In the most recent decades, the economy has changed its relationship over time. Transactions tend to go faster and short-term behaviors have spread across the board. There is evidence that this phenomenon explains some aspects of the post-2008 crisis. In particular, the financial markets follow an extraordinary dynamic of acceleration that leads to a good part of the operations taking place in microseconds (something evident in what it has to do with high frequency trading systems). All this creates very important challenges for democratic politics as a whole, and above all, for the process of economic policiymaking. The crucial problem is that, although the latter have also tended to accelerate, they are systematically lagging behind the capital markets (that is, there is a dynamic of open desynchronization between politics and finance), which hinders their possibilities of achieving their goals. objectives effectively. All this forces us to rethink the role of lags, now turned into an element of the first order to advance in the definition of optimal policy. This article focuses on how the time pressure factor has exerted a notable impulse to some important institutional changes in the political-economic processes.
{"title":"Finanzas-relámpago y política económica","authors":"X. Arias","doi":"10.7203/IREP.2.1.17748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7203/IREP.2.1.17748","url":null,"abstract":"In the most recent decades, the economy has changed its relationship over time. Transactions tend to go faster and short-term behaviors have spread across the board. There is evidence that this phenomenon explains some aspects of the post-2008 crisis. In particular, the financial markets follow an extraordinary dynamic of acceleration that leads to a good part of the operations taking place in microseconds (something evident in what it has to do with high frequency trading systems). All this creates very important challenges for democratic politics as a whole, and above all, for the process of economic policiymaking. The crucial problem is that, although the latter have also tended to accelerate, they are systematically lagging behind the capital markets (that is, there is a dynamic of open desynchronization between politics and finance), which hinders their possibilities of achieving their goals. objectives effectively. All this forces us to rethink the role of lags, now turned into an element of the first order to advance in the definition of optimal policy. This article focuses on how the time pressure factor has exerted a notable impulse to some important institutional changes in the political-economic processes.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"2 1","pages":"24-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45837881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-8-43
A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova
The article explores behavior features of different group of private investors on the Moscow and Saint Petersburg stock exchanges. It was found that the change in the size of the biggest group of registered broker clients on Moscow Exchange depended heavily on growth of real income and key characteristics of passive forms of income, such as deposit rates, government bond returns and stock dividend yield. Active broker clients on the Moscow stock exchange mainly focused on more speculative factors, such as equity premium, equity volatility, foreign stocks’ returns and exchange rate. The growth of individual investment accounts depended on factors of both active and speculative forms of income. The quantity of broker clients on Saint-Petersburg Exchange relied on an even wider set of factors, which included not only risk and returns on national markets, but also characteristics of foreign assets and exchange rates. The two Russian exchanges are interrelated. The bond and equity premium growth makes the national market more attractive than foreign assets. The expansion of private investors on the stock market in Russia, which began in 2018, is explained not only by a search for other investment instruments apart from deposits, especially under the ongoing decline in interest rates, but also by a growing interest in individual investment accounts. The latter represent a positive example of state influence on people’s savings through tax policy. Another factor of the raise of private investments was the implementation of modern investment platforms and active promotion of broker services by major banks. The financial crisis which begun in March 2020can become a serious challenge for millions of private investors who had opened accounts in the previous two years
{"title":"Determinants of Private Investors’ Behavior on Russian Stock Market","authors":"A. Abramov, A. Radygin, M. Chernova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-8-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-8-43","url":null,"abstract":"The article explores behavior features of different group of private investors on the Moscow and Saint Petersburg stock exchanges. It was found that the change in the size of the biggest group of registered broker clients on Moscow Exchange depended heavily on growth of real income and key characteristics of passive forms of income, such as deposit rates, government bond returns and stock dividend yield. Active broker clients on the Moscow stock exchange mainly focused on more speculative factors, such as equity premium, equity volatility, foreign stocks’ returns and exchange rate. The growth of individual investment accounts depended on factors of both active and speculative forms of income. The quantity of broker clients on Saint-Petersburg Exchange relied on an even wider set of factors, which included not only risk and returns on national markets, but also characteristics of foreign assets and exchange rates. The two Russian exchanges are interrelated. The bond and equity premium growth makes the national market more attractive than foreign assets. The expansion of private investors on the stock market in Russia, which began in 2018, is explained not only by a search for other investment instruments apart from deposits, especially under the ongoing decline in interest rates, but also by a growing interest in individual investment accounts. The latter represent a positive example of state influence on people’s savings through tax policy. Another factor of the raise of private investments was the implementation of modern investment platforms and active promotion of broker services by major banks. The financial crisis which begun in March 2020can become a serious challenge for millions of private investors who had opened accounts in the previous two years","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"15 1","pages":"8-43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48962006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper advances the proposition that economics, as a discipline, gives rewards that favor the “hard” and disfavor the “soft.” Such bias leads economic research to ignore important topics and problems that are difficult to approach in a “hard” way—thereby resulting in “sins of omission.” This paper argues for reexamination of current institutions for publication and promotion in economics—as it also argues for greatly increased tolerance in norms for publication and promotion as one way of alleviating narrow methodological biases. (JEL A11, B40)
