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Clustering and Classification in Option Pricing 期权定价中的聚类与分类
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2011-09-30 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v3i2.1458
N. Gradojevic, D. Kukolj, R. Gencay
This paper reviews the recent option pricing literature and investigates how clustering and classification can assist option pricing models. Specifically, we consider non-parametric modular neural network (MNN) models to price the S&P-500 European call options. The focus is on decomposing and classifying options data into a number of sub-models across moneyness and maturity ranges that are processed individually. The fuzzy learning vector quantization (FLVQ) algorithm we propose generates decision regions (i.e., option classes) divided by ‘intelligent’ classification boundaries. Such an approach improves generalization properties of the MNN model and thereby increases its pricing accuracy.
本文回顾了最近的期权定价文献,并研究了聚类和分类如何辅助期权定价模型。具体来说,我们考虑非参数模块化神经网络(MNN)模型来为标准普尔500欧洲看涨期权定价。重点是将期权数据分解并分类为多个跨金钱和期限范围的子模型,这些子模型分别进行处理。我们提出的模糊学习向量量化(FLVQ)算法生成由“智能”分类边界划分的决策区域(即选项类)。这种方法提高了MNN模型的泛化性能,从而提高了其定价精度。
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引用次数: 5
Nonlinear Stochastic Convergence Analysis of Regional Unemployment Rates in Poland 波兰地区失业率的非线性随机收敛分析
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2011-05-01 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v3i1.1377
Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wójcik
This paper analyzes convergence of unemployment rates in Poland at NUTS4 level by testing nonlinear convergence, applying the modied KSS-CHLL for each pair of territorial units. The results suggest that actually the convergence is a rare phenomenon and occurs only in 1916 cases out of potential over 70 000 combinations. This paper inquires what systematic reasons contribute to this phenomenon. There are some circumstances under which unemployment convergence should be more awaited than in the others. These include sharing a higher level territorial authority, experiencing similar labour market hardship or sharing the same structural characteristics. For each of these three criteria we analyse the frequency of the dierential nonstationarity within groups (as evidence of convergence) and across groups (as evidence of "catching up").
本文采用修正的KSS-CHLL对每对领土单位进行非线性收敛检验,分析了波兰失业率在NUTS4水平上的收敛性。结果表明,实际上趋同是一种罕见的现象,在潜在的7万多个组合中只发生在1916个案例中。本文探讨了造成这一现象的系统原因。在某些情况下,人们应该比在其他情况下更期待失业率趋同。这些包括共享更高级别的领土权力,经历类似的劳动力市场困难或共享相同的结构特征。对于这三个标准中的每一个,我们都分析了组内(作为收敛的证据)和组间(作为“追赶”的证据)差异非平稳性的频率。
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引用次数: 12
The Spatial Distribution of Labour Force Participation and Market Earnings at the Sub-National Level in Ireland 爱尔兰次国家层面劳动力参与和市场收入的空间分布
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2011-01-05 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v3i1.1378
Karyn Morrissey, C. O’Donoghue
The main aim of this paper is to provide a spatial modelling framework for labour force participation and income estimation. The development of a household income distribution for Ireland had previously been hampered by the lack of disaggregated data on individual earnings. Spatial microsimulation through a process of calibration provides a method which allows one to recreate the spatial distribution LFP and household market income at the small area level. Further analysis examines the relationship between LFP, occupational type and market income at the small area level in Co. Galway Ireland.
本文的主要目的是为劳动力参与和收入估计提供一个空间建模框架。以前,由于缺乏个人收入的分类数据,爱尔兰家庭收入分配的发展受到阻碍。通过校准过程的空间微观模拟提供了一种方法,使人们能够在小区域水平上重建LFP和家庭市场收入的空间分布。进一步的分析检验了LFP,职业类型和市场收入在爱尔兰高威公司的小区域水平之间的关系。
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引用次数: 22
Firm Corruption in the Presence of an Auditor 审计人员在场时的公司腐败
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-09-01 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v8i2.1511
M. Dietrich, Jolian P Mchardy, Abhijit Sharma
We develop a theoretical framework exploring firm corruption accounting for interactions with an auditor who provides auditing and other services. A multiplicity of equilibria can exist including stable corruption and auditor controlled corruption. Whilst fining the auditor cannot eliminate all corruption, fining the firm can, but marginal increases in this fine can also have perverse effects. Investing in corruption detection may be effective in deterring auditor corruption but ineffective in deterring firm corruption. Policy effectiveness is highly dependent upon several factors which may be hard to observe in practice making general rules about policy interventions to address corruption very difficult.
