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Research on Green and Low-Carbon Development Path of the Electric Power Industry 电力行业绿色低碳发展路径研究
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500070
Yao Wang, Peng Xia, Jun Liu
In the analogy where achieving the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals (the “dual carbon” goals) is compared to a battle, energy is the main battlefield, and electric power the main force. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric power industry exerts fundamental impact on progress towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality of the whole society. Therefore, this paper first analyzes challenges and opportunities faced by the electric power industry to achieve the “dual carbon” goals; secondly, on the basis of deep low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon scenarios of the electric power industry, this paper quantifies and delves into the consumption structure of primary energy and final energy, as well as the future development positioning and trend of different categories of energy. Based on the research results, this paper proposes low-carbon transformation path of the electric power system at the stages of carbon peaking, deep low-carbon and carbon neutrality, and analyzes the trend of power supply cost changes in different scenarios. On this basis, a series of implementation key points and measures are proposed to adapt to green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power industry, covering areas such as coal-fired electric power development positioning, new energy development and utilization, diversified supply and demand, new energy industry chain, and power supply costs, and so forth.
将实现“碳达峰和碳中和”目标(“双碳”目标)比作一场战斗,能源是主战场,电力是主力军。电力行业的低碳转型路径对全社会向碳达峰、碳中和迈进产生了根本性影响。因此,本文首先分析了电力行业实现“双碳”目标面临的挑战和机遇;其次,在电力行业深度低碳、零碳和负碳场景的基础上,对一次能源和最终能源的消费结构以及不同类别能源的未来发展定位和趋势进行了量化和深入研究。基于研究结果,提出了电力系统在碳达峰、深度低碳和碳中和阶段的低碳转型路径,并分析了不同情景下供电成本的变化趋势。在此基础上,提出了适应电力行业绿色低碳转型的一系列实施要点和措施,涵盖煤电发展定位、新能源开发利用、多元化供需、新能源产业链、供电成本等领域。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrogen Energy: Development Prospects, Current Obstacles and Policy Suggestions under China’s “Dual Carbon” Goals 氢能:中国“双碳”目标下的发展前景、当前障碍及政策建议
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500069
Zuoyu Sun
Hydrogen energy has an advantage over conventional fossil energy because of its clean and low-carbon features, while its stability gives it an advantage over renewable energy sources such as hydropower, photovoltaic (PV) power, and wind power. Using hydrogen as a fuel can achieve zero carbon emissions or even net zero emissions at the end of energy conversion. Moreover, with hydrogen as the carrier, an energy system of multi-energy complementarity will be established by coupling multiple energy systems such as power grids, gas grids and heat networks, which can realize the comprehensive utilization of renewable energy sources in an efficient, stable, and flexible manner. Based on the “dual carbon” goals, this paper targets sectors with high carbon emissions represented by electric power, steel and transportation, analyzes the feasible path of using hydrogen energy to promote deep carbon reduction, and points out the obstacles faced by hydrogen energy development in various sectors. On account of the current development and expected prospects, this paper proposes that the current focus of hydrogen energy industry is to coordinate the development of industrial sectors and regions, build a pattern that can facilitate the industry’s systematic and concerted development, address key technical challenges (such as green hydrogen production or hydrogen storage and transportation via pipeline), improve industrial standards, and promote the industry’s development in a balanced, coordinated and orderly way.
氢能清洁低碳的特点使其相对于传统化石能源具有优势,而其稳定性又使其相对水电、光伏发电、风电等可再生能源具有优势。使用氢作为燃料可以实现零碳排放,甚至在能量转换结束时实现净零排放。以氢为载体,通过电网、燃气网、热网等多个能源系统的耦合,建立多能互补的能源体系,实现高效、稳定、灵活的可再生能源综合利用。本文以“双碳”目标为基础,针对以电力、钢铁、交通为代表的高碳排放行业,分析了利用氢能促进深度减碳的可行路径,指出了氢能在各行业发展面临的障碍。结合我国氢能产业发展现状和预期前景,本文提出当前氢能产业发展的重点是协调产业部门和区域发展,构建有利于产业系统协同发展的格局,解决关键技术难题(如绿色制氢或管道储运氢),提高行业标准,促进产业均衡发展。协调有序的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Urban Strategies for Mitigation or Adaptation to Climate Change: What Criteria for Choice? 减缓或适应气候变化的城市战略:选择的标准是什么?