{"title":"Sins of Omission and the Practice of Economics","authors":"George A. Akerlof","doi":"10.1257/jel.20191573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20191573","url":null,"abstract":"This paper advances the proposition that economics, as a discipline, gives rewards that favor the “hard” and disfavor the “soft.” Such bias leads economic research to ignore important topics and problems that are difficult to approach in a “hard” way—thereby resulting in “sins of omission.” This paper argues for reexamination of current institutions for publication and promotion in economics—as it also argues for greatly increased tolerance in norms for publication and promotion as one way of alleviating narrow methodological biases. (JEL A11, B40)","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1257/jel.20191573","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47740334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-152-175
Olga Ismagilova, K. Khadzhi
Cross-border data flows management and privacy protection are placed high in the international digital agenda due to unprecedented growth in the volume and pace of data collection, processing, storage and transfer globally. Despite the high importance of data flows regulation and its serious influence on all enterprises involved in digital economy, there is little research conducted in Russia and systemizing the national strategies in this sphere of regulation. The article provides an overview of the existing approaches of different countries to data protection, transfer (cross-border included) and storage, analyses the impact of regulation on international trade flows, and develops proposals for possible measures to reduce costs for companies in the digital age. The research discovers that today most countries of the world regulate personal data and other categories of sensitive data flows through the introduction of either a separate law or data protection provisions in the relevant sectoral laws. The countries’ approaches range from a complete ban on the cross-border transfer of all or certain categories of data to foreign countries to complete liberalization in this area. The most common approach is the introduction of one or several restrictions from the set of measures related to cross-border data transfers: data localization requirement; limitations on the number or type of countries to which sensitive data can be transferred without additional requirements; and the requirement of the personal data subject’s consent or responsible public authorities’ permission.
{"title":"Global Experience in Regulating Data Protection, Transfer and Storage","authors":"Olga Ismagilova, K. Khadzhi","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-152-175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-152-175","url":null,"abstract":"Cross-border data flows management and privacy protection are placed high in the international digital agenda due to unprecedented growth in the volume and pace of data collection, processing, storage and transfer globally. Despite the high importance of data flows regulation and its serious influence on all enterprises involved in digital economy, there is little research conducted in Russia and systemizing the national strategies in this sphere of regulation. The article provides an overview of the existing approaches of different countries to data protection, transfer (cross-border included) and storage, analyses the impact of regulation on international trade flows, and develops proposals for possible measures to reduce costs for companies in the digital age. The research discovers that today most countries of the world regulate personal data and other categories of sensitive data flows through the introduction of either a separate law or data protection provisions in the relevant sectoral laws. The countries’ approaches range from a complete ban on the cross-border transfer of all or certain categories of data to foreign countries to complete liberalization in this area. The most common approach is the introduction of one or several restrictions from the set of measures related to cross-border data transfers: data localization requirement; limitations on the number or type of countries to which sensitive data can be transferred without additional requirements; and the requirement of the personal data subject’s consent or responsible public authorities’ permission.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"15 1","pages":"152-175"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43350271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-44-73
N. Redkin
The paper presents an adaptation of modern behavioral economic theory to portfolio investment in the Russian stock market. The author analyzes the possibility of optimizing the investment portfolio for a private investor using portfolio correction based on changes in monetary policy indicators available in media sources. The behavioral model of portfolio selection is used, based on the value of shares on Moscow Exchange and taking into account a reference point in the theory of prospects in the form of indicators regulated by the Bank of Russia. The key rate and the standard of required reserves, inflation, the average rate on bank deposits, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble are used as monetary policy indicators. The behavioral model is a modified theory of average variance, in which the calculation of profitability and risk is carried out according to the main behavioral theories, namely the cumulative prospect and mental accounting theory. The author considers various options for forming a portfolio in accordance with the level of risk aversion. As a result of comparing the models of optimization of the average variance portfolio and the models based on the modified theory of average variance using behavioral factors, higher risk-return ratios of the modified models were revealed in the forecast period, while for the analyzed period all models were located on the line of Markowitz efficient portfolio. As a further development of the portfolio behavioral theory, the possibilities of adapting the model are proposed not only depending on the points of reference, but also depending on changes in risk acceptance coefficients and probability estimates.
