Considerando las variables de actividad economica y de costo de oportunidad de mantener dinero que inciden en la demanda de dinero (M1), analizamos su efecto en la captacion del sistema bancario mexicano (2006-2018). Por primera vez se introduce a M1 como determinante de la captacion. El analisis emplea un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR, Vector Autoregression ) para evaluar la cointegracion, asi como modelos de correccion de errores. Concluimos que la captacion bancaria no fue determinada por la variable actividad economica (el IGAE), sino por algunas variables de costo de oportunidad; sobresale el papel de M1 como determinante de la captacion. Por ultimo, obtuvimos un comportamiento estable de la captacion. La estabilidad la analizamos con un modelo de cambio de regimen, e identificamos dos regimenes, alta y baja volatilidad; predomina este ultimo. MONEY DEMAND AND BANK DEPOSITS IN MEXICO ABSTRACT Considering that the variables economic activity and opportunity cost of holding money affect money demand (M1), their effect on deposits at the Mexican banking system is analyzed for the period 2006-2018. For the first time ever, M1 is introduced as a determinant of bank deposits. A Vector Autoregressive Model is used to assess cointegration. Error Correction Models were used. We concluded that bank deposits were not determined by the variable economic activity (IGAE), the rate of inflation nor the bank funding rate, but by some opportunity cost variables. The role of M1 stands out as a determinant of bank deposits. Finally, a stable behavior of bank deposits is obtained. Stability is analyzed using a Regime Switching-Model, two regimes are identified, high and low volatility, the latter predominates.
{"title":"DEMANDA DE DINERO Y CAPTACIÓN BANCARIA EN MÉXICO","authors":"Ramón Valencia Romero, Jorge Moya, Humberto Ríos Bolívar","doi":"10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.314.76617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.314.76617","url":null,"abstract":"Considerando las variables de actividad economica y de costo de oportunidad de mantener dinero que inciden en la demanda de dinero (M1), analizamos su efecto en la captacion del sistema bancario mexicano (2006-2018). Por primera vez se introduce a M1 como determinante de la captacion. El analisis emplea un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR, Vector Autoregression ) para evaluar la cointegracion, asi como modelos de correccion de errores. Concluimos que la captacion bancaria no fue determinada por la variable actividad economica (el IGAE), sino por algunas variables de costo de oportunidad; sobresale el papel de M1 como determinante de la captacion. Por ultimo, obtuvimos un comportamiento estable de la captacion. La estabilidad la analizamos con un modelo de cambio de regimen, e identificamos dos regimenes, alta y baja volatilidad; predomina este ultimo. MONEY DEMAND AND BANK DEPOSITS IN MEXICO ABSTRACT Considering that the variables economic activity and opportunity cost of holding money affect money demand (M1), their effect on deposits at the Mexican banking system is analyzed for the period 2006-2018. For the first time ever, M1 is introduced as a determinant of bank deposits. A Vector Autoregressive Model is used to assess cointegration. Error Correction Models were used. We concluded that bank deposits were not determined by the variable economic activity (IGAE), the rate of inflation nor the bank funding rate, but by some opportunity cost variables. The role of M1 stands out as a determinant of bank deposits. Finally, a stable behavior of bank deposits is obtained. Stability is analyzed using a Regime Switching-Model, two regimes are identified, high and low volatility, the latter predominates.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"75-105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43354835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-21DOI: 10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.314.76042
J. Sánchez, A. G. Sienra
This paper aims to analyze the impact of the dynamic systems techniques (dst) on the recent development of neoclassical Economics. Through the use of a classification of research papers and two models, we study how mainstream economists translate concepts into dynamic formats. The main conclusions are: (i) dst have expanded knowledge in Economics by revealing new types of equilibria and tightening interrelationships among sub-disciplines; (ii) despite this undeniable success, some economists criticize how assumptions and concepts are reduced to technical expressions to ease their mathematical adaptation; and (iii) there is no neutral method to build dynamic models.
