Abstract Rational expectations (RE) frameworks featuring informational constraints are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomic research. A recent strand of literature has explored the analytics of RE models with informational subperiods, in which the occurrence of exogenous shocks is period-specific and decision makers condition their own choices and expectations upon a sequence of nested information sets (timing restrictions). Assuming the unrestricted (full information) RE model satisfies saddle-path stability, this paper provides (i) necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of an uncountably infinite set of linearly perturbed solutions to its restricted (informationally constrained) counterpart, and (ii) an algorithm for computing the full set of sunspot solutions when equilibrium indeterminacy occurs.
{"title":"Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions","authors":"M. Sorge","doi":"10.1515/BEJM-2018-0256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJM-2018-0256","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Rational expectations (RE) frameworks featuring informational constraints are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomic research. A recent strand of literature has explored the analytics of RE models with informational subperiods, in which the occurrence of exogenous shocks is period-specific and decision makers condition their own choices and expectations upon a sequence of nested information sets (timing restrictions). Assuming the unrestricted (full information) RE model satisfies saddle-path stability, this paper provides (i) necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of an uncountably infinite set of linearly perturbed solutions to its restricted (informationally constrained) counterpart, and (ii) an algorithm for computing the full set of sunspot solutions when equilibrium indeterminacy occurs.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128119746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper, the optimal taxation problem in a small open economy with international trade in capital or investment goods is investigated. The monopolistic power of a small open economy over the terms of trade causes distortions in consumption and investment. The results suggest that due to the external distortion in investment, the long-run optimal capital income tax could be positive under the baseline calibration, and it is increasing in the degree of investment openness and decreasing in the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. The long-run optimal labor income tax exhibits the opposite relationships with the openness and elasticity parameters. During the course of business cycles, the fluctuations in the external distortions cause the optimal labor income tax to be more volatile and the optimal capital income tax to be less volatile than their closed-economy counterparts.
{"title":"Ramsey income taxation in a small open economy with trade in capital goods","authors":"Jenny Tang","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2017-0044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, the optimal taxation problem in a small open economy with international trade in capital or investment goods is investigated. The monopolistic power of a small open economy over the terms of trade causes distortions in consumption and investment. The results suggest that due to the external distortion in investment, the long-run optimal capital income tax could be positive under the baseline calibration, and it is increasing in the degree of investment openness and decreasing in the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. The long-run optimal labor income tax exhibits the opposite relationships with the openness and elasticity parameters. During the course of business cycles, the fluctuations in the external distortions cause the optimal labor income tax to be more volatile and the optimal capital income tax to be less volatile than their closed-economy counterparts.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"34 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126395542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the effects of boundedly rational expectation on the business cycle in a two-country New Keynesian model. Forecast heuristics in a closed-economy, De Grauwe’s (2011) model, is extended, and the effects of heterogeneous agents are incorporated in an open economy. In particular, the expectation formation process is constrained by waves of optimists and pessimists – the so-called “animal spirits.” As a result, the model is able to explain group behavior based on forecast performance, which has significant effects on output and inflation dynamics in the two countries. The simulation results suggest that heterogeneity in group behavior and nominal rigidities, as well as a moderate degree of international trade, amplify spillover effects on international business cycles leading to high cross-correlations in output and inflation.
{"title":"Animal spirits in an open economy: an interaction-based approach to the business cycle","authors":"Tae-Seok Jang","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2016-0141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2016-0141","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the effects of boundedly rational expectation on the business cycle in a two-country New Keynesian model. Forecast heuristics in a closed-economy, De Grauwe’s (2011) model, is extended, and the effects of heterogeneous agents are incorporated in an open economy. In particular, the expectation formation process is constrained by waves of optimists and pessimists – the so-called “animal spirits.” As a result, the model is able to explain group behavior based on forecast performance, which has significant effects on output and inflation dynamics in the two countries. The simulation results suggest that heterogeneity in group behavior and nominal rigidities, as well as a moderate degree of international trade, amplify spillover effects on international business cycles leading to high cross-correlations in output and inflation.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131763414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leyre Gómez-Oliveros Durán, Stefan Niemann, P. Pichler
Abstract We introduce fiscal policy into a sovereign debt model with endogenous default costs and examine the implications for the determination of the output costs of default. We find that the quantitative properties of the output costs of default, and their dependence on primitives such as the elasticity of labor supply, are distinctly different depending on the margin of fiscal adjustment. The consideration of fiscal policy thus has potentially important implications for the quantitative properties of models of sovereign debt and default.
