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Economic voting goes local: evidence from the Italian regions 经济投票是地方性的:来自意大利地区的证据
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.22
Stefano Rombi, Marco Valbruzzi
Abstract This article investigates the pattern of economic voting at the regional level in Italy. It focuses on the elections held in 18 out of 20 Italian regions from 1995 to 2020. Retrospective voting is examined by using the theory of economic voting, measured at the subnational level. By providing some inferential models and controlling for the impact of phases of recession, this article tests the hypothesis whereby the incumbent regional government is rewarded (or punished) by voters in the event of a good (or poor) state of the regional economy. It mainly considers macroeconomic variables, focusing on the relationship between the unemployment rate (at both national and regional levels) and the electoral performance of the incumbent executive. The empirical analysis shows that, particularly during periods of ‘quiet politics’, economic voting also occurs at the local level and thus the regional unemployment rate affects regional rulers' electoral outcomes.
摘要本文研究了意大利地区层面的经济投票模式。它的重点是1995年至2020年在意大利20个地区中18个地区举行的选举。追溯投票是通过使用经济投票理论来检验的,在次国家层面进行测量。通过提供一些推理模型和控制衰退阶段的影响,本文检验了在地区经济状况良好(或糟糕)的情况下,选民对现任地区政府的奖励(或惩罚)的假设。它主要考虑宏观经济变量,侧重于失业率(在国家和地区两级)与现任行政长官的选举表现之间的关系。实证分析表明,特别是在“安静政治”时期,经济投票也发生在地方层面,因此地区失业率影响地区统治者的选举结果。
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引用次数: 0
Did the citizenship income scheme do it? The supposed electoral consequence of a flagship policy 公民收入计划成功了吗?旗舰政策的预期选举结果
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.19
Marco Giuliani
Abstract In the aftermath of the 2022 Italian legislative elections, but also during the entire electoral campaign, several claims were made that much of the electoral support for the Five Star Movement had been triggered by the ‘ Reddito di cittadinanza ’ – the welfare policy introduced in 2019 by the yellow–green government. This research note first distinguishes between distributive politics and policy voting, and then explores the empirical relationship between the geographical provision at the municipal level of the citizenship income and the vote for the party led by Giuseppe Conte. While traditional multivariate analyses fail to reveal any spurious relationship, matching techniques help highlight the absence of any causal relationship between the two variables.
在2022年意大利议会选举之后,以及在整个竞选活动中,有一些人声称,五星运动的大部分选举支持是由“Reddito di cittadinanza”引发的,这是黄绿政府在2019年推出的福利政策。本研究报告首先区分了分配政治和政策投票,然后探讨了城市层面公民收入的地理供应与朱塞佩·孔特领导的政党投票之间的实证关系。虽然传统的多变量分析无法揭示任何虚假的关系,但匹配技术有助于突出两个变量之间没有任何因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
IPO volume 53 issue 3 Cover and Front matter IPO第53卷第3期封面及正面事宜
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.20
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
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引用次数: 0
IPO volume 53 issue 3 Cover and Back matter IPO第53卷第3期封面及封底
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.21
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
此内容的摘要不可用,因此提供了预览。当您可以访问此内容时,可以通过“保存PDF”操作按钮获得完整的PDF。
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引用次数: 0
Precarious work and challenger parties: how precarity influenced vote choice in the 2018 Italian election 不稳定的工作和挑战者政党:不稳定如何影响2018年意大利大选的投票选择
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.17
Elisabetta Girardi
Abstract Across Western European democracies, the last 20 years have seen a growth of precarious employment and the rise of challenger parties. Both trends are especially marked in Italy, where occupational insecurity has become the norm and over half of the electorate has turned to a challenger party. In this article, I investigate the relationship between these two phenomena, addressing the question of whether and how precarity in the labor market influenced vote choice in the 2018 general election. First, I provide descriptive evidence that the Italian labor market shifted from dualism to generalized precarization. Second, I empirically investigate the relationship between precarity and voting in this context. The results show that the perception of precarity, not formal employment status, influenced voting behavior: it fostered participation, increased support for the Five Star Movement, and decreased support for the Democratic Party. These findings challenge core assumptions in the literature, first and foremost about precarious workers' low turnout rate, difficult mobilization, and consequent political irrelevance. They indicate that the electoral weight of precarious workers has increased, and their representation can be electorally beneficial.
