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Global Trade Flows and the Role of Bank Financing: Policy Path for Mitigating Associated Environmental Impacts in Import-Oriented Economies 全球贸易流动和银行融资的作用:减轻进口导向型经济体相关环境影响的政策路径
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-23 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500144
Chinazaekpere Nwani
International trade and investment flows provide a mechanism for geographical separation between production and consumption processes. In this study, countries that rely heavily on international trade to supply home demand and have reported positive net CO2 emissions from trade (TrdCO2) over the period 1991–2018 were identified. Accounting for possible distributional heterogeneity, this study examined whether the structural composition of bank credit allocation explains TrdCO2 in these countries. With the growing competition for bank credit resources, the impact of a credit allocation system that prioritizes credit demands of government and state-owned enterprises (GSEs) is modeled and compared to another scenario where the credit allocation decisions of banks rather prioritize financing needs of the private sector. The results showed that the structure of bank credit allocation significantly shapes the exposure of these countries to embodied CO2 emissions in the global trade flows. Specifically, restructuring bank credit allocation towards private sector-focused reduces TrdCO2 while a credit allocation system that allocates more credit to GSEs increases TrdCO2. By implication, bank financing of private sector activities encourages cleaner consumption and can help in mitigating trade-related environmental concerns in developing import-oriented economies.
国际贸易和投资流动为生产过程和消费过程之间的地理分离提供了一种机制。在本研究中,确定了在1991年至2018年期间严重依赖国际贸易来满足国内需求并报告贸易净二氧化碳排放量(TrdCO2)为正的国家。考虑到可能的分布异质性,本研究考察了银行信贷配置的结构构成是否解释了这些国家的TrdCO2。随着对银行信贷资源的竞争日益激烈,对优先考虑政府和国有企业(gse)信贷需求的信贷分配制度的影响进行了建模,并与银行优先考虑私营部门融资需求的信贷分配决策的另一种情况进行了比较。结果表明,银行信贷配置结构显著影响了这些国家在全球贸易流动中对隐含二氧化碳排放的暴露程度。具体而言,将银行信贷分配结构调整为以私营部门为重点可以减少TrdCO2,而将更多信贷分配给gse的信贷分配制度则会增加TrdCO2。由此可见,银行为私营部门活动提供资金鼓励更清洁的消费,并有助于减轻发展中进口导向型经济体中与贸易有关的环境问题。
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引用次数: 0
Exchange Rate Effect on the Household Consumption in BRICST Countries: Evidence from MATNARDL Model 汇率对金砖四国居民消费的影响:来自MATNARDL模型的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-27 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500107
O. F. Derindag, B. Chang, Raheel Gohar, Asma Salman
Various empirical methodologies have examined the relationship between exchange rate and household consumption expenditures. However, traditional methods fail to analyze the exchange rate effect on consumption across minor and major currency depreciation and appreciations. We attempt to extend the existing literature by examining the impact of minor and major currency appreciation and depreciation on household consumption expenditures in BRICST countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. We use an extended version of the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model called the multiple asymmetric ARDL (MATNARDL) model. Our estimates, based on the traditional NARDL model, indicate that the asymmetric effect is found in the context of India and China only. However, the MATNARDL estimates suggest that, in the long run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except India whereas, in the short run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except Turkey. Finally, this study recommends the policy implications based on the results obtained in this study.
各种实证方法研究了汇率与家庭消费支出之间的关系。然而,传统的方法无法分析汇率对货币小幅贬值和大幅升值对消费的影响。我们试图通过研究金砖四国(包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非和土耳其)的主要货币升值和贬值对家庭消费支出的影响来扩展现有文献。我们使用了非线性ARDL (NARDL)和多阈值非线性ARDL模型的扩展版本,称为多重不对称ARDL (MATNARDL)模型。基于传统的NARDL模型,我们的估计表明,不对称效应只存在于印度和中国的背景下。然而,MATNARDL的估计表明,从长期来看,除了印度之外的所有样本国家都存在不对称效应,而在短期内,除了土耳其之外的所有样本国家都存在不对称效应。最后,本研究根据研究结果提出政策建议。
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引用次数: 4
A Generalized New Keynesian Model with Wage Stickiness 考虑工资粘性的广义新凯恩斯模型
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500120
Rui Wang
In this paper, we derive a generalized version of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to study how real imperfections of labor market affect the steady state and dynamics of model given different non-zero annual target inflation rates. The main finding is that, given the same target inflation rate, wage stickiness is more distortionary than the price stickiness. The existence of positive target inflation rate can also change the first-order dynamics of model, amplifying or reducing the dynamic response of model according to the type of exogenous shocks. A relatively high target inflation rate, 2% or 3%, may be preferable to a zero target inflation rate.
