Teacher quality is crucial to deliver good education. However, improving teacher quality in developing countries can be a tough problem. This paper investigates the impact of a teacher placement program that sends college graduates with a strong academic track record to teach in rural primary schools in Indonesia on student test scores. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that exposure to program teachers for a semester is associated with a 0.16 standard deviation increase in their students' average mathematics scores. The weakest students benefited more, with an increase in score by 0.20 standard deviation. Students receiving direct instructions from program teachers during scheduled classroom periods benefited even more. Attracting better talents to teach in rural schools could be an important pathway to improve the academic achievements of the weakest students at rural schools. mathematics higher The weakest students appear to benefit more from Indonesia Mengajar teachers’ Indone sian and science classes than the mathematics classes. The estimated effects are 0.74 and 1.04 points for Indonesian and science classes, respectively. These results suggest that the students benefited both from the use of mathematics concepts in science lessons and from more intensive use of the national language. Although school examinations are written in the Indonesian language, most of the population speak local languages at home. Thus, comprehension problems may underlie the students’ poor mathematics scores, and instructions that improve comprehension can boost performance.
{"title":"The Impact of Sending Top College Graduates to Rural Primary Schools","authors":"Masyhur A Hilmi","doi":"10.1355/ae39-se","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae39-se","url":null,"abstract":"Teacher quality is crucial to deliver good education. However, improving teacher quality in developing countries can be a tough problem. This paper investigates the impact of a teacher placement program that sends college graduates with a strong academic track record to teach in rural primary schools in Indonesia on student test scores. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that exposure to program teachers for a semester is associated with a 0.16 standard deviation increase in their students' average mathematics scores. The weakest students benefited more, with an increase in score by 0.20 standard deviation. Students receiving direct instructions from program teachers during scheduled classroom periods benefited even more. Attracting better talents to teach in rural schools could be an important pathway to improve the academic achievements of the weakest students at rural schools. mathematics higher The weakest students appear to benefit more from Indonesia Mengajar teachers’ Indone sian and science classes than the mathematics classes. The estimated effects are 0.74 and 1.04 points for Indonesian and science classes, respectively. These results suggest that the students benefited both from the use of mathematics concepts in science lessons and from more intensive use of the national language. Although school examinations are written in the Indonesian language, most of the population speak local languages at home. Thus, comprehension problems may underlie the students’ poor mathematics scores, and instructions that improve comprehension can boost performance.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"281 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76801274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Governments worldwide have introduced various programmes to facilitate distance learning in home settings during the COVID-19 school closure. However, given cross-country variations in state capacity, these schemes differ significantly in design, delivery and coverage. Within-country variation in poverty and home conditions also create added challenges for home-schooling programmes. Therefore, case studies examining country-specific initiatives are necessary. To this end, this paper examines the Pengajaran dan Pembelajaran di Rumah (PdPR) in Malaysia, an upper-middle-income country with high Internet coverage and a low level of extreme poverty. Data come from a purposefully designed nationwide social media survey on secondary school children conducted in January 2021. Under the PdPR scheme, the government created various technology-based platforms to ensure online learning. By way of studying children's participation in educational activities during school closure, this paper presents a descriptive assessment of PdPR. We first develop a conceptual framework to summarize the initiative. Then we examine the scheme in three aspects: the regularity of online lessons offered by school authorities;the extent of use of specific components and the medium of access of PdPR by learners;and their subjective evaluation of and difficulties faced with online schooling. Data confirm a significant socio-economic divide by income and location in access to EdTech as well as home support provisions. Most importantly, online lessons are irregular, and a significant proportion of students find online programmes challenging to follow. Given the dissatisfaction, most prefer to return to onsite education once schools reopen.
