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Consumption Optimization in G7 Countries: Evidence of Heterogeneous Asymmetry in Income and Price Differentials 七国集团国家的消费优化:收入和价格差异异质性不对称的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-09 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500028
E. Uche, B. Chang, Raheel Gohar
The lack of comprehensive empirical narratives about the effects of income and price differentials, as well as possible distributional asymmetries on consumption in G7 countries, compelled this study by using both ARDL and Quantile ARDL models. NARDL results indicate that positive shocks in income have significant and positive effects on consumption in all countries. Moreover, evidence from the Quantile ARDL model indicates that positive and significant impacts were momentary except at the 95th quantile of consumption distributions in Canada. Furthermore, price variations negatively affected consumption in all G7 countries and across all distributions, with evidence of panic buying in Italy, the US and at the 5th quantile in Japan. Meanwhile, there is evidence of asymmetric effects from income and price variations on consumption in all G7 countries, whereas the influence of income variations on consumption is heterogeneous in Canada. Moreover, the asymmetric effects of price differentials were consistent across all the distributions in all the countries. Overall, to ensure consumption optimization and by extension, economic growth, differentiated policies to respond to income and price variations at all times are of the essence.
由于缺乏关于七国集团国家收入和价格差异影响的全面经验叙述,以及可能的分配不对称对消费的影响,迫使本研究同时使用ARDL和分位数ARDL模型。NARDL结果表明,收入的积极冲击对所有国家的消费都有显著的积极影响。此外,分位数ARDL模型的证据表明,除了加拿大消费分布的第95分位数外,积极和显著的影响是短暂的。此外,价格变化对所有七国集团国家和所有分布的消费产生了负面影响,有证据表明,意大利、美国和日本的第五分位数出现了恐慌性购买。同时,有证据表明,在所有七国集团国家中,收入和价格变化对消费的影响是不对称的,而在加拿大,收入变化对消费的影响是不均匀的。此外,价格差异的不对称影响在所有国家的所有分配中都是一致的。总的来说,为了确保消费优化,进而确保经济增长,在任何时候都必须采取差异化的政策来应对收入和价格的变化。
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引用次数: 7
Corporation Tax, the Exchange Rate, and Cross-Border Firm Mobility 公司税、汇率和跨国企业流动性
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-30 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993321500150
Wataru Johdo
In this paper, we extend a new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model to examine the effects of a corporate tax reduction on home and foreign countries. The feature of this open economy model is that cross-border relocation of firms is allowed. We show that (i) a reduction in the home corporate tax rate induces an exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) when the degree of cross-border firm mobility is large (small) and (ii) when the degree of cross-border firm mobility is large (small), a reduction in corporate tax is beneficial (detrimental) to the domestic country but detrimental (beneficial) to the foreign country.
在本文中,我们扩展了一个新的开放经济宏观经济学(NOEM)模型来考察企业减税对国内外的影响。这种开放经济模式的特点是允许企业跨境迁移。我们证明(i)当跨国企业流动性大(小)时,降低本国企业税率会导致汇率升值(贬值);(ii)当跨国企业流动性大(小)时,降低公司税对本国有利(有害),但对外国不利(有利)。
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引用次数: 0
External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters 当债务评级重要时,外债与经济增长
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-29 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993321500162
L. Hung
The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.
本文通过考虑债务的安全性(以主权债务评级为衡量标准)来研究经济增长对外债供给的依赖模式。横截面回归方法基于145个发达和发展中经济体的样本,这些样本具有1990-2019年期间的平均数据。经济增长呈u型曲线,对外债务供给的增长速度先下降后上升。一个可能的解释取决于主权债务评级。在外债供给不足的情况下,债务供给增加会降低债务评级,从而降低经济增长率。但对于足够高的债务供应,更多的债务提高了他们的评级,提高了增长率。这些结果在控制经济增长的各种决定因素和固定效应面板回归上是稳健的。
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引用次数: 1
The Nonlinear Impact of Institutional Quality on International Reserves: International Evidence 制度质量对国际储备的非线性影响:国际证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-08 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993321500149
C. Law, Siew-Voon Soon, K. Ehigiamusoe
This paper investigates the nonlinear effect of institutional quality on the holding of international reserves by applying the two-step system generalized method of moments on data consisting of 67 countries from 1996 to 2016. The hypothesis is that the association between institutional quality and international reserves has an inverted U pattern. The coefficient sign of the institutional quality and its square term supports the hypothesis. Besides, the marginal effects suggest that the higher the institutional quality index, the lower the demand for reserves. The outputs indicate the importance of good institutional quality in reducing the overdependence on international reserves.