纵观西欧民主国家,过去20年见证了不稳定就业的增长和挑战者政党的崛起。这两种趋势在意大利尤为明显,在那里,职业不安全已成为常态,超过一半的选民转向了挑战者政党。在本文中,我研究了这两种现象之间的关系,解决了劳动力市场的不稳定性是否以及如何影响2018年大选中的投票选择的问题。首先,我提供了描述性的证据,证明意大利劳动力市场从二元论转向了普遍的不稳定化。其次,在此背景下,我对不稳定性与投票之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,不稳定的感觉,而不是正式的就业状态,影响投票行为:它促进了参与,增加了对五星运动的支持,减少了对民主党的支持。这些发现挑战了文献中的核心假设,首先是关于不稳定工人的低投票率、难以动员以及随之而来的政治无关性。它们表明,不稳定工人在选举中的比重有所增加,他们的代表权在选举中可能是有利的。
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引用次数: 0
The reception of Iran's state propaganda by the Italian far right: recasting the diffusion of authoritarian discourse and narratives 意大利极右翼对伊朗国家宣传的接受:重塑威权话语和叙事的传播
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.18
Paola Rivetti
Abstract This article examines the reception of the Iranian state's authoritarian discourse by the Italian far right to interrogate the mechanisms of authoritarian diffusion from the point of view of the receiving actors. Coding Iran's state propaganda and searching for overlaps and resonances with the far right's discourse, this article argues that the receiving audience selectively translates the content coming from Iran for the Italian public with the goal of reinforcing its own political discourse. The article contributes to the debate on authoritarian diffusion by providing fresh empirical findings from a rarely studied case study and by shifting the focus to political discourse and narratives. This article also foregrounds the agency of the receiving audience, rather than the authoritarian state's, with the goal of interrogating the resources and infrastructures that enable diffusion, rather than the motivation or the success of the ‘sending’ authoritarian state. This article expands the understanding of complex dynamics of authoritarian diffusion and contributes to examine the establishment of transnational connections between state and non-state illiberal actors in the era of ‘sovranism’ and right-wing populism.
摘要本文考察了意大利极右翼对伊朗国家威权话语的接受情况,从接受者的角度探讨了威权话语扩散的机制。对伊朗的官方宣传进行编码,并寻找与极右翼话语的重叠和共鸣,本文认为,受众有选择地将来自伊朗的内容翻译给意大利公众,目的是加强自己的政治话语。这篇文章通过从一个很少被研究的案例研究中提供新的实证发现,并将焦点转移到政治话语和叙事上,为关于威权传播的辩论做出了贡献。本文还强调了接收受众的代理,而不是威权国家的代理,其目标是质疑能够传播的资源和基础设施,而不是“发送”威权国家的动机或成功。本文扩展了对威权主义扩散的复杂动态的理解,并有助于研究在“专制主义”和右翼民粹主义时代,国家和非国家非自由行为体之间跨国联系的建立。
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引用次数: 1
Mamma Europa. Una nuova unione dopo crisi e scandali Edited by Elisabetta Gualmini. Bologna, Società editrice il Mulino, 2023, 224 pp., 18 € paper. 欧罗巴妈妈。危机和丑闻后的新联盟Elisabetta Gualmini编辑。博洛尼亚,Societàeditrice il Mulino,2023年,224页,18欧元论文。
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.14
Andrea Volpe
The Covid-19 pandemic has been one of the most disruptive events of recent times and its impact has been significant across the world, including in European countries. In the latter, the pandemic generated relevant changes in the social and political culture of Europe, leading the EU to embrace new strategies, paradigms and courses of action. Unfortunately, the literature dedicated to the more recent developments of European integration could not sufficiently address the challenges related to such an unexpected event. The effects of the pandemic on the evolution of the integration process have often been analysed isolating single cases or subjects from the broader context of this topic, without seizing the complexity of these phenomena. This makes the audience unaware of the magnitude of the recent dynamics underpinning the evolution of the EU. Elisabetta Gualmini has provided the audience with a big picture of the latest developments of the EU through the publication of a volume entitled ‘Mamma Europa. Una nuova unione dopo crisi e scandali’. The multidisciplinary approach adopted by the author is what distinguishes this work from the