{"title":"Optimization of Investment Portfolios Taking into Account the Behavioral Perception of Monetary Policy","authors":"N. Redkin","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-44-73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-44-73","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents an adaptation of modern behavioral economic theory to portfolio investment in the Russian stock market. The author analyzes the possibility of optimizing the investment portfolio for a private investor using portfolio correction based on changes in monetary policy indicators available in media sources. The behavioral model of portfolio selection is used, based on the value of shares on Moscow Exchange and taking into account a reference point in the theory of prospects in the form of indicators regulated by the Bank of Russia. The key rate and the standard of required reserves, inflation, the average rate on bank deposits, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble are used as monetary policy indicators. The behavioral model is a modified theory of average variance, in which the calculation of profitability and risk is carried out according to the main behavioral theories, namely the cumulative prospect and mental accounting theory. The author considers various options for forming a portfolio in accordance with the level of risk aversion. As a result of comparing the models of optimization of the average variance portfolio and the models based on the modified theory of average variance using behavioral factors, higher risk-return ratios of the modified models were revealed in the forecast period, while for the analyzed period all models were located on the line of Markowitz efficient portfolio. As a further development of the portfolio behavioral theory, the possibilities of adapting the model are proposed not only depending on the points of reference, but also depending on changes in risk acceptance coefficients and probability estimates.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"15 1","pages":"44-73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49288338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-106-133
A. Zubarev, O. Bekirova
This paper studies bank defaults in the Russian Federation in recent years. Firstly, the Central Bank of Russia tightened prudential regulation in 2013. Secondly, a decrease in oil prices and economic sanctions resulted in a crisis in 2014–2015 with a huge depreciation of the national currency, which influenced the Russian banking sector substantially. Almost half of banks in Russia have been closed in the last 6 years. Through binary logistic models of bank defaults based on data for Q3 2013 through Q1 2019, the paper reveals the key factors which had an influence on the sustainability of Russian banks. The main result is that involvement in classical banking exposes banks to default risks. Excessive reserves appeared to be an important indicator of default as well. A special measure of liquidity creation was constructed. We found that high levels of liquidity creation increased the probability of bank failure. It is also worth mentioning that excessive liquidity creation put higher risks on a given bank in the crisis period. We can conclude that regulatory authorities should pay attention to high liquidity creators, especially in the group of small and medium-sized banks. We also found some evidence of an improvement in prudential regulation by the Bank of Russia. Separate models were estimated for the sample of 150 larger banks, which is more homogeneous and is of primary interest for the regulator. A number of variables, including the level of liquidity creation, turned out to be insignificant; however, high reserve values for possible losses still increase the probability of default to a large extent. Logistic panel regressions were also considered as an alternative specification.
