Pub Date : 2023-07-18DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500175
Basem Ertimi, T. Sarmidi, M. Cahyadin, Basem Oqab
This paper seeks to expand the concept of a contractual natural resource curse and suggests another channel that may not be addressed as one of the resource curse channels in petrostate countries since there remains little understanding of the Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH), by which economic sanctions bring a new manifestation and shape the prospect of international economic relations. A sample of 21 petrostate economies is investigated over 1995–2018. The empirical results show a symptom of the oil curse from a new transmission channel under the international relations arena. This result supports our argument that the interactive relationship between sanctions and oil dependence affects sanctioned countries’ economic growth. Transmission channels determine whether natural resources are either a curse or a blessing. Our study found evidence supporting the concept of the oil resource curse taking place through economic sanctions. Hence, the presence of such a negative link casts new light on the debate concerning the influence of natural resource/oil resource curse on the international relations–growth nexus. Policy research needs to be conducted in understanding and mitigating the resource curse.
{"title":"The Conditional Curse, a Missing Dimension of the Oil Curse — Economic Sanctions Channel in a Petrostate Economy: A Curse or a Blessing","authors":"Basem Ertimi, T. Sarmidi, M. Cahyadin, Basem Oqab","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500175","url":null,"abstract":"This paper seeks to expand the concept of a contractual natural resource curse and suggests another channel that may not be addressed as one of the resource curse channels in petrostate countries since there remains little understanding of the Resource Curse Hypothesis (RCH), by which economic sanctions bring a new manifestation and shape the prospect of international economic relations. A sample of 21 petrostate economies is investigated over 1995–2018. The empirical results show a symptom of the oil curse from a new transmission channel under the international relations arena. This result supports our argument that the interactive relationship between sanctions and oil dependence affects sanctioned countries’ economic growth. Transmission channels determine whether natural resources are either a curse or a blessing. Our study found evidence supporting the concept of the oil resource curse taking place through economic sanctions. Hence, the presence of such a negative link casts new light on the debate concerning the influence of natural resource/oil resource curse on the international relations–growth nexus. Policy research needs to be conducted in understanding and mitigating the resource curse.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82510680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500151
Y. Kamal
The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.
{"title":"Demand volatility and firm export margins: Evidence from Egypt","authors":"Y. Kamal","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500151","url":null,"abstract":"The study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both the intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms which reduce their export sales — especially over time — to more volatile destinations/products, are more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and are less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings confirm recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close and low trade costs countries. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84295912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-29DOI: 10.1142/s179399332350014x
Sanjeev Kadam, Anshul Agrawal, Aryan Bajaj, R. Agarwal, Rameesha Kalra, J. Shah
Crude oil is an imperative energy source for the global economy. The future value of crude oil is challenging to anticipate due to its nonstationarity in nature. The focus of this research is to appraise the explosive behavior of crude oil during 2007–2022, including the most recent influential crisis COVID-19 pandemic, to forecast its prices. The crude oil price forecasts by the traditional econometric ARIMA model were compared with modern Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Long Short-Term Memory Networks (ALSTM). Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average percent error (MAPE) values have been used to evaluate the accuracy of such approaches. The results showed that the ALSTM model performs better than the traditional econometric ARIMA forecast model while predicting crude oil opening price on the next working day. Crude oil investors can effectively use this as an intraday trading model and more accurately predict the next working day opening price.
{"title":"Predicting Crude Oil Future Price Using Traditional and Artificial Intelligence-Based Model: Comparative Analysis","authors":"Sanjeev Kadam, Anshul Agrawal, Aryan Bajaj, R. Agarwal, Rameesha Kalra, J. Shah","doi":"10.1142/s179399332350014x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s179399332350014x","url":null,"abstract":"Crude oil is an imperative energy source for the global economy. The future value of crude oil is challenging to anticipate due to its nonstationarity in nature. The focus of this research is to appraise the explosive behavior of crude oil during 2007–2022, including the most recent influential crisis COVID-19 pandemic, to forecast its prices. The crude oil price forecasts by the traditional econometric ARIMA model were compared with modern Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Long Short-Term Memory Networks (ALSTM). Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average percent error (MAPE) values have been used to evaluate the accuracy of such approaches. The results showed that the ALSTM model performs better than the traditional econometric ARIMA forecast model while predicting crude oil opening price on the next working day. Crude oil investors can effectively use this as an intraday trading model and more accurately predict the next working day opening price.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"88 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78334499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-28DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500126
A. Goyal, Prashant Parab
In this paper, we examine the working of the expectations channel of monetary policy transmission for India, first by investigating the role of inflation expectations in an aggregate supply-demand (AS-AD) adapted to the Indian economy. Second, formulating an inflation function determining convergence of core inflation to its expected value in a fixed point arising through interactions between central bank (CB) expected inflation and expectations of different agents. Finally, we estimate SVARs with variables derived from the above exercises. We first estimate how expectations shocks affect macroeconomic aggregates. Second, we identify the shocks affecting expectations of households and professional forecasters (PFs). In addition, we estimate shocks influencing core inflation. Results suggest the expectation channel worked through interactions between PF forecasts and CB projections, with causality from CB projections to core and from core to household expectations. Supply shocks had short-run effects but core inflation dominated in the longer run. Expectations converged. The expectations channel of transmission to inflation was more effective through communication than through the policy rate, since the rate had low and sometimes even perverse effects. The relatively low impact of demand variables on inflation supports the hypothesized AS-AD structure.
