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The public–private sector wage gap in Latvia 拉脱维亚公私部门的工资差距
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1457356
Kārlis Vilerts
ABSTRACT This study investigates the public–private sector wage gap in Latvia using microdata from the labour force survey. The severity of public sector wage cuts employed as a response to the economic crisis and subsequent recovery provides a test bed to analyse whether and how the public–private sector wage gap has adjusted after consolidation-driven wage cuts. Findings reveal that the observed wage gap is slightly in favour of the public sector; however, once differences in individual characteristics and selection effects are considered, results point to a private sector wage premium. Findings also suggest that the private sector wage premium has increased since the pre-crisis period. A significant private sector wage premium raises doubts on whether a system that is reliant on discretionary fiscal measures is efficient enough in eliminating unwarranted differences in wage. In particular, whether a re-adjustment process of public sector wages works after consolidation-driven wage cuts.
摘要:本研究利用劳动力调查的微观数据调查了拉脱维亚公私部门的工资差距。公共部门为应对经济危机和随后的复苏而采取的减薪力度,提供了一个测试平台,可以分析在合并驱动的减薪之后,公私部门的工资差距是否以及如何调整。调查结果显示,观察到的工资差距略微有利于公共部门;然而,一旦考虑到个人特征和选择效应的差异,结果表明私营部门的工资溢价。调查结果还表明,自危机前以来,私营部门的工资溢价有所上升。私营部门显著的工资溢价令人怀疑,一个依赖于自由裁量的财政措施的体系,在消除不必要的工资差异方面是否足够有效。特别是,在合并驱动的工资削减之后,公共部门工资的重新调整过程是否有效。
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引用次数: 8
The Baltic banking system in the enlarged European Union: the effect of the financial crisis on efficiency 扩大后的欧盟中的波罗的海银行体系:金融危机对效率的影响
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1376430
J. L. Gallizo, Jordi Moreno, M. Salvador
ABSTRACT The main objective of this study is to analyse the evolution of banking efficiency in the Baltic countries after their accession to the EU and during the financial crisis, and to check whether there are significant differences between these countries as a consequence of their particular characteristics. To that end, we have estimated the evolution of cost and profit efficiency in the Baltic countries in the context of the enlarged EU during the period 2000–2013 using Bayesian stochastic frontier models. Our results show the greater robustness of Estonian banking in terms of profits during the financial crisis in comparison to their neighbours. Additionally, Baltic banking has recovered its profit efficiencies very quickly after the financial crisis. However, cost efficiency is still at low levels in line with the other European countries.
本研究的主要目的是分析波罗的海国家在加入欧盟后和金融危机期间银行效率的演变,并检查这些国家之间是否存在显著差异,因为它们的特殊特征的结果。为此,我们使用贝叶斯随机前沿模型估计了2000-2013年欧盟扩大背景下波罗的海国家成本和利润效率的演变。我们的研究结果表明,在金融危机期间,与邻国相比,爱沙尼亚银行业在利润方面表现出更强的稳健性。此外,波罗的海银行业在金融危机后迅速恢复了盈利效率。然而,与其他欧洲国家相比,成本效率仍处于较低水平。
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引用次数: 6
An analysis of the primary and secondary housing market in Poland: evidence from the 17 largest cities 波兰一级和二级住房市场分析:来自17个最大城市的证据
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1344482
R. Leszczyński, K. Olszewski
ABSTRACT We analyse the determinants of prices of flats that are bought on the primary (new construction) and secondary markets (existing stock) in the 17 largest cities in Poland during the 2002–2015 period. We find that prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as income growth and drop in the unemployment or real interest rate. Interestingly, prices in the secondary market react strongly to those fundamentals than to prices in the primary market. Especially, the reaction to the real interest rate is more than twice as high. The most likely buyers on the secondary market are first-time buyers with little own capital, and need a large mortgage. On the other hand, those who buy housing in the primary market quite often sell their old flat, so they only need to acquire the difference. Our finding indicates that the primary and secondary markets need to be analysed separately.
摘要:我们分析了2002-2015年期间,波兰17个最大城市在一级(新建)和二级市场(存量)购买的公寓价格的决定因素。我们发现,价格是由经济基本面驱动的,比如收入增长和失业率或实际利率的下降。有趣的是,二级市场的价格对这些基本面的反应比一级市场的反应强烈。特别是,对实际利率的反应是实际利率的两倍多。二级市场上最有可能的买家是首次购房者,他们几乎没有自有资金,需要大笔抵押贷款。另一方面,那些在一级市场购买住房的人往往会卖掉他们的旧公寓,所以他们只需要获得差价。我们的研究结果表明,一级市场和二级市场需要分别分析。
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引用次数: 17
Forecasting the Estonian rate of inflation using factor models 使用因子模型预测爱沙尼亚的通货膨胀率
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1371976
Nicolas Reigl
ABSTRACT The paper presents forecasts of headline and core inflation in Estonia with factor models in a recursive pseudo out-of-sample framework. The factors are constructed with a principal component analysis and are then incorporated into vector autoregressive (VAR) forecasting models. The analyses show that certain factor-augmented VAR models improve upon a simple univariate autoregressive model but the forecasting gains are small and not systematic. Models with a small number of factors extracted from a large dataset are best suited for forecasting headline inflation. The results also show that models with a larger number of factors extracted from a small dataset outperform the benchmark model in the forecast of Estonian headline and, especially, core inflation.
