This paper examines whether elections, which are generally held on fixed dates, and banking crises explain the timing of tax reforms and the allocation of the additional tax burden. Using an original fine-grained data set of tax reforms, the paper finds support for the role of these two sources of variation. In particular, the probability of reform is higher during banking crises. During electoral periods, increasing taxes becomes highly unlikely, even if the government is facing financing problems. Interestingly, politics seem to trump economics: banking crises do not affect the probability of having a reform during electoral times. Moreover, the presence of an IMF program affects the tax instruments chosen: countries with a program increase the value-added tax, while those without raise the personal income tax. Finally, the ideology of the president does not explain who bears the additional tax burden.
{"title":"Explaining Changes in Tax Burdens in Latin America: Does Politics Trump Economics?","authors":"Mark Hallerberg, Carlos Scartascini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2729666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2729666","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether elections, which are generally held on fixed dates, and banking crises explain the timing of tax reforms and the allocation of the additional tax burden. Using an original fine-grained data set of tax reforms, the paper finds support for the role of these two sources of variation. In particular, the probability of reform is higher during banking crises. During electoral periods, increasing taxes becomes highly unlikely, even if the government is facing financing problems. Interestingly, politics seem to trump economics: banking crises do not affect the probability of having a reform during electoral times. Moreover, the presence of an IMF program affects the tax instruments chosen: countries with a program increase the value-added tax, while those without raise the personal income tax. Finally, the ideology of the president does not explain who bears the additional tax burden.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123752407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that workers who do not receive legally mandated benefits due to employer noncompliance have a negative view not only of their employers, as has been documented, but also of the State. Those workers believe that the State did not protect their rights, and hence they feel fewer obligations to comply with their duties as citizens. Using a list experiment, as well as household data from nine Latin American countries, the paper shows that non-registered workers are less likely to obey the law, pay taxes and vote compared to registered workers.
{"title":"Labor Exclusion and the Erosion of Citizenship Responsibilities","authors":"L. Ronconi, Rodrigo Zarazaga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2581396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2581396","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that workers who do not receive legally mandated benefits due to employer noncompliance have a negative view not only of their employers, as has been documented, but also of the State. Those workers believe that the State did not protect their rights, and hence they feel fewer obligations to comply with their duties as citizens. Using a list experiment, as well as household data from nine Latin American countries, the paper shows that non-registered workers are less likely to obey the law, pay taxes and vote compared to registered workers.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114639223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The informal sector is an extensive phenomenon in developing countries. While some of its implications have drawn considerable attention in the literature, one relatively unexplored aspect has to do with the saving patterns of workers and firms and how these might influence aggregate savings and wealth inequality. This paper aims to fill that gap by examining both entrepreneurs' and workers' choices regarding whether to perform informally and regarding asset accumulation. Specifically, the paper builds an occupational choice model wherein saving is primarily motivated by precautionary considerations. The model features labor and capital market segmentation, and it is calibrated to replicate the saving rates, wealth inequality and composition of occupations across the formal and informal sectors of Colombia. Computational experiments additionally make it possible to analyze the effects of highly debated formalization policies on wealth redistribution and promotion of saving and entrepreneurship. Alternative frameworks are finally considered.
{"title":"Informality, Saving and Wealth Inequality in Colombia","authors":"Catalina Granda-Carvajal, Franz Hamann","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2581400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2581400","url":null,"abstract":"The informal sector is an extensive phenomenon in developing countries. While some of its implications have drawn considerable attention in the literature, one relatively unexplored aspect has to do with the saving patterns of workers and firms and how these might influence aggregate savings and wealth inequality. This paper aims to fill that gap by examining both entrepreneurs' and workers' choices regarding whether to perform informally and regarding asset accumulation. Specifically, the paper builds an occupational choice model wherein saving is primarily motivated by precautionary considerations. The model features labor and capital market segmentation, and it is calibrated to replicate the saving rates, wealth inequality and composition of occupations across the formal and informal sectors of Colombia. Computational experiments additionally make it possible to analyze the effects of highly debated formalization policies on wealth redistribution and promotion of saving and entrepreneurship. Alternative frameworks are finally considered.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134207836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to improve secondary school students’ ability to reason and argue using mathematics. A structured pedagogical intervention was created to foster a more active role of students in the classroom. The intervention was implemented with high fidelity and was internally valid. Surprisingly, students in the control group learned significantly more than those who received treatment.