{"title":"Fiscal policy and the output costs of sovereign default","authors":"Leyre Gómez-Oliveros Durán, Stefan Niemann, P. Pichler","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2017-0236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0236","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We introduce fiscal policy into a sovereign debt model with endogenous default costs and examine the implications for the determination of the output costs of default. We find that the quantitative properties of the output costs of default, and their dependence on primitives such as the elasticity of labor supply, are distinctly different depending on the margin of fiscal adjustment. The consideration of fiscal policy thus has potentially important implications for the quantitative properties of models of sovereign debt and default.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130104146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Workers, firms and policymakers often face a trade-off between shorter unemployment spells on the one hand, and better quality matches on the other. During recessions this manifests itself through job competition, where high skilled workers misallocate their labor to positions for which they are over-qualified in order get back to work faster. In the presence of job-specific human capital, as high skilled workers gain experience in this low skilled sector they may find themselves “locked in” to these jobs. This is because workers will not want to lose their seniority by searching for a job that better utilizes their general human capital. As a result, this misallocation can persist even in economic recoveries leading to inefficient outcomes. This paper explores such an economy and finds that a UI system that becomes more generous during a recession increases welfare and better allocates human capital over the business cycle.
{"title":"Job competition, human capital, and the lock-in effect: can unemployment insurance efficiently allocate human capital","authors":"Jeremy Schwartz","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2018-0197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2018-0197","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Workers, firms and policymakers often face a trade-off between shorter unemployment spells on the one hand, and better quality matches on the other. During recessions this manifests itself through job competition, where high skilled workers misallocate their labor to positions for which they are over-qualified in order get back to work faster. In the presence of job-specific human capital, as high skilled workers gain experience in this low skilled sector they may find themselves “locked in” to these jobs. This is because workers will not want to lose their seniority by searching for a job that better utilizes their general human capital. As a result, this misallocation can persist even in economic recoveries leading to inefficient outcomes. This paper explores such an economy and finds that a UI system that becomes more generous during a recession increases welfare and better allocates human capital over the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122275500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We develop a simple growth model featuring individuals’ choices between general and specific skills, endogenous technological innovation, and a government subsidy for education. The two types of skills differ by their productivity and transferability: general skills are transferable across firms, while each firm-specific skill has a productivity advantage in the firm. Firms face uncertainty in their innovation activities, and the resulting heterogeneity in their labor demand makes the transferability of general skill valuable. We theoretically show that as a country catch up to the world technology frontier, firms invest more in innovation activities. This rises firms’ technological uncertainty and, thus, their demands for general skills increases. As a result, especially in more advanced economies, education subsidies may enhance GDP by increasing the supply of general skills. Using aggregated data for 12 European OECD counties, we calibrate the model and compare the theoretical prediction with the data. In cross-country comparisons, we find that the returns on general skills and the impact of general education expenditure on GDP are higher in countries with higher total factor productivity. These findings support our theoretical argument of the positive relationship between firms’ demand for general skills and countries’ stages of development.
{"title":"Changing demand for general skills, technological uncertainty, and economic growth","authors":"Masashi Tanaka","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2018-0237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2018-0237","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We develop a simple growth model featuring individuals’ choices between general and specific skills, endogenous technological innovation, and a government subsidy for education. The two types of skills differ by their productivity and transferability: general skills are transferable across firms, while each firm-specific skill has a productivity advantage in the firm. Firms face uncertainty in their innovation activities, and the resulting heterogeneity in their labor demand makes the transferability of general skill valuable. We theoretically show that as a country catch up to the world technology frontier, firms invest more in innovation activities. This rises firms’ technological uncertainty and, thus, their demands for general skills increases. As a result, especially in more advanced economies, education subsidies may enhance GDP by increasing the supply of general skills. Using aggregated data for 12 European OECD counties, we calibrate the model and compare the theoretical prediction with the data. In cross-country comparisons, we find that the returns on general skills and the impact of general education expenditure on GDP are higher in countries with higher total factor productivity. These findings support our theoretical argument of the positive relationship between firms’ demand for general skills and countries’ stages of development.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133524752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract I develop a model with status concerns to analyze how different economic factors affect female labor participation and welfare, as well as average household incomes and wages. Reductions in the price of domestic goods and increases in female wages have positive effects on female participation. Increases in male wages have different effects on female participation depending on whether they affect female wages or not. Events that lead to increases in female participation are usually associated with decreases in the welfare of stay-at-home wives but are not necessarily associated with increases in welfare of working wives. Allowing for part-time work can lead to an increase in overall female labor force participation, but some women that would have worked full-time end up working part-time. If female wages are endogenous, an increase in male wages leads to an increase in the female participation rate even if it is not associated with a decrease in the gender wage gap. The positive feedback of increased female participation on their wages can lead to hysteresis of dual equilibria of high and low female labor force participation and a discontinuous transition between these equilibria.