在COVID-19学校关闭期间，世界各国政府推出了各种方案，以促进家庭远程学习。然而，鉴于各国能力的差异，这些计划在设计、实施和覆盖范围方面存在很大差异。国家内部贫困和家庭条件的差异也给家庭教育方案带来了额外的挑战。因此，审查具体国家倡议的个案研究是必要的。为此，本文考察了马来西亚的Pengajaran dan Pembelajaran di Rumah (PdPR)，马来西亚是一个互联网覆盖率高、极端贫困水平低的中高收入国家。数据来自于2021年1月对中学生进行的一项有针对性的全国性社交媒体调查。根据PdPR计划，政府创建了各种基于技术的平台，以确保在线学习。本文通过对学校关闭期间儿童参与教育活动的研究，提出了一种描述性的评估方法。我们首先开发一个概念性框架来总结主动性。然后，我们从三个方面考察了该方案:学校当局提供在线课程的规律性;学习者使用特定组件和访问PdPR的媒介的程度;以及他们对在线教育的主观评价和面临的困难。数据证实，在获得教育技术和家庭支持方面，收入和地点存在显著的社会经济差异。最重要的是，在线课程是不定期的，很大一部分学生发现在线课程很难跟上。考虑到这种不满，一旦学校重新开学，大多数人更愿意回到现场教育。
{"title":"Home Schooling during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Assessment of Malaysia‘s PdPR Programme","authors":"M. N. Asadullah","doi":"10.1355/ae39-sd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae39-sd","url":null,"abstract":"Governments worldwide have introduced various programmes to facilitate distance learning in home settings during the COVID-19 school closure. However, given cross-country variations in state capacity, these schemes differ significantly in design, delivery and coverage. Within-country variation in poverty and home conditions also create added challenges for home-schooling programmes. Therefore, case studies examining country-specific initiatives are necessary. To this end, this paper examines the Pengajaran dan Pembelajaran di Rumah (PdPR) in Malaysia, an upper-middle-income country with high Internet coverage and a low level of extreme poverty. Data come from a purposefully designed nationwide social media survey on secondary school children conducted in January 2021. Under the PdPR scheme, the government created various technology-based platforms to ensure online learning. By way of studying children's participation in educational activities during school closure, this paper presents a descriptive assessment of PdPR. We first develop a conceptual framework to summarize the initiative. Then we examine the scheme in three aspects: the regularity of online lessons offered by school authorities;the extent of use of specific components and the medium of access of PdPR by learners;and their subjective evaluation of and difficulties faced with online schooling. Data confirm a significant socio-economic divide by income and location in access to EdTech as well as home support provisions. Most importantly, online lessons are irregular, and a significant proportion of students find online programmes challenging to follow. Given the dissatisfaction, most prefer to return to onsite education once schools reopen.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80886125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Handbook on Global Value Chains, edited by Stefano Ponte, Gary Gereffi and Gale Raj-Rechhert","authors":"Cassey Lee","doi":"10.1355/ae39-3g","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae39-3g","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86520496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Indonesia's growing middle class is the key driver of the rapid growth of the country's automotive industry over the last decade. Stable economic growth and government policies are other contributory factors, especially during the commodity boom period (2006–15). While there is some indication of improvements in the competitiveness of the industry, several structural weaknesses continue to hamper its growth. Traditionally, the industry has been dominated by Japanese car manufacturers, but Korean and Chinese carmakers have recently entered the sector. Although Japanese players have a strong comparative advantage in producing Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars, the newcomers are targeting a fresh segment—Electric Vehicles (EVs). The latter has been identified as one of the new priority industries based on global trends. This paper examines the recent developments and challenges in Indonesia's automotive industry. It examines key policies and their implications for the future of the sector.
{"title":"Indonesia's Automotive Industry: Recent Trends and Challenges","authors":"S. Negara, A. Hidayat","doi":"10.1355/ae38-2b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-2b","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Indonesia's growing middle class is the key driver of the rapid growth of the country's automotive industry over the last decade. Stable economic growth and government policies are other contributory factors, especially during the commodity boom period (2006–15). While there is some indication of improvements in the competitiveness of the industry, several structural weaknesses continue to hamper its growth. Traditionally, the industry has been dominated by Japanese car manufacturers, but Korean and Chinese carmakers have recently entered the sector. Although Japanese players have a strong comparative advantage in producing Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars, the newcomers are targeting a fresh segment—Electric Vehicles (EVs). The latter has been identified as one of the new priority industries based on global trends. This paper examines the recent developments and challenges in Indonesia's automotive industry. It examines key policies and their implications for the future of the sector.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"166 - 186"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47351228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Over the last sixty years, Thailand has become the "Automotive Hub of Asia", shifting from import substitution to export orientation, including an increasingly significant role in the automobile global value chain (GVC). Key contributory factors towards this shift include: (i) government incentives targeted at technologically sophisticated activities; (ii) collaborations among universities, research institutes and industry in sector-specific teaching and research programmes; and (iii) a shift in a sector-specific government promotion agency towards "intermediary" activities that facilitate collaborations among stakeholders. Local firms, through indigenous strategies and efforts, have fostered position upgrading in the GVC. The industry has upgraded from a production base to a more innovation and R&D-intensive one, while becoming more product-specific. Outstanding challenges lie in the adoption of new technologies. While robotization in production has been implemented extensively, the push for production of electric vehicles (EVs) has yet to succeed.