本文推导了广义的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究了在不同的非零年目标通胀率条件下,劳动力市场的真实不完善对模型稳态和动态的影响。主要发现是,在目标通胀率相同的情况下,工资粘性比价格粘性更具扭曲性。正目标通胀率的存在也会改变模型的一阶动力学,根据外源冲击的类型放大或减小模型的动态响应。相对较高的目标通胀率,如2%或3%,可能比零目标通胀率更可取。
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引用次数: 0
Policies Supporting Firms in the Face of Global Financial Shocks 面对全球金融冲击支持企业的政策
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500089
Chokri Zehri, Abualhassan Jumaa Hamid Hamad
This paper studies the empirical impact of Foreign Assets Management (FAM) on companies’ capital expenditure in emerging market economies with International Financial Shocks (IFS). The empirical analysis uses annual data of 2,931 publicly listed companies in 45 emerging market economies from 2000 to 2019. We analyzed a multiplicative regression of a canonical capital expenditure Q model. The findings show that FAM positively affects companies’ capital expenditure. Moreover, financially restricted companies are more sensitive to the favorable impact of FAM compared to restricted companies. Our results highlight the relevance of considering companies’ heterogeneity when examining the effect of macro-management policies. In addition, FAM has a more favorable impact on companies’ capital expenditure in economies that concurrently use capital controls and macroprudential policy. Finally, our findings suggest that successful macro-management policies insulate capital expenditure from adverse IFS. This result highlights the role of more coordinated approaches to repel adverse international shocks.
本文研究了外国资产管理(FAM)对国际金融冲击下新兴市场经济体企业资本支出的实证影响。实证分析使用了45个新兴市场经济体2000 - 2019年2931家上市公司的年度数据。我们分析了一个典型的资本支出Q模型的乘法回归。研究结果表明,FAM对企业资本支出有积极影响。此外,财务受限公司比财务受限公司对FAM的有利影响更为敏感。我们的研究结果强调了在检验宏观管理政策的影响时考虑公司异质性的相关性。此外,在同时使用资本管制和宏观审慎政策的经济体中,FAM对公司资本支出的影响更为有利。最后,我们的研究结果表明,成功的宏观管理政策将资本支出与不利的财务状况隔离开来。这一结果突出了更协调的方法在抵御不利的国际冲击方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
International Debts Flows 国际债务流动
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500090
L. Hung, Bui Thi Hai Anh, Vo tri Thanh
This paper analyzes the dependence pattern of net debts inflows on the sovereign debts rating and the fiscal balance, on accounting for the productivity growth rate. The cross-section evidence on a sample of 149 economies for the period from 1990 to 2019 uncovers that a higher sovereign debts rating, a lower fiscal balance or a higher productivity growth is associated with more net debts inflows. Thus, the debts flows are underlined by the store of wealth accumulation across economies. Moreover, there exists a nonlinearity on the pattern of debts flows, for which the fiscal balance determines the impact of sovereign debts rating on the net debts inflows. The results are robust for panel data regression as well as case study of three economies including Japan, Thailand and Vietnam.