本文采用两步系统广义矩量法对1996 - 2016年67个国家的数据进行分析,研究了制度质量对国际储备持有的非线性影响。假设制度质量与国际储备之间存在倒U型关系。制度质量的系数符号及其平方项支持这一假设。此外,边际效应表明,制度质量指数越高,准备金需求越低。产出表明良好的体制质量对于减少对国际储备的过度依赖具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Effects of Trade Liberalization–Evidence from China’s Pilot Free Trade Zone 贸易自由化的环境效应——来自中国自由贸易试验区的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993321500137
Lianghu Wang, Zhao-yang Wang, Yatian Ma
Free trade zone (FTZ) in China has been demonstrating remarkable achievements since its establishment, yet its effects on the environment in the zones cannot be ignored. However, there is still a lack of research on the impact of the quasi-natural experiment in the China pilot FTZ on China’s environment. Based on this, this paper uses panel data from 196 cities in China from 2010 to 2017 and uses the propensity score matching and difference in difference (PSM-DID) model to empirically test the environmental effects of the establishment of the FTZ. The result shows that there is an obvious causal relationship between the establishment of the FTZ and environmental quality. The establishment of the FTZ has exacerbated the environmental pollution problem in the pilot zone. Through a series of robustness tests, it is concluded that the estimated results of the benchmark model are robust. However, after a further study on whether the effect of the FTZ on environment is time varying, it was found that the effects of the FTZ on the environmental pollution in the test zones gradually weakened over time, which means that with the gradual maturity of China’s free trade pilot zone, the positive effect on environmental improvement will gradually highlight.
中国自由贸易区自成立以来取得了举世瞩目的成就,但其对区内环境的影响也不容忽视。然而,中国自贸试验区准自然实验对中国环境影响的研究仍然缺乏。在此基础上,本文利用2010 - 2017年中国196个城市的面板数据,运用PSM-DID模型实证检验自贸区建设的环境效应。结果表明,自由贸易区的建立与环境质量之间存在明显的因果关系。自贸区的建立加剧了试验区的环境污染问题。通过一系列稳健性检验,得出基准模型的估计结果是稳健性的结论。然而,在进一步研究自贸区对环境的影响是否具有时变性后,我们发现自贸区对试验区环境污染的影响随着时间的推移逐渐减弱,这意味着随着中国自由贸易试验区的逐渐成熟,其对环境改善的积极作用将逐渐凸显。
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引用次数: 6
Lending Relationship in the Traditional Credit Market — Implications for Credit Risk Management Strategy in Micro Credit Institutions 传统信贷市场中的借贷关系——对小额信贷机构信贷风险管理策略的启示
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-26 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993321500125
Embun Suryani, Hermanto, S. Hidayati, I. N. A. Putra, D. Syah
Asymmetric information increases the credit rationing of micro-enterprises. Lender–borrower relationships help to provide this information, thereby increasing the availability of loans. This study aims to investigate the relationship between micro-lenders and micro clients. It is accomplished by describing how such relationships are developed, and analyzing these relationships’ impact on the availability and credit term using multivariate regression. The results showed that the strength of lender–borrower relationships positively impacted credit access, but it did not significantly impact the credit term. Furthermore, the amount of income and loan purpose, as the proxies of business characteristics, negatively impacted credit access. These results highlight the critical role of the lender–borrower relationship and business characteristics in the risk management strategy and the sustainability of microfinance institutions.
信息不对称增加了微型企业的信贷配给。借贷关系有助于提供这些信息,从而增加贷款的可用性。本研究旨在探讨小额贷款机构与小额客户之间的关系。它是通过描述这些关系是如何发展的,并使用多元回归分析这些关系对可用性和信贷期限的影响来完成的。结果表明,借贷关系的强度对信贷获取有正向影响,但对信贷期限没有显著影响。此外,收入金额和贷款用途作为业务特征的代理,对信贷获取产生负向影响。这些结果突出了借贷关系和业务特征在风险管理策略和小额信贷机构的可持续性中的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Productive Capacities, Economic Growth and Economic Growth Volatility in Developing Countries: Does Structural Economic Vulnerability Matter? 发展中国家的生产能力、经济增长和经济增长波动性:结构性经济脆弱性重要吗?
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-19 DOI: 10.20944/PREPRINTS202104.0491.V1
S. Gnangnon
Recent years' global shocks (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) and environmental shocks - such as natural disasters - have heightened the vulnerability of developing countries to future shocks, and can compromise their development prospects. International institutions and researchers have advocated that the strengthening of productive capacities in these countries would help them enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable development. The present paper has examined the effect of productive capacities on economic growth and economic growth volatility in developing countries, in particular when they face a high level of structural economic vulnerability. The analysis covers 117 developing countries over the period 2000-2018. It shows that productive capacities do not only promote economic growth, but also reduce economic growth volatility. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability reduces economic growth, in particular when it exceeds a certain level, and induces greater volatility of economic growth. Interestingly, the findings suggest that productive capacities promote economic growth and reduce economic growth volatility in countries that face a high degree of structural economic vulnerability. These findings support the recommendation by international institutions and researchers that if they were to enhance the resilience of their economies to shocks, and promote sustainable economic growth, developing countries (in particular the poorest ones) should strengthen their productive capacities.