{"title":"Analysis of Bank Default Factors in 2013–2019","authors":"A. Zubarev, O. Bekirova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-106-133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-106-133","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies bank defaults in the Russian Federation in recent years. Firstly, the Central Bank of Russia tightened prudential regulation in 2013. Secondly, a decrease in oil prices and economic sanctions resulted in a crisis in 2014–2015 with a huge depreciation of the national currency, which influenced the Russian banking sector substantially. Almost half of banks in Russia have been closed in the last 6 years. Through binary logistic models of bank defaults based on data for Q3 2013 through Q1 2019, the paper reveals the key factors which had an influence on the sustainability of Russian banks. The main result is that involvement in classical banking exposes banks to default risks. Excessive reserves appeared to be an important indicator of default as well. A special measure of liquidity creation was constructed. We found that high levels of liquidity creation increased the probability of bank failure. It is also worth mentioning that excessive liquidity creation put higher risks on a given bank in the crisis period. We can conclude that regulatory authorities should pay attention to high liquidity creators, especially in the group of small and medium-sized banks. We also found some evidence of an improvement in prudential regulation by the Bank of Russia. Separate models were estimated for the sample of 150 larger banks, which is more homogeneous and is of primary interest for the regulator. A number of variables, including the level of liquidity creation, turned out to be insignificant; however, high reserve values for possible losses still increase the probability of default to a large extent. Logistic panel regressions were also considered as an alternative specification.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48407863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-134-151
Zahra Farhadi
The overall tax avoidance perspective suggests that managers who seek opportunities to avoid paying taxes are pursuing financial abuse by creating a lack of transparency in the financial reporting environment. It seems that many companies are involved in tax avoidance. For this reason, it is crucial to determine the factors influencing the rate of tax avoidance. In this study, it is assumed that, in weak information environments, there is much incentive to avoid paying taxes. Thus, in this research, the effect of financial information comparability on aggressive tax avoidance with respect to the information environment has been investigated. To this end, 88 companies were examined during the period from 2011 to 2016. The required financial information was extracted by referring to the financial statements using Rahavard Novin software; summarized, classified and calculated in Excel software; and finally, analyzed through EViews software. By using the combined data and taking advantage of the generalized least squares regression test, it was established that the impact of financial statement comparability on aggressive tax avoidance in companies with a weaker information environment was more significant at a 90% confidence level. On the other hand, in a situation where there is a weak information environment, the ability to compare financial statements plays a significant role in reducing tax avoidance. Thus, it can reduce companies’ involvement in avoiding daring taxes, especially in a weak information environment. Furthermore, no reliable evidence was found concerning the effectiveness of financial information comparability in aggressive tax avoidance at a 95% confidence level.
{"title":"The Impact of Financial Information Comparability on Aggressive Tax Avoidance with Respect to the Information Environment","authors":"Zahra Farhadi","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-134-151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-134-151","url":null,"abstract":"The overall tax avoidance perspective suggests that managers who seek opportunities to avoid paying taxes are pursuing financial abuse by creating a lack of transparency in the financial reporting environment. It seems that many companies are involved in tax avoidance. For this reason, it is crucial to determine the factors influencing the rate of tax avoidance. In this study, it is assumed that, in weak information environments, there is much incentive to avoid paying taxes. Thus, in this research, the effect of financial information comparability on aggressive tax avoidance with respect to the information environment has been investigated. To this end, 88 companies were examined during the period from 2011 to 2016. The required financial information was extracted by referring to the financial statements using Rahavard Novin software; summarized, classified and calculated in Excel software; and finally, analyzed through EViews software. By using the combined data and taking advantage of the generalized least squares regression test, it was established that the impact of financial statement comparability on aggressive tax avoidance in companies with a weaker information environment was more significant at a 90% confidence level. On the other hand, in a situation where there is a weak information environment, the ability to compare financial statements plays a significant role in reducing tax avoidance. Thus, it can reduce companies’ involvement in avoiding daring taxes, especially in a weak information environment. Furthermore, no reliable evidence was found concerning the effectiveness of financial information comparability in aggressive tax avoidance at a 95% confidence level.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49097691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-74-105
M. Malkina, V. Ovchinnikov
We studied the specific properties of the cryptocurrency market. Guided by the concept of implied volatility, we investigated the asymmetric reaction of the market to news. Based on the concept of realized volatility, we verified the hypothesis of herding behavior in the market. To test the properties of the market, we used a combination of methods, starting from the analysis of statistics of search queries, interpreted as proxies of information demand from professional market participants and the “wide crowd”, and ending with advanced Markov-Switching GARCH models and heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV-J-models). As a result, we found various types of asymmetric reactions of the cryptocurrency market to news related to both the general direction of its dynamics (growth or decrease) and the amplitude of return fluctuations (high or low volatility). During the upward price rally and overheating of the market, investors deliberately avoided the bad news; thereby the asymmetry in the cryptocurrency market was inverse (to the adopted leverage effect). On the contrary, during the downward price rally, market participants exhibited an overreaction to bad news. In addition, the asymmetric reaction to the news observed during the period of low market volatility actually disappeared when the amplitude of cryptocurrency return volatility increased. The behavior of short-term investors was also varied in the study period. While during the growth of the market, small speculators were more likely to follow their own trading strategies, during the hype they borrowed the trading practices of the largest players. We also revealed the effect of training among small investors: over time, they became less prone to provocations from large players, which did not allow the 2019 rally to surpass its counterpart in 2017 in terms of both return oscillations and duration.