{"title":"THE COMPLICATED PAIRING BETWEEN DYNAMIC SYSTEMS TECHNIQUES AND ECONOMICS","authors":"J. Sánchez, A. G. Sienra","doi":"10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.314.76042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.314.76042","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to analyze the impact of the dynamic systems techniques (dst) on the recent development of neoclassical Economics. Through the use of a classification of research papers and two models, we study how mainstream economists translate concepts into dynamic formats. The main conclusions are: (i) dst have expanded knowledge in Economics by revealing new types of equilibria and tightening interrelationships among sub-disciplines; (ii) despite this undeniable success, some economists criticize how assumptions and concepts are reduced to technical expressions to ease their mathematical adaptation; and (iii) there is no neutral method to build dynamic models.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42120535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Intervention in the foreign exchange market and capital controls are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. The objective of this paper is to examine their effectiveness for a representative Emerging Market economy. The main findings indicate that neither central bank intervention nor capital controls used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate but have the side effect of augmenting its volatility. Nonetheless, during a period when both policies were used simultaneously, they were effective to impact the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility. ?SON EFECTIVOS LOS CONTROLES DE CAPITAL Y LA INTERVENCION DEL BANCO CENTRAL? RESUMEN La intervencion en el mercado cambiario y los controles de capital son dos instrumentos de politica controversiales que muchos paises han utilizado para influir sobre la tasa de cambio y moderar los flujos de capital. El objetivo de este articulo es evaluar su efectividad para una economia emergente representativa. Los principales hallazgos indican que ni la intervencion cambiaria ni los controles de capital utilizados por separado tuvieron exito en afectar la tasa de cambio, pero si tuvieron un impacto no deseado como fue aumentar su volatilidad. Sin embargo, durante el periodo en el que ambas politicas se usaron simultaneamente, fueron efectivas en impactar la tasa de cambio sin incrementar su volatilidad.
{"title":"ARE CAPITAL CONTROLS AND CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION EFFECTIVE?","authors":"Hernán Rincón-Castro, Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76064","url":null,"abstract":"Intervention in the foreign exchange market and capital controls are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. The objective of this paper is to examine their effectiveness for a representative Emerging Market economy. The main findings indicate that neither central bank intervention nor capital controls used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate but have the side effect of augmenting its volatility. Nonetheless, during a period when both policies were used simultaneously, they were effective to impact the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility. ?SON EFECTIVOS LOS CONTROLES DE CAPITAL Y LA INTERVENCION DEL BANCO CENTRAL? RESUMEN La intervencion en el mercado cambiario y los controles de capital son dos instrumentos de politica controversiales que muchos paises han utilizado para influir sobre la tasa de cambio y moderar los flujos de capital. El objetivo de este articulo es evaluar su efectividad para una economia emergente representativa. Los principales hallazgos indican que ni la intervencion cambiaria ni los controles de capital utilizados por separado tuvieron exito en afectar la tasa de cambio, pero si tuvieron un impacto no deseado como fue aumentar su volatilidad. Sin embargo, durante el periodo en el que ambas politicas se usaron simultaneamente, fueron efectivas en impactar la tasa de cambio sin incrementar su volatilidad.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"31-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47796101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76066
Gabriela Aidar, J. Braga