{"title":"Working of Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in India","authors":"A. Goyal, Prashant Parab","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500126","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine the working of the expectations channel of monetary policy transmission for India, first by investigating the role of inflation expectations in an aggregate supply-demand (AS-AD) adapted to the Indian economy. Second, formulating an inflation function determining convergence of core inflation to its expected value in a fixed point arising through interactions between central bank (CB) expected inflation and expectations of different agents. Finally, we estimate SVARs with variables derived from the above exercises. We first estimate how expectations shocks affect macroeconomic aggregates. Second, we identify the shocks affecting expectations of households and professional forecasters (PFs). In addition, we estimate shocks influencing core inflation. Results suggest the expectation channel worked through interactions between PF forecasts and CB projections, with causality from CB projections to core and from core to household expectations. Supply shocks had short-run effects but core inflation dominated in the longer run. Expectations converged. The expectations channel of transmission to inflation was more effective through communication than through the policy rate, since the rate had low and sometimes even perverse effects. The relatively low impact of demand variables on inflation supports the hypothesized AS-AD structure.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80925492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-22DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500138
E. Uche, N. Nwaeze, Joseph Enyioma Akonye
A critical evaluation of prior studies indicates that the roles of structural and institutional transformations in moderating natural resource-inequality dynamics is understudied. Moreover, very little is known about such dynamics in resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. To cover the literature gaps, this study harnesses annual panel datasets comprising natural resource rent, structural transformation, institutional quality and technology for the top 10 resource-rich SSA countries over 2000–2018 for empirical evaluations. After ascertaining long-run coevolution among the series, the estimates of the panel quantile regression depict that natural resource abundance is the leading cause of income disparities in these countries; hence, it promotes inequality significantly across all quantiles of the distributions. Furthermore, at the 5th quantile, both structural and institutional transformations deaccelerate inequality insignificantly, but at the 10th quantile, institutional reforms engender equitable income distributions. Notably, beyond the 10th and 50th quantiles, institutional and structural reforms significantly promote income disparities. Additionally, at the 10th quantile, technology marginally promotes equitable income distributions, but at the 60th, 70th and 80th quantiles, technology significantly promotes inequality. Implicatively, a blend of structural reforms and technological improvements within the thresholds around 10th and 50th quantiles could ensure equitable prosperities in the region. Among other policy options highlighted herein, pro-equity redistributive policies that ensure no one is left behind are expedient to eliminate income disparities in these countries.
{"title":"Distributional Dynamics Amidst Resource Abundance: The Implications of Structural and Institutional Transformations","authors":"E. Uche, N. Nwaeze, Joseph Enyioma Akonye","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500138","url":null,"abstract":"A critical evaluation of prior studies indicates that the roles of structural and institutional transformations in moderating natural resource-inequality dynamics is understudied. Moreover, very little is known about such dynamics in resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. To cover the literature gaps, this study harnesses annual panel datasets comprising natural resource rent, structural transformation, institutional quality and technology for the top 10 resource-rich SSA countries over 2000–2018 for empirical evaluations. After ascertaining long-run coevolution among the series, the estimates of the panel quantile regression depict that natural resource abundance is the leading cause of income disparities in these countries; hence, it promotes inequality significantly across all quantiles of the distributions. Furthermore, at the 5th quantile, both structural and institutional transformations deaccelerate inequality insignificantly, but at the 10th quantile, institutional reforms engender equitable income distributions. Notably, beyond the 10th and 50th quantiles, institutional and structural reforms significantly promote income disparities. Additionally, at the 10th quantile, technology marginally promotes equitable income distributions, but at the 60th, 70th and 80th quantiles, technology significantly promotes inequality. Implicatively, a blend of structural reforms and technological improvements within the thresholds around 10th and 50th quantiles could ensure equitable prosperities in the region. Among other policy options highlighted herein, pro-equity redistributive policies that ensure no one is left behind are expedient to eliminate income disparities in these countries.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88691475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-13DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500102
Radu Șimandan
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant shift towards electronic commerce (e-commerce), as people have turned to various methods of e-commerce to deal with imposed mobility restrictions. This paper provides a bibliometric analysis of the research conducted in the field of e-commerce, focusing on studies related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to identify the key features, most influential papers, prevalent themes and methodologies, and the relationship between the terms used in the relevant publications. The data for the analysis was obtained from the Scopus database and consisted of 629 English-language research papers, book chapters, and review papers published between August 2020 and December 2022. BibExcel and VOSviewer software tools were utilized to assist with the selection of relevant information, perform the bibliometric analysis, and generate graphical representations of the results. The analysis indicates that China was the most productive geographical region, with the United States and India following closely behind. Sustainability journal from Switzerland was found to be the most productive in the field, followed by Frontiers in Psychology and the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. Bina Nusantara University in Indonesia was identified as the most productive institution, with Bucharest University of Economic Studies in Romania and Zhejiang University in China following closely behind. The most influential paper was found to be by Kim (2020), followed by Dannenberg et al. (2020), and Tran (2021). To address the limitations in the current literature, future research can undertake a comparative study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the field of e-commerce over time, as well as analyze the dominant themes both prior to and post-pandemic. Investigating the correlation between disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the factors that drive e-commerce adoption constitutes a worthy and captivating field for future research.