本文分析了净债务流入对主权债务评级和财政平衡的依赖模式,以及对生产率增长率的考虑。对1990年至2019年期间149个经济体样本的横截面证据表明,较高的主权债务评级、较低的财政平衡或较高的生产率增长与更多的净债务流入相关。因此,债务流动被各经济体的财富积累所突显。此外,债务流动模式存在非线性,财政收支平衡决定了主权债务评级对债务净流入的影响。面板数据回归以及日本、泰国和越南三个经济体的案例研究结果均具有稳健性。
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引用次数: 0
Saving, Interest Rates and Finite Horizons 储蓄、利率和有限期限
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-14 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500077
Nirai Alexander Tomass
We study the heterogeneity of interest rate effects on private saving across the age dimension. Taking income and substitution effects as given, we illustrate how in a simple life cycle model, older individuals respond less to interest rate changes than younger ones. This result is driven by the fact that older individuals have a shorter planning horizon, and consequently a lower and less interest sensitive present discounted value of future earnings. However, estimating a dynamic error components model on a global panel of countries spanning the period 1995–2014, we find that there is no evidence for there being a different interest rate effect for countries with higher old age dependency ratios. Our results stand in contrast to recent studies that find effects which are consistent with the theory.
我们研究了利率对个人储蓄的影响在不同年龄维度上的异质性。假设收入和替代效应是给定的,我们说明了在一个简单的生命周期模型中,老年人对利率变化的反应比年轻人要小。造成这一结果的原因是,老年人的规划周期较短,因此未来收入的贴现现值也较低,对利息的敏感性也较低。然而,通过对1995年至2014年期间全球各国面板的动态误差成分模型进行估计,我们发现没有证据表明老年抚养比较高的国家存在不同的利率效应。我们的结果与最近的研究结果相反,这些研究发现了与理论一致的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does Institutional Similarity Necessarily Lead to Increased Bilateral Trade? 制度相似性必然导致双边贸易增长吗?
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-14 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500053
Vu Thi Hong Van, Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen, N. K. Doanh
To shed light on the question of whether or not institutional similarity always increases bilateral trade, we divide institutional quality into the low level (one standard deviation below the mean), medium level (in between minus one and one standard deviation from the mean), and high level (one standard deviation above the mean). By applying the system-GMM estimator, we found that the institutional similarity between the two countries has a trade-boosting effect, except in cases where one or both countries have low-institutional quality. These imply that measures to enhance institutional similarity must be accompanied by policies to promote institutional adaptability.
为了阐明制度相似性是否总是会增加双边贸易的问题,我们将制度质量分为低水平(低于平均值一个标准差)、中等水平(介于平均值的负一到一个标准差之间)和高水平(高于平均值一个标准差)。通过系统- gmm估计,我们发现除了一国或两国的制度质量较低的情况外,两国之间的制度相似性具有促进贸易的作用。这意味着提高制度相似性的措施必须伴随着促进制度适应性的政策。
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引用次数: 1
Total and Net-Directional Connectedness of Cryptocurrencies During the Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Pandemic covid -19大流行前后加密货币的总体和网络定向连通性
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500041
Leavitt Ha, Nguyen Van Dai
This paper presents how volatility propagates through the cryptocurrency market. Our paper provides evidence for volatility connectedness on cryptocurrencies. The different econometric techniques, including the stochastic volatility (SVOL) model and time-varying parameter VAR models using a quasi-Bayesian local likelihood (QBLL), are applied to measure the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the largest cryptocurrencies over 2018–2021, we detect the great volatility of the cryptocurrency market are the beginning of 2019, the beginning of 2020, and throughout the year of 2021. The total connectedness values suggest that the cryptocurrency market becomes volatile as the new strains of the Covid-19 appear at the end of 2021. However, by using directional connectedness, we reveal that there are negative and positive spillovers from a specific cryptocurrency to other cryptocurrencies. The great fluctuations in the period before the COVID-19 health crisis stem from the positive resonance (symmetric) between the volatility of each cryptocurrency, while this health crisis leads to substantially positive and negative spillovers (asymmetric) of cryptocurrencies, and this makes market volatility weaker than it actually is.
本文介绍了波动性如何通过加密货币市场传播。我们的论文为加密货币的波动性连通性提供了证据。不同的计量经济学技术,包括随机波动率(SVOL)模型和使用准贝叶斯局部似然(QBLL)的时变参数VAR模型,被应用于衡量加密货币市场的波动性。利用2018-2021年最大加密货币的高频日内数据,我们发现加密货币市场在2019年初、2020年初和2021年全年的波动很大。总连通性值表明,随着新冠病毒在2021年底出现,加密货币市场将出现波动。然而,通过使用定向连通性,我们揭示了特定加密货币对其他加密货币的负面和正面溢出效应。COVID-19健康危机前的巨大波动源于每种加密货币波动之间的正共振(对称),而这次健康危机导致加密货币的积极和消极溢出效应(不对称),这使得市场波动比实际情况要弱。
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引用次数: 2
Can China’s Pilot Free Trade Zone Improve Trade Efficiency? 中国自由贸易试验区能否提高贸易效率?