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500057
Nazan CÖMERT BAECHLER
Strategies to combat climate change may be based on mitigation of the phenomenon or on adaptation to its consequences. This paper aims to identify the driving factors of the choice between these two categories of strategies in the context of urban climate plans. The fight against climate change being characterized by a logic of free riding, the situation tilts the balance towards adaptation strategies in an urban context, to the detriment of mitigation. This hypothesis is tested here through a review of the existing literature on urban climate strategies. This study shows that, counterintuitively, mitigation prevails over adaptation in urban climate strategies up to now. This paper explores the explanations for this seemingly paradoxical situation. We argue that a big part of the explanation has to do with the institutional context of urban climate strategies, specifically the decision-making capacities of municipalities, or the fact that they take part in international networks promoting mitigation over adaptation. Other explanations rely on the cost/benefit impact of adopting mitigation or adaptation, like the collateral local/private benefits of urban climate strategies that are often bigger with mitigation than adaptation. Another finding is that there is no systematic planning making it compulsory to choose between mitigation and adaptation strategies, as they are in some instances complementary, providing co-benefits.
应对气候变化的战略可能以减缓这一现象或适应其后果为基础。本文旨在确定在城市气候计划背景下在这两类战略之间进行选择的驱动因素。应对气候变化的斗争以搭便车的逻辑为特征,这种情况使平衡向城市背景下的适应战略倾斜,而不利于缓解。这一假设是通过对现有城市气候战略文献的回顾来检验的。这项研究表明,与直觉相反,到目前为止,在城市气候战略中,缓解优先于适应。本文探讨了对这种看似矛盾的情况的解释。我们认为,这种解释很大程度上与城市气候战略的体制背景有关,特别是城市的决策能力,或者它们参与了促进缓解而非适应的国际网络。其他解释依赖于采取缓解或适应措施的成本/效益影响,比如城市气候战略的附带地方/私人利益,缓解措施往往比适应措施更大。另一项发现是,没有系统的规划规定必须在缓解和适应战略之间做出选择,因为它们在某些情况下是互补的,提供了共同的好处。
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引用次数: 0
China’s Revolutionary Transition towards Carbon Neutrality and Prevention of Relevant Risks 中国向碳中和的革命性转型及其风险防范
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500033
J. Pan, Yushan Li, Ying Zhang, Zhixuan Ji
Achieving carbon neutrality requires the fundamental transformation of the development paradigm, the disruptive technologies. With efficiency-improving technologies and carbon removal technologies alone, it is possible to move further towards low carbon but hard to achieve carbon neutrality. It can only be realized through thorough decoupling from fossil energy with disruptive technologies. This revolution aiming at carbon neutrality has not only made new ground in the energy market, but also the central task which is to revolutionize zero-carbon energy production and consumption through underlying changes to the relations of production and mode of distribution, thereby pushing forward the fundamental transformation of social development paradigm.
实现碳中和需要从根本上转变发展模式,即颠覆性技术。仅凭高效的技术和除碳技术,就有可能进一步实现低碳,但很难实现碳中和。只有通过颠覆性技术与化石能源彻底脱钩,才能实现这一目标。这场以碳中和为目标的革命不仅在能源市场上开辟了新的领域,而且其中心任务是通过生产关系和分配方式的根本改变,彻底改变零碳能源生产和消费,从而推动社会发展范式的根本转变。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Growth, Governance and CO2 Emissions in West Africa 西非的经济增长、治理和二氧化碳排放
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-17 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500021
I. Ifelunini, U. Ekpo, S. A. Agbutun, O. W. Arazu, C. Ugwu, Nnabuike Osademe, O. F. Asogwa
Despite being the regions with the least levels of carbon emissions in the world, African countries are facing unique challenges on climate change, increased carbon emission levels and the need for environmental governance improvement. This study, therefore, examined the implications of economic growth and governance on CO2 emissions in West Africa. Specifically, the study investigated the role of governance in moderating the effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions in West Africa. The study utilized data for 16 West African countries from 2000 to 2020 in an unbalanced panel data framework. Empirical analyses were conducted using the Instrumental Variable Fixed Effects estimator with Driscoll and Kraay Standard Errors, as well as the Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression in order to account for serial correlation, endogeneity and conditional heteroskedasticity. The following conclusions were drawn from the results. First, economic growth significantly increases CO2 emissions in the region with the Environmental Kuznet Curve hypothesis present. Second, the quantile regression estimates reveal that the effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions is higher in countries where the initial level of carbon emissions is considerably high. Third, the results further show that in the presence of improved governance quality, economic growth does not significantly influence CO2 emissions in the region. Fourth, political stability and regulatory quality were the only indicators of governance that significantly impacted environmental pollution in the region. Finally, we found that other factors such as trade, urbanization, and renewable energy also significantly influenced CO2 emissions in the region. The study concludes by highlighting the importance of governance in moderating the effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions, as well as the importance of heterogeneous analysis for understanding the dynamism in economic relationships.
