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Keynes’s General Theory Seventy-Five Years Later, Thomas Cate, ed., Cheltenham and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2012, pp. 360, ISBN 978-1-84542-411-4 凯恩斯的一般理论75年后,托马斯凯特编辑,切尔滕纳姆和北安普顿,马萨诸塞州:爱德华埃尔加,2012年,第360页,ISBN 978-1-84542-411-4
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15179/CES.18.1.4
I. Vujačić
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引用次数: 0
The Determinants of Return Migration: Evidence for Kosovo 返回移民的决定因素:科索沃的证据
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-31 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.2.2
Ardiana Gashi, N. Adnett
Return migration represents a potentially important contributor to economic development for countries that are large exporters of labor. This paper provides an analysis of the determinants of return migration to Kosovo, a country with an especially high level of recent emigration. The findings of this investigation suggest that there is a non-linear relationship between the age of the migrant and their probability of returning. In addition, the more educated migrants and those that have acquired additional education whilst abroad are more likely to return, whereas recent migrants, those that possess permanent resident status and have their family abroad are less likely to return. As expected, the stronger the family ties of a migrant with their home country, the more likely they are to return. Finally, migrants that are expected to invest in businesses in Kosovo are more inclined to return. Together these findings suggest that return migration may be an important contributor to economic development in Kosovo and policies are outlined that could strengthen this contribution.
对于劳动力输出大国来说,回流移民可能是经济发展的一个重要因素。本文分析了返回科索沃的移民决定因素,科索沃是一个最近移民水平特别高的国家。研究结果表明,农民工的年龄与其返乡概率之间存在非线性关系。此外,受教育程度较高的移民和那些在国外接受过额外教育的移民更有可能返回,而最近的移民,那些拥有永久居民身份并有家人在国外的移民则不太可能返回。不出所料,移民与祖国的家庭关系越紧密,他们回国的可能性就越大。最后,希望在科索沃投资的移民更倾向于返回。综上所述,这些调查结果表明,回返移民可能是科索沃经济发展的一个重要因素,并概述了可以加强这一贡献的政策。
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引用次数: 11
Convergence, Crisis and Unemployment in Europe: The Need for Innovative Policies 欧洲的趋同、危机和失业:创新政策的需要
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-31 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.2.1
E. Marelli, M. Signorelli
The paper reviews the double crisis that affected the euro area in the recent period. The focal point is that the austerity measures that have been undertaken in the area, especially in the peripheral countries hurt by the sovereign debt crisis, have not only caused a deep recession but are likely to lead to stagnation and persistent unemployment. In the first part of the paper, original weaknesses in the construction of the monetary union are examined, the emphasis being placed on nominal convergence criteria without taking into account the need for real convergence. This analysis is corroborated by some econometric investigations based on sigma and beta convergence for different macroeconomic variables, distinguishing between the pre-crisis period, 1999-2007, and the recent 2008-2013 period. The empirical section continues with a discussion of recent macroeconomic trends focusing on unemployment: it stresses that the deep and prolonged recession can be defeated only by adequate demand management policies. The next section explains how the excessive austerity policies recently carried out have also been caused by wrong assumptions about the size of the fiscal multipliers. The final policy section emphasizes three aspects: (i) the radical reforms, at the European level, necessary if the monetary union is to survive; (ii) the changes in macroeconomic policies required to put an end to the present stagnation; (iii) the different and innovative policies needed to fight the high level of unemployment (especially youth unemployment).
