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Decomposition of the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt: Evidence from the ARDL Model 埃及实际汇率失调来源的分解:来自ARDL模型的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.58
R. Hosni
This paper examines the behavior of the real exchange rate in Egypt over the period 1965–2018 by attempting to pursue three interrelated purposes. The first is to investigate the extent of deviations between the actual exchange rate and its equilibrium level and illustrate the magnitude of any currency misalignments. The second is to search for the different phases of over- and undervaluation of the local currency and explain the accompanying economic policies and/or factors leading to them. The third and ultimate purpose is to explore the role of transitory and permanent factors in deviating the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium level. Understanding these factors should help in the design of economic policies directed to address the misalignment of the local currency. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach is used and conducted for both the bilateral and effective real exchange rates to achieve these three purposes during the selected period. To derive the equilibrium exchange rate estimate, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach is adopted. The findings reveal that the Egyptian pound was misaligned from its equilibrium value during most of the examined period. The results confirm the relative importance of the terms of trade and degree of openness variables in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate in Egypt followed by investment ratio and government consumption variables. The local currency witnessed a recent phase of overvaluation, which began in 2009, until the free float of the local currency in November 2016, after which, the Egyptian pound was found to have experienced a new phase of undervaluation till the end of the period examined. The findings show a considerable relative impact of fundamental-based factors over a prolonged period spanning from 1986 to 2003 and at the end of the period examined as well. Moreover, the documented results lend general support to the fact that both permanent or fundamental-based factors and short-run shocks prove to be important influential factors impacting currency misalignment in Egypt.
本文通过试图追求三个相互关联的目的,考察了1965年至2018年期间埃及实际汇率的行为。首先是调查实际汇率与其均衡水平之间的偏差程度,并说明任何货币失调的程度。二是寻找本币高估和低估的不同阶段,并解释导致这些阶段的相关经济政策和/或因素。第三,也是最终目的是探讨短期和永久性因素在实际实际汇率偏离均衡水平中的作用。了解这些因素应该有助于设计旨在解决本币失调的经济政策。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束检验方法对双边汇率和有效实际汇率进行检验,以在选定的时期内实现这三个目的。为了得到均衡汇率的估计,采用了行为均衡汇率方法。调查结果显示,在大部分被调查的时期,埃及镑偏离了它的平衡值。结果证实了贸易条件和开放程度变量在决定埃及均衡实际汇率中的相对重要性,其次是投资比率和政府消费变量。从2009年开始,当地货币经历了最近的高估阶段,直到2016年11月当地货币自由浮动,之后,埃及镑被发现经历了一个新的低估阶段,直到调查期间结束。研究结果显示,在1986年至2003年的较长时期内,以及在研究结束时,基本面因素的相对影响相当大。此外,记录的结果普遍支持这样一个事实,即永久性或基本面因素和短期冲击都证明是影响埃及货币失调的重要影响因素。
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引用次数: 2
Does Emigration Hurt the Economy? Evidence from Lithuania 移民会伤害经济吗?来自立陶宛的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.64
Gindrute Kasnauskiene, Remigijus Kavalnis
This study explores the economic impact of population emigration with special reference to the case of Lithuania. For this reason, we developed a SVAR model and applied related IRF and FEVD tools using quarterly data for the period of 2001-2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in emigration is related to lower unemployment. It is also found that the increased emigration is linked to higher real wage growth but with a lower confidence interval. Moreover, our estimates suggest that international out-migration increases real GDP growth in the short term, with no significant effects in the long run perspective. Finally, we found that most of the emigrants-to-be were inactive for a long term prior to departure, which offers a new look into the consequences of Lithuanian emigration, suggesting that the economic losses of emigration could be overstated. This study contributes to the knowledge about the impact of emigration on the economy and specifies directions for further studies in the field.