尽管非洲国家是世界上碳排放水平最低的地区,但它们在气候变化、碳排放水平上升和环境治理改善方面面临着独特的挑战。因此,这项研究考察了西非经济增长和治理对二氧化碳排放的影响。具体而言,该研究调查了治理在调节西非经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响方面的作用。该研究在一个不平衡的面板数据框架中使用了2000年至2020年16个西非国家的数据。使用具有Driscoll和Kraay标准误差的工具变量固定效应估计器以及工具变量分位数回归进行实证分析,以考虑序列相关性、内生性和条件异方差。从结果中得出以下结论。首先,在环境库兹涅特曲线假设存在的情况下,经济增长显著增加了该地区的二氧化碳排放量。其次,分位数回归估计表明,在碳排放初始水平相当高的国家,经济增长对二氧化碳排放的影响更大。第三,研究结果进一步表明,在治理质量提高的情况下,经济增长不会对该地区的二氧化碳排放产生显著影响。第四,政治稳定和监管质量是对该地区环境污染产生重大影响的唯一治理指标。最后,我们发现贸易、城市化和可再生能源等其他因素也显著影响了该地区的二氧化碳排放。该研究最后强调了治理在调节经济增长对二氧化碳排放的影响方面的重要性,以及异质分析在理解经济关系动态方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
An Assessment of Resilience Capacities in Local Disaster Management: A Case Study of Tabriz, Iran 地方灾害管理抗灾能力评估:以伊朗大不里士为例
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.1142/s234574812350001x
A. Asadi
Regarding the approach of reducing risks of settlements, a system is considered to be resilient if it can address temporary and permanent risks and adapt itself to rapidly changing conditions without losing its functionality. To this end, a dynamic management approach on a local scale is needed for realizing resilience. Due to the importance of local management in improving resilience in cities, this study aims to assess the resilience capacity of the local risk management in terms of exposure to various crises in Tabriz, Iran. The findings in this study show that integrity and coordination in decision- or policy-making, enhancement of organizational and local capacities, and confrontation or rehabilitation approaches in critical conditions and after that are not desirable in Tabriz. Also, the centralized and top-down approaches lead to no proper local planning and management that can facilitate the resilience measures. In light of no spatial equilibrium in Tabriz and the inefficiency of conventional planning and management systems, technocrat-oriented and top-down, changing the management practices and emphasizing the local and bottom-up approach are necessary for the thorough understanding of facilities and limitations and implementation of realistic planning.
关于减少定居点风险的方法,如果一个系统能够解决临时和永久性风险,并在不丧失功能的情况下适应快速变化的条件,那么它就被认为是有弹性的。为此,需要一种地方规模的动态管理方法来实现复原力。鉴于地方管理在提高城市抵御能力方面的重要性,本研究旨在评估伊朗大不里士地方风险管理在应对各种危机方面的抵御能力。这项研究的结果表明,在大不里士,决策或决策的完整性和协调性、组织和地方能力的提高,以及在关键条件下和之后的对抗或恢复方法都是不可取的。此外,集中和自上而下的方法导致没有适当的地方规划和管理来促进恢复力措施。鉴于大不里士没有空间平衡,传统规划和管理系统效率低下,有必要以技术官僚为导向,自上而下,改变管理做法,强调地方和自下而上的方法,以彻底了解设施和限制,并实施现实规划。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the Nature and Rationale of Carbon Neutrality 理解碳中和的本质和基本原理
Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500124
Jiahua PAN, Tianhong SUN
To achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to grasp the essence of carbon neutrality. This paper looks into a few fundamental issues of carbon neutrality, and provides an in-depth analysis from the perspectives of environmental sustainability, technological innovation, economic viability, energy security, and international cooperation. It is shown that efforts for carbon neutrality need to focus on the key carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Fossil energy is considered to play a role as a short-term “ballast stone”, but its attributes decide that it can hardly lead to a sustainable future, and its phasing-out is inevitable. Disruptive zero-carbon energy production and revolutionary technological innovation in its consumption are accelerating that phasing-out process; the zero-carbon-oriented carbon neutrality goal is growing more resilient to market headwinds and releasing momentum for high-quality development. Carbon capture and carbon sinks are indispensable, but they are unable to provide a satisfactory path to carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality requires substantial capital investment, which can be provided by zero-carbon products with ever-increasing market competitiveness. Investment in high carbon fossil fuel industry can be risky. High carbon lock-in not only increases the difficulty of carbon neutrality, but also intensifies the risk of energy security, and it is difficult to avoid the risk of market crowding-out, resulting in huge amounts of capital waste. Consequently, decarbonization is the trend of the times, giving an edge on seeking international justice and a louder voice in the international community, and also the focus of market competitiveness. However, the target year for carbon neutrality in China is before 2060, indicating that carbon neutrality is not a short-term goal. Therefore, it is impossible and unnecessary to have it realized overnight. The opportunity of carbon neutrality should be well taken for quality growth of the economy and enhancement of people’s well-being. Carbon neutrality is a long-term process which calls for thorough plans and step-by-step actions. It is also evident that along with energy revolution, carbon neutrality also brings revolutionary transformation of relations of production and development paradigm.
