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Generative Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Security in Central Banking 中央银行的生成人工智能和网络安全
IF 2.6 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae008
Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta, Sukhvir Notra, Tommaso Oliviero, David Whyte
Generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) introduces novel opportunities to strengthen central banks’ cyber security but also presents new risks. This article uses data from a unique survey among cyber security experts at major central banks to shed light on these issues. Responses reveal that most central banks have already adopted or plan to adopt gen AI tools in the context of cyber security, as perceived benefits outweigh risks. Experts foresee that AI tools will improve cyber threat detection and reduce response time to cyber attacks. Yet gen AI also increases the risks of social engineering attacks and unauthorized data disclosure. To mitigate these risks and harness the benefits of gen AI, central banks anticipate a need for substantial investments in human capital, especially in staff with expertise in both cyber security and AI programming. Finally, while respondents expect gen AI to automate various tasks, they also expect it to support human experts in other roles, such as oversight of AI models.
生成式人工智能(gen AI)为加强中央银行的网络安全带来了新的机遇,但也带来了新的风险。本文利用对主要中央银行的网络安全专家进行的一项独特调查的数据来揭示这些问题。调查结果显示,大多数中央银行已经采用或计划在网络安全方面采用人工智能工具,因为他们认为人工智能工具的好处大于风险。专家们预计,人工智能工具将提高网络威胁检测能力,缩短对网络攻击的响应时间。然而,新一代人工智能也增加了社交工程攻击和未经授权的数据泄露的风险。为了降低这些风险并利用 gen AI 的优势,中央银行预计需要在人力资本方面进行大量投资,特别是在同时具备网络安全和 AI 编程专业知识的员工方面。最后,虽然受访者希望 gen AI 能够实现各种任务的自动化,但他们也希望 gen AI 能够支持人类专家发挥其他作用,如监督 AI 模型。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Repo Market Transparency: The EU Securities Financing Transactions Regulation 提高回购市场透明度:欧盟证券融资交易条例
IF 2.6 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae009
Claudio Bassi, Michael Grill, Felix Hermes, Harun Mirza, Charles O’Donnell, Michael Wedow
The introduction of the Securities Financing Transactions Regulation into EU law provides a unique opportunity to obtain an in-depth understanding of repo markets. Based on the transaction-level data reported under the regulation, this article contributes to the literature with key facts about the euro area repo market. We start by providing the regulatory background, as well as highlighting some of its advantages for financial stability analysis. We then go on to present three sets of findings that are highly relevant to financial stability and focus on the dimensions of the different market segments, counterparties, and collateral, including haircut practices. Finally, we outline how the data reported under the regulation can support the policy work of central banks and supervisory authorities and contribute to the existing literature on repo markets. We demonstrate that these data can be used to make several important contributions to enhancing our understanding of the repo market from a financial stability perspective, ultimately assisting international efforts to increase repo market resilience.
在欧盟法律中引入《证券融资交易条例》为深入了解回购市场提供了一个独特的机会。本文以根据该条例报告的交易层面数据为基础,为文献提供了有关欧元区回购市场的重要事实。我们首先介绍了监管背景,并强调了其在金融稳定性分析方面的一些优势。然后,我们将介绍与金融稳定性高度相关的三组研究结果,并重点关注不同细分市场、交易对手和抵押品(包括扣减做法)的各个层面。最后,我们概述了根据法规报告的数据如何支持中央银行和监管机构的政策工作,以及如何为现有的回购市场文献做出贡献。我们表明,这些数据可用于从金融稳定的角度加深我们对回购市场的理解,最终帮助国际社会努力提高回购市场的抗风险能力。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Could it Happen in the EU? An Analysis of Loss Distributionbetween Shareholders and AT1 Bondholders under EU Law 更正为欧盟会发生这种情况吗?欧盟法律下股东与 AT1 债券持有人之间的损失分配分析
IF 2 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae007
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引用次数: 0
Ten Years of the Single Supervisory Mechanism: Looking into the Past, Navigating into the Future 单一监管机制十年:回顾过去,展望未来
IF 2.6 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae005
Apostolos Thomadakis, Judith Arnal
In November 2024 European banking supervision will have been operational for 10 years. The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) has evolved from a start-up to a mature, well-established, and respected supervisor. Harmonized and transparent supervisory practices have been implemented, whilst the European banking sector has proved to be resilient. Nevertheless, whilst acknowledging the progress that has been made, Europe should not rest on its laurels. As the global financial landscape is continuously evolving, the European framework must also evolve. Growing geopolitical tensions, the rise of FinTech and BigTech companies, the ongoing digital transformation, and climate change not only impact banks but also add more complexity to the work of supervisors. This is due to unexpected and difficult-to-model events, the creation of new business models, products, and services, as well as the emergence of cultural, behavioural, and ethical considerations that should be taken into account. To address these challenges, supervisors should enhance their competencies, approaches, and tools to stay ahead of evolving market dynamics and to remain aligned with the rapid evolution of technology and the risks that climate change poses. Equally important, ensuring thorough and efficient supervision requires fostering and strengthening collaboration and information sharing between all relevant authorities.
