China, located in the northwestern Pacific, is severely affected by typhoon, and typhoon damage to light steel buildings cause substantial economic losses in China. Field surveys of typhoon damage in Dalian had revealed that light steel building has the high risk of typhoon disasters. The goal of this study is to describe the framework of risk management of typhoon disaster to light steel building, including risk identification, risk analysis, and risk assessment and risk control. This paper reviewed the previous study of risk management, and identified three components of a typhoon hazard to light steel buildings. Then summarized and analyzed several vulnerability models as a reference for developing typhoon disaster vulnerability curves. Finally, the author puts forward some proposals for risk control. The research will be valuable to disaster mitigation effectively and will be useful to property owners, construction units, decision maker and insurance companies to manage typhoon disasters.
{"title":"Integrated Risk Management of Typhoon Disaster to Light Steel Building","authors":"Y. Jin, Qingshan Yang, Qi Li","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.67","url":null,"abstract":"China, located in the northwestern Pacific, is severely affected by typhoon, and typhoon damage to light steel buildings cause substantial economic losses in China. Field surveys of typhoon damage in Dalian had revealed that light steel building has the high risk of typhoon disasters. The goal of this study is to describe the framework of risk management of typhoon disaster to light steel building, including risk identification, risk analysis, and risk assessment and risk control. This paper reviewed the previous study of risk management, and identified three components of a typhoon hazard to light steel buildings. Then summarized and analyzed several vulnerability models as a reference for developing typhoon disaster vulnerability curves. Finally, the author puts forward some proposals for risk control. The research will be valuable to disaster mitigation effectively and will be useful to property owners, construction units, decision maker and insurance companies to manage typhoon disasters.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134224426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper deals with load optimal dispatching among power plant units in the context of electric power market competition environment. The multi-agent evolutionary algorithm (MAEA) is specially useful in load optimal dispatching, the model of which is set up based on characteristic curve of the generator coal consumption approached by quadratic function. In particular, the following restraints are considered: power balance, spinning reserve, upper and lower limit, unitpsilas suspending times, minimum continuous suspending time and the minimum continuous running time, and power response speed. The proposed MAEA used in the load optimal dispatching among power plant units for the first time is proved to be feasible and efficient in the simulation result of the example.
{"title":"Application of Multi-agent Evolutionary Algorithm for Load Optimal Dispatching among Power Plant Units","authors":"G. Hou, Jianhua Zhang, Xin Yang, B. Zhou","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.89","url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with load optimal dispatching among power plant units in the context of electric power market competition environment. The multi-agent evolutionary algorithm (MAEA) is specially useful in load optimal dispatching, the model of which is set up based on characteristic curve of the generator coal consumption approached by quadratic function. In particular, the following restraints are considered: power balance, spinning reserve, upper and lower limit, unitpsilas suspending times, minimum continuous suspending time and the minimum continuous running time, and power response speed. The proposed MAEA used in the load optimal dispatching among power plant units for the first time is proved to be feasible and efficient in the simulation result of the example.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"359 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134501006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the logistics outsourcing more widely used, a growing number of third-party logistics (TPL) were introduced to the VMI (Vendor-managed Inventory) implementation strategy, in this mode, how to effectively integrate the logistics and information flow in the supply chain has become an important research topic. Due to the complexity and a certain randomness of this mode, this paper uses the generalized operator model (GOM) method combined the large-scale system and intelligent control and analyses the information transmission flow in this mode. In accordance with the decomposition and synthesis approach to first establish the coarse-grained GOM and further decompose level by level, according to each decision-making point or the control link to further establish the finer-grained GOM, finally combining the inventory information sharing to construct multi-granularity GOM.
{"title":"Generalized Operator Model in VMI and TPL Integrated Mode","authors":"Wu Jianbo, Liu Zhixue, Yang Touping","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.11","url":null,"abstract":"With the logistics outsourcing more widely used, a growing number of third-party logistics (TPL) were introduced to the VMI (Vendor-managed Inventory) implementation strategy, in this mode, how to effectively integrate the logistics and information flow in the supply chain has become an important research topic. Due to the complexity and a certain randomness of this mode, this paper uses the generalized operator model (GOM) method combined the large-scale system and intelligent control and analyses the information transmission flow in this mode. In accordance with the decomposition and synthesis approach to first establish the coarse-grained GOM and further decompose level by level, according to each decision-making point or the control link to further establish the finer-grained GOM, finally combining the inventory information sharing to construct multi-granularity GOM.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125546683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
According to the low sample and multifactor impact for long-medium term power load forecasting, the grey relational grade was used in screening factors, the combined model in BP neural network and SVM was established, and the multivariate variables and history load variables were used to roll prediction. The combined predictive values are obviously better than single method. Empirical study showed that the method in this paper is superior to conventional method, so it is worth to be extended and applied.