本文回顾了近年来影响欧元区的双重危机。问题的焦点在于,欧元区(尤其是受主权债务危机影响的外围国家)所采取的紧缩措施,不仅造成了深度衰退,而且可能导致经济停滞和持续失业。在本文的第一部分中,考察了货币联盟建设中的原始弱点,重点放在名义趋同标准上,而没有考虑到实际趋同的需要。这一分析得到了一些基于不同宏观经济变量的sigma和beta收敛的计量经济学研究的证实,这些研究区分了1999-2007年危机前时期和最近的2008-2013年时期。实证部分继续讨论最近以失业为重点的宏观经济趋势:它强调只有通过适当的需求管理政策才能战胜深度和长期的衰退。下一节将解释,最近实施的过度紧缩政策也是由对财政乘数规模的错误假设造成的。最后的政策部分强调了三个方面:(i)欧洲层面的激进改革,如果货币联盟要生存下去,这是必要的;(ii)为结束目前的停滞而需要改变宏观经济政策;(三)应对高失业率(特别是青年失业)所需的不同和创新政策。
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引用次数: 16
What Determines the Incidence and Size of Remittances: Evidence for Kosovo 是什么决定了汇款的发生率和规模:科索沃的证据
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-31 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.2.3
Avdullah Hoti
Kosovo ranks highly both with regard to the rate of emigration of the labor force and the level of remittances to GDP. Given poor employment prospects in Kosovo, from an individual point of view emigration might be a strategy of escaping unemployment and contributing toward household incomes. In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the incidence and size of remittances among Kosovo’s emigrants. We provide unique evidence that helps to better estimate aggregate spending and remittances in Kosovo. This is the first systematic study of these issues in this post-socialist and post-conflict economy.
科索沃在劳动力移民率和汇款占国内生产总值的比例方面都排名很高。鉴于科索沃就业前景不佳,从个人的角度来看,移徙可能是一种逃避失业和增加家庭收入的战略。在本文中,我们调查了科索沃移民汇款的发生率和规模的决定因素。我们提供了独特的证据,有助于更好地估计科索沃的总支出和汇款。这是对后社会主义和后冲突经济中这些问题的第一次系统研究。
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引用次数: 2
Inequality: What Can Be Done?, Anthony B. Atkinson, Harvard University Press, 2015, 384 pages, ISBN 9780674504769 不平等:我们能做些什么?安东尼·阿特金森,哈佛大学出版社,2015年,384页,ISBN 9780674504769
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-31 DOI: 10.15179/ces.17.2.4
Ivica Rubil
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引用次数: 2
Socio-Economic Determinants of Household Income among Ethnic Minorities in the North-West Mountains, Vietnam 越南西北山区少数民族家庭收入的社会经济决定因素
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.1.5
T. Q. Tuyến
This paper investigates both commune and household determinants of household income among ethnic minorities in the North-West Mountains – the poorest region of Vietnam. The findings show that the vast majority of the sample households heavily depend on agricultural activities. Factors affecting household income per capita are examined using multiple regression models and the findings confirm the important role of education, non-farm employment and fixed assets in improving household income. In addition, some commune variables such as the presence of the means of transportation, post offices and non-farm job opportunities are found to have an increasing impact on household income. The findings suggest that policies for poverty reduction should aim at both commune and household levels. Policies that focus on improving the access of ethnic minorities to education and non-farm employment are expected to be effective ways of enhancing their income.
本文调查了越南最贫穷的西北山区少数民族家庭收入的公社和家庭决定因素。调查结果表明,绝大多数样本家庭严重依赖农业活动。运用多元回归模型考察了影响家庭人均收入的因素,结果证实了教育、非农就业和固定资产在提高家庭收入方面的重要作用。此外,一些公社变量,如交通工具、邮局和非农业工作机会的存在,对家庭收入的影响越来越大。调查结果表明,减少贫困的政策应同时针对社区和家庭两级。着重于改善少数民族受教育机会和非农业就业机会的政策预计将是增加少数民族收入的有效途径。
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引用次数: 29
Building Strong Customer Relationships through Brand Orientation in Small Service Firms: An Empirical Investigation 通过品牌导向在小型服务公司建立强大的客户关系:一项实证调查
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.1.4
M. Chovancová, C. Osakwe, Benson U. Ogbonna
The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between the adoption of a brand orientation strategy and customer relationship performance in a small service firm setting. More specifically, in addition to investigating the direct link between brand orientation and customer relationship performance, we further examine the moderating effects of entrepreneurial orientation and perceived competitive intensity on the empirical link between brand orientation and customer relationship performance. To test the hypothesized relationships in the conceptual framework, 105 usable structured questionnaires were collected from small service firms and the data were further analyzed using a hierarchical, moderated regression analysis. The results affirm the positive link between brand orientation and customer relationship performance. Moreover, entrepreneurial orientation is found to strengthen the brand orientation-customer relationship performance link. However, our results show that competitive intensity does not significantly moderate the brand orientation-customer relationship performance link. Nonetheless, it is highly suggestive that perceived competitive intensity is a direct predictor of customer relationship performance. In terms of the practical significance of the overall research model, the effect size is fairly large (Cohen’s f 2 = 0.33). The research implications and directions for future research are further highlighted in the penultimate section of the paper.