2024 年 11 月,欧洲银行业监管机制将运行 10 年。单一监管机制(SSM)已从一个初创机构发展成为一个成熟、完善和受人尊敬的监管机构。统一、透明的监管措施已经实施,而欧洲银行业也证明了其强大的生命力。然而,在肯定已经取得的进步的同时,欧洲不应满足于已有的成就。随着全球金融格局的不断演变,欧洲框架也必须随之发展。日益紧张的地缘政治局势、金融科技和大科技公司的崛起、正在进行的数字化转型以及气候变化不仅对银行产生影响,也给监管机构的工作增加了更多复杂性。这是由于突发事件和难以模拟的事件,新业务模式、产品和服务的创造,以及文化、行为和道德因素的出现,这些都应纳入考虑范围。为应对这些挑战,监管机构应加强自身能力、方法和工具,以领先于不断变化的市场动态,并与技术的快速发展和气候变化带来的风险保持一致。同样重要的是,要确保彻底高效的监管,就必须促进和加强所有相关部门之间的合作与信息共享。
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引用次数: 0
“Tis new to thee’: response to Gruenewald, Knijp, Schoenmaker, and van Tilburg "对你来说是新的':对 Gruenewald、Knijp、Schoenmaker 和 van Tilburg 的回应
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae004
Dimitri Demekas, Pierpaolo Grippa
In ‘Embracing the Brave New World: A Response to Demekas and Grippa’, a response to our article ‘Walking a Tightrope: Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy’, both published in the Journal of Financial Regulation, Gruenewald, Knijp, Schoenmaker, and van Tilburg claim that climate risk is a clear and present danger to financial stability that justifies imposing higher capital requirements on supervised firms. Until the current prudential risk framework is revised to fully capture climate risk, they advocate ad hoc measures, such as adjustments to risk weights, which, they believe, would have the desired effect. In this article, we argue that these claims are misguided. Given the nature of climate risk, risk assessment models cannot provide a reliable basis for calibrating capital requirements. On the basis of the evidence, prudential tools would have only a negligible impact on the transition. And the idea of adjusting risk weights for climate exposures has been abandoned—for good reasons. Ultimately, there is nothing financial regulation can do about the energy transition that an appropriately designed carbon tax cannot do better. Central banks and financial regulators should resist the pressure to take on additional responsibilities that are essentially political and that they cannot properly discharge.
在《拥抱勇敢的新世界:对 Demekas 和 Grippa 的回应》是对我们的文章《走钢丝:中,Gruenewald、Knijp、Schoenmaker 和 van Tilburg 声称,气候风险对金融稳定构成了明确而现实的危险,因此有理由对受监管公司提出更高的资本要求。在修订现行审慎风险框架以充分反映气候风险之前,他们主张采取临时措施,如调整风险权重,他们认为这样做可以达到预期效果。在本文中,我们认为这些主张是错误的。鉴于气候风险的性质,风险评估模型无法为校准资本要求提供可靠的依据。根据证据,审慎工具对过渡的影响微乎其微。针对气候风险调整风险权重的想法已被放弃--这是有充分理由的。归根结底,对于能源转型,金融监管所能做的,只有设计合理的碳税才能做得更好。中央银行和金融监管机构应抵制压力,不承担本质上是政治性的、他们无法适当履行的额外责任。
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引用次数: 0
Could it Happen in the EU? An Analysis of Loss Distribution between Shareholders and AT1 Bondholders under EU Law 这种情况会在欧盟发生吗?欧盟法律下股东与 AT1 债券持有人之间的损失分配分析
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae003
Sjur Swensen Ellingsæter
In March 2023, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse’s so-called Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds were written down to facilitate the bank being taken over by UBS, its national rival. Ensuing discussion and market reactions went well beyond Swiss borders, as the write-down was completed without Credit Suisse’s shareholders first being wiped out, thereby deviating from the principle that shareholders bear losses ahead of all other investors. This article asks whether such an outcome is possible under EU law. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates how this question is governed by the combined operation of contractual clauses and the resolution authority’s statutory powers. Combining applicable EU law with empirical analysis of contractual terms employed by EU banks issuing AT1 bonds and their capital requirements, the article argues that an outcome akin to that of the Credit Suisse write-down is unlikely for EU banks. Building on this analysis, it is shown what reform is needed if EU policymakers consider it desirable to have AT1 bonds absorb losses outside of cases requiring intervention by the resolution authority.