我们开发了一个理论框架,探索公司腐败会计与提供审计和其他服务的审计师的互动。稳定腐败和审计员控制的腐败可以存在多重均衡。虽然对审计人员进行罚款不能消除所有腐败,但对公司进行罚款可以消除所有腐败,但罚款的边际增加也可能产生不良影响。投资于腐败侦查可能对阻止审计人员腐败有效,但对阻止公司腐败无效。政策有效性高度依赖于几个因素,这些因素在实践中可能很难观察到,因此很难制定有关解决腐败问题的政策干预的一般规则。
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引用次数: 1
Bayesian Methods for Completing Data in Spatial Models 空间模型中数据补全的贝叶斯方法
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-08-14 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i2.1472
W. Polasek, Carlos Llano, Richard Sellner
Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a unified framework for the three problems(interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series(the ‘indicators’). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cross-sectional data and compares the classical and Bayesian estimation methods. We outline the error covariance structure in a spatial context and derive the BLUE for ML and Bayesian MCMC estimation. In an example, we apply the procedure to Spanish regional GDP data between2000 and 2004. We assume that only NUTS-2 GDP is known and predict GDP at NUTS-3level by using socio-economic and spatial information available at NUTS-3. The spatial neighbourhood is defined by either km distance, travel time, contiguity or trade relationships. After running some sensitivity analysis, we present the forecast accuracy criteria comparing the predicted values with the observed ones.
Chow和Lin(1971)首先针对相关序列(“指标”)预测时间序列的三个问题(内插、外推和分布)提出了统一的框架。本文提出了一种用于截面数据的空间周-林方法,并对经典估计方法和贝叶斯估计方法进行了比较。我们概述了空间背景下的误差协方差结构,并推导了ML和贝叶斯MCMC估计的BLUE。在一个示例中,我们将该程序应用于2000年至2004年之间的西班牙地区GDP数据。我们假设只有NUTS-2的GDP是已知的,并利用NUTS-3的社会经济和空间信息预测NUTS-3水平的GDP。空间邻域由公里距离、旅行时间、邻近度或贸易关系来定义。在进行敏感性分析后,提出了预报精度标准,并将预测值与实测值进行了比较。
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引用次数: 23
Finance, Market, Globalization: Lessons from the 2007-09 Crisis 金融、市场、全球化:2007-09年危机的教训
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-08-10 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i3.1368
S. Rossi
Never before has finance been regarded with the suspicion of these past three years. Yet money and credit are part of what enabled human beings to overcome the barbarism of immanence, the savagery of a life ruled by consumption for survival. The critical rethinking of finance involves the very notion of market economy and the globalized dimension it has reached. Who failed in this crisis, the State or the Market? The State, although by virtue of a paradox. Is globalization the culprit? No. A different financial system must emerge from the 2007-09 crisis: freed from the “idolatry of laissez-faire”, but not thrown back into obsolete technologies or permanently restrained by anachronistic “real socialism” bridles.
在过去的三年里,金融从来没有受到过这样的怀疑。然而,金钱和信用是使人类克服内在的野蛮,克服为生存而消费所支配的野蛮生活的一部分。对金融的批判性反思涉及到市场经济的概念及其所达到的全球化维度。谁在这场危机中失败了,政府还是市场?国家,虽然凭借一个悖论。全球化是罪魁祸首吗?不。从2007-09年的危机中必须出现一个不同的金融体系:从“自由放任主义的偶像崇拜”中解放出来,但不被抛回过时的技术,也不被不合时宜的“真正的社会主义”缰链永久束缚。
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引用次数: 0
An Agnostic Look at Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics 贝叶斯统计与计量经济学的不可知论观
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-08-06 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i2.1470
R. Davidson
Bayesians and non-Bayesians, often called frequentists, seem to be perpetually at loggerheads on fundamental questions of statistical inference. This paper takes as agnostic a stand as is possible for a practising frequentist, and tries to elicit a Bayesian answer to questions of interest to frequentists. The argument is based on my presentation at a debate organised by the Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, between me as the frequentist “advocate”, and Christian Robert on the Bayesian side.