existing literature. Gualmini, starting from a brief historical analysis of the main guidelines that have characterised the integration process since its early stages, scrutinises the recent developments of the EU combining elements belonging to various disciplines, including sociology, economics and political science. The argument put forward by Gualmini is that the pandemic has generated a clear departure of the EU from its original precepts, which were mainly based on market integration regulated by a rigidly conservative logic and devoid of solid social grounding; the dramatic social impact of the pandemic made the conservative approach to integration largely unpopular, leading the EU to provide the European project with a new social architecture (p. 13). The EU placed citizens’ social protection at the top of its agenda, determining a paradigmatic shift from a conservative to a New Keynesian approach to economy. The five chapters of the book can be divided into three parts. In the first (Ch. 1), the author tries to identify the causes of the Euroscepticism that has invested the EU over the last decade. While most of the literature focuses on political and cultural factors, as the ideological rejection of cosmopolitanism and the idea of transnational governance, Gualmini considers the economic factor as crucial. The European sovereign debt crisis showed the preference of the EU for rigid programmes of austerity that made the quick restoration of the public finances a priority, heedless of the negative social effects on many people. The cases of Greece and Italy, two countries that were forced to adopt very restrictive fiscal policies in order to improve their financial stability have been emblematic of a conservatism that paid little attention to the needs of the citizens
新冠肺炎大流行是近年来最具破坏性的事件之一,其影响在世界各地,包括在欧洲国家都很显著。在后者中,疫情导致欧洲社会和政治文化发生了相关变化,导致欧盟采用了新的战略、模式和行动方案。不幸的是,专门介绍欧洲一体化的最新发展的文献无法充分应对与这一意外事件有关的挑战。人们经常将单个病例或受试者从这一主题的更广泛背景中孤立出来,分析疫情对一体化进程演变的影响,而没有抓住这些现象的复杂性。这让观众没有意识到支撑欧盟发展的近期动态的重要性。Elisabetta Gualmini出版了一本名为《欧洲哺乳动物》的书,向观众介绍了欧盟的最新发展。这是一场丑闻。作者采用的多学科方法是这部作品与现有文献的区别。Gualmini从对一体化进程早期以来的主要指导方针的简要历史分析开始,仔细研究了欧盟的最新发展,结合了社会学、经济学和政治学等各个学科的元素。Gualmini提出的论点是,疫情导致欧盟明显偏离了其最初的规则,这些规则主要基于严格保守逻辑监管的市场一体化,缺乏坚实的社会基础;疫情的巨大社会影响使保守的一体化方法在很大程度上不受欢迎,导致欧盟为欧洲项目提供了一个新的社会架构(第13页)。欧盟将公民的社会保护置于其议程的首位,决定了从保守主义到新凯恩斯主义经济方法的典型转变。这本书的五章可以分为三个部分。在第一章(第1章)中,作者试图找出过去十年来投资于欧盟的欧洲怀疑主义的原因。虽然大多数文献都关注政治和文化因素,如对世界主义和跨国治理理念的意识形态排斥,但Gualmini认为经济因素至关重要。欧洲主权债务危机表明,欧盟倾向于制定严格的紧缩计划,将迅速恢复公共财政作为优先事项,而忽视了对许多人的负面社会影响。希腊和意大利这两个国家为了改善金融稳定而被迫采取非常严格的财政政策,这两个例子象征着保守主义,很少关注公民的需求
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引用次数: 0
A matter of content: overcoming the gender gap in political knowledge, expression of knowledge, and interest 内容问题:克服政治知识、知识表达和兴趣方面的性别差距
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.15
Silvia Keeling
Abstract Data systematically depict women as less knowledgeable, interested, and apt to provide a valid answer to questions about politics. These three gaps – the knowledge, the political interest, and the expression of knowledge gap – are related to a discriminatory way of measuring political knowledge and interest, which conceptually juxtaposes the more general concept of knowledge and interest in politics to that of knowing about, or taking an interest in, political institutions. This narrows the measurement to topics that men are more interested in. In this experimental study, the focus is shifted from political institutions to a wider understanding of what can be a political issue. It reveals that women's knowledge disadvantage and hesitancy in answering to knowledge questions, together with men's higher levels of interest, are most likely conditional to this traditional interpretation of the term politics.