2023 年 3 月,瑞士信贷银行的所谓 "额外一级(AT1)债券 "被减记,以便其国内竞争对手瑞银集团(UBS)接管该银行。随后的讨论和市场反应远远超出了瑞士的国界,因为减记完成后,瑞士信贷的股东并没有首先被消灭,从而偏离了股东先于所有其他投资者承担损失的原则。本文提出的问题是,根据欧盟法律是否可能出现这种结果。综合分析表明了这一问题如何受合同条款和破产管理机构法定权力的共同影响。结合适用的欧盟法律和对发行 AT1 债券的欧盟银行所采用的合同条款及其资本要求的实证分析,文章认为欧盟银行不太可能出现类似瑞士信贷减记的结果。在这一分析的基础上,文章说明了如果欧盟政策制定者认为让 AT1 债券在需要决议机构干预的情况之外吸收损失是可取的,那么需要进行哪些改革。
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引用次数: 0
The European Securitization Market: Effects of an Uneven Regulatory Playing Field 欧洲证券化市场:不均衡监管环境的影响
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae002
Thomas Papadogiannis Varouchakis
This article critically assesses the European securitization industry’s claim of the existence of an uneven regulatory playing field for securitization structures vis-à-vis financial instruments deemed ‘neighbouring’ to securitization by the industry, like whole loan pools, corporate bonds, and covered bonds. According to market participants, the adverse regulatory treatment of securitization is negatively affecting the European securitization market, by pushing issuers and investors towards other financial instruments that are treated preferentially. Ultimately, this prevents the securitization market from escaping the subdued state in which it has been ever since the global financial crisis. To address this problem, market participants are advocating a fundamental recalibration of the existing regulatory framework. By examining the regulatory framework that applies to securitization structures, against the backdrop of regulation for whole loan pools, corporate bonds, and covered bonds, this article confirms that securitization structures are indeed treated adversely, as claimed by the industry. Nevertheless, a valid comparison can only be drawn between ‘true sale’ residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) structures and mortgage covered bonds, given the structural-economic similarities between the two financial instruments. In that regard, the adverse regulatory treatment of RMBS is found to be negatively impacting the European securitization market, by fuelling a ‘crowding out’ of RMBS by covered bonds.
本文批判性地评估了欧洲证券化行业的主张,即证券化结构与该行业认为与证券化 "相邻 "的金融工具(如整体贷款池、公司债券和担保债券)相比,存在不公平的监管竞争环境。据市场参与者称,对证券化的不利监管待遇正在对欧洲证券化市场产生负面影响,将发行人和投资者推向受到优待的其他金融工具。最终,这使得证券化市场无法摆脱自全球金融危机以来的低迷状态。为了解决这个问题,市场参与者主张从根本上重新调整现有的监管框架。本文以整个贷款池、公司债券和担保债券的监管为背景,研究了适用于证券化结构的监管框架,证实了证券化结构确实如业界所称受到了不利待遇。然而,鉴于 "真实销售 "住宅抵押贷款支持证券(RMBS)结构和抵押担保债券这两种金融工具在结构上和经济上的相似性,我们只能对这两种金融工具进行有效的比较。在这方面,对住宅抵押贷款支持证券的不利监管待遇对欧洲证券化市场产生了负面影响,助长了担保债券对住宅抵押贷款支持证券的 "排挤"。
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引用次数: 0
New Technologies and the Future Governance of Bank Run Risk 新技术与银行挤兑风险的未来治理
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjae001
Signe Krogstrup, Thomas Sangill
The banking turmoil in March 2023 and the associated public interventions to prevent or reduce the risk of a systemic fallout underscore the fact that despite banking systems being in a much better shape in many countries relative to the position prior to the global financial crisis, some bank run risk remains. In fact, bank run risk may be increasing. As fintech and new technologies transform banking, uninsured deposits may become near-perfectly mobile, making bank runs all but inevitable if the governance of the financial system is not appropriately adapted. In this article we discuss how digitalization and new technologies can affect bank run risk and we look at approaches to adapting governance to containing related systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system. We also briefly consider how central bank digital currencies could fit into future frameworks. We conclude that there is no silver bullet, but that adjusting frameworks will become necessary if bank deposit mobility increases.