{"title":"Electronic Commerce Research during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Radu Șimandan","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500102","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant shift towards electronic commerce (e-commerce), as people have turned to various methods of e-commerce to deal with imposed mobility restrictions. This paper provides a bibliometric analysis of the research conducted in the field of e-commerce, focusing on studies related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to identify the key features, most influential papers, prevalent themes and methodologies, and the relationship between the terms used in the relevant publications. The data for the analysis was obtained from the Scopus database and consisted of 629 English-language research papers, book chapters, and review papers published between August 2020 and December 2022. BibExcel and VOSviewer software tools were utilized to assist with the selection of relevant information, perform the bibliometric analysis, and generate graphical representations of the results. The analysis indicates that China was the most productive geographical region, with the United States and India following closely behind. Sustainability journal from Switzerland was found to be the most productive in the field, followed by Frontiers in Psychology and the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. Bina Nusantara University in Indonesia was identified as the most productive institution, with Bucharest University of Economic Studies in Romania and Zhejiang University in China following closely behind. The most influential paper was found to be by Kim (2020), followed by Dannenberg et al. (2020), and Tran (2021). To address the limitations in the current literature, future research can undertake a comparative study of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the field of e-commerce over time, as well as analyze the dominant themes both prior to and post-pandemic. Investigating the correlation between disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the factors that drive e-commerce adoption constitutes a worthy and captivating field for future research.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89454227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-13DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500114
A. M. AlOmari, Trung Minh Ngo
Entrepreneurship plays an essential role in economic development and identifying factors that incentivise entrepreneurial activity is relevant for both academia and policy. This paper investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment inflow (iFDI) and financial development on entrepreneurship in member countries of ASEAN for the period 2006–2020. We use common panel analysis approaches including pooled OLS, fixed, and random effects regressions to inspect the data. To address endogeneity issues, we further employ GMM estimation. Our analysis reveals that iFDI has a significant positive effect on entrepreneurship in ASEAN countries where financial development is high. The direct relationship between entrepreneurship and financial development is not significant and warrants further investigation.
{"title":"The Impact of FDI and Financial Development on Entrepreneurship in ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis","authors":"A. M. AlOmari, Trung Minh Ngo","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500114","url":null,"abstract":"Entrepreneurship plays an essential role in economic development and identifying factors that incentivise entrepreneurial activity is relevant for both academia and policy. This paper investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment inflow (iFDI) and financial development on entrepreneurship in member countries of ASEAN for the period 2006–2020. We use common panel analysis approaches including pooled OLS, fixed, and random effects regressions to inspect the data. To address endogeneity issues, we further employ GMM estimation. Our analysis reveals that iFDI has a significant positive effect on entrepreneurship in ASEAN countries where financial development is high. The direct relationship between entrepreneurship and financial development is not significant and warrants further investigation.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80506471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-31DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500096
Manish Kumar Sharma, Anwesha Aditya
This paper examines the impact of export diversification and ICT on aggregate and skill-level employment for a sample of 45 and 33 countries from 1990 to 2019 and 1995 to 2019 for OECD & G20 country groups. GMM dynamic panel estimation results suggest that more product-wise concentrated exports lead to new employment opportunities overall, but not geographically diversified exports. Internet has substitution effects on overall employment whereas mobile is insignificant. A greater product-wise diversified export structure expands low-skill-intensive jobs, but greater geographical diversification expands high-skill-intensive jobs. Internet use promotes high-skill-intensive jobs but displaces low-skilled workers. Mobile is found to expand job opportunities for low-skilled workers.