{"title":"Challenges in Educational Reform: An Experiment on Active Learning in Mathematics","authors":"S. Berlinski, Matías Busso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2581397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2581397","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to improve secondary school students’ ability to reason and argue using mathematics. A structured pedagogical intervention was created to foster a more active role of students in the classroom. The intervention was implemented with high fidelity and was internally valid. Surprisingly, students in the control group learned significantly more than those who received treatment.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123792525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is imposing a large burden on the most vulnerable populations, particularly in the developing world. Establishing consistent causal relationships, however, is difficult because a multiplicity of climatic, economic and sociodemographic elements are combined to create the conditions for an outbreak of vector-borne disease. Based on a two-step procedure, this paper presents and tests an approach to estimating the effects of epidemic outbreaks on health vulnerability. The model proposed is empirically tested for five countries in Latin America where dengue is a national health priority. Using data from national censuses, satellite climate information and data from a newly developed disease outbreak surveillance online platform, the paper finds that climate has nonnegligible effects on health vulnerability. The evidence found and the vulnerability index constructed can be used to analyze the main determinants of vulnerability in order to address policy concerns.
{"title":"Assessing the Effects of Climate and Socioeconomic Factors on Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases in Latin America","authors":"Rodrigo Ayala, A. Estrugo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2533567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2533567","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is imposing a large burden on the most vulnerable populations, particularly in the developing world. Establishing consistent causal relationships, however, is difficult because a multiplicity of climatic, economic and sociodemographic elements are combined to create the conditions for an outbreak of vector-borne disease. Based on a two-step procedure, this paper presents and tests an approach to estimating the effects of epidemic outbreaks on health vulnerability. The model proposed is empirically tested for five countries in Latin America where dengue is a national health priority. Using data from national censuses, satellite climate information and data from a newly developed disease outbreak surveillance online platform, the paper finds that climate has nonnegligible effects on health vulnerability. The evidence found and the vulnerability index constructed can be used to analyze the main determinants of vulnerability in order to address policy concerns.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"499 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116287011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, Verónica Frisancho, C. Yavas
This paper provides some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administra- tive data on the university entrance exam in Turkey, the paper estimates cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into re- taking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. Large learning gains mea- sured in terms of improvements in the exam scores are found, especially among less advantaged students.
{"title":"Better Luck Next Time: Learning Through Retaking","authors":"K. Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, Verónica Frisancho, C. Yavas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2391680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2391680","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administra- tive data on the university entrance exam in Turkey, the paper estimates cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into re- taking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. Large learning gains mea- sured in terms of improvements in the exam scores are found, especially among less advantaged students.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132558605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change mitigation policies have begun to be discussed in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries in recent years. However, the economic effects of such policies - i. e. , winners and losers - may vary significantly across countries. This paper attempts to shed light on some of these differences for a set of five LAC countries that may in the future adopt or be forced to accept some form of carbon mitigation policy. To this end a single-country CGE model is used to simulate a set of domestic carbon taxes that the countries could adopt or face. The results show that the costs of reducing 1 percent of emissions are in a range of 0. 18 to 0. 32 percent of GDP. Although in all instances the primary objective of reducing emissions is achieved, the sectors that win/lose vary, making this type of analysis relevant for countries to use before adopting a given policy. There is evidence, however, that those costs could become benefits when carbon taxes are compensated with reductions in general taxes.
{"title":"The Cost of Lower Emissions: An Appraisal for Five LAC Economies Using CGE Models","authors":"Omar O. Chisari, Sebastián Miller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2367701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2367701","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change mitigation policies have begun to be discussed in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries in recent years. However, the economic effects of such policies - i. e. , winners and losers - may vary significantly across countries. This paper attempts to shed light on some of these differences for a set of five LAC countries that may in the future adopt or be forced to accept some form of carbon mitigation policy. To this end a single-country CGE model is used to simulate a set of domestic carbon taxes that the countries could adopt or face. The results show that the costs of reducing 1 percent of emissions are in a range of 0. 18 to 0. 32 percent of GDP. Although in all instances the primary objective of reducing emissions is achieved, the sectors that win/lose vary, making this type of analysis relevant for countries to use before adopting a given policy. There is evidence, however, that those costs could become benefits when carbon taxes are compensated with reductions in general taxes.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125544770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Javier Alvaredo, A. Bonvecchi, Ernesto Calvo, Maximiliano Castillo, Juan Carlos Gómez Sabaini
Although recent research has shed new light on the political determinants and economic consequences of tax lawmaking, existing analyses rely on coarse data measuring political aggregates. Consequently, little is known about the political processes determining how tax legislation is written or their effect on the nature of tax reforms. This paper therefore develops a methodology to examine how Congress edits the content of tax legislation by measuring the ways Deputies, Senators, Presidents, and Ministers propose and amend such legislation. The Legislative Substance Scale proposed here measures the distance between a bill’s original position and the actual outcome of the legislative process by comparing the differences in content according to coding of the main tax policy dimensions. The scale is used to build the first systematic database of tax lawmaking in Argentina, and to describe its general patterns of authorship, approval and substantive content across presidencies in the current democratic period.