2023 年 3 月的银行业动荡以及为防止或降低系统性风险而采取的相关公共干预措施突出表明,尽管与全球金融危机爆发前相比,许多国家的银行系统状况要好得多,但一些银行挤兑风险依然存在。事实上,银行挤兑风险可能正在增加。随着金融科技和新技术对银行业的改造,无担保存款可能会变得近乎完美地流动,如果不对金融系统的治理进行适当调整,银行挤兑几乎不可避免。在本文中,我们将讨论数字化和新技术如何影响银行挤兑风险,并探讨如何调整治理,以遏制银行体系中的相关系统性漏洞。我们还简要考虑了中央银行数字货币如何融入未来框架。我们的结论是,没有灵丹妙药,但如果银行存款流动性增加,调整框架将成为必要。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralized Finance (DeFi): A Functional Approach 分散式金融(DeFi):功能性方法
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjad013
Matteo Aquilina, Jon Frost, Andreas Schrimpf
‘Decentralized finance’ (DeFi) refers to a range of applications in the crypto-asset space that seek to disintermediate the provision of financial services through reliance on self-executing computer code (‘smart contracts’). DeFi has so far been mainly self-referential in that it has largely facilitated the financing and trading of crypto-assets rather than providing intermediation services to support real economic activity. Yet this may change in the future, should asset tokenization or the use of DeFi applications by existing financial institutions lead to greater interconnections with traditional finance (TradFi). We argue that many of the functions that DeFi tries to mimic are similar to those in TradFi, and so are many of the risks that this intermediation entails. The same economic rationale that has guided financial regulation for decades can hence be applied to the crypto and DeFi world as well. Risks in DeFi are often exacerbated by the severity of market failures (externalities and information asymmetries). Having compared the functions performed in TradFi and DeFi, we show how regulation to protect consumers, maintain market integrity, and ensure financial stability applies to DeFi. Finally, we sketch a possible approach to the regulation of DeFi that takes into account its specificities and functions.
去中心化金融"(DeFi)指的是加密资产领域的一系列应用,这些应用试图通过依赖自动执行的计算机代码("智能合约")来实现金融服务的去中介化。迄今为止,DeFi 主要是自说自话,因为它在很大程度上促进了加密资产的融资和交易,而不是为支持实体经济活动提供中介服务。然而,如果资产代币化或现有金融机构使用 DeFi 应用程序导致与传统金融(TradFi)更多的相互联系,这种情况在未来可能会发生变化。我们认为,DeFi 试图模仿的许多功能与 TradFi 中的功能相似,这种中介所带来的许多风险也是如此。因此,几十年来指导金融监管的经济学原理同样适用于加密货币和 DeFi 领域。市场失灵(外部性和信息不对称)的严重性往往会加剧 DeFi 的风险。在比较了 TradFi 和 DeFi 的功能后,我们说明了保护消费者、维护市场诚信和确保金融稳定的监管如何适用于 DeFi。最后,我们将根据 DeFi 的特点和功能勾勒出监管 DeFi 的可行方法。
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引用次数: 0
An Economic Case against Public Banking, and a Case for It 反对公共银行业务的经济学理由,以及支持公共银行业务的理由
IF 2.6 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjad012
Prasad Krishnamurthy, Tucker Cochenour
In this article, we examine the economics of public consumer banking in the United States. Public expenditures on consumer banking can take the form of price subsidies or direct provision. The economic case for price subsidies is weak because the evidence suggests most unbanked consumers would prefer a cash grant. The economic case for public provision is also weak because the existing market failures in banking are better remedied by regulation. The exceptions to this rule are check cashing and related payment services, which could be supplied by the US Postal Service (USPS) at a lower cost than private providers. On the other hand, economic arguments for the superiority of cash transfers presume that the institutional infrastructure exists to deliver them. But an effective infrastructure for public transfers does not exist in the United States and is only possible with universal ownership of payment accounts, which in turn requires some form of public subsidy or provision. We suggest one path forward: expand the financial services currently offered to federal beneficiaries—such as Social Security recipients—by the Treasury.
本文将探讨美国公共消费银行的经济学问题。对消费者银行业务的公共支出可以采取价格补贴或直接提供的形式。价格补贴的经济理由不充分,因为有证据表明大多数没有银行账户的消费者更愿意接受现金补贴。提供公共服务的经济理由也不充分,因为银行业现有的市场失灵最好通过监管来弥补。但支票兑现和相关支付服务是例外,这些服务可以由美国邮政服务公司(USPS)以低于私人供应商的成本提供。另一方面,关于现金转移优越性的经济论点假定存在提供现金转移的制度基础设施。但美国并不存在有效的公共转账基础设施,只有在全民拥有支付账户的情况下才有可能,而这又需要某种形式的公共补贴或提供。我们建议一条前进之路:扩大财政部目前向联邦受益人(如社会保障受益人)提供的金融服务。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Financial Regulation
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