贝叶斯派和非贝叶斯派,通常被称为频率论者,似乎在统计推断的基本问题上永远存在分歧。本文采取了不可知论的立场,作为一个实践性的频率论者,并试图引出一个贝叶斯答案的问题感兴趣的频率论者。这一论点是基于我在里米尼经济分析中心(Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)组织的一场辩论上的发言,我是频率论的“倡导者”,而克里斯蒂安•罗伯特(Christian Robert)是贝叶斯派。
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引用次数: 0
Size Distortion of Bootstrap Tests: an Example from Unit Root Testing 引导测试的大小失真:一个来自单位根测试的例子
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-08-06 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i2.1471
R. Davidson
Testing for a unit root in a series obtained by summing a stationary MA(1) process with a parameter close to -1 leads to serious size distortions under the null, on account of the near cancellation of the unit root by the MA component in the driving stationary series. The situation is analysed from the point of view of bootstrap testing, and an exact quantitative account is given of the error in rejection probability of a bootstrap test. A particular method of estimating the MA parameter is recommended, as it leads to very little distortion even when the MA parameter is close to -1. A new bootstrap procedure with still better properties is proposed. While more computationally demanding than the usual bootstrap, it is much less so than the double bootstrap.
对参数接近于-1的平稳MA(1)过程求和得到的序列的单位根进行测试,由于驱动平稳序列中的MA分量几乎抵消了单位根,因此在null下会导致严重的尺寸失真。从自举测试的角度对这种情况进行了分析,并对自举测试的拒绝概率误差给出了精确的定量说明。推荐一种估算MA参数的特殊方法,因为即使MA参数接近-1,它也会导致非常小的失真。提出了一种性能更好的自举过程。虽然比通常的自举法需要更多的计算量,但它比双自举法要少得多。
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引用次数: 1
Guest Editorial: Workshop on Bayesian Econometric Methods 嘉宾评论:贝叶斯计量经济学方法研讨会
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-08-04 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i2.1467
Rodney W. Strachan
The 3rd RCEA Bayesian workshop was held in Rimini in July, 2009. The workshop opened with a debate, chaired by Gael Martin, between a leading Bayesian econometrician, Christian Robert, and a leading classical econometrician, Russell Davidson, on the relative virtues of the Bayesian and classical (or frequentist) approaches. The pleasantly civil debate was conducted under the topic "The 21st Century Belongs to Bayes". The workshop also brought together a variety of both classical and Bayesian econometricians and statisticians, with a view to participants exchanging information on developments in their specific fields of research. The two papers of this volume one classical in approach and one Bayesian, with insights into classical approaches partially reflect this purpose, with many more papers having been presented at the workshop itself. In his paper, Russell Davidson investigates issues in bootstrap testing using, as an example, testing for a unit root in an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (1,1) process. He focuses on the situation when the root of the MA polynomial is close to minus one. Size distortions in the bootstrap tests result when testing in this situation, due to the near cancellation of the unit AR root with the MA root. Davidson proposes estimators based on nonlinear least squares that are faster to compute than, but not quite as efficient as, the maximum likelihood estimator. These estimators are slower to compute than those proposed by Galbraith and Zinde-Walsh (1994) and (1997), but far more efficient than the Galbraith and Zinde-Walsh estimators. Further, Davidson proposes a new bootstrap procedure that is computationally less demanding than the double bootstrap of Beran (1988). Davidson produces all of his results without recourse to asymptotic theory or asymptotic refinements of the testing procedure. Polasek, Sellner and Llano consider the problem of estimation and prediction in spatial models when data measurements are taken at different degrees of aggregation and where some observations are missing at one or more levels of aggregation. They adapt the procedure of Chow and Lin (1971), which was developed for time series data with observations on