{"title":"Technological Upgrading and Challenges in the Thai Automotive Industry","authors":"P. Intarakumnerd","doi":"10.1355/ae38-2d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-2d","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Over the last sixty years, Thailand has become the \"Automotive Hub of Asia\", shifting from import substitution to export orientation, including an increasingly significant role in the automobile global value chain (GVC). Key contributory factors towards this shift include: (i) government incentives targeted at technologically sophisticated activities; (ii) collaborations among universities, research institutes and industry in sector-specific teaching and research programmes; and (iii) a shift in a sector-specific government promotion agency towards \"intermediary\" activities that facilitate collaborations among stakeholders. Local firms, through indigenous strategies and efforts, have fostered position upgrading in the GVC. The industry has upgraded from a production base to a more innovation and R&D-intensive one, while becoming more product-specific. Outstanding challenges lie in the adoption of new technologies. While robotization in production has been implemented extensively, the push for production of electric vehicles (EVs) has yet to succeed.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"207 - 222"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45116308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This paper shows that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) benefits significantly from investments in transport infrastructure such as road, railway and port, but not as much from investments in non-transport infrastructure such as real estate. However, using data collected from several sources, including secondary data on the number of infrastructure projects already invested and earmarked to be invested as well as China's direct foreign investment to Southeast Asia, this analysis shows that non-transport infrastructure constitutes a substantially higher proportion of the total infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia than transport infrastructure since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This points to a suboptimization polemic emanating from the mismatch between the inflows of the different types of infrastructure investments and ASEAN's need for these inputs for sustainable economic growth. Domestic disharmony, regional rivalry and political conflicts between China and ASEAN as well as other obstacles such as the debt-trap worries reduce the total investment flows to Southeast Asia, exacerbating the suboptimization problem.
{"title":"Political-Economic Suboptimization of China's Belt and Road Initiative: The Case of Infrastructure Investments in Southeast Asia","authors":"J. Voon, C. Chung, S. Chan","doi":"10.1355/ae38-2f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-2f","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This paper shows that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) benefits significantly from investments in transport infrastructure such as road, railway and port, but not as much from investments in non-transport infrastructure such as real estate. However, using data collected from several sources, including secondary data on the number of infrastructure projects already invested and earmarked to be invested as well as China's direct foreign investment to Southeast Asia, this analysis shows that non-transport infrastructure constitutes a substantially higher proportion of the total infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia than transport infrastructure since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This points to a suboptimization polemic emanating from the mismatch between the inflows of the different types of infrastructure investments and ASEAN's need for these inputs for sustainable economic growth. Domestic disharmony, regional rivalry and political conflicts between China and ASEAN as well as other obstacles such as the debt-trap worries reduce the total investment flows to Southeast Asia, exacerbating the suboptimization problem.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"244 - 262"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44160227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This paper examines the Indonesian government's new microcredit programme, the Ultra Microcredit (UMi) scheme, designed to provide cheap, hassle-free loans to micro businesses (MBs) owned by the poor and vulnerable. Based on UMi's loan disbursement, the number of participating non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), the number of borrowers and its impact on the borrowers' business performance, this paper shows that the programme has so far been significantly promising in supporting the development of MBs. This study not only highlights the ways in which UMi has addressed various problems that MBs face, but also details the scheme's limitations in achieving its large-scale anti-poverty objectives. The results show that UMi's main policy challenges can be overcome by: first, shifting its distribution away from Jakarta and towards the less prosperous provinces of the country; second, improving business facilitation services; and third, complementing the scheme with other non-financial programmes.
{"title":"Indonesia's Ultra Microcredit Programme: Financing Micro Businesses, Empowering the Poor","authors":"Latif Adam, M. Soekarni, Ika Inayah","doi":"10.1355/ae38-2g","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-2g","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This paper examines the Indonesian government's new microcredit programme, the Ultra Microcredit (UMi) scheme, designed to provide cheap, hassle-free loans to micro businesses (MBs) owned by the poor and vulnerable. Based on UMi's loan disbursement, the number of participating non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), the number of borrowers and its impact on the borrowers' business performance, this paper shows that the programme has so far been significantly promising in supporting the development of MBs. This study not only highlights the ways in which UMi has addressed various problems that MBs face, but also details the scheme's limitations in achieving its large-scale anti-poverty objectives. The results show that UMi's main policy challenges can be overcome by: first, shifting its distribution away from Jakarta and towards the less prosperous provinces of the country; second, improving business facilitation services; and third, complementing the scheme with other non-financial programmes.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"263 - 280"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Vietnam's automobile industry is undergoing transformational change as the country is pursuing global and regional economic integration. While this overall policy direction is unambiguous, sectoral policy suffers from contradicting policy objectives of different ministries, lacking coordination and clarity in government-industry communication. Analysis of policy measures indicates that Vietnam briefly sought to protect the automobile industry from liberalization, but quickly abandoned these measures as they proved to be ineffective. To allow Vietnam's automobile industry to develop further, it is suggested that the government must overcome internal conflicts, improve stakeholder participation and extend support to the supplier industry, which provides most inputs for vehicle production.