数据系统地描述了女性知识较少,对政治问题感兴趣,并且倾向于提供有效的答案。这三个差距——知识、政治兴趣和知识差距的表达——与一种衡量政治知识和兴趣的歧视性方法有关,这种方法在概念上将更一般的政治知识和兴趣概念与了解或对政治制度感兴趣的概念并列。这将测量范围缩小到男性更感兴趣的话题。在这项实验研究中,重点从政治制度转移到对政治问题的更广泛理解。它揭示了女性的知识劣势和在回答知识问题时的犹豫,以及男性更高的兴趣水平,很可能是这种对政治一词的传统解释的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Cambiamenti climatici. Antropocene e politica by Daniele Conversi, Milano, Mondadori Università, 2022, 184 pages, price: 13 € (paperback). 气候变化。Daniele Conversi著《人类世与政治》,米兰,蒙达多利大学,2022年,184页,价格:13欧元(平装本)。
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.13
Alon Helled
Daniele Conversi published a short and instructive volume on the relations between climate change and politics. Conversi puts on the table the interconnections between climate change, the apex of many other environmental disasters, and the world of nationalist politics, with the latter being anchored to predominant nation-state logics, even in the face of planetary challenges. In four chapters, the author addresses the ‘climate change science’ and sociopolitical responsibilities pertinent to the nation-state. He asserts that a state of ‘collective stupidity’ (p. 6) and the clouding of intellectual faculties, pushed aside by mediatic mainstream, have engendered a sort of alarmism and, at the same time, a refusal to rethink economic growth or liberal capitalistic development. The phenomenon of skeptical deniers’ tautological distortion of scientific evidence has hindered the effective governance of planetary problems. This lack of political response has led to the expansion of regional tipping points tending to become global ones. As the regional transforms into global, with no sufficient measures taken by policy-makers, this process poses high risk to the planet, given the unpredictable cascading effects it originates. Conversi uncovers the triadic reality of interconnected scientific, social, and state-nation political dimensions, while advocating for the need to adopt a transdisciplinary science to address climate change. His position implies that science may not necessarily be democratic in the production of knowledge. However, it requires democratic transparency in order to disseminate that knowledge and, consequently, provide means of pressure on politics. In the first chapter, Conversi historicizes the first development of scientific environmental studies and the first signs of ecological consciousness, initiated in the 1970s (Earth Day, Green Peace, the 1972 Limits to Growth Report, etc.), that showed the fallacies of the dominant Western economic model. As neither interest, nor concrete action had been taken by states during the Reaganian years of so-called ‘devolution’, the role of nation-states in the developed world regarding greenhouse gas emissions was only conceptualized in 1992 (with no public funding). Yet, the two conflicting paradigms, that is, no limits to development and economic growth vs. anthropogenic responsibility, remained unbridgeable. The second chapter introduces the biopolitical dimension, inspired by Bruno Latour, of contemporary emergencies. As asserted by Conversi, climate change is the corollary of conflicts, pandemics, wars, poverty droughts (e.g., Syria, Somalia, Sudan, etc.) which are consequential to soil depletion, desertification, and deforestation, acidification of the oceans, extinction of species, and so on; up to the demographic pressure of ‘climigration’ of masses from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe (p. 26). Here, the author posits the challenge of the denationalization of both politics and policies world