本文提出了预测的标题和核心通货膨胀在爱沙尼亚与递归伪样本外框架因子模型。这些因素是用主成分分析构建的,然后纳入向量自回归(VAR)预测模型。分析表明,某些因子增广VAR模型对简单的单变量自回归模型进行了改进,但预测收益较小且不具有系统性。从大型数据集中提取少量因素的模型最适合预测总体通胀。结果还表明,从小型数据集中提取的大量因素的模型在预测爱沙尼亚标题,特别是核心通货膨胀方面优于基准模型。
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引用次数: 4
Influence of internet and social media presence on small, local banks’ market power 互联网和社交媒体对小型地方银行市场力量的影响
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1376856
Dariusz Filip, Krzysztof Jackowicz, Łukasz Kozłowski
ABSTRACT We study the impact of Internet and social media presence on the market power of small, local banks in Poland. We observe that small banks, which generally embraced new distribution and communication channels considerably later than the large commercial banks, had to forego a portion of their market power to defend market shares or reach new customers. The size of the market power sacrifice was greater when small banks competed against numerous banks within their local markets and particularly substantial when they were outnumbered mostly by large commercial banks.
我们研究了互联网和社交媒体对波兰小型地方银行市场力量的影响。我们观察到,小型银行通常比大型商业银行更晚接受新的分销和沟通渠道,它们不得不放弃一部分市场力量来捍卫市场份额或获得新客户。当小银行在当地市场与众多银行竞争时,市场支撑力的牺牲规模更大,当它们在数量上主要被大型商业银行超过时,市场支撑力的牺牲幅度尤其大。
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引用次数: 14
Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus 人口老龄化对白俄罗斯养老金制度的影响
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000
Katerina Lisenkova, Kateryna Bornukova
ABSTRACT Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich overlapping generation model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9% of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms, including the reform which will start in 2017. To avoid a deficit without reform, pension benefits would have to be substantially reduced. The increase of retirement age to 65 for both genders has a strong positive effect on sustainability of the pension system and keeps the deficit below 2% of GDP.
摘要白俄罗斯目前有一个相对慷慨的现收现付养老金制度,但人口老龄化加上最近的经济增长问题将很快使其不可持续。我们建立了一个丰富的白俄罗斯经济重叠世代模型,这表明如果不进行改革,养老基金将陷入持续且不断增长的赤字,到2055年将达到GDP的9%。我们还计算了几项参数养老金改革的财政预测,包括将于2017年开始的改革。为了在不进行改革的情况下避免赤字,养老金福利必须大幅减少。将男女退休年龄提高到65岁对养老金制度的可持续性产生了强烈的积极影响,并将赤字保持在GDP的2%以下。
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引用次数: 7
Estimation of energy productivity change in Baltic Sea and EU non-Baltic Sea states 波罗的海和欧盟非波罗的海国家能源生产率变化的估计
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1309785
Ming-Chung Chang, Ching-Hua Yu
ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea states and the European Commission initiated the intergovernmental Baltic Sea Energy Cooperation (BASREC) in 1998 and established it the following year. The aim of this study is to examine and compare the energy productivity change, energy technical change, and energy efficiency change in Baltic Sea states and non-Baltic Sea states using the Malmquist-DEA approach. The main results indicate that energy productivity in the Baltic Sea states has been improved, with this mainly caused by energy technology progression; however, the improvement in energy efficiency is not so obvious. In addition, the subsample includes 10 former communist countries, showing that the source of their energy productivity change not only comes from energy technical change, but also energy efficiency changes. In other words, the catching up effect in the 10 former communist countries is more obvious than that in the Baltic Sea states.