{"title":"Cryptocurrency Market: Overreaction to News and Herd Instincts","authors":"M. Malkina, V. Ovchinnikov","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-74-105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2020-3-74-105","url":null,"abstract":"We studied the specific properties of the cryptocurrency market. Guided by the concept of implied volatility, we investigated the asymmetric reaction of the market to news. Based on the concept of realized volatility, we verified the hypothesis of herding behavior in the market. To test the properties of the market, we used a combination of methods, starting from the analysis of statistics of search queries, interpreted as proxies of information demand from professional market participants and the “wide crowd”, and ending with advanced Markov-Switching GARCH models and heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV-J-models). As a result, we found various types of asymmetric reactions of the cryptocurrency market to news related to both the general direction of its dynamics (growth or decrease) and the amplitude of return fluctuations (high or low volatility). During the upward price rally and overheating of the market, investors deliberately avoided the bad news; thereby the asymmetry in the cryptocurrency market was inverse (to the adopted leverage effect). On the contrary, during the downward price rally, market participants exhibited an overreaction to bad news. In addition, the asymmetric reaction to the news observed during the period of low market volatility actually disappeared when the amplitude of cryptocurrency return volatility increased. The behavior of short-term investors was also varied in the study period. While during the growth of the market, small speculators were more likely to follow their own trading strategies, during the hype they borrowed the trading practices of the largest players. We also revealed the effect of training among small investors: over time, they became less prone to provocations from large players, which did not allow the 2019 rally to surpass its counterpart in 2017 in terms of both return oscillations and duration.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"15 1","pages":"74-105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42184072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study how demand responds to the rebranding of existing state schools as autonomous ‘academies’ in the context of a radical and large-scale reform to the English education system. The academy programme encouraged schools to opt out of local state control and funding, but provided parents and students with limited information on the expected benefits. We use administrative data on school applications for three cohorts of students to estimate whether this rebranding changes schools’ relative popularity. We find that families – particularly higher income, White British – are more likely to rank converted schools above non-converted schools on their applications. We also find that it is mainly schools that are high-performing, popular and proximate to families’ homes that attract extra demand after conversion. Overall, the patterns we document suggest that families read academy conversion as a signal of future quality gains – although this signal is in part misleading as we find limited evidence that conversion causes improved performance.
{"title":"School choice during a period of radical school reform. Evidence from academy conversion in England","authors":"Marco Bertoni, S. Gibbons, Olmo Silva","doi":"10.1093/EPOLIC/EIAA023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EPOLIC/EIAA023","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study how demand responds to the rebranding of existing state schools as autonomous ‘academies’ in the context of a radical and large-scale reform to the English education system. The academy programme encouraged schools to opt out of local state control and funding, but provided parents and students with limited information on the expected benefits. We use administrative data on school applications for three cohorts of students to estimate whether this rebranding changes schools’ relative popularity. We find that families – particularly higher income, White British – are more likely to rank converted schools above non-converted schools on their applications. We also find that it is mainly schools that are high-performing, popular and proximate to families’ homes that attract extra demand after conversion. Overall, the patterns we document suggest that families read academy conversion as a signal of future quality gains – although this signal is in part misleading as we find limited evidence that conversion causes improved performance.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EPOLIC/EIAA023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46165850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Based on narrative identification, we construct a novel comprehensive dataset of pension reform measures in OECD countries from 1970 to 2017. We then study the timing of these measures. Our main and new result is that business cycle indicators are important for their timing: a worsening makes contractionary measures more likely and expansionary measures less likely. The demography matters only in the sense that the OECD-wide demography explains the general reform trend for a country. We find no evidence that country-specific or short-run demographic developments matter. We discuss a conceptual framework with adjustment costs of changing pension generosity that can account for both the reform responsiveness to the business cycle and the lack of responsiveness to changes in demographic forecasts. We also discuss potential policy implications of our findings.
{"title":"What drives pension reforms in the OECD?","authors":"R. Beetsma, F. Klaassen, W. Romp, R. V. Maurik","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiaa011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiaa011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Based on narrative identification, we construct a novel comprehensive dataset of pension reform measures in OECD countries from 1970 to 2017. We then study the timing of these measures. Our main and new result is that business cycle indicators are important for their timing: a worsening makes contractionary measures more likely and expansionary measures less likely. The demography matters only in the sense that the OECD-wide demography explains the general reform trend for a country. We find no evidence that country-specific or short-run demographic developments matter. We discuss a conceptual framework with adjustment costs of changing pension generosity that can account for both the reform responsiveness to the business cycle and the lack of responsiveness to changes in demographic forecasts. We also discuss potential policy implications of our findings.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"35 1","pages":"357-402"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/epolic/eiaa011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44105830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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