espanolIn the context of the pull-push debate on the weight that external or internal factors have on the behavior of capital flows, this article aims to empirically assess the extent to which the push factors linked to global liquidity determine the changes in the risk premium of a set of countries of the periphery in the period 1999-2019. We also test for a structural change in the premium risk series in 2003. We find that push factors play a predominant role (compared to pull factors) in explaining country-risk spreads changes in our selected set of peripheral countries and that there was indeed a substantial general reduction in country-risk premia after 2003. The results are in agreement both with the view that cycles in peripheral economies are subordinated to global financial cycles and also that such global conditions substantially improved compared to the 1990s. PRIMA DE RIESGO PAIS EN LA PERIFERIA Y EL CICLO FINANCIERO INTERNACIONAL 1999-2019RESUMENConsiderando el debate pull-push sobre la influencia de los factores externos o internos en el comportamiento de los flujos de capital, el objetivo de este articulo es analizar empiricamente el grado en que los factores externos vinculados a la liquidez global afectan los cambios en la prima de riesgo de un conjunto de paises de la periferia durante el periodo 1999-2019. Tambien examinamos un cambio estructural en la serie de riesgo de primas en 2003. Asi, encontramos que los factores externos desempenan un papel predominante (en comparacion con los factores especificos de cada pais) en la explicacion de los cambios de riesgo pais en los paises perifericos seleccionados y que, efectivamente, existio una reduccion general sustancial en las primas de riesgo pais despues de 2003. Los resultados estan en linea con la vision de que los ciclos en las economias perifericas estan subordinados a los ciclos financieros mundiales y, ademas, que las condiciones externas han mejorado sustancialmente en comparacion con la decada de 1990. EnglishIn the context of the pull-push debate on the weight that external or internal factors have in the behavior of capital flows, this article aims to empirically assess the extent to which the push factors linked to global liquidity determine the changes in the risk premium of a set of countries of the periphery in the period 1999-2019. We also test for a structural change in the premium risk series in 2003. We find that push factors play a predominant role (compared to pull factors) in explaining country-risk spreads changes in our selected set of peripheral countries and that there was indeed a substantial general reduction in country-risk premia after 2003. The results are in agreement both with the view that cycles in peripheral economies are subordinated to global financial cycles and also that such global conditions substantially improved compared to the 1990s. PRIMA DE RIESGO PAIS EN LA PERIFERIA Y EL CICLO FINANCIERO INTERNACIONAL 1999-2019RESUMENConsiderando e
在关于外部或内部因素对资本流动行为的权重的拉-推辩论的背景下，本文旨在实证评估与全球流动性相关的推动因素在多大程度上决定了1999-2019年期间一组外围国家风险溢价的变化。我们还测试了2003年溢价风险系列的结构性变化。我们发现，在我们选定的外围国家中，推动因素在解释国家风险息差变化方面起着主导作用(与拉动因素相比)，2003年之后，国家风险溢价确实普遍大幅下降。研究结果与以下观点一致:外围经济体的周期服从于全球金融周期，而且与上世纪90年代相比，这种全球状况有了显著改善。1999-2019年国际金融会议(CICLO FINANCIERO international):考虑到“拉推式”辩论的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响。2003年，Tambien在la series de riesgo de primas中研究了生物结构。因此，2003年主要的主要研究内容为:环境污染、外部污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染等。与1990年的十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比。在关于外部或内部因素在资本流动行为中所占权重的拉-推辩论的背景下，本文旨在实证评估与全球流动性相关的推动因素在多大程度上决定了1999-2019年期间一系列外围国家风险溢价的变化。我们还测试了2003年溢价风险系列的结构性变化。我们发现，在我们选定的外围国家中，推动因素在解释国家风险息差变化方面起着主导作用(与拉动因素相比)，2003年之后，国家风险溢价确实普遍大幅下降。研究结果与以下观点一致:外围经济体的周期服从于全球金融周期，而且与上世纪90年代相比，这种全球状况有了显著改善。1999-2019年国际金融会议(CICLO FINANCIERO international):考虑到“拉推式”辩论的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响，对资本流动的影响。Tambien在2003年的《第一阶段》(series de primas de riesgo)中对生物结构进行了研究。因此，2003年主要的主要研究内容为:环境污染、外部污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染、环境污染等。与1990年的十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比，其结果是:与1990年十年相比。
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Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76065
Amanda Santos de Oliveira Pontes, A. Lourenço
