This paper investigates the effect of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the UK and the EU in December 2020 on UK-EU trade in goods up to December 2021. The 2016 referendum introduced uncertainty, but new trade barriers between the UK and the EU were not put in place until the new agreement, the TCA, entered into force in January 2021. Using a set of different econometric techniques, and looking up to the end of the first year of the implementation of the TCA, we find no evidence that the 2016 referendum had any impact on aggregate UK-EU trade relative to comparator trade flows. On the other hand, our results show that the TCA reduced UK trade with the EU, but asymmetrically for exports and imports. After a sharp drop of around 41% in January 2021, UK exports to the EU quickly recovered in the following months. This pattern of recovery was not the case for UK imports from the EU, which were negatively impacted throughout of 2021, with a cumulative loss over the first year of implementation between -24% and -28%. Asymmetric effects between exports and imports do not appear to be driven by difference in product composition of the two flows. Instead, we find evidence that a plausible explanation for these differential effects is the relative importance of the EU market for UK firms, in comparison to the importance of the UK market for EU firms.
{"title":"The effects of leaving the EU on the geography of UK trade","authors":"Michael Gasiorek, Nicolò Tamberi","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad018","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper investigates the effect of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the UK and the EU in December 2020 on UK-EU trade in goods up to December 2021. The 2016 referendum introduced uncertainty, but new trade barriers between the UK and the EU were not put in place until the new agreement, the TCA, entered into force in January 2021. Using a set of different econometric techniques, and looking up to the end of the first year of the implementation of the TCA, we find no evidence that the 2016 referendum had any impact on aggregate UK-EU trade relative to comparator trade flows. On the other hand, our results show that the TCA reduced UK trade with the EU, but asymmetrically for exports and imports. After a sharp drop of around 41% in January 2021, UK exports to the EU quickly recovered in the following months. This pattern of recovery was not the case for UK imports from the EU, which were negatively impacted throughout of 2021, with a cumulative loss over the first year of implementation between -24% and -28%. Asymmetric effects between exports and imports do not appear to be driven by difference in product composition of the two flows. Instead, we find evidence that a plausible explanation for these differential effects is the relative importance of the EU market for UK firms, in comparison to the importance of the UK market for EU firms.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42928676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Henrik Andersson, Per Engström, Katarina Nordblom, Susanna Wanander
We study what induces delinquent wage earners to pay their taxes due, using high-quality administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency. We find a strong effect of the standard enforcement regime: a threat of having the debt handed over to the Enforcement Agency increases payments by more than 9 percentage points (from a baseline of 58%). When including actual enforcement, payment increases by 19 percentage points compared to those who do not risk enforcement. In a field experiment, we compare these effects of standard enforcement to those involving much milder nudges, consisting of letters reminding tax delinquents to pay their taxes due. We find that a “pure nudge” (i.e., the inclusion of an extra sheet of paper with no valuable information) has an effect of around 7 percentage points for those who do not risk enforcement upon non-payment, i.e, an effect almost as large as for the threat of enforcement. However, the same nudge has no detectable effect on the group that is subject to enforcement. Finally, we find a small additional effect on payments from social norm messages both for those who risk enforcement and for those who do not.
{"title":"Nudges and Threats: Soft vs Hard Incentives for Tax Compliance","authors":"Henrik Andersson, Per Engström, Katarina Nordblom, Susanna Wanander","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study what induces delinquent wage earners to pay their taxes due, using high-quality administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency. We find a strong effect of the standard enforcement regime: a threat of having the debt handed over to the Enforcement Agency increases payments by more than 9 percentage points (from a baseline of 58%). When including actual enforcement, payment increases by 19 percentage points compared to those who do not risk enforcement. In a field experiment, we compare these effects of standard enforcement to those involving much milder nudges, consisting of letters reminding tax delinquents to pay their taxes due. We find that a “pure nudge” (i.e., the inclusion of an extra sheet of paper with no valuable information) has an effect of around 7 percentage points for those who do not risk enforcement upon non-payment, i.e, an effect almost as large as for the threat of enforcement. However, the same nudge has no detectable effect on the group that is subject to enforcement. Finally, we find a small additional effect on payments from social norm messages both for those who risk enforcement and for those who do not.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41808755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Munroe, A. Nosach, Moisés Pedrozo, Eleonora Guarnieri, J. Riaño, Ana Tur-Prats, F. Caicedo
This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. 1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. 2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees, and war. 3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes.