第三届RCEA贝叶斯研讨会于2009年7月在里米尼举行。研讨会以一场辩论拉开序幕,由盖尔·马丁主持,主要的贝叶斯计量经济学家克里斯蒂安·罗伯特和主要的古典计量经济学家拉塞尔·戴维森就贝叶斯方法和古典(或频率论)方法的相对优点进行了辩论。这场愉快的民间辩论的主题是“21世纪属于贝叶斯”。讲习班还汇集了各种古典和贝叶斯计量经济学家和统计学家,以便与会者就其具体研究领域的发展交流信息。本卷的两篇论文,一篇是经典方法,一篇是贝叶斯方法,对经典方法的见解部分反映了这一目的,还有更多的论文在研讨会上发表。在他的论文中,Russell Davidson以自回归移动平均(ARMA)(1,1)过程中的单位根测试为例,研究了自举测试中的问题。他关注的是MA多项式的根接近于- 1的情况。在这种情况下测试时,由于单位AR根与MA根几乎相消,导致引导测试中的大小扭曲。Davidson提出了基于非线性最小二乘的估计器,计算速度比最大似然估计器快,但效率不如最大似然估计器。这些估计器的计算速度比Galbraith和zind - walsh(1994)和(1997)提出的估计器慢,但比Galbraith和zind - walsh估计器有效得多。此外,Davidson提出了一种新的自举过程,它比Beran(1988)的双自举过程在计算上要求更低。戴维森得出了他所有的结果,而没有求助于渐近理论或渐近改进的测试程序。Polasek, Sellner和Llano考虑了在不同聚集程度上进行数据测量以及在一个或多个聚集水平上缺失一些观测值时空间模型中的估计和预测问题。他们采用了Chow和Lin(1971)的程序,该程序是针对具有观测值的时间序列数据开发的
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引用次数: 0
‘The 21st Century Belongs to Bayes’ Debate: Introduction “21世纪属于贝叶斯”的辩论:引言
IF 0.5 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2010-06-08 DOI: 10.15353/rea.v2i2.1468
G. Martin
The primary aim of the Rimini debate was to highlight the value of both the Bayesian and frequentist (classical) paradigms, and the contributions that both make to statistical practice in the applied sciences. That said, I (the organizers?) did not wish the exercise to be a sanitized one, with the shortcomings of both methods also to be confronted. Hence, a topic was chosen that was provocative enough to bring those shortcomings to the fore, but which also had the potential to lead to some reconciliation between these two important areas of intellectual endeavour. The topic also seemed particularly apt, being positioned as we are at the beginning of the second decade of the new century, and nearly two decades on from the advent of the (Bayesian) Markov chain Monte Carlo ‘revolution’. The two speakers were selected by the organizers because of their renowned authority in the respective fields of Bayesian and frequentist inference, with both serving to produce stimulating and lively presentations for the audience. For the purposes of publication, however, both authors have chosen to synthesize their presentations into two short, but dense, treatises on the respective paradigms. As Russell Davidson has crafted his paper in such a way that poses certain pertinent questions to the Bayesian community, we have published his paper first. Christian Robert, in addition to expounding his view of the Bayesian paradigm and the reasons for his adherence to it then addresses some of those questions. Christian Robert also plays the devil’s advocate throughout his own paper, noting criticisms that have
里米尼辩论的主要目的是强调贝叶斯和频率论(经典)范式的价值,以及两者对应用科学统计实践的贡献。话虽如此,我(组织者?)不希望这是一场经过消毒的演习,同时也要面对两种方法的缺点。因此,我们选择了一个具有足够挑衅性的话题来突出这些缺点,但也有可能在这两个重要的知识领域之间达成某种和解。这个话题似乎也特别合适,因为我们正处于新世纪第二个十年的开始,距离(贝叶斯)马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛“革命”的出现已经近20年了。这两位演讲者是由组织者选择的,因为他们在各自的贝叶斯和频率推理领域享有盛名的权威,他们都为观众提供了刺激和生动的演讲。然而,为了出版的目的,两位作者都选择将他们的介绍综合成两篇简短但密集的关于各自范式的论文。由于Russell Davidson以这样一种方式撰写了他的论文,向贝叶斯社区提出了一些相关的问题,我们首先发表了他的论文。克里斯蒂安·罗伯特,除了阐述他对贝叶斯范式的看法以及他坚持贝叶斯范式的原因之外,还回答了其中的一些问题。克里斯汀·罗伯特在他自己的论文中也扮演着唱反调的角色
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Review of Economic Analysis
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