espanolEste articulo tiene como objetivo evaluar la orientacion general (expansionista o contraccionista) del componente discrecional de la politica fiscal brasilena en el periodo 1995-2017, asi como verificar su posicion respecto al ciclo economico (prociclica o anticiclica). Con este fin, proponemos y aplicamos una nueva metodologia para separar el impulso fiscal discrecional de la parte del resultado fiscal que se obtiene de la activacion de los estabilizadores fiscales automaticos. Concluimos que la politica fiscal: 1) genero una posicion mayormente prociclica (desestabilizadora) de su componente discrecional, lo que la llevo a amplificar en lugar de amortiguar los ciclos economicos; 2) no pudo evitar que la relacion deuda publica/PIB entrase en una trayectoria insostenible al final del periodo. Se hacen algunas sugerencias para mejorar su rendimiento. DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL, 1995-2017: DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis article aims to evaluate the general (expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the discretionary component of Brazilian fiscal policy in the period 1995-2017, as well as to verify its position in relation to the economic cycle (procyclical or anticyclical). To this end, it proposes and applies a new methodology to separate the discretionary fiscal impulse from the part of the fiscal result arising from the operation of automatic fiscal stabilizers. It concludes that fiscal policy: 1) generated a mostly procyclical (destabilizing) position of its discretionary component, leading it to amplify rather than dampen economic cycles; 2) failed to prevent the public debt/GDP ratio from entering the unsustainable path at the end of the period. Suggestions are made to improve its performance. EnglishEste articulo tiene como objetivo evaluar la orientacion general (expansionista o contraccionista) del componente discrecional de la politica fiscal brasilena en el periodo 1995-2017, asi como verificar su posicion respecto al ciclo economico (prociclica o anticiclica). Con este fin, proponemos y aplicamos una nueva metodologia para separar el impulso fiscal discrecional de la parte del resultado fiscal que se obtiene de la activacion de los estabilizadores fiscales automaticos. Concluimos que la politica fiscal: 1) genero una posicion mayormente prociclica (desestabilizadora) de su componente discrecional, lo que la llevo a amplificar en lugar de amortiguar los ciclos economicos; 2) no pudo evitar que la relacion deuda publica/PIB entrase en una trayectoria insostenible al final del periodo. Se hacen algunas sugerencias para mejorar su rendimiento. DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL, 1995-2017: DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis article aims to evaluate the general (expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the discretionary component of Brazilian fiscal policy in the period 1995-2017, as well as to verify its position in relation to the economic cycle (procyclic or anticyclic). To this end, it propos
本文旨在评估1995-2017年巴西财政政策的可自由支配部分的总体方向(扩张主义或收缩主义)，并验证其对经济周期(顺周期或预期)的立场。为此，我们提出并应用了一种新的方法，将可自由支配的财政冲动与激活自动财政稳定器所获得的部分财政结果分开。我们的结论是:1)财政政策在其自由裁量成分中产生了一种主要是顺周期(破坏稳定)的立场，导致其放大而不是抑制经济周期;2)在这一时期结束时，它未能阻止公共债务/ gdp比率进入不可持续的轨道。提出了一些提高性能的建议。财政DISCRETIONARY POLICY IN巴西,1995-2017:DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis条旨在评价秘书长(expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the DISCRETIONARY component of POLICY IN the period 1995-2017财政Brazilian, as well as to verify its定位有关经济周期(procyclical or anticyclical)。为此目的，它提出并应用了一种新的方法，将自由支配的财政冲动与自动财政稳定器操作产生的财政结果部分分开。它的结论是，财政政策:1)产生了一种主要是顺周期的(破坏稳定的)财政政策，导致其放大而不是削弱经济周期;2)未能防止政府债务/国内生产总值比率在这一时期结束时走上不可持续的道路。建议是为了提高它的性能。本文旨在评估1995-2017年巴西财政政策的可自由支配部分的总体方向(扩张主义或收缩主义)，并验证其对经济周期(顺周期或预期)的立场。为此，我们提出并应用了一种新的方法，将可自由支配的财政冲动与激活自动财政稳定器所获得的部分财政结果分开。我们的结论是:1)财政政策在其自由裁量成分中产生了一种主要是顺周期(破坏稳定)的立场，导致其放大而不是抑制经济周期;2)在这一时期结束时，它未能阻止公共债务/ gdp比率进入不可持续的轨道。提出了一些提高性能的建议。财政DISCRETIONARY POLICY IN巴西,1995-2017:DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis条旨在评价秘书长(expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the DISCRETIONARY component of POLICY IN the period 1995-2017财政Brazilian, as well as to verify its定位有关经济周期(procyclic or anticyclic)。为此目的，它提出并应用了一种新的方法，将自由支配的财政冲动与自动财政稳定器操作产生的财政结果部分分开。它的结论是，财政政策:1)产生了一种主要是顺周期的(破坏稳定的)财政政策，导致其放大而不是削弱经济周期;2)未能防止政府债务/国内生产总值比率在这一时期结束时走上不可持续的道路。建议是为了提高它的性能。