{"title":"Study on Intelligent Optimization Model Based on Grey Relational Grade in Long–Medium Term Power Load Rolling Forecasting","authors":"D. Niu, Jian-rong Jia, Jia-liang Lv, Yuan Zhang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.32","url":null,"abstract":"According to the low sample and multifactor impact for long-medium term power load forecasting, the grey relational grade was used in screening factors, the combined model in BP neural network and SVM was established, and the multivariate variables and history load variables were used to roll prediction. The combined predictive values are obviously better than single method. Empirical study showed that the method in this paper is superior to conventional method, so it is worth to be extended and applied.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"617 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131473761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consumer behavior at fitness clubs has always been a focus of research in the area of leisure and sports, but few attention has been given to behavior changes over time. Since their first appearance in China in 1990s, health and fitness clubs have been playing important roles in urban residentspsila sports and recreation. The behaviors of the exercisers have undergone great changes. A good understanding of the changes and trends of their behavior is very important both for the management of clubs and for the organization of the national fitness movement. Based on two surveys spanning eight years, the paper identifies dramatic changes experienced in the consumerspsila behavior at fitness clubs, from which the trends of consumers demands are predicted. The results could be helpful for the operation of clubs and organization of sports and recreation for urban residents.
{"title":"Changes in Consumers Behavior at Fitness Clubs among Chinese Urban Residents - Dalian as an Example","authors":"Bin Wang, Chunyou Wu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.50","url":null,"abstract":"Consumer behavior at fitness clubs has always been a focus of research in the area of leisure and sports, but few attention has been given to behavior changes over time. Since their first appearance in China in 1990s, health and fitness clubs have been playing important roles in urban residentspsila sports and recreation. The behaviors of the exercisers have undergone great changes. A good understanding of the changes and trends of their behavior is very important both for the management of clubs and for the organization of the national fitness movement. Based on two surveys spanning eight years, the paper identifies dramatic changes experienced in the consumerspsila behavior at fitness clubs, from which the trends of consumers demands are predicted. The results could be helpful for the operation of clubs and organization of sports and recreation for urban residents.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122299816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The building of transmission networks in electricity market may always be faced with many uncertain factors, therefore the traditional routines for transmission investment decisions could not meet the new demands of the market. This paper aims at analyzing the behaviors, characters of transmission investment and its scale economy, meanwhile, it will focus on studying the uncertainty of the transmission investment in the electricity market. Options views is adopted for the dilatation of transmission lines to dominate the opportunity costs of the dilatation investment and accordingly , the optimal decision discriminant model is built in the light of the stochastic theory , providing a new assistant decision method for the transmission dilatation investment. Analysis of examples show that the previous model could discriminate reasonably the scale capacity of different transmission lines and their scale economy after dilatation, providing reliable basis for decision-makers.
{"title":"Transmission Capacity Expansion Investment Decision in Electricity Market","authors":"Zeng Ming, T. Kuo","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.75","url":null,"abstract":"The building of transmission networks in electricity market may always be faced with many uncertain factors, therefore the traditional routines for transmission investment decisions could not meet the new demands of the market. This paper aims at analyzing the behaviors, characters of transmission investment and its scale economy, meanwhile, it will focus on studying the uncertainty of the transmission investment in the electricity market. Options views is adopted for the dilatation of transmission lines to dominate the opportunity costs of the dilatation investment and accordingly , the optimal decision discriminant model is built in the light of the stochastic theory , providing a new assistant decision method for the transmission dilatation investment. Analysis of examples show that the previous model could discriminate reasonably the scale capacity of different transmission lines and their scale economy after dilatation, providing reliable basis for decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122842672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wind power concession refers to the way of selection of the owner of concession - the concessionaire by bidding, which is mainly carried out by local government with wind resources or its authorized company to delimit a wind resource district with commercial development value. In this paper, strong supporting degree and low effectiveness of the concrete terms of current Chinese policies, laws and regulation directly related to the wind power concession will be discussed and analyzed. By describing and evaluating the situation of policies related to wind power development, it is found that the absence of special wind power law and supplemented laws have become the main obstacles hindering the development of wind power in China. The suggestions to enhance the feasibility of wind power project will be put forward.