本文的目的是实证检验在小型服务公司设置中采用品牌导向战略与客户关系绩效之间的关系。更具体地说,除了研究品牌导向与客户关系绩效之间的直接联系外,我们还进一步研究了创业导向和感知竞争强度对品牌导向与客户关系绩效之间的实证联系的调节作用。为了检验概念框架中的假设关系,我们从小型服务公司收集了105份可用的结构化问卷,并使用分层、适度回归分析进一步分析数据。结果肯定了品牌导向与客户关系绩效之间的正相关关系。此外,创业导向强化了品牌导向与顾客关系绩效的联系。然而,我们的研究结果显示,竞争强度并没有显著调节品牌导向与客户关系绩效的关系。尽管如此,这是高度暗示,感知竞争强度是客户关系绩效的直接预测因子。就整个研究模型的实际意义而言,效应量相当大(Cohen’s f 2 = 0.33)。在论文的倒数第二部分进一步强调了研究的意义和未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 15
Labor Market Duality and the Impact of Prolonged Recession on Employment in Croatia 劳动力市场的二元性和长期经济衰退对克罗地亚就业的影响
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.1.1
Mislav Brkić
The term labor market duality can be used to describe different forms of labor market segmentation. Nevertheless, this term is most often used to describe the segregation between permanent employees and workers employed on a temporary basis. There is a consensus in the literature that labor market duality most often occurs after governments engage in asymmetric reforms of the labor market legislation, which significantly liberalize the use of temporary contracts, while retaining a high level of employment protection for permanent workers. This paper analyzes whether in Croatia as a country with relatively rigid labor market legislation there are signs of labor market duality. The analysis is motivated by the recent data on employment flows showing that companies have intensified temporary hiring in recent years, which might be considered as a sign of increasing labor market duality. However, this paper discusses labor market developments in the context of persistent recession, taking into account that such changes in the employment flows could be a cyclical phenomenon reflecting high risk aversion of companies.
劳动力市场二元性一词可以用来描述不同形式的劳动力市场分割。然而,这个术语最常用于描述长期雇员和临时雇员之间的隔离。在文献中有一个共识,即劳动力市场的二元性最常发生在政府参与劳动力市场立法的不对称改革之后,这些改革显着放开了临时合同的使用,同时保留了对长期工人的高水平就业保护。本文分析了克罗地亚作为一个劳动力市场立法相对严格的国家是否存在劳动力市场二元性的迹象。最近有关就业流动的数据显示,近年来企业加大了临时招聘力度,这可能被视为劳动力市场二元性加剧的一个迹象。然而,本文在持续衰退的背景下讨论了劳动力市场的发展,考虑到就业流动的这种变化可能是一种反映公司高度风险厌恶的周期性现象。
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引用次数: 7
Factors Influencing the Earnings Expectations among Macedonian Students: A Comparative Perspective with the EU Students 影响马其顿学生收入预期的因素:与欧盟学生的比较视角
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.1.3
Marija Andonova, Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski
The aim of this paper is to assess the earnings expectations of Macedonian students and the main factors that shape their expectations. Previous research has shown that earnings expectation is a major determinant that influences a decision on schooling (Williams and Gordon, 1981; Betts, 1996; Wolter and Zbinden, 2001). Given that the main pathway to developing individual human capital is schooling, learning about factors that affect individual’s decision on whether to acquire more education can contribute towards better educational policy. We employ similar empirical approach as Brunello et al. (2001, 2004). We use available information to regress: i) expected future earnings right after university graduation and ii) expected future earnings 10 years after graduation, on a set of variables: characteristics of the individual, socio-economic background, field of study, year of study, academic performance, sources of information for future earnings, etc. Our findings show that expected earnings are significantly correlated with the education of the father, year of study, sources of information on earnings in the labor market, gender, ethnicity, having a regular job during studies, perceived employability, field of study, and the country of future employment. In other words, Macedonian students form their earnings expectations in a similar vein as their European counterparts.