{"title":"POLÍTICA FISCAL DISCRECIONAL EN BRASIL, 1995-2017: DESCOMPOSICIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN","authors":"Amanda Santos de Oliveira Pontes, A. Lourenço","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76065","url":null,"abstract":"espanolEste articulo tiene como objetivo evaluar la orientacion general (expansionista o contraccionista) del componente discrecional de la politica fiscal brasilena en el periodo 1995-2017, asi como verificar su posicion respecto al ciclo economico (prociclica o anticiclica). Con este fin, proponemos y aplicamos una nueva metodologia para separar el impulso fiscal discrecional de la parte del resultado fiscal que se obtiene de la activacion de los estabilizadores fiscales automaticos. Concluimos que la politica fiscal: 1) genero una posicion mayormente prociclica (desestabilizadora) de su componente discrecional, lo que la llevo a amplificar en lugar de amortiguar los ciclos economicos; 2) no pudo evitar que la relacion deuda publica/PIB entrase en una trayectoria insostenible al final del periodo. Se hacen algunas sugerencias para mejorar su rendimiento. DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL, 1995-2017: DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis article aims to evaluate the general (expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the discretionary component of Brazilian fiscal policy in the period 1995-2017, as well as to verify its position in relation to the economic cycle (procyclical or anticyclical). To this end, it proposes and applies a new methodology to separate the discretionary fiscal impulse from the part of the fiscal result arising from the operation of automatic fiscal stabilizers. It concludes that fiscal policy: 1) generated a mostly procyclical (destabilizing) position of its discretionary component, leading it to amplify rather than dampen economic cycles; 2) failed to prevent the public debt/GDP ratio from entering the unsustainable path at the end of the period. Suggestions are made to improve its performance. EnglishEste articulo tiene como objetivo evaluar la orientacion general (expansionista o contraccionista) del componente discrecional de la politica fiscal brasilena en el periodo 1995-2017, asi como verificar su posicion respecto al ciclo economico (prociclica o anticiclica). Con este fin, proponemos y aplicamos una nueva metodologia para separar el impulso fiscal discrecional de la parte del resultado fiscal que se obtiene de la activacion de los estabilizadores fiscales automaticos. Concluimos que la politica fiscal: 1) genero una posicion mayormente prociclica (desestabilizadora) de su componente discrecional, lo que la llevo a amplificar en lugar de amortiguar los ciclos economicos; 2) no pudo evitar que la relacion deuda publica/PIB entrase en una trayectoria insostenible al final del periodo. Se hacen algunas sugerencias para mejorar su rendimiento. DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY IN BRAZIL, 1995-2017: DECOMPOSITION AND EVOLUTIONABSTRACTThis article aims to evaluate the general (expansionist or contractionist) orientation of the discretionary component of Brazilian fiscal policy in the period 1995-2017, as well as to verify its position in relation to the economic cycle (procyclic or anticyclic). To this end, it propos","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"51-77"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41748621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76063
Ariel Dvoskin, G. Feldman
In this paper we show that the positive connection between exchange rate undervaluation and structural change postulated by several unorthodox economists in recent times depends on very specific assumptions, which prevent their conclusions from being sufficiently general. To this aim, we examine the interaction among distributive variables under three different productive structures: Price-taking economies that produce tradable industrial goods, price-taking countries that produce a primary good under differential rent and, finally, price-making countries. In view that the interaction among distributive variables is a priori indeterminate, we conclude that devaluation should be very carefully considered before this policy is recommended to induce structural change. DISTRIBUCION DEL INGRESO Y PATRON DE ESPECIALIZACION EN ECONOMIAS ABIERTAS RESUMEN En este trabajo mostramos que la relacion positiva entre devaluacion y cambio estructural postulada por varios economistas no ortodoxos en tiempos recientes depende de supuestos muy especificos que impiden que sus conclusiones sean lo suficientemente generales. A tal fin, examinamos la interaccion entre las variables distributivas en tres estructuras productivas diferentes: economias tomadoras de precios que producen bienes industriales, paises tomadores de precios que producen un bien primario en condiciones de renta diferencial y, finalmente, paises formadores de precios. Dado que la interaccion entre las variables distributivas es a priori indeterminada, concluimos que los efectos de una devaluacion deben ser cuidadosamente explorados antes de que dicha politica sea recomendada como la mas adecuada para inducir el cambio estructural.