要实现碳中和,就必须把握碳中和的本质。本文探讨了碳中和的几个基本问题,并从环境可持续性、技术创新、经济可行性、能源安全和国际合作等方面进行了深入分析。研究表明,碳中和的努力需要集中在化石燃料燃烧产生的关键二氧化碳(CO 2)排放上。化石能源被认为是短期的“压舱石”,但它的属性决定了它很难带来可持续的未来,它的逐步淘汰是不可避免的。颠覆性的零碳能源生产及其消费中的革命性技术创新正在加速这一逐步淘汰进程;以零碳为导向的碳中和目标抵御市场逆风的能力增强,为高质量发展释放动力。碳捕获和碳汇是不可或缺的,但它们无法提供一条令人满意的碳中和之路。碳中和需要大量的资本投入,这可以通过市场竞争力不断增强的零碳产品来提供。投资高碳化石燃料行业是有风险的。高碳锁定不仅增加了碳中和的难度,也加剧了能源安全的风险,难以避免市场挤出的风险,造成巨额的资金浪费。因此,“去碳化”是大势所趋,是在国际上伸张正义的优势,是在国际上发出更大声音的优势,也是增强市场竞争力的重点。然而,中国碳中和的目标年份是在2060年之前,这表明碳中和不是一个短期目标。因此,一夜之间实现它是不可能的,也没有必要。应充分利用碳中和的机会,促进经济的高质量增长和人民福祉的提高。碳中和是一个长期的过程,需要周密的计划和逐步的行动。碳中和在能源革命的同时,也带来了生产关系和发展模式的革命性转变。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling Global and Local Aspects of Spatial Structure Explicitly in Land-Use Optimization: The Case of Mek’ele City, Ethiopia 土地利用优化中空间结构的全局和局部建模:以埃塞俄比亚Mek’ele市为例
Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748123500112
Ashenafi MEHARI, Paolo Vincenzo GENOVESE
Urban spatial structure remains the center of quest and modeling. The decentralization concept is among the leading literature discourses that guide spatial analyses. In line with the decentralization discourse, the application of land-use optimization as a modeling method has grown significantly. Despite decentralization dominating the contemporary spatial analysis literature, no study so far explicitly declares an end to the centers (and subcenters). While centers (and subcenters) are alive, the land-use optimization has never taken this macro-morphological structure into consideration. This case study frames land-use optimization within the agglomeration and decentralization concepts based on the view that no single conceptual framework addresses spatial analysis sufficiently. On a theoretical level, the link is between coarse morphological assumption (basis of economic geography) and decentralization (basis of sustainable built environment). The paper blends these dual theories, one governing urban macro-morphological structures and the other governing decentralization literature. On a methodological modeling level, it blends centers and other discretized uses. Optimizing four objectives across the complete centralization through multiple centers of gravity to complete the decentralization of urban spatial structures applying Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, the case study findings justify the importance of explicit modeling of the macro-morphological element. It has been observed that multicenter urban forms perform well above both the single center and the dispersed scenarios. It is, therefore, argued that an appropriate approach to land-use optimization is modeling both the macro-spatial element and fine spatial elements. The result further indicates that local land-use planning regulations place the structure of city in a suboptimal state.
