Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500072
S. Gnangnon
The world has experienced in recent years a rising anti-trade and anti-globalization sentiment, which would likely jeopardize recent efforts by the international trade community, in particular Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to promote multilateral trade liberalization (MTP). The current article investigates the impact of MTP on countries’ terms of trade volatility. Results based on a large panel dataset suggest that MTP exerts a significant reducing effect on countries’ terms of trade volatility. However, this impact appears to be dependent on countries’ development level. The take-home message is that greater cooperation on trade matters, including among WTO Members would help promote multilateral trade liberalization, which would surely contribute to reducing terms of trade volatility, for the benefits of all countries, in particular developing economies.
{"title":"Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Terms of Trade Volatility","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500072","url":null,"abstract":"The world has experienced in recent years a rising anti-trade and anti-globalization sentiment, which would likely jeopardize recent efforts by the international trade community, in particular Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to promote multilateral trade liberalization (MTP). The current article investigates the impact of MTP on countries’ terms of trade volatility. Results based on a large panel dataset suggest that MTP exerts a significant reducing effect on countries’ terms of trade volatility. However, this impact appears to be dependent on countries’ development level. The take-home message is that greater cooperation on trade matters, including among WTO Members would help promote multilateral trade liberalization, which would surely contribute to reducing terms of trade volatility, for the benefits of all countries, in particular developing economies.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90447989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500011
Hassan Almahmood, Munif Al Munyif, T. Willett
While there has been considerable research on currency crises, relatively little attention has been given to whether they are successful or not. We investigate this question for a set of 32 emerging market economies for the period 1980–2014. In the literature, many different measures of currency crises have been used, but almost all use some variants of exchange market pressure indices that look at changes in exchange rates, international reserves, and often also interest rates. These vary mainly in their specific specifications such as how to weigh the different variables. Therefore, to check the robustness of our results we use six different specifications. A second type of measure is also sometimes used. These focus only on large depreciations of exchange rates. While often called measures of currency crises they are really only measures of currency crashes. We thus take this approach as a measure of successful attacks. Using a wider range of thresholds than studies such as Lavean and Valencia’s, a well-known dataset of different types of financial crises, we still find that the vast majority of speculative attacks are not successful.
{"title":"Most Speculative Attacks Do Not Succeed: Currency Crises and Currency Crashes","authors":"Hassan Almahmood, Munif Al Munyif, T. Willett","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500011","url":null,"abstract":"While there has been considerable research on currency crises, relatively little attention has been given to whether they are successful or not. We investigate this question for a set of 32 emerging market economies for the period 1980–2014. In the literature, many different measures of currency crises have been used, but almost all use some variants of exchange market pressure indices that look at changes in exchange rates, international reserves, and often also interest rates. These vary mainly in their specific specifications such as how to weigh the different variables. Therefore, to check the robustness of our results we use six different specifications. A second type of measure is also sometimes used. These focus only on large depreciations of exchange rates. While often called measures of currency crises they are really only measures of currency crashes. We thus take this approach as a measure of successful attacks. Using a wider range of thresholds than studies such as Lavean and Valencia’s, a well-known dataset of different types of financial crises, we still find that the vast majority of speculative attacks are not successful.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"1850001"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89547457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500047
Kansho Piotr Otsubo
In this paper, we compare and analyze the differences in the effects of fiscal and monetary policy using time-varying parameter structural vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR). Specifically, we estimate a 5-variable TVP-VAR model using monthly data from March 2001 to August 2017. The estimation results indicated the following four points. First, expansionary fiscal policy can impact GDP faster than an expansionary monetary policy. Second, expansionary fiscal policy has lowered prices. Third, an expansionary monetary policy can increase GDP more persistently than an expansionary fiscal policy during unconventional monetary policy periods. Finally, expansionary monetary policy has raised prices. These estimation results reveal that if the Japanese government wants to strongly boost GDP alone, it should use fiscal policy alongside monetary policy because fiscal policy can immediately raise GDP. If the Japanese government seeks moderate increases in both GDP and prices, it is more effective to use monetary policy alone without increasing fiscal expenditure.
{"title":"The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?","authors":"Kansho Piotr Otsubo","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500047","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we compare and analyze the differences in the effects of fiscal and monetary policy using time-varying parameter structural vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR). Specifically, we estimate a 5-variable TVP-VAR model using monthly data from March 2001 to August 2017. The estimation results indicated the following four points. First, expansionary fiscal policy can impact GDP faster than an expansionary monetary policy. Second, expansionary fiscal policy has lowered prices. Third, an expansionary monetary policy can increase GDP more persistently than an expansionary fiscal policy during unconventional monetary policy periods. Finally, expansionary monetary policy has raised prices. These estimation results reveal that if the Japanese government wants to strongly boost GDP alone, it should use fiscal policy alongside monetary policy because fiscal policy can immediately raise GDP. If the Japanese government seeks moderate increases in both GDP and prices, it is more effective to use monetary policy alone without increasing fiscal expenditure.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"5 1","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82786889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500059
Vera Silva, Rosa Forte
Exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) are two alternative foreign markets entry modes. From a theoretical point of view, there are arguments which support two different relationships between FDI and exports: complementary and substitution. Most empirical studies, however, have concluded with a complementary relationship. Since existing studies at more disaggregated levels have focused solely on the manufacturing industry, this paper aims at studying the relationship between FDI and home country exports based on a large sample of Portuguese firms, belonging to manufacturing and services, for the period 2006–2012. Using a fixed-effects model, results obtained suggest that the control of heterogeneity between firms is essential to clarify the relationship between FDI and exports and this has been a factor often overlooked.