{"title":"INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND PATTERN OF SPECIALIZATION IN OPEN ECONOMIES","authors":"Ariel Dvoskin, G. Feldman","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.313.76063","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we show that the positive connection between exchange rate undervaluation and structural change postulated by several unorthodox economists in recent times depends on very specific assumptions, which prevent their conclusions from being sufficiently general. To this aim, we examine the interaction among distributive variables under three different productive structures: Price-taking economies that produce tradable industrial goods, price-taking countries that produce a primary good under differential rent and, finally, price-making countries. In view that the interaction among distributive variables is a priori indeterminate, we conclude that devaluation should be very carefully considered before this policy is recommended to induce structural change. DISTRIBUCION DEL INGRESO Y PATRON DE ESPECIALIZACION EN ECONOMIAS ABIERTAS RESUMEN En este trabajo mostramos que la relacion positiva entre devaluacion y cambio estructural postulada por varios economistas no ortodoxos en tiempos recientes depende de supuestos muy especificos que impiden que sus conclusiones sean lo suficientemente generales. A tal fin, examinamos la interaccion entre las variables distributivas en tres estructuras productivas diferentes: economias tomadoras de precios que producen bienes industriales, paises tomadores de precios que producen un bien primario en condiciones de renta diferencial y, finalmente, paises formadores de precios. Dado que la interaccion entre las variables distributivas es a priori indeterminada, concluimos que los efectos de una devaluacion deben ser cuidadosamente explorados antes de que dicha politica sea recomendada como la mas adecuada para inducir el cambio estructural.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"7-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45585624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-24DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.312.75372
Bernabé López Martín, A. Aguilar, Daniel Sámano Peñaloza
Este documento estima para Mexico el modelo de Sargent, Williams y Zha (2009) en el cual la inflacion se determina a partir de deficits fiscales financiados mediante expansiones monetarias, asi como por las expectativas de inflacion. La estimacion del modelo sugiere que la evolucion historica de los deficits fiscales es clave para explicar la dinamica de la inflacion en Mexico. Hasta antes de la autonomia del Banco de Mexico en abril de 1994, el modelo sugiere que la monetizacion de estos deficits habria determinado la dinamica de la inflacion en Mexico. Posteriormente, se encuentra evidencia que sugiere la presencia de canales indirectos a traves de los cuales los deficits fiscales via ajustes en la prima por riesgo soberano y en el tipo de cambio nominal aun han tenido cierto impacto sobre las expectativas de inflacion. Esto ultimo resalta la importancia de la disciplina fiscal, en adicion a la autonomia del Banco Central, para preservar un entorno de estabilidad de precios. CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING FISCAL POLICY AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN MEXICO ABSTRACT This document estimates the model of Sargent, Williams y Zha (2009) in which inflation is determined by fiscal deficits financed through monetary expansions as well as inflation expectations. The estimation of the model suggests that the historical evolution of fiscal deficits is key to explaining the dynamics of inflation in our country. Before the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico in April 1994, the model suggests that the monetization of these deficits would have determined the dynamics of inflation in Mexico. Subsequently, evidence is found that suggests the presence of indirect channels through which fiscal deficits via adjustments in the sovereign risk premium and in the nominal exchange rate have still had some impact on inflation expectations. The latter highlights the importance of fiscal discipline, in addition to the autonomy of the Central Bank, to preserve an environment of price stability.