城市空间结构仍然是探索和建模的中心。去中心化概念是指导空间分析的主要文学话语之一。与分权话语相一致,土地利用优化作为一种建模方法的应用显著增长。尽管去中心化在当代空间分析文献中占据主导地位,但迄今为止还没有研究明确宣布中心(和副中心)的终结。虽然中心(和亚中心)是有生命的,但土地利用优化从未考虑过这种宏观形态结构。本案例研究基于没有单一概念框架能够充分解决空间分析的观点,在集聚和分散概念中构建土地利用优化。在理论层面上,这种联系存在于粗略的形态假设(经济地理学的基础)和分散化(可持续建筑环境的基础)之间。本文将这两种理论融合在一起,一种是对城市宏观形态结构的理论,另一种是对分权文献的理论。在方法论的建模水平上,它混合了中心和其他离散的用途。应用非支配排序遗传算法对城市空间结构通过多个重心实现完全集中化的四个目标进行优化,结果证明了宏观形态要素显式建模的重要性。研究发现,多中心的城市形态表现优于单中心和分散的城市形态。因此,土地利用优化应同时考虑宏观空间要素和微观空间要素。结果进一步表明,地方土地利用规划法规使城市结构处于次优状态。
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引用次数: 1
Development Zones and Firm Innovation: Evidence from Shanghai 开发区与企业创新:来自上海的证据
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748122500282
Hanzhen Ouyang, Chang Li, Guangwei Liu, Mingxin Zhang, Brice Tseen Fu Lee
A majority of Chinese high-tech firms were founded in development zones established by the Chinese government. It is necessary to identify the impacts of development zones on firms’ innovation (hereinafter referred to as “innovation effects”) as well as the possible knowledge spillover of development zones. Different types of zones, due to their different administrative levels and original purposes of establishment, may have different innovation effects. In this paper, the innovation effects of the Shanghai development zones are identified by using the geographic range of Shanghai development zones as well as geographic coordinates, patents, and research and development (R&D) data of manufacturing firms. The research results robustly show that there are significant and positive innovation effects of development zones. Through the use of regression analysis and by using firm data on both sides of zone boundaries, we observe knowledge spillovers. We also test a possible mechanism for the innovation effects of development zones.
中国大多数高科技企业都是在中国政府设立的开发区成立的。有必要确定开发区对企业创新的影响(以下简称“创新效应”)以及开发区可能产生的知识溢出。不同类型的园区,由于其行政级别和设立初衷的不同,其创新效果也可能不同。本文利用上海开发区的地理范围、地理坐标、专利和制造业企业的研发数据,对上海开发区的创新效应进行了识别。研究结果有力地表明,开发区存在显著的正向创新效应。通过回归分析和利用区域边界两侧的企业数据,我们观察到知识溢出。并对开发区创新效应的可能机制进行了检验。
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引用次数: 0
Framework for Effective Urban Development Partnership in Affordable Housing in Egypt 埃及经济适用房有效城市发展伙伴关系框架
IF 1.4 Q3 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2345748122500270
F. EL-BIALY
The government’s vision is oriented towards reforming the urban map and increasing the urban communities’ ability to face current and future urban development challenges. However, it is becoming increasingly aware that it cannot achieve this by acting alone. This in turn poses an important question about good urban governance, and appropriate management mechanisms that may enable the achievement of the strategic goals. In this context, the government adopted a “National Housing Strategy”, which aims to transfer the current situation of the housing sector in Egypt and encourage the private sector to provide more diversity of patterns of holdings in this sector. However, to what extent the government can develop this approach into an effective public–private partnership framework that ensures a strong private sector response in the delivery of affordable housing is still unclear. Accordingly, this research aims to develop a conceptual framework to guide decision-makers on how the state can apply urban development partnership as an integrated approach to better development of affordable housing in Egypt.
政府的愿景是改革城市地图,提高城市社区面对当前和未来城市发展挑战的能力。然而,它越来越意识到,它不能单独行动来实现这一目标。这反过来又提出了一个重要的问题,即良好的城市管理和可能实现战略目标的适当管理机制。在此背景下,政府通过了一项“国家住房战略”,旨在改变埃及住房部门的现状,并鼓励私营部门在该部门提供更多样化的控股模式。然而,政府能在多大程度上将这种方法发展成一个有效的公私伙伴关系框架,以确保私营部门在提供负担得起的住房方面做出强有力的反应,目前仍不清楚。因此,本研究旨在制定一个概念框架,指导决策者如何将城市发展伙伴关系作为一种综合方法,更好地发展埃及的经济适用房。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies
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