本文的目的是评估马其顿学生的收入预期和影响他们预期的主要因素。先前的研究表明,收入预期是影响上学决定的主要决定因素(Williams和Gordon, 1981;贝茨1996;Wolter and Zbinden, 2001)。鉴于发展个人人力资本的主要途径是上学,了解影响个人决定是否接受更多教育的因素有助于制定更好的教育政策。我们采用与Brunello等人(2001,2004)相似的实证方法。我们使用现有的信息来回归:i)大学毕业后的预期未来收入和ii)毕业后10年的预期未来收入,基于一系列变量:个人特征、社会经济背景、学习领域、学习年份、学习成绩、未来收入的信息来源等。我们的研究结果表明,预期收入与父亲的教育程度、学习年份、劳动力市场收入信息来源、性别、种族、在学习期间有一份固定工作、感知就业能力、学习领域和未来就业的国家显著相关。换句话说,马其顿学生的收入预期与欧洲学生相似。
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引用次数: 4
Urban IDPs and Poverty: Analysis of the Effect of Mass Forced Displacement on Urban Poverty in Bosnia and Herzegovina 城市境内流离失所者与贫困:波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那大规模被迫流离失所对城市贫困的影响分析
IF 0.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.15179/CES.17.1.2
N. Oruč
This paper analyzes the effect of mass forced displacement on urban poverty in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The process of displacement in Bosnia and Herzegovina involved “forced evictions”, implying no choice in displacement decision, meaning that this type of rural-urban migration was not a rational decision driven by economic motives. Consequently, this can possibly lead to a larger incidence of poverty among displaced people. The paper starts with a discussion of the specific features of the process of forced displacement and their possibly different effect on urban poverty compared to voluntary migration, based on qualitative evidence collected through interviews with people who experienced forced displacement during the conflict in the 1990s. Then, the probit model of determinants of poverty, based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey data, was estimated in order to provide empirical evidence of the effect of mass forced displacement on urban poverty, as well as the difference in the poverty incidence among displaced people compared to voluntary migrants. The results suggest that consumption is significantly lower among displaced households, while incidence of poverty is not affected by displacement status. The evidence also contributes to the migration literature by providing specific results about the relationship between mass forced displacement and urban poverty.
本文分析了大规模被迫流离失所对波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那城市贫困的影响。波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那境内的流离失所过程涉及“强迫驱逐”,这意味着在流离失所的决定中没有选择,这意味着这种从农村到城市的移徙不是由经济动机驱动的理性决定。因此,这可能导致流离失所者中更大的贫困发生率。本文首先讨论了被迫流离失所过程的具体特征,以及与自愿迁移相比,它们对城市贫困可能产生的不同影响,这是基于对20世纪90年代冲突期间经历过被迫流离失所的人进行访谈收集的定性证据。然后,基于生活水平测量调查数据,估计了贫困决定因素的probit模型,以提供大规模被迫流离失所对城市贫困影响的经验证据,以及流离失所者与自愿移民之间贫困发生率的差异。结果表明,流离失所家庭的消费显著降低,而贫困发生率不受流离失所状况的影响。通过提供关于大规模被迫流离失所与城市贫困之间关系的具体结果,这些证据也有助于移民文献。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Croatian Economic Survey
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