{"title":"Measuring the Political Economy of Tax Lawmaking: A Methodology and Evidence from Argentina","authors":"Javier Alvaredo, A. Bonvecchi, Ernesto Calvo, Maximiliano Castillo, Juan Carlos Gómez Sabaini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2367697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2367697","url":null,"abstract":"Although recent research has shed new light on the political determinants and economic consequences of tax lawmaking, existing analyses rely on coarse data measuring political aggregates. Consequently, little is known about the political processes determining how tax legislation is written or their effect on the nature of tax reforms. This paper therefore develops a methodology to examine how Congress edits the content of tax legislation by measuring the ways Deputies, Senators, Presidents, and Ministers propose and amend such legislation. The Legislative Substance Scale proposed here measures the distance between a bill’s original position and the actual outcome of the legislative process by comparing the differences in content according to coding of the main tax policy dimensions. The scale is used to build the first systematic database of tax lawmaking in Argentina, and to describe its general patterns of authorship, approval and substantive content across presidencies in the current democratic period.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126080904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In addition to the morbidity and mortality concerns of outdoor air pollution, studies have shown that air pollution also generates problems for children`s cognitive performance and human capital formation. High concentrations of pollutants can affect children’s learning process by exacerbating respiratory illnesses, fatigue, absenteeism and attention problems. The purpose of this work is to analyze the possible contemporary effects of PM10 and other different air pollutants on standardized test scores in Chile. It examines results for 3,880 schools in the Metropolitan, Valparaiso and O’Higgins regions for children in fourth, eight and tenth grades between 1997 and 2012. Data for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2. 5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and ozone (O3) were interpolated at school level using a kriging methodology. The results suggest that higher annual P M10 and O3 levels are clearly associated with a reduction in test scores. Nonetheless, as of 2012 many municipalities in these Chilean regions are still exceeding the annual P M10 international standard quality norm (50 micrograms per cubic meter) by 15 micrograms per cubic meter on average. Efforts to reduce pollution below this norm in the most polluted municipalities would account for improvements in reading and math test scores of 3. 5 percent and 3. 1 percent of a standard deviation, respectively.
{"title":"The Effects of Air Pollution on Educational Outcomes: Evidence from Chile","authors":"Sebastián Miller, M. Vela","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2370257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2370257","url":null,"abstract":"In addition to the morbidity and mortality concerns of outdoor air pollution, studies have shown that air pollution also generates problems for children`s cognitive performance and human capital formation. High concentrations of pollutants can affect children’s learning process by exacerbating respiratory illnesses, fatigue, absenteeism and attention problems. The purpose of this work is to analyze the possible contemporary effects of PM10 and other different air pollutants on standardized test scores in Chile. It examines results for 3,880 schools in the Metropolitan, Valparaiso and O’Higgins regions for children in fourth, eight and tenth grades between 1997 and 2012. Data for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2. 5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and ozone (O3) were interpolated at school level using a kriging methodology. The results suggest that higher annual P M10 and O3 levels are clearly associated with a reduction in test scores. Nonetheless, as of 2012 many municipalities in these Chilean regions are still exceeding the annual P M10 international standard quality norm (50 micrograms per cubic meter) by 15 micrograms per cubic meter on average. Efforts to reduce pollution below this norm in the most polluted municipalities would account for improvements in reading and math test scores of 3. 5 percent and 3. 1 percent of a standard deviation, respectively.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125274197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Hale, Christopher Candelaria, J. Caballero, S. Borisov
This paper shows that bank linkages have a positive effect on international trade. A global banking network (GBN) is constructed at the bank level, using individual syndicated loan data from Loan Analytics for 1990-2007. Network distance between bank pairs is computed and aggregated to country pairs as a measure of bank linkages between countries. Data on bilateral trade from IMF DOTS are used as the subject of the analysis and data on bilateral bank lending from BIS locational data are used to control for financial integration and financial flows. Using a gravity approach to modeling trade with country-pair and year fixed effects, the paper finds that new connections between banks in a given country-pair lead to an increase in trade flow in the following year, even after controlling for the stock and flow of bank lending between the two countries. It is conjectured that the mechanism for this effect is that bank linkages reduce export risk, and four sets of results that support this conjecture are presented.
{"title":"Bank Linkages and International Trade","authors":"G. Hale, Christopher Candelaria, J. Caballero, S. Borisov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2367699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2367699","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that bank linkages have a positive effect on international trade. A global banking network (GBN) is constructed at the bank level, using individual syndicated loan data from Loan Analytics for 1990-2007. Network distance between bank pairs is computed and aggregated to country pairs as a measure of bank linkages between countries. Data on bilateral trade from IMF DOTS are used as the subject of the analysis and data on bilateral bank lending from BIS locational data are used to control for financial integration and financial flows. Using a gravity approach to modeling trade with country-pair and year fixed effects, the paper finds that new connections between banks in a given country-pair lead to an increase in trade flow in the following year, even after controlling for the stock and flow of bank lending between the two countries. It is conjectured that the mechanism for this effect is that bank linkages reduce export risk, and four sets of results that support this conjecture are presented.","PeriodicalId":424829,"journal":{"name":"Inter-American Development Bank Research Paper Series","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125156944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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