{"title":"CONSIDERACIONES SOBRE POLÍTICA FISCAL Y EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLACIÓN EN MÉXICO","authors":"Bernabé López Martín, A. Aguilar, Daniel Sámano Peñaloza","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.312.75372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.312.75372","url":null,"abstract":"Este documento estima para Mexico el modelo de Sargent, Williams y Zha (2009) en el cual la inflacion se determina a partir de deficits fiscales financiados mediante expansiones monetarias, asi como por las expectativas de inflacion. La estimacion del modelo sugiere que la evolucion historica de los deficits fiscales es clave para explicar la dinamica de la inflacion en Mexico. Hasta antes de la autonomia del Banco de Mexico en abril de 1994, el modelo sugiere que la monetizacion de estos deficits habria determinado la dinamica de la inflacion en Mexico. Posteriormente, se encuentra evidencia que sugiere la presencia de canales indirectos a traves de los cuales los deficits fiscales via ajustes en la prima por riesgo soberano y en el tipo de cambio nominal aun han tenido cierto impacto sobre las expectativas de inflacion. Esto ultimo resalta la importancia de la disciplina fiscal, en adicion a la autonomia del Banco Central, para preservar un entorno de estabilidad de precios. CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING FISCAL POLICY AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN MEXICO ABSTRACT This document estimates the model of Sargent, Williams y Zha (2009) in which inflation is determined by fiscal deficits financed through monetary expansions as well as inflation expectations. The estimation of the model suggests that the historical evolution of fiscal deficits is key to explaining the dynamics of inflation in our country. Before the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico in April 1994, the model suggests that the monetization of these deficits would have determined the dynamics of inflation in Mexico. Subsequently, evidence is found that suggests the presence of indirect channels through which fiscal deficits via adjustments in the sovereign risk premium and in the nominal exchange rate have still had some impact on inflation expectations. The latter highlights the importance of fiscal discipline, in addition to the autonomy of the Central Bank, to preserve an environment of price stability.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"63-88"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44476765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-24DOI: 10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75373
F. N. Urdanivia, Nancy Muller Durán
En este articulo analizamos la relacion entre el crecimiento economico, el deficit fiscal y la inflacion en Mexico, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomia del Banco de Mexico respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endogeno al crecimiento economico, entonces el deficit fiscal no es necesariamente la unica causa de la inflacion. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aun sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relacion negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflacion. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento economico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflacion. FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP? ABSTRACT This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de Mexico. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.
