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Modeling and design of information-analytical production processes based on neuro-fuzzy temporal Petri nets 基于神经模糊时间Petri网的信息分析生产过程建模与设计
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-65-78
A. Bobryakov, V. Borisov, A. Misnik, S. Prakapenka
The article is devoted to the issues of modeling and designing information-analytical processes corresponding to the production and technological processes at the enterprise. In the modern conditions of the functioning of the market, the enterprise faces important tasks of embedding in global supply chains, responding to an increase in the need for personalized products and, most importantly, reducing costs and improving product quality. In addition to solving these problems, the enterprise has to deal with such problems as: overproduction, waiting and wasted time, defects and marriage. Despite the fact that economic efficiency is put at the forefront, in order to ensure the sustainable development of an enterprise, it is necessary the criteria of environmental friendliness, accident-free operation and social efficiency. Enterprises, whose competitive advantages are flexibility and response speed to market needs, require tools for the operational management of production and technological processes. For effective functioning within a complex system, planning and implementation of production and technological processes must be supported by appropriate information-analytical processes that provide the collection and analysis of information, as