{"title":"The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Exports","authors":"Vera Silva, Rosa Forte","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500059","url":null,"abstract":"Exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) are two alternative foreign markets entry modes. From a theoretical point of view, there are arguments which support two different relationships between FDI and exports: complementary and substitution. Most empirical studies, however, have concluded with a complementary relationship. Since existing studies at more disaggregated levels have focused solely on the manufacturing industry, this paper aims at studying the relationship between FDI and home country exports based on a large sample of Portuguese firms, belonging to manufacturing and services, for the period 2006–2012. Using a fixed-effects model, results obtained suggest that the control of heterogeneity between firms is essential to clarify the relationship between FDI and exports and this has been a factor often overlooked.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"4 1","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79691570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500023
S. Gnangnon
This paper complements the literature on the impact of donor-countries’ trade on their supply of Official Development Aid relating to the trade sector (ODATRADE). It investigates whether the impact of donor-countries’ trade balance (including overall trade balance in goods and services, trade balance in goods vis-a-vis developing and developed countries, and trade balance in services) on ODATRADE depends on the level of donor-countries’ output gap. Relying on a sample of 22 donor-countries over the period 1967–2015, the empirical analysis shows that donors’ output gap does matter for the impact of trade balance variables on ODATRADE.
{"title":"Donors’ Trade and Their Supply of Development Aid Related to the Trade Sector: Does Donors’ Output Gap Matter?","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500023","url":null,"abstract":"This paper complements the literature on the impact of donor-countries’ trade on their supply of Official Development Aid relating to the trade sector (ODATRADE). It investigates whether the impact of donor-countries’ trade balance (including overall trade balance in goods and services, trade balance in goods vis-a-vis developing and developed countries, and trade balance in services) on ODATRADE depends on the level of donor-countries’ output gap. Relying on a sample of 22 donor-countries over the period 1967–2015, the empirical analysis shows that donors’ output gap does matter for the impact of trade balance variables on ODATRADE.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"22 1-2","pages":"1850002"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72586670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500035
Jie Li, A. Ouyang
This paper formally tests how the synchronization of stock and labor markets can affect income inequality. The responsiveness of stock and labor markets to a monetary expansion is different, i.e., a stock market, in general, tends to respond much faster than labor market. When there is monetary expansion, stock market participants (usually the rich) can enjoy capital gains quicker than labor market participants (usually the poor). However, if a labor market is more synchronized with a stock market, the capital gains a rich can enjoy in a stock market would be faster matched by labor market response, leading to a shrinking income inequality. We empirically confirm the prediction with different synchronization measures, controlling endogeneity issues.
{"title":"Stock and Labor Market Synchronization and Income Inequality: Evidence from OECD Countries","authors":"Jie Li, A. Ouyang","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500035","url":null,"abstract":"This paper formally tests how the synchronization of stock and labor markets can affect income inequality. The responsiveness of stock and labor markets to a monetary expansion is different, i.e., a stock market, in general, tends to respond much faster than labor market. When there is monetary expansion, stock market participants (usually the rich) can enjoy capital gains quicker than labor market participants (usually the poor). However, if a labor market is more synchronized with a stock market, the capital gains a rich can enjoy in a stock market would be faster matched by labor market response, leading to a shrinking income inequality. We empirically confirm the prediction with different synchronization measures, controlling endogeneity issues.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"157 1","pages":"1850003"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79941391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-15DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500060
Jie Q. Guo
The U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940 requires mutual fund boards to determine fair value of their portfolios. With mutual fund investments on foreign securities, there is a potential market timing issue when markets evolve between foreign and domestic market close. However, there is little research to date relating to fair value pricing procedures for foreign fixed-income securities. In this paper, we discuss the market timing problems and present a statistical approach utilizing treasury futures to fair value pricing of foreign fixed income securities. Timely valuation adjustment of foreign fixed income securities is the best approach to fend off arbitrageurs than raising transaction fees or setting minimum holding period for mutual funds.