近年来的全球冲击(如2008年金融危机和2019冠状病毒病大流行)和环境冲击(如自然灾害)加剧了发展中国家对未来冲击的脆弱性,并可能损害其发展前景。国际机构和研究人员主张,加强这些国家的生产能力将有助于它们增强经济抵御冲击的能力,并促进可持续发展。本文件审查了生产能力对发展中国家经济增长和经济增长波动的影响,特别是当它们面临高度的结构性经济脆弱性时。该分析涵盖了2000年至2018年期间117个发展中国家。这表明,生产能力不仅能促进经济增长,还能降低经济增长的波动性。另一方面,结构性经济脆弱性降低了经济增长,特别是当经济增长超过一定水平时,并导致经济增长的更大波动性。有趣的是,研究结果表明,在面临高度结构性经济脆弱性的国家,生产能力促进经济增长并减少经济增长波动。这些发现支持了国际机构和研究人员的建议,即发展中国家(特别是最贫穷的国家)如果要增强其经济抵御冲击的能力,并促进可持续的经济增长,就应该加强其生产能力。
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引用次数: 7
Restrictive Policy to Curb Capital Flows Volatility 限制性政策抑制资本流动波动
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-17 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993321500101
Chokri Zehri
We examine the role of the restrictive policy, through capital controls, in reducing the capital flows volatility. The study highlights the effects of these controls to dampen international financial shocks. Using quarterly data of 28 emerging economies over the period between 1999 and 2019, three empirical approaches are applied, dynamic panel data, ARDL, and local projections models. Four indexes of capital controls have contributed to the finding that a tighter level of capital controls reduces the sensitivity of capital flows to monetary and exchange rate shocks. These findings on the benefits of capital controls are particularly asymmetric according to the differences between controls on inflows and outflows, and the differences between floating and pegged exchange rate regimes.
我们考察了限制性政策的作用,通过资本管制,在减少资本流动的波动性。该研究强调了这些控制措施对抑制国际金融冲击的影响。本文利用1999年至2019年28个新兴经济体的季度数据,采用了三种实证方法:动态面板数据、ARDL和地方预测模型。资本管制的四个指数有助于发现,更严格的资本管制水平降低了资本流动对货币和汇率冲击的敏感性。鉴于资本流入和流出管制之间的差异,以及浮动汇率制度和盯住汇率制度之间的差异,这些关于资本管制好处的研究结果尤其不对称。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Asymmetric Effects of Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility on Pakistan–China Commodity Trade 第三国汇率波动对中巴商品贸易的不对称效应研究
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993321500083
Ahmed Usman, N. Apergis, Sofia Anwar
Keeping in view the idea of the third-country effect by Cushman, the analysis attempts to capture the asymmetric impact of third-country exchange rate volatility on Pakistan–China commodity trade. The empirical analysis is based on the annual data for 14 industries that export from Pakistan to China and 34 industries that import to Pakistan from China. The findings of the study confirm that nonlinear models generate more significant results both in the short and long runs. Moreover, the empirical findings suggest that the asymmetric assumption alone is not enough, and instead, we should use it along with the third economy effect.
考虑到库什曼的第三国效应,该分析试图捕捉第三国汇率波动对巴基斯坦-中国商品贸易的不对称影响。实证分析基于14个巴基斯坦对华出口行业和34个从中国向巴基斯坦进口行业的年度数据。研究结果证实,无论在短期还是长期,非线性模型都能产生更显著的结果。此外,实证结果表明,不对称假设本身是不够的,我们应该将其与第三经济效应结合使用。
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引用次数: 3
Threshold Effect of Raw Material Prices on Economic Growth of African Countries 原材料价格对非洲国家经济增长的门槛效应
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-27 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993321500095
Houngbedji Sèwanoude´ Honore´
We study the nonlinear effects of raw material prices measured by that of cotton product on the economic growth of a sample of African countries for the period of 1991–2019. Using the procedure for determining endogenous thresholds (Hansen, 1999) [Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368], the study revealed that raw material prices positively affect economic growth when the prices reach a threshold above 96.1. These results indicate that to be effective, any economic policy measure aimed at accelerating the economic growth of these commodity-dependent countries must take into account the level of raw material price indices, the quality of governance, and the level of financial development.
本文研究了以棉花产品价格衡量的原材料价格对1991-2019年非洲国家经济增长的非线性影响。使用确定内源性阈值的程序(Hansen, 1999)[非动态面板中的阈值效应:估计、测试和推断]。[j][计量经济学学报,93,345-368],研究表明,当原材料价格达到96.1以上的阈值时,原材料价格对经济增长具有正向影响。这些结果表明,任何旨在加速这些依赖商品的国家的经济增长的经济政策措施要有效,必须考虑到原材料价格指数的水平、治理质量和金融发展水平。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy
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