本研究探讨了人口移民的经济影响,特别是以立陶宛为例。因此,我们开发了SVAR模型,并使用2001-2020年的季度数据应用了相关的IRF和FEVD工具。我们的研究结果表明,移民的积极冲击与失业率的降低有关。研究还发现,移民人数的增加与较高的实际工资增长有关,但置信区间较低。此外,我们的估计表明,国际移民在短期内增加了实际GDP增长,从长远来看没有显著影响。最后,我们发现,大多数准移民在离开前长期不活跃,这为立陶宛移民的后果提供了新的视角,表明移民的经济损失可能被夸大了。这项研究有助于了解移民对经济的影响,并为该领域的进一步研究指明了方向。
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引用次数: 1
Entrepreneurship and Small Island Economies 创业与小岛屿经济
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.63
P. Pounder, N. Gopal
Over the past two decades, the study of entrepreneurship and its importance to the economy has increased in appeal to academics, practitioners and governments. This study explores entrepreneurship in small island economies within regions based on Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) and Established Business Ownership (EBO) as observed in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) dataset. This research uses the pooled regression model to study the impact of TEA and EBO on economic growth. The findings highlight that new venture creation is a driver that improves gross domestic product (GDP); however, there are significant differences across SIDS in the orientation of TEA and EBO that suggest that other contextual issues like culture, education system, and entrepreneurial support elements influence entrepreneurial behaviour across regions as well. The more advanced of these nations like Singapore and Puerto Rico benefit from knowledge networks and scientific mobility, while the smaller economies in the Caribbean and Pacific Region show less openness to pursuing entrepreneurial endeavours. These findings provide a foundation for further research on varying types of combinations of both economic factors and contextual differences that lend to the transitioning process towards an emerging economy. 
在过去的二十年里,对企业家精神及其对经济的重要性的研究对学者、从业者和政府的吸引力越来越大。本研究基于全球创业监测(GEM)数据集中观察到的总创业活动(TEA)和已建立企业所有权(EBO),探讨了区域内小岛屿经济体的创业精神。本文采用混合回归模型研究TEA和EBO对经济增长的影响。研究结果强调,新创企业是提高国内生产总值(GDP)的驱动力;然而,小岛屿发展中国家在TEA和EBO的取向方面存在显著差异,这表明文化、教育制度和创业支持因素等其他背景问题也影响着各区域的创业行为。新加坡和波多黎各等较发达的国家受益于知识网络和科学流动,而加勒比和太平洋地区较小的经济体对追求创业努力的开放程度较低。这些发现为进一步研究经济因素和背景差异的不同类型组合提供了基础,这些组合有助于向新兴经济体过渡。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Currency Misalignment on Trade Balance of Emerging Market Economies 货币失调对新兴市场经济体贸易平衡的影响
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.57
Abdullahil Mamun,Emrah Eray Akça,Harun Bal
This study is an attempt to examine the impact of currency misalignment on the trade balance of emerging market economies from 1980 through 2016. It firstly measures the equilibrium RER and corresponding misalignment series of 21 EMEs separately adopting a single equation approach and then includes them in the trade regression together with undervaluation and overvaluation to estimate the dynamic relationship between the trade balance and real exchange rate misalignment employing the system generalized method of moment estimation approach. The study suggests that, being a composite series of undervaluation and overvaluation, higher real exchange rate misalignment helps recover trade imbalances. It also identifies that undervaluation improves trade balance, while overvaluation cuts it down. The study identifies that the misalignment series of RER for most of the EMEs are substantially dominated by overvaluation episodes, and hence the opposing impact of undervaluation and currency misalignment on the trade balance of EMEs is not surprising. From the policy perspective, competitiveness achieved through currency movements helps emerging market economies not only to improve trade balance but also to withstand vulnerability that arises from huge external borrowings creating a strong external payment position.