Daniele Conversi出版了一本关于气候变化与政治之间关系的简短而富有启发性的书。Conversi将气候变化(许多其他环境灾难的顶点)与民族主义政治世界之间的相互联系摆在了桌面上,即使在面临全球挑战的情况下,后者也受制于占主导地位的民族国家逻辑。在四章中,作者阐述了与民族国家相关的“气候变化科学”和社会政治责任。他断言,一种“集体愚蠢”的状态(第6页)和智力的模糊,被中介主流推到一边,产生了一种危言耸听的情绪,同时也拒绝重新思考经济增长或自由资本主义发展。持怀疑态度的否认者对科学证据的重复扭曲现象阻碍了对行星问题的有效治理。这种缺乏政治回应的情况导致了区域临界点的扩大,趋向于成为全球临界点。随着区域向全球转变,决策者没有采取足够的措施,考虑到其产生的不可预测的连锁效应,这一过程对地球构成了高风险。Conversi揭示了科学、社会和国家政治层面相互关联的三元现实,同时主张有必要采用跨学科科学来应对气候变化。他的立场意味着科学在生产知识方面不一定是民主的。然而,它需要民主的透明度,以便传播这种知识,从而提供对政治施加压力的手段。在第一章中,Conversi将20世纪70年代开始的科学环境研究的第一个发展和生态意识的第一个迹象(地球日、绿色和平、1972年增长极限报告等)历史化,这些迹象表明了占主导地位的西方经济模式的谬误。由于在里根所谓的“权力下放”时期,各国既没有兴趣,也没有采取具体行动,发达国家在温室气体排放方面的作用直到1992年才被概念化(没有公共资金)。然而,两种相互冲突的范式,即发展和经济增长不受限制与人为责任,仍然无法弥合。第二章介绍了受布鲁诺·拉图尔启发的当代突发事件的生物政治维度。正如Conversi所断言的那样,气候变化是冲突、流行病、战争、贫困和干旱(如叙利亚、索马里、苏丹等)的必然结果,这些都是土壤枯竭、荒漠化和森林砍伐、海洋酸化、物种灭绝等的后果;从撒哈拉以南非洲到欧洲的人口“气候迁移”的人口压力(第26页)。在这里,作者提出了世界范围内政治和政策非国有化的挑战。这是匡威这本书的核心反映。全球现象,如大规模消费、地球人口过剩、核焦对化学和/或放射性同位素的污染,所有这些都会影响气候变化和由此引发的紧急情况
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引用次数: 0
Politics by other means: an analysis of the discourses of Italian technocratic Prime Ministers 其他方式的政治:对意大利技术官僚总理话语的分析
IF 1 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.16
D. Giannone, A. Cozzolino
Technocracy is becoming increasingly relevant in Western democracies and particularly in Italy, a country characterised by four technocratic governments in three decades. Despite the growing number of dedicated studies, there is a persistent gap in the existing literature concerning the discursive dimension of technocracy – namely, how technocrats frame the historical context, legitimise their policy agendas and, more broadly, the establishment of their governments. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing the speeches given by four Italian technocratic Prime Ministers to the parliament when asking for the vote of confidence. Methodologically, we perform first the content analysis to map the themes addressed in the speeches, their quantitative relevance and variation over time. Then, we turn to critical discourse analysis to understand the specific argumentative strategies that legitimise policy action in five key and interrelated dimensions: context, legitimation, the state, European Union and political economy. The analysis seeks to answer three research questions: What are the main discursive strategies of legitimation used by technocrats? Do they change significantly between governments and over time? Do partisan policy options and worldviews emerge clearly, or do they remain under the surface? The paper aims to contribute to the theoretical conceptualisation and empirical analysis of technocracy by highlighting the subjective, performative and overall political dimensions of the phenomenon.
技术官僚在西方民主国家越来越重要,尤其是在意大利,这个国家在三十年内有四个技术官僚政府。尽管有越来越多的专门研究,但在现有文献中,关于技术官僚的话语维度——即技术官僚如何构建历史背景、使其政策议程合法化,以及更广泛地说,如何建立政府——仍然存在着持续的空白。这项研究旨在通过分析四位意大利技术官僚总理在议会要求信任投票时的演讲来填补这一空白。在方法上,我们首先进行内容分析,以绘制演讲中涉及的主题、它们的数量相关性和随时间的变化。然后,我们转向批判性话语分析,从五个关键且相互关联的维度来理解使政策行动合法化的具体论证策略:背景、合法化、国家、欧盟和政治经济。该分析试图回答三个研究问题:技术官僚使用的合法化的主要话语策略是什么?它们在政府之间以及随着时间的推移会发生显著变化吗?党派政策选择和世界观是清晰地出现了,还是隐藏在表面之下?本文旨在通过强调技术官僚现象的主观、表现和整体政治维度,为技术官僚的理论概念化和实证分析做出贡献。
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Italian Political Science Review-Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica
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