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1142/s1793993322500065
Lianghu Wang, Jun Shao
In recent years, there were many researches on China Free Trade Pilot Zone (FTZ), however, there was still a lack of research on the effect of the FTZ on trade efficiency. To make up for gaps in research, this paper calculated the trade efficiency of 30 provinces in China with stochastic frontier gravity model, and then empirically tested the policy effect of the FTZ by using the propensity score matching and difference in difference (PSM-DID) method, and further analyzed the inherent mechanism. The results showed that China’s general level of trade efficiency was relatively low, while the average trade efficiency in FTZs was significantly higher. The establishment of the FTZ had a significant positive impact on trade efficiency advances. Before and after the establishment of the pilot free trade zone, the difference between the changes in the trade efficiency measurement results of the treated group provinces and the trade efficiency measurement results of the control group provinces showed the characteristics of first increasing and then decreasing, and the policy effect has a certain lag. The establishment of the FTZ significantly reduced the trade cost. The model estimated that the trade efficiency increased by 3.576% for every 1% growth of trade cost, and the policy effect of the FTZ was significantly positive, which verified the existence of the intermediary effect of trade cost.
近年来,对中国自由贸易试验区的研究较多,但对自由贸易试验区对贸易效率影响的研究还比较缺乏。为弥补研究空白,本文利用随机前沿引力模型计算了中国30个省份的贸易效率,并利用倾向得分匹配和差中之差(PSM-DID)方法实证检验了自贸区的政策效应,并进一步分析了其内在机制。结果表明,中国总体贸易效率水平相对较低,而自贸区的平均贸易效率明显较高。自贸区的建立对贸易效率的提升产生了显著的积极影响。自贸试验区建立前后,试验组省份贸易效率测度结果与对照组省份贸易效率测度结果变化的差异呈现先增大后减小的特征,政策效果具有一定的滞后性。自贸区的建立大大降低了贸易成本。模型估计,贸易成本每增长1%,贸易效率就会增长3.576%,自贸区的政策效应显著为正,验证了贸易成本中介效应的存在。
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引用次数: 5
Foreign Financial Services Adoption in Manufacturing by Asian Economies: New Index from the Global Value Chain Perspective 亚洲经济体在制造业中采用外国金融服务:全球价值链视角下的新指数
IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-21 DOI: 10.1142/s179399332250003x
Weikang Zhang, Isabel K. M. Yan, Yin-Wong Cheung
In this paper, we employ the input–output framework and recent global value chain (GVC) results to construct the index of foreign financial services adoption in manufacturing (FFSAM) that captures the role of foreign financial services in facilitating domestic manufacturing production. The FFSAM index shows that foreign financial services adoption by Asian economies has rapidly caught up with the Western world between 2007 and 2017. Asian economies tend to deploy more foreign financial services from high-income economies than low-income economies, and in high-technology manufacturing industries than low-technology manufacturing industries. Manufacturing industries that produce for domestic consumption and for exports tend to attract different groups of financial servicification providers. It is found that the FFSAM index is affected by the GVC position, financial institution factors, and financial market characteristics.
在本文中,我们采用投入产出框架和最近的全球价值链(GVC)结果来构建制造业采用外国金融服务指数(FFSAM),该指数捕捉了外国金融服务在促进国内制造业生产方面的作用。FFSAM指数显示,2007年至2017年期间,亚洲经济体对外国金融服务的采用迅速赶上了西方世界。亚洲经济体倾向于部署更多来自高收入经济体的外国金融服务,而不是低收入经济体,在高技术制造业中,而不是在低技术制造业中。为国内消费和出口而生产的制造业往往会吸引不同群体的金融服务提供商。研究发现,FFSAM指数受全球价值链地位、金融机构因素和金融市场特征的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy
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