{"title":"Dynamics of female labor force participation and welfare with multiple social reference groups","authors":"Mihaela Pintea","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2017-0230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0230","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I develop a model with status concerns to analyze how different economic factors affect female labor participation and welfare, as well as average household incomes and wages. Reductions in the price of domestic goods and increases in female wages have positive effects on female participation. Increases in male wages have different effects on female participation depending on whether they affect female wages or not. Events that lead to increases in female participation are usually associated with decreases in the welfare of stay-at-home wives but are not necessarily associated with increases in welfare of working wives. Allowing for part-time work can lead to an increase in overall female labor force participation, but some women that would have worked full-time end up working part-time. If female wages are endogenous, an increase in male wages leads to an increase in the female participation rate even if it is not associated with a decrease in the gender wage gap. The positive feedback of increased female participation on their wages can lead to hysteresis of dual equilibria of high and low female labor force participation and a discontinuous transition between these equilibria.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130461831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract For money to be essential, environments have been considered in which there is imperfect monitoring of past actions and in which it is difficult to coordinate among economic agents. This paper provides an environment in which there is no monitoring of past actions while coordination is difficult. In this environment, we show that the first best allocation is achieved without money, and hence, money is not essential. The implication is that, for money to be essential, no monitoring is not enough but coordination must also be free.
{"title":"Monitoring and coordination for essentiality of money","authors":"Yu Awaya, Hiroki Fukai","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0066","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For money to be essential, environments have been considered in which there is imperfect monitoring of past actions and in which it is difficult to coordinate among economic agents. This paper provides an environment in which there is no monitoring of past actions while coordination is difficult. In this environment, we show that the first best allocation is achieved without money, and hence, money is not essential. The implication is that, for money to be essential, no monitoring is not enough but coordination must also be free.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"235 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115181817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We develop a two-industry R&D growth model with a free-entry endogenous market structure to evaluate the impact of industrial fundamentals on cross-industry differences of TFP growth and R&D intensity. Endogenous market structure in our model allows the firm’s market size to respond to the firm’s entry and exit which complements the models with an exogenous market structure in the previous literature. We find that surprisingly, an industry with a relatively high R&D productivity or appropriability exhibits “relatively” low in-house innovation growth and R&D intensity during transition. Moreoever, we examine the effects of R&D subsidies and patent breadth policies on industry differences by implementing both asymmetric and symmetric policy rules. We find that only asymmetric R&D subsidies have impacts on TFP growth and R&D intensity differences.
{"title":"Cross-industry growth differences with asymmetric industries and endogenous market structure","authors":"Chien-Yu Huang, Lei Ji","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2017-0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We develop a two-industry R&D growth model with a free-entry endogenous market structure to evaluate the impact of industrial fundamentals on cross-industry differences of TFP growth and R&D intensity. Endogenous market structure in our model allows the firm’s market size to respond to the firm’s entry and exit which complements the models with an exogenous market structure in the previous literature. We find that surprisingly, an industry with a relatively high R&D productivity or appropriability exhibits “relatively” low in-house innovation growth and R&D intensity during transition. Moreoever, we examine the effects of R&D subsidies and patent breadth policies on industry differences by implementing both asymmetric and symmetric policy rules. We find that only asymmetric R&D subsidies have impacts on TFP growth and R&D intensity differences.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124874127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Public infrastructure is one of the foundations for the economic growth of a country. While there is a strong consensus regarding infrastructure’s effect on growth, less is known about the effect of infrastructure on welfare and the distribution of wealth. In this paper, we examine the quantitative effect of infrastructure investment on welfare and the degree of inequality present within a developing country. In so doing, we characterize the effects resulting from increased infrastructure investment by tracing out the entire transition path between steady states. Three results standout: (i) both average and individual welfare effects are sizable, regardless of how the additional investment is financed, (ii) when distortionary taxes are adjusted to finance additional investment, poorer agents benefit more when the interest income tax is used, while richer agents benefit more when either the consumption or labor income taxes are used, (iii) inequality, as measured by the wealth Gini, rises in the short-run, but the long-run effect depends on which financing method is chosen.
{"title":"The welfare effects of infrastructure investment in a heterogeneous agents economy","authors":"John Gibson, Felix K. Rioja","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0095","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Public infrastructure is one of the foundations for the economic growth of a country. While there is a strong consensus regarding infrastructure’s effect on growth, less is known about the effect of infrastructure on welfare and the distribution of wealth. In this paper, we examine the quantitative effect of infrastructure investment on welfare and the degree of inequality present within a developing country. In so doing, we characterize the effects resulting from increased infrastructure investment by tracing out the entire transition path between steady states. Three results standout: (i) both average and individual welfare effects are sizable, regardless of how the additional investment is financed, (ii) when distortionary taxes are adjusted to finance additional investment, poorer agents benefit more when the interest income tax is used, while richer agents benefit more when either the consumption or labor income taxes are used, (iii) inequality, as measured by the wealth Gini, rises in the short-run, but the long-run effect depends on which financing method is chosen.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128846590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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