本研究试图检验1980年至2016年货币失调对新兴市场经济体贸易平衡的影响。首先采用单方程方法分别测量21个新兴市场经济体的均衡RER和相应的失调序列,然后将其与低估和高估一起纳入贸易回归,采用系统广义矩估计方法估计贸易平衡与实际汇率失调之间的动态关系。该研究表明,作为一系列低估和高估的复合因素,实际汇率偏差的加剧有助于恢复贸易失衡。它还指出,低估会改善贸易平衡,而高估则会削弱贸易平衡。研究发现,大多数新兴市场经济体的汇率失调系列基本上由高估事件主导,因此低估和货币失调对新兴市场经济体贸易平衡的相反影响并不令人惊讶。从政策角度来看,通过汇率变动获得的竞争力不仅有助于新兴市场经济体改善贸易平衡,还有助于抵御因巨额外部借款而产生的脆弱性,从而创造强劲的外部支付状况。
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引用次数: 0
Tax Planning, Corporate Governance and Financial Performance of Selected Quoted Non-Financial Companies in Nigeria (2007–2018) 尼日利亚非金融类上市公司税收筹划、公司治理和财务绩效分析(2007-2018)
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.59
John Olayiwola,Stephanie Okoro
This study examines the interactive effect of tax planning and corporate governance on the financial performance of 50 non-financial quoted companies in Nigeria between 2007 and 2018. The study sample that covers 9 sectors was selected purposively through stratified random sampling. Data used were collected from the audited annual reports and accounts of selected quoted companies in Nigeria and fact books published by the Nigeria Stock Exchange. A system GMM was employed to estimate the dynamic models, and results show that ownership structure (OS) and capital intensity (CI) exerted a significant and positive impact on the returns on assets. This implies that OS plays a significant role to ensure that CI triggers an increase in the return on assets of the quoted Nigerian companies. However, board diversity and thin capitalization wielded a significant and negative influence on return on assets. This study thus recommends that companies should put in place a strong corporate governance mechanism that will monitor, check and balance tax planning activities and strategies adopted by the management of quoted companies in Nigeria.
本研究考察了2007年至2018年间尼日利亚50家非金融类上市公司的税务筹划和公司治理对财务绩效的互动影响。采用分层随机抽样的方法,有目的地选取了涵盖9个行业的研究样本。所使用的数据收集自经审计的年度报告和尼日利亚选定上市公司的账目以及尼日利亚证券交易所出版的事实手册。采用系统GMM对动态模型进行估计,结果表明股权结构(OS)和资本密集度(CI)对资产收益率具有显著的正向影响。这意味着操作系统在确保CI触发尼日利亚上市公司资产回报率的增加方面发挥着重要作用。然而,董事会多元化和资本稀薄对资产回报率产生了显著的负面影响。因此,本研究建议公司应建立强有力的公司治理机制,以监督、检查和平衡尼日利亚上市公司管理层采用的税收筹划活动和战略。
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引用次数: 0
Is Bitcoin Price Driven by Macro-financial Factors and Liquidity? A Global Consumer Survey Empirical Study 比特币价格是由宏观金融因素和流动性驱动的吗?全球消费者调查实证研究
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.62
S. A. H. Havidz, Viendya Ervina Karman, I. Y. Mambea
This research aims to utilize macro-financial and liquidity elements as the factors that may affect the price of Bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. The macro-financial factors analyzed in this study were foreign exchange, stock market index, interest rates, and gold, while liquidity ratio is the internal factor. This study applied a fixed-effect model (FEM) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on gathered weekly data from 1 January 2017 to 29 December 2019 from 18 countries with the total of 2,826 observations. The analysis revealed that US Dollar amplifies Bitcoin trading; an increase in interest rate will decrease investors’ intention to invest in Bitcoin as a speculative asset, and gold could replace Bitcoin as a substitute asset. Moreover, Bitcoin was found to be highly liquid, which attracts many investors, while the stock market index proved to be insignificant.
本研究旨在利用宏观金融和流动性因素作为可能影响比特币作为市值最大的加密货币价格的因素。本研究分析的宏观金融因素是外汇、股市指数、利率和黄金,而流动性比率是内部因素。本研究应用固定效应模型(FEM)和广义矩量法(GMM)对2017年1月1日至2019年12月29日来自18个国家的每周数据进行了收集,共有2826次观测。分析显示,美元放大了比特币交易;加息将降低投资者将比特币作为投机资产进行投资的意愿,黄金可能取代比特币作为替代资产。此外,比特币的流动性很高,吸引了许多投资者,而股市指数被证明微不足道。
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引用次数: 4
Economic Consequences of Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Behaviour Covid-19大流行的经济后果:汇率行为分析
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.56
Maheswar Sethi,Sakti Ranjan Dash,Rabindra Kumar Swain,Seema Das
This paper examines the effect of Covid-19 on currency exchange rate behaviour by taking a sample of 37 countries over a period from 4th January 2020 to 30th April 2021. Three variables, such as daily confirmed cases, daily deaths, and the world pandemic uncertainty index (WPUI), are taken as the measure of Covid-19. By applying fixed-effect regression, the study documents that the exchange rate behaves positively to the Covid-19 outbreak, particularly to daily confirmed cases and daily deaths, which implies that the value of other currencies against the US dollar has been depreciated. However, the impact of WPUI is insignificant. On studying the time-varying impact of the pandemic, the study reveals that the Covid-19 has an asymmetric impact on exchange rate over different time frames. Further, it is observed that though daily confirmed cases and daily deaths show a uniform effect, WPUI puts an asymmetric effect on the exchange rate owing to the nature of economies.