{"title":"Stuck in Neutral: Vietnam's Automobile Industry Policy","authors":"M. Schröder","doi":"10.1355/ae38-2e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-2e","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Vietnam's automobile industry is undergoing transformational change as the country is pursuing global and regional economic integration. While this overall policy direction is unambiguous, sectoral policy suffers from contradicting policy objectives of different ministries, lacking coordination and clarity in government-industry communication. Analysis of policy measures indicates that Vietnam briefly sought to protect the automobile industry from liberalization, but quickly abandoned these measures as they proved to be ineffective. To allow Vietnam's automobile industry to develop further, it is suggested that the government must overcome internal conflicts, improve stakeholder participation and extend support to the supplier industry, which provides most inputs for vehicle production.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"223 - 243"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49290445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a regionwide free trade agreement (FTA) linking the ten ASEAN economies to their “+5” partners, namely Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. It covers both trade and non-trade related issues ranging from rules of origin and trade facilitation to intellectual property rights and investment. This study examines the likely impact of RCEP on trade alone, taking into account the fact that all its members are already participants in a number of other FTAs. Using latest FTA data from the WTO on imports and exports, this study reveals that tariff reduction under RCEP will erode ASEAN’s trade preferences provided by existing FTA partners, while reallocating import sources of ASEAN countries towards more efficient RCEP partners.
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on ASEAN Trade","authors":"Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy","doi":"10.1355/ae38-1f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-1f","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a regionwide free trade agreement (FTA) linking the ten ASEAN economies to their “+5” partners, namely Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. It covers both trade and non-trade related issues ranging from rules of origin and trade facilitation to intellectual property rights and investment. This study examines the likely impact of RCEP on trade alone, taking into account the fact that all its members are already participants in a number of other FTAs. Using latest FTA data from the WTO on imports and exports, this study reveals that tariff reduction under RCEP will erode ASEAN’s trade preferences provided by existing FTA partners, while reallocating import sources of ASEAN countries towards more efficient RCEP partners.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"133 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42347876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This paper employs a five-variable monetary policy transmission model within a structural vector error correction (SVEC) modelling framework for Thailand to examine the relative contributions of the policy interest rate and a monetary aggregate of real output and prices. The model is estimated using quarterly data for the 2000Q2–2019Q4 period after imposing both short- and long-term restrictions. The empirical results suggest that the policy interest rate and the monetary aggregate contribute significantly to the forecast-error-variances of real output and prices, irrespective of whether the policy interest rate or the monetary aggregate appears to be the lead variable. That a shock to the money stock contributes to real output and to prices, whether treated as a policy instrument or as an endogenously determined variable within a generalized macroeconomic system, is consistent with the implication of classical monetary theory, which suggests the existence of a long-run equilibrium relation among money, real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates. The results also support a co-integral relation among the four variables in Thailand. A major policy implication is that an inflation-targeting central bank such as the Bank of Thailand can deploy a monetary aggregate as a monetary policy instrument, particularly in a low inflation environment.
{"title":"An Investigation of the Interrelations among Macroeconomic Variables in Thailand under Inflation-Targeting for the Post-Financial Crisis Period","authors":"A. Hossain, Popkarn Arwatchanakarn","doi":"10.1355/ae38-1c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/ae38-1c","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This paper employs a five-variable monetary policy transmission model within a structural vector error correction (SVEC) modelling framework for Thailand to examine the relative contributions of the policy interest rate and a monetary aggregate of real output and prices. The model is estimated using quarterly data for the 2000Q2–2019Q4 period after imposing both short- and long-term restrictions. The empirical results suggest that the policy interest rate and the monetary aggregate contribute significantly to the forecast-error-variances of real output and prices, irrespective of whether the policy interest rate or the monetary aggregate appears to be the lead variable. That a shock to the money stock contributes to real output and to prices, whether treated as a policy instrument or as an endogenously determined variable within a generalized macroeconomic system, is consistent with the implication of classical monetary theory, which suggests the existence of a long-run equilibrium relation among money, real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates. The results also support a co-integral relation among the four variables in Thailand. A major policy implication is that an inflation-targeting central bank such as the Bank of Thailand can deploy a monetary aggregate as a monetary policy instrument, particularly in a low inflation environment.","PeriodicalId":43712,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southeast Asian Economies","volume":"38 1","pages":"51 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47113251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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