速积累背后的主要因素,这使得希腊极易受到外部冲击的影响。除了顺周期的财政政策,其他一些因素也导致了希腊经济活动的过热。因此,本文回顾了有关货币联盟成立后外围国家主权债券收益率压缩的文献,从当时繁荣的外围国家的角度来看,欧洲央行扩张性政策立场的可疑适用性,以及欧洲货币联盟的制度缺陷。本文的主要动机是确定希腊债务危机的关键根源,以便为克罗地亚的政策制定者提供经验教训。自2008年经济衰退开始以来,克罗地亚的财政基本面显著恶化,高额公共债务成为宏观经济脆弱性的主要来源。降低债务与国内生产总值的比率已成为一项需要解决的关键政策挑战,以减少债务危机的可能性。
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引用次数: 3
Palgrave Dictionary of Emerging Markets and Transition Economics: Insights from Archival Research, Jens Hölscher and Horst Tomann, eds., Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016, pp. XX + 589, ISBN 978-1-137-37137-9 新兴市场和转型经济学帕尔格雷夫词典:从档案研究的见解,延斯Hölscher和霍斯特·托曼,编辑。,贝辛斯托克:Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016, pp. XX + 589, ISBN 978-1-137-37137-9
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.5
B. Cerović
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引用次数: 5
Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions 马其顿的贷款供应冲击:一个带有符号限制的贝叶斯SVAR方法
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.1
Rilind Kabashi, Katerina Suleva
This paper analyses the effects of loan supply, as well as aggregate demand, aggregate supply and monetary policy shocks between 1998 and 2014 in Macedonia using a structural Vector Auto Regression with sign restrictions and Bayesian estimation. The main results indicate that loan supply shocks have no significant effect on loan volumes and lending rates, as well as on economic activity and prices. The effects of monetary policy on lending activity are fairly limited, although there is some evidence that it affects lending rates more than loan volumes. Monetary policy shocks have strong effects on inflation, while the central bank reacts strongly to adverse shocks hitting the economy. Baseline results are fairly robust to several extensions and robustness checks. According to historical decomposition, the lending activity was supporting economic growth before and during the crisis, but its contribution became negative during the recovery and it was a drag on growth until the end of the period. Pre-crisis GDP growth is mostly explained by the supportive interest rate of the main monetary policy instrument. However, the restrictive policy during the crisis for the purposes of maintaining monetary policy goals was associated with a fall in GDP, while the policy became supportive again during the early stages of the recovery. Policy rates in the recent years mostly reflect subdued lending activity and aggregate supply factors, which the central bank tries to counteract with a more accommodative policy.
本文利用带符号限制和贝叶斯估计的结构向量自回归分析了马其顿1998年至2014年间贷款供给、总需求、总供给和货币政策冲击的影响。主要结果表明,贷款供应冲击对贷款额和贷款利率以及经济活动和价格没有显著影响。货币政策对贷款活动的影响相当有限,尽管有一些证据表明,货币政策对贷款利率的影响大于对贷款额的影响。货币政策冲击对通胀有强烈影响,而央行对冲击经济的不利冲击反应强烈。基线结果对于一些扩展和健壮性检查是相当健壮的。根据历史分解,贷款活动在危机前和危机期间支持经济增长,但在经济复苏期间,贷款活动的贡献变为负值,直到危机结束前都是经济增长的拖累。危机前的GDP增长主要由主要货币政策工具的支持性利率来解释。然而,危机期间为维持货币政策目标而采取的限制性政策与国内生产总值的下降有关,而在复苏的早期阶段,该政策再次成为支持性政策。近年来的政策利率主要反映了贷款活动和总供给因素的低迷,央行试图用更宽松的政策来抵消这些因素。
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引用次数: 5
Youth and the Crisis: Unemployment, Education and Health in Europe, Gianluigi Coppola and Niall O’Higgins, eds., Abingdon: Routledge, 2016, pp. XIII + 293, ISBN 978-1138897779 《青年与危机:欧洲的失业、教育和健康》,詹路易吉·科波拉和尼尔·奥希金斯编。,阿宾登:劳特利奇出版社,2016年,第XIII + 293页,ISBN 978-1138897779
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.6
K. Roberts
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引用次数: 0
Human Capital as a Binding Constraint to Economic Growth: The Case of Macedonia 人力资本对经济增长的约束:以马其顿为例
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.2
D. Lazarov, Goce Petreski
The main objective of the paper is to explore the assumption if the lack of skilled and well-educated workforces (human capital) holds a potential of a binding constraint to economic growth of the Macedonian economy. Not neglecting growth econometrics’ insights for the investigation of the relationship between human capital and economic growth, the work is primarily based on a growth diagnostic approach. The empirical techniques used in this paper are: growth accounting decomposition production method; macro and micro assessment of the return rate on investment in human capital; and, comparative benchmark analysis concerns with regard to unemployment distribution according to education and age structure and companies’ perceptions about the quality of workforce. The estimated results indicate an important contribution of human capital to economic growth (its relative contribution in terms of growth rate composition is approximately 22 percent). The macro and micro assessment of the rate of return on investment in human capital shows that the rate of return to higher education is significantly superior to corresponding returns to secondary education. Finally, the international benchmark analysis helps in comparative human capital impact analysis (educational structure of labor force in the wider region). Predominantly, it is based on educational structure, unemployment distribution and the companies’ perception about the quality of the workforce.
本文的主要目的是探讨假设缺乏熟练和受过良好教育的劳动力(人力资本)持有对马其顿经济的经济增长具有约束力约束的潜力。不要忽视增长计量经济学对人力资本和经济增长之间关系调查的见解,这项工作主要基于增长诊断方法。本文采用的实证技术有:增长核算分解生产法;人力资本投资回报率的宏观和微观评价并且,比较基准分析关注根据教育和年龄结构以及公司对劳动力质量的看法的失业分布。估计结果表明人力资本对经济增长的重要贡献(其在增长率构成方面的相对贡献约为22%)。对人力资本投资回报率的宏观和微观评估表明,高等教育的回报率明显优于中等教育的相应回报率。最后,国际基准分析有助于比较人力资本影响分析(更广泛地区劳动力的教育结构)。主要是基于教育结构、失业分布和公司对劳动力质量的看法。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Croatian Economic Survey
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