{"title":"Changing Trade Pattern, ICT, and Employment: Evidence Across Countries","authors":"Manish Kumar Sharma, Anwesha Aditya","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500096","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of export diversification and ICT on aggregate and skill-level employment for a sample of 45 and 33 countries from 1990 to 2019 and 1995 to 2019 for OECD & G20 country groups. GMM dynamic panel estimation results suggest that more product-wise concentrated exports lead to new employment opportunities overall, but not geographically diversified exports. Internet has substitution effects on overall employment whereas mobile is insignificant. A greater product-wise diversified export structure expands low-skill-intensive jobs, but greater geographical diversification expands high-skill-intensive jobs. Internet use promotes high-skill-intensive jobs but displaces low-skilled workers. Mobile is found to expand job opportunities for low-skilled workers.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135832718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-09DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500084
Anshul Agrawal, Mukta Mani, S. Varshney
Bitcoin is a type of Cryptocurrency that relies on Blockchain technology and its growing popularity is leading to its acceptance as an alternative investment. However, the future value of Bitcoin is difficult to predict due to its significant volatility and speculative behavior. Considering this, the key objective of this research is to assess Bitcoins’ explosive behavior during 2013–2022 including the most volatile COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war period and to forecast its price by comparing the predictive abilities offive different econometric, machine learning and artificial Intelligence methods namely, ARIMA, Decision Tree, Random Forest, SVM, and Artificial Intelligence Long Short-Term Memory Network (AI-LSTM). The precision of such methodologies has been assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average per cent error (MAPE) values. The findings confirmed that the AI-LSTM model performs better than other forecast models in predicting Bitcoins’ opening price on the following working day. Therefore, Bitcoin traders, policymakers, and financial institutions can use the model effectively to better forecast the next day’s opening price.
{"title":"Bitcoin Forecasting Performance Measurement: A Comparative Study of Econometric, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence-Based Models","authors":"Anshul Agrawal, Mukta Mani, S. Varshney","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500084","url":null,"abstract":"Bitcoin is a type of Cryptocurrency that relies on Blockchain technology and its growing popularity is leading to its acceptance as an alternative investment. However, the future value of Bitcoin is difficult to predict due to its significant volatility and speculative behavior. Considering this, the key objective of this research is to assess Bitcoins’ explosive behavior during 2013–2022 including the most volatile COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war period and to forecast its price by comparing the predictive abilities offive different econometric, machine learning and artificial Intelligence methods namely, ARIMA, Decision Tree, Random Forest, SVM, and Artificial Intelligence Long Short-Term Memory Network (AI-LSTM). The precision of such methodologies has been assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average per cent error (MAPE) values. The findings confirmed that the AI-LSTM model performs better than other forecast models in predicting Bitcoins’ opening price on the following working day. Therefore, Bitcoin traders, policymakers, and financial institutions can use the model effectively to better forecast the next day’s opening price.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80152323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-04DOI: 10.1142/s1793993323500072
Indranarain Ramlall
Despite the prevalence of a rich literature on bank profitability, yet, none of it analyzes the simultaneous effects of GFC and COVID-19 on bank profitability. We attempt to fulfil this gap by using a model which factors in digitization, ageing population, endogenous and predetermined variables, let alone control for G-SIBs. Findings show that the impacts of COVID-19 were twice as much deleterious as those hailing from the GFC in the case of NIM and four times as harmful in the case of ROE, with ageing population exerting bearish forces on bank profitability. Mobile usage interacted with COVID-19 crisis dummy and is found to leverage on ROE, underscoring the significance of technology-driven sources of activities during the pandemic. Overall, our paper justifies the significantly larger bailout package launched by the authorities during the pandemic compared to that triggered during the GFC with the critical role of technology being underscored in securing banks’ profits during the pandemic.
{"title":"Digitization, Ageing Population and Bank Profitability: Evidence in Light of Two Global Crises","authors":"Indranarain Ramlall","doi":"10.1142/s1793993323500072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793993323500072","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the prevalence of a rich literature on bank profitability, yet, none of it analyzes the simultaneous effects of GFC and COVID-19 on bank profitability. We attempt to fulfil this gap by using a model which factors in digitization, ageing population, endogenous and predetermined variables, let alone control for G-SIBs. Findings show that the impacts of COVID-19 were twice as much deleterious as those hailing from the GFC in the case of NIM and four times as harmful in the case of ROE, with ageing population exerting bearish forces on bank profitability. Mobile usage interacted with COVID-19 crisis dummy and is found to leverage on ROE, underscoring the significance of technology-driven sources of activities during the pandemic. Overall, our paper justifies the significantly larger bailout package launched by the authorities during the pandemic compared to that triggered during the GFC with the critical role of technology being underscored in securing banks’ profits during the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89117195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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