波罗的海国家和欧盟委员会于1998年发起了政府间波罗的海能源合作,并于次年成立。本研究的目的是使用Malmquist DEA方法检验和比较波罗的海国家和非波罗的海各国的能源生产率变化、能源技术变化和能源效率变化。主要结果表明,波罗的海国家的能源生产率有所提高,这主要是由于能源技术的进步;然而,能源效率的提高并不那么明显。此外,子样本包括10个前共产主义国家,表明其能源生产率变化的来源不仅来自能源技术变化,还来自能源效率变化。换句话说,10个前共产主义国家的追赶效应比波罗的海国家更明显。
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引用次数: 7
Monetary policy transmission: the case of Lithuania 货币政策传导:以立陶宛为例
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2016.1242330
Julius Stakėnas, R. Stasiukynaitė
ABSTRACT We study the effect of a (standard) monetary policy shock in the euro area on the Lithuanian economy. We employ a structural vector autoregressive model incorporating variables from both the euro area and Lithuania. The model exhibits a block exogenous structure to account for the fact that Lithuania is a small economy. In general, we find that a monetary policy shock in the euro area has a stronger effect on the Lithuanian than it does on the euro area economy, though the effects are not statistically significant, preventing firm conclusions. We further broaden our analysis employing a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model for the three Baltic states. PVAR model results suggest a stronger impact of monetary policy than that estimated using the Lithuanian model and a quite considerable degree of variation over time in the strength of monetary policy transmission.
摘要:我们研究了欧元区(标准)货币政策冲击对立陶宛经济的影响。我们采用了一个包含欧元区和立陶宛变量的结构向量自回归模型。该模型展示了一个块外生结构,以解释立陶宛是一个小型经济体的事实。总的来说,我们发现欧元区的货币政策冲击对立陶宛人的影响比对欧元区经济的影响更大,尽管这种影响在统计上并不显著,无法得出确切的结论。我们对波罗的海三国采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型进一步扩大了分析范围。PVAR模型的结果表明,货币政策的影响比使用立陶宛模型估计的要大,货币政策传导强度随时间的变化也相当大。
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引用次数: 7
Implications of the European integration: revisiting the hypothesis of ‘hub-and-spokes’ model 欧洲一体化的启示:重新审视“轮辐”模型假说
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1298876
Tinatin Akhvlediani, Katarzyna Śledziewska
ABSTRACT Already in 1994, Baldwin predicted the formation of the ‘hub-and-spokes’ model to describe the outcomes of economic integration across the European Union (EU) implying marginalization of the new EU member states. We examine the validity of this hypothesis by putting an emphasis on Visegrad group of countries (The Visegrad four (V-4): Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and investigate the impact of the European integration scheme on their export performances. To conduct the analysis, we estimate the augmented gravity model for the panel data of the exports of V-4 with the rest of the world by employing pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood estimator. Estimation results do not favour the creation of the ‘hub-and-spokes’ model, but rather demonstrate that integration within the EU was quite beneficial for V-4 without giving the origin neither to their peripherization nor to the loss of markets of the natural trade partners.
摘要早在1994年,鲍德温就预测了“轮辐”模型的形成,以描述整个欧盟(EU)经济一体化的结果,这意味着新欧盟成员国的边缘化。我们通过强调维谢格拉德国家集团(维谢格拉德四国(V-4):波兰、捷克共和国、斯洛伐克和匈牙利)来检验这一假设的有效性,并调查欧洲一体化计划对其出口绩效的影响。为了进行分析,我们通过使用伪泊松最大似然估计量来估计V-4与世界其他地区出口的面板数据的增广重力模型。估计结果不支持建立“轮辐”模型,而是表明欧盟内部的一体化对V-4非常有利,既不考虑其边缘化,也不考虑自然贸易伙伴市场的损失。
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引用次数: 7
Is the success of an issuer an investor success? Evidence from Polish IPOs 发行人的成功就是投资者的成功吗?波兰IPO的证据
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1308781
Bogumiła Brycz, Tadeusz Dudycz, M. Kowalski
ABSTRACT This article examines the factors that determine IPO success in raising equity capital, and how this success translates into investor success. The study is based on a sample of IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2011. We find that pre-IPO profitability is a strong and positive signal for investors that translates into a higher offer price and therefore determines the success of the issuance. However, companies with high IPO success do not provide investors with better performance after going public, nor do they provide protection before the common phenomenon of long-term underperformance. A large-scale value migration between shareholders occurs in companies that achieve IPO success. The investor belief that pre-IPO profitability is a signal of the future earnings potential of an IPO firm indicates that they probably use simple heuristics and have a representativeness bias.
摘要本文探讨了决定IPO成功筹集股本的因素,以及这种成功如何转化为投资者的成功。该研究基于1998年至2011年华沙证券交易所首次公开募股的样本。我们发现,IPO前的盈利能力对投资者来说是一个强烈而积极的信号,转化为更高的发行价格,从而决定了发行的成功。然而,IPO成功率高的公司并没有在上市后为投资者提供更好的业绩,也没有在长期表现不佳的普遍现象之前提供保护。在IPO成功的公司中,股东之间会发生大规模的价值迁移。投资者认为IPO前的盈利能力是IPO公司未来盈利潜力的信号,这表明他们可能使用简单的启发式方法,并具有代表性偏见。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Baltic Journal of Economics
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