{"title":"Fair Value Adjusted Pricing of Mutual Funds Using Treasury Futures","authors":"Jie Q. Guo","doi":"10.1142/S1793993318500060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993318500060","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940 requires mutual fund boards to determine fair value of their portfolios. With mutual fund investments on foreign securities, there is a potential market timing issue when markets evolve between foreign and domestic market close. However, there is little research to date relating to fair value pricing procedures for foreign fixed-income securities. In this paper, we discuss the market timing problems and present a statistical approach utilizing treasury futures to fair value pricing of foreign fixed income securities. Timely valuation adjustment of foreign fixed income securities is the best approach to fend off arbitrageurs than raising transaction fees or setting minimum holding period for mutual funds.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"29 1","pages":"1850006"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78225071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-11DOI: 10.1142/S1793993317500156
M. Molnár
With persisting slower growth worldwide and in China, over-capacity in some heavy industry sectors, declining profitability, and intensifying competition from other, lower-cost emerging economies, corporate behavior in China needs to change and focus more on efficiency and sustainability. A larger proportion of firms, including state-owned enterprises, should improve corporate governance practices. To this end, fraudulent corporate practices must be halted and State assets need to be better managed. Reforms are under way or envisaged that will help improve corporate performance and, more broadly, deliver more resilient and environmentally sustainable growth and continuing progress in living standards.
{"title":"Revitalizing China’s Economy by Improved Corporate Governance and State-Owned Enterprise Reforms","authors":"M. Molnár","doi":"10.1142/S1793993317500156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993317500156","url":null,"abstract":"With persisting slower growth worldwide and in China, over-capacity in some heavy industry sectors, declining profitability, and intensifying competition from other, lower-cost emerging economies, corporate behavior in China needs to change and focus more on efficiency and sustainability. A larger proportion of firms, including state-owned enterprises, should improve corporate governance practices. To this end, fraudulent corporate practices must be halted and State assets need to be better managed. Reforms are under way or envisaged that will help improve corporate performance and, more broadly, deliver more resilient and environmentally sustainable growth and continuing progress in living standards.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"24 1","pages":"1750015"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2017-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74475695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-11DOI: 10.1142/S1793993317500144
S. Gnangnon
This paper adds to the existing literature on the macroeconomic determinants of Aid for Trade (AfT). It investigates the impact of both multilateral trade policy liberalization and the export share of AfT-recipient countries in global trade market on the AfT amounts that accrue to these countries. Using a panel dataset comprising 133 AfT-recipient-countries, over the period 1995–2015, the empirical analysis shows that both the impact of multilateral trade policy liberalization and of the recipient countries’ export share in the world trade market on AfT depend on recipient-countries’ level of development as well as on their domestic trade policy. Additionally, in the context of multilateral trade liberalization, donors tend to reward recipient-countries’ effort to secure a higher export share in the international trade market.
{"title":"Multilateral Trade Liberalization, Export Share in the International Trade Market and Aid for Trade","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1142/S1793993317500144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993317500144","url":null,"abstract":"This paper adds to the existing literature on the macroeconomic determinants of Aid for Trade (AfT). It investigates the impact of both multilateral trade policy liberalization and the export share of AfT-recipient countries in global trade market on the AfT amounts that accrue to these countries. Using a panel dataset comprising 133 AfT-recipient-countries, over the period 1995–2015, the empirical analysis shows that both the impact of multilateral trade policy liberalization and of the recipient countries’ export share in the world trade market on AfT depend on recipient-countries’ level of development as well as on their domestic trade policy. Additionally, in the context of multilateral trade liberalization, donors tend to reward recipient-countries’ effort to secure a higher export share in the international trade market.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"116 4 1","pages":"1-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2017-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84229850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-11DOI: 10.1142/S179399331750017X
Stéphanie Guichard
Making the most of international capital flows by allowing countries to reap their benefits while reducing associated risks has always been a challenge and has led to considerable economic research over the past 30 years. This challenge became even more acute following the Global Financial Crisis, as new concerns emerged related to the complexity of global financial relations, their role in shock transmission as well as how to protect countries from financial instability. Against this background, recent research has focussed on understanding better the implications of financial globalization for economic stability and the design of policies. This literature review takes stock of these recent developments including the discussion on the risks associated with corporate foreign indebtedness, the role of the global financial cycle in driving financial instability, new findings on the real impact of international capital flows and ongoing debates on the role of capital controls.
{"title":"10 Years after the Global Financial Crisis: What Have We Learnt About International Capital Flows?","authors":"Stéphanie Guichard","doi":"10.1142/S179399331750017X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S179399331750017X","url":null,"abstract":"Making the most of international capital flows by allowing countries to reap their benefits while reducing associated risks has always been a challenge and has led to considerable economic research over the past 30 years. This challenge became even more acute following the Global Financial Crisis, as new concerns emerged related to the complexity of global financial relations, their role in shock transmission as well as how to protect countries from financial instability. Against this background, recent research has focussed on understanding better the implications of financial globalization for economic stability and the design of policies. This literature review takes stock of these recent developments including the discussion on the risks associated with corporate foreign indebtedness, the role of the global financial cycle in driving financial instability, new findings on the real impact of international capital flows and ongoing debates on the role of capital controls.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"75 1","pages":"1-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2017-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77113295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：