{"title":"The Legacies of War for Ukraine","authors":"E. Munroe, A. Nosach, Moisés Pedrozo, Eleonora Guarnieri, J. Riaño, Ana Tur-Prats, F. Caicedo","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. 1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. 2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees, and war. 3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41373110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Giacomo De Giorgi discussion of: Religious symbols in schools","authors":"G. De Giorgi","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44980855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-46-81
Aleksandra Kolomiyets, Sergey Fedorov
The energy crises during 2021 and 2022 in the USA and EU have shown that technological transformation can have negative consequences for the electric power industry by causing power outages and sharp fluctuations in market prices. This prompted the authors to determine the role of institutions in overcoming problems in intra-sectoral coordination. After clustering the electric power industry’s alternatives for institutional organization in different countries using OECD data and Ward's method, the conclusion is that, in addition to economic and technological factors, the characteristics of social orders (as outlined by D. North et al.) influence the choice of a regulatory model. Moreover, after comparing the results of clustering with the dynamics of investment in the industry and of electricity prices, the authors maintain that these factors are significantly correlated with institutional organization. Therefore, management alternatives for ensuring stable electricity prices and incentives for investment in the industry should take into account not only economic and technological factors but also the social order established in the country
{"title":"From Hierarchies to Markets: The Electric Power Industry’s Path to Consumer Welfare","authors":"Aleksandra Kolomiyets, Sergey Fedorov","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-46-81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-46-81","url":null,"abstract":"The energy crises during 2021 and 2022 in the USA and EU have shown that technological transformation can have negative consequences for the electric power industry by causing power outages and sharp fluctuations in market prices. This prompted the authors to determine the role of institutions in overcoming problems in intra-sectoral coordination. After clustering the electric power industry’s alternatives for institutional organization in different countries using OECD data and Ward's method, the conclusion is that, in addition to economic and technological factors, the characteristics of social orders (as outlined by D. North et al.) influence the choice of a regulatory model. Moreover, after comparing the results of clustering with the dynamics of investment in the industry and of electricity prices, the authors maintain that these factors are significantly correlated with institutional organization. Therefore, management alternatives for ensuring stable electricity prices and incentives for investment in the industry should take into account not only economic and technological factors but also the social order established in the country","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135597212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-58-77
Elena A. Fedorova, Varvara G. Komletsova, Mariya K. Tregubova
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) from offshoring and developed countries on the efficiency of Russian companies. The empirical basis for this analysis includes the financial performance of 18,804 domestic companies from 2013 to 2020, which provided 150,432 data points. The research methodology included panel regression and DEA data shell analysis, which enables comprehensive analysis of a company’s performance in comparison with other companies. Both horizontal and vertical spillover effects were determined in order to trace the effect of offshore companies. Horizontal spillover consists of the side effects on productivity that exclusively national firms are subject to when operating in the same industry alongside firms with foreign investment. Vertical spillover is due to reciprocal and direct links between foreign companies and their suppliers and buyers. This study indicates that efficiency measured in terms of spillover effects is greater for companies with FDI from white offshores than for companies with FDI from gray and black offshores. Furthermore, the efficiency of investment from developed countries in terms of spillover effects is greater than that of investment from gray and black offshores. The spillover effects from investment by gray and black offshores is negligible because of the return of capital. These results may be informative for the top management of Russian enterprises, shareholders, boards of directors, specialists from financial and tax services, analysts, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Federal Tax Service and other interested parties.
{"title":"Impact of Foreign Direct Investment From Offshoring on the Efficiency of Russian Companies","authors":"Elena A. Fedorova, Varvara G. Komletsova, Mariya K. Tregubova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-58-77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-58-77","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) from offshoring and developed countries on the efficiency of Russian companies. The empirical basis for this analysis includes the financial performance of 18,804 domestic companies from 2013 to 2020, which provided 150,432 data points. The research methodology included panel regression and DEA data shell analysis, which enables comprehensive analysis of a company’s performance in comparison with other companies. Both horizontal and vertical spillover effects were determined in order to trace the effect of offshore companies. Horizontal spillover consists of the side effects on productivity that exclusively national firms are subject to when operating in the same industry alongside firms with foreign investment. Vertical spillover is due to reciprocal and direct links between foreign companies and their suppliers and buyers. This study indicates that efficiency measured in terms of spillover effects is greater for companies with FDI from white offshores than for companies with FDI from gray and black offshores. Furthermore, the efficiency of investment from developed countries in terms of spillover effects is greater than that of investment from gray and black offshores. The spillover effects from investment by gray and black offshores is negligible because of the return of capital. These results may be informative for the top management of Russian enterprises, shareholders, boards of directors, specialists from financial and tax services, analysts, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Federal Tax Service and other interested parties.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135952958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-82-109
Andrey Kaukin, Vladimir Kosarev, Evgenia Miller
The sanctions imposed on Russia in February 2022 have affected the current and future revenues of the domestic energy sector as well as the tax revenues derived from it, while they have also made public welfare losses due to accumulated imbalances in the fuel and energy sector more sensitive to the Russian economy (for example, through subsidies for oil refining). Developing recommendations for adjusting the way the Russian oil refining sector is subsidized is now an urgent matter. This paper estimates the factor payment for the use of oil rent, considers the structure of its distribution in the Russian economy, and provides a scenario analysis of the consequences of imposing sanctions, which include a “price ceiling,” changes in tax regulation, and an increase in the processing depth of refineries. Based on this analysis, reforms in the taxation of the Russian oil refining sector are proposed. The results of the scenario analysis show that, under the current conditions, it is extremely important to continue modernizing oil refineries. A potential reduction in the production of petroleum products would result in the smallest losses industry-wide, provided that it is achieved by suspending the least efficient refineries (those with low GVA in the absence of subsidies) and by ending subsidies for friendly economies
{"title":"Prospects for Russian Oil and Refining Industries Under Sanctions","authors":"Andrey Kaukin, Vladimir Kosarev, Evgenia Miller","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-82-109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-82-109","url":null,"abstract":"The sanctions imposed on Russia in February 2022 have affected the current and future revenues of the domestic energy sector as well as the tax revenues derived from it, while they have also made public welfare losses due to accumulated imbalances in the fuel and energy sector more sensitive to the Russian economy (for example, through subsidies for oil refining). Developing recommendations for adjusting the way the Russian oil refining sector is subsidized is now an urgent matter. This paper estimates the factor payment for the use of oil rent, considers the structure of its distribution in the Russian economy, and provides a scenario analysis of the consequences of imposing sanctions, which include a “price ceiling,” changes in tax regulation, and an increase in the processing depth of refineries. Based on this analysis, reforms in the taxation of the Russian oil refining sector are proposed. The results of the scenario analysis show that, under the current conditions, it is extremely important to continue modernizing oil refineries. A potential reduction in the production of petroleum products would result in the smallest losses industry-wide, provided that it is achieved by suspending the least efficient refineries (those with low GVA in the absence of subsidies) and by ending subsidies for friendly economies","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135597004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emeric Henry discussion of: Women in politics","authors":"Emeric Henry","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49473036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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