本文以2020年1月4日至2021年4月30日期间的37个国家为样本,研究了Covid-19对货币汇率行为的影响。以每日确诊病例数、每日死亡病例数和世界大流行不确定性指数(WPUI) 3个变量作为衡量Covid-19的指标。通过应用固定效应回归,该研究证明,汇率对新冠肺炎疫情的影响是积极的,特别是对每日确诊病例和每日死亡病例的影响,这意味着其他货币对美元的价值已经贬值。然而,WPUI的影响是微不足道的。在研究大流行的时变影响时,研究表明,在不同的时间框架内,新冠肺炎对汇率的影响是不对称的。此外,可以观察到,虽然每日确诊病例和每日死亡人数显示出统一的影响,但由于经济的性质,WPUI对汇率产生了不对称的影响。
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This paper examines the effect of Covid-19 on currency exchange rate behaviour by taking a sample of 37 countries over a period from 4th January 2020 to 30th April 2021. Three variables, such as daily confirmed cases, daily deaths, and the world pandemic uncertainty index (WPUI), are taken as the measure of Covid-19. By applying fixed-effect regression, the study documents that the exchange rate behaves positively to the Covid-19 outbreak, particularly to daily confirmed cases and daily deaths, which implies that the value of other currencies against the US dollar has been depreciated. However, the impact of WPUI is insignificant. On studying the time-varying impact of the pandemic, the study reveals that the Covid-19 has an asymmetric impact on exchange rate over different time frames. Further, it is observed that though daily confirmed cases and daily deaths show a uniform effect, WPUI puts an asymmetric effect on the exchange rate owing to the nature of economies.


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引用次数: 0
Linking the Robo-advisors Phenomenon and Behavioural Biases in Investment Management: An Interdisciplinary Literature Review and Research Agenda 将机器人顾问现象与投资管理中的行为偏见联系起来:跨学科文献综述和研究议程
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.65
Nomeda Lisauskiene, Valdone Darskuviene
Technological advancements bring continuous changes into the investment industry. The paper aims to provide insights on future research agenda based on a review of the current stance of research on the links between the Robo-advisors phenomenon and behavioural biases of individual investors. A qualitative investigation method has been applied for literature review on Robo-advisors and their impact on behavioural biases. The key findings indicate that Robo-advisors can help users to make better informed and less biased decisions. However, Robo-advisors activate the investors’ automatic system processes. The resulting passive investment approach could lead to alienation of the investors from the stock market, decreasing their understanding of the investment process that could widen a gap between different clusters of investors. The paper makes several contributions to the literature. First, it provides arguments on why a dual process theoretical framework in the relationship between financial advisory and investment behavioural biases is applicable. Second, it studies the Robo-advisor phenomenon and proposes a comprehensive definition of Robo-advisors. Third, the literature review suggests drivers of the Robo-advisors effect on the changes of behavioural biases as a future research direction.