{"title":"DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?","authors":"F. N. Urdanivia, Nancy Muller Durán","doi":"10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75373","url":null,"abstract":"En este articulo analizamos la relacion entre el crecimiento economico, el deficit fiscal y la inflacion en Mexico, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomia del Banco de Mexico respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endogeno al crecimiento economico, entonces el deficit fiscal no es necesariamente la unica causa de la inflacion. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aun sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relacion negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflacion. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento economico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflacion. FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP? ABSTRACT This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de Mexico. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"89-112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48089250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-24DOI: 10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75371
E. Loría
Analizamos la politica monetaria que ha instrumentado el Banco de Mexico desde 1994 y mostramos que ha sido estabilizadora en terminos del Nuevo Consenso Keynesiano. Probamos analitica y econometricamente que no es posible asociar los cambios estructurales que se han observado en el producto y en el desempleo ni en el lento crecimiento en los ultimos 30 anos a los grandes cambios de politica monetaria, entre ellos el otorgamiento de la autonomia al Banco de Mexico. Encontramos evidencia empirica para afirmar que estos cambios de politica monetaria han reducido significativamente la volatilidad de las variables macroeconomicas mas importantes. BANCO DE MEXICO’S AUTONOMY AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, 1994-2019 ABSTRACT In this paper the Banco de Mexico’s monetary policy implemented since 1994 is analyzed. It is shown that the effect of such policy, inspired in the New Keynesian Consensus approach, has been stabilizing. Also, it is analytically and econometrically proven that neither the structural changes in both output and unemployment nor the slow growth observed in the last 30 years can be associated to the major changes monetary policy has experienced, including the granting of autonomy to the Banco de Mexico. We found empirical evidence confirming that these changes in monetary policy have significantly reduced the volatility of the most important macroeconomic variables.
{"title":"AUTONOMÍA DEL BANCO DE MÉXICO Y ESTABILIDAD MACROECONÓMICA, 1994-2019","authors":"E. Loría","doi":"10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/FE.01851667P.2020.312.75371","url":null,"abstract":"Analizamos la politica monetaria que ha instrumentado el Banco de Mexico desde 1994 y mostramos que ha sido estabilizadora en terminos del Nuevo Consenso Keynesiano. Probamos analitica y econometricamente que no es posible asociar los cambios estructurales que se han observado en el producto y en el desempleo ni en el lento crecimiento en los ultimos 30 anos a los grandes cambios de politica monetaria, entre ellos el otorgamiento de la autonomia al Banco de Mexico. Encontramos evidencia empirica para afirmar que estos cambios de politica monetaria han reducido significativamente la volatilidad de las variables macroeconomicas mas importantes. BANCO DE MEXICO’S AUTONOMY AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, 1994-2019 ABSTRACT In this paper the Banco de Mexico’s monetary policy implemented since 1994 is analyzed. It is shown that the effect of such policy, inspired in the New Keynesian Consensus approach, has been stabilizing. Also, it is analytically and econometrically proven that neither the structural changes in both output and unemployment nor the slow growth observed in the last 30 years can be associated to the major changes monetary policy has experienced, including the granting of autonomy to the Banco de Mexico. We found empirical evidence confirming that these changes in monetary policy have significantly reduced the volatility of the most important macroeconomic variables.","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"34-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46631788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-12DOI: 10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.311.72441
F. Hernández, Víctor Isidro Luna
In 1,024 pages, seventeen chapters, and divided in three books, plus seventeen appendixes, Anwar Shaikh, one of the leading scholars and a distinguished Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research, presents a path breaking and monumental book which main objective is the unified study of the logic, history, dynamics, and crises of the capitalist system. Throughout this book, the author confronts his own perspective and method of the classical political economy with major schools of economic thought such as neoclassical, monetarist, and different branches of the post-Keynesian school...
{"title":"CAPITALISM: COMPETITION, CONFLICT, CRISES, ANWAR SHAIKH","authors":"F. Hernández, Víctor Isidro Luna","doi":"10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.311.72441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.311.72441","url":null,"abstract":"In 1,024 pages, seventeen chapters, and divided in three books, plus seventeen appendixes, Anwar Shaikh, one of the leading scholars and a distinguished Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research, presents a path breaking and monumental book which main objective is the unified study of the logic, history, dynamics, and crises of the capitalist system. Throughout this book, the author confronts his own perspective and method of the classical political economy with major schools of economic thought such as neoclassical, monetarist, and different branches of the post-Keynesian school...","PeriodicalId":44170,"journal":{"name":"Investigacion Economica","volume":"79 1","pages":"137-143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47845271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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