{"title":"Policy Support and Effectiveness Analysis of Wind Power Concession in China","authors":"Zhao Erdong, L. Liwei","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.69","url":null,"abstract":"Wind power concession refers to the way of selection of the owner of concession - the concessionaire by bidding, which is mainly carried out by local government with wind resources or its authorized company to delimit a wind resource district with commercial development value. In this paper, strong supporting degree and low effectiveness of the concrete terms of current Chinese policies, laws and regulation directly related to the wind power concession will be discussed and analyzed. By describing and evaluating the situation of policies related to wind power development, it is found that the absence of special wind power law and supplemented laws have become the main obstacles hindering the development of wind power in China. The suggestions to enhance the feasibility of wind power project will be put forward.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"51 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121204908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In order to solve the problem of four parallel activities being adjusted to an order chain of three activities and a parallel activity in deterministic activity-on-arc networks of the CPM type, a new theorem and the comparative method of special order chains of three activities are proposed. Based on the theorem and method, a branch and bound algorithm of the decision tree is described. Through the example, the algorithm minimizes the computational effort in enumerating alternative modes.
{"title":"Branch and Bound Algorithm for the Order Optimization of Parallel Activities in Project Scheduling","authors":"Xing-mei Li, Su-fang Zhang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.106","url":null,"abstract":"In order to solve the problem of four parallel activities being adjusted to an order chain of three activities and a parallel activity in deterministic activity-on-arc networks of the CPM type, a new theorem and the comparative method of special order chains of three activities are proposed. Based on the theorem and method, a branch and bound algorithm of the decision tree is described. Through the example, the algorithm minimizes the computational effort in enumerating alternative modes.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128549529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By making use of the method of fuzzy cluster analysis and various data like GDP, fixed assets investment and electricity consumption of the three major industries, this paper classifies the 9 large cities of Fujian province of China similar in development into the same groups. Based on the result of fuzzy cluster analysis, the paper concludes that the general situation of power consumption affects the macro-economy indexes of the cities, and reveals the different situation of development of the 9 cities. This could provide the relevant departments with reference for making decisions in electricity planning, construction and production.
{"title":"Application of Fuzzy Cluster in the Analysis of Prosperity of Power Consumption Market","authors":"Su-fang Zhang, Ben Jiang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.42","url":null,"abstract":"By making use of the method of fuzzy cluster analysis and various data like GDP, fixed assets investment and electricity consumption of the three major industries, this paper classifies the 9 large cities of Fujian province of China similar in development into the same groups. Based on the result of fuzzy cluster analysis, the paper concludes that the general situation of power consumption affects the macro-economy indexes of the cities, and reveals the different situation of development of the 9 cities. This could provide the relevant departments with reference for making decisions in electricity planning, construction and production.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129240337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Construction projects are one-off endeavors with many unique features such as long period, complicated processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and dynamic organization structures and such organizational and technological complexity generates enormous risks. And environmental and economical dimensions throughout the life cycle of the construction project, so the construction project decision is a difficult and important problem. In this paper, a life cycle engineering (LCE) model is proposed to support construction project decision. The LCE model proposed compares a set of candidate construction projects and, obtained a single indicator for each construction project and for each dimension of evaluation (technical, economic, and environmental), allowing the direct incorporation of the technical, economical and environmental performances into a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. Then, we use the LMS neural network method to solve the MADM problem and get the best construction project from the candidate construction projects.
{"title":"Research on Construction Projects Decision Based on Life Cycle Engineering Model","authors":"Ting Wang, Zhiwu Hua","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.24","url":null,"abstract":"Construction projects are one-off endeavors with many unique features such as long period, complicated processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and dynamic organization structures and such organizational and technological complexity generates enormous risks. And environmental and economical dimensions throughout the life cycle of the construction project, so the construction project decision is a difficult and important problem. In this paper, a life cycle engineering (LCE) model is proposed to support construction project decision. The LCE model proposed compares a set of candidate construction projects and, obtained a single indicator for each construction project and for each dimension of evaluation (technical, economic, and environmental), allowing the direct incorporation of the technical, economical and environmental performances into a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. Then, we use the LMS neural network method to solve the MADM problem and get the best construction project from the candidate construction projects.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130423191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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