技术进步给投资行业带来了持续的变化。本文旨在通过对机器人顾问现象与个人投资者行为偏见之间联系的研究现状的回顾,为未来的研究议程提供见解。采用定性调查方法对机器人顾问及其对行为偏见的影响进行了文献综述。关键发现表明,机器人顾问可以帮助用户做出更明智、更少偏见的决策。然而,机器人顾问激活了投资者的自动系统流程。由此产生的被动投资方法可能导致投资者与股票市场疏远,降低他们对投资过程的理解,从而扩大不同投资者群体之间的差距。这篇论文对文学有几点贡献。首先,它提供了关于为什么财务咨询和投资行为偏见之间关系的双过程理论框架适用的论点。其次,研究了机器人顾问现象,提出了机器人顾问的全面定义。第三,文献综述表明,机器人顾问的驱动因素对行为偏见的变化的影响是未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 1
Consumer Entitlement Inventory: A Scale Extension and Application to the Vietnamese Retail Context 消费者权益清单:越南零售业的规模扩展与应用
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.15388/omee.2021.12.66
Si Van Nguyen, M. Võ
The consumer entitlement (CE) construct is a key variable in the exchange process in retail environments. The original Consumer Entitlement Inventory (CEI) was developed and applied within Western cultural boundaries. The main contribution of this study is the extension of the original CEI to better fit the Vietnamese context and to demonstrate its applicability in the context of an emerging economy with a Confucian culture. The study also contributes to expanding the range of identified boycott motives in the literature and clarifying their mechanism via social exchange theory. The extended CEI scale was tested using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, using a sample of 603 respondents. Qualitative and quantitative research results show that the extended CEI has two dimensions, namely intransigence, and demand and distinction, with adequate content, reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. This study also aimed to apply the extended CEI to an exploration of the relationship between CE and willingness to boycott. Research results from another independent study with 450 respondents using a structural equation model confirmed the positive relationship between CE and willingness to boycott. In addition, theoretical implications are discussed.
消费者权利(CE)结构是零售环境中交换过程中的一个关键变量。最初的消费者权利清单(CEI)是在西方文化范围内开发和应用的。本研究的主要贡献在于扩展了原始的CEI,以更好地适应越南的背景,并证明其在具有儒家文化的新兴经济体背景下的适用性。该研究还有助于扩大文献中已确定的抵制动机的范围,并通过社会交换理论阐明其机制。采用探索性因子分析和验证性因子分析对扩展的CEI量表进行检验,样本为603名受访者。定性和定量研究结果表明,扩展的CEI具有不妥协、需求和区分两个维度,内容充足、信度、收敛效度和判别效度。本研究亦旨在运用扩展的CEI来探讨CE与抵制意愿之间的关系。另一项独立研究使用结构方程模型对450名受访者进行了研究,结果证实了CE与抵制意愿之间的正相关关系。此外,本文还讨论了理论意义。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Algerian Economy: Application of Okun’s Law during 1991–2019 阿尔及利亚经济增长与失业率之间的关系:1991年至2019年奥肯定律的应用
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.15388/OMEE.2021.12.48
Bilal Louail, Djamel Benarous
This paper aims to examine the Algerian economy by applying Okun’s law to study the impact of real GDP on unemployment rates and examine the impact of labour market protection policies on Okun’s coefficients. The annual data on the Algerian economy for the period 1991–2019 were used. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique model was used in conjunction with the gap version for Okun’s coefficients. The empirical results show that Okun’s law operates in Algeria’s economy. Coefficients estimated using the gap version led to the conclusion that there was a negative and significant impact of the GDP gap on unemployment rates. Though there was a decline in unemployment as GDP increased, the rise in employment was very weak for each 1% increase in the GDP. These findings should be of significant interest to regulators and policymakers in the Algerian economy, practitioners and academic researchers, international and national investors, managers and any other groups interested in the labour market in the Algerian economy and the labour markets of other developing economies. The paper provides the real GDP’s effect on unemployment rates in Algeria by releasing the gap version for Okun’s coefficient. Also, it provides evidence that increased labour market protection mitigates the adverse effects of a decrease in output growth rate on employment.
本文旨在通过应用奥肯定律研究实际GDP对失业率的影响,并考察劳动力市场保护政策对奥肯系数的影响,来检验阿尔及利亚经济。使用了1991年至2019年期间阿尔及利亚经济的年度数据。自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验技术模型与Okun系数的gap版本一起使用。实证结果表明,奥肯定律在阿尔及利亚经济中起作用。使用缺口版本估计的系数得出的结论是,国内生产总值缺口对失业率产生了负面和重大影响。尽管失业率随着GDP的增长而下降,但GDP每增长1%,就业率的增长就非常微弱。阿尔及利亚经济监管机构和政策制定者、从业者和学术研究人员、国际和国内投资者、管理人员以及对阿尔及利亚经济劳动力市场和其他发展中经济体劳动力市场感兴趣的任何其他群体都应该对这些发现感兴趣。本文通过发布奥肯系数的缺口版本,提供了阿尔及利亚实际GDP对失业率的影响。此外,它还提供了证据,证明加强劳动力市场保护可以缓解产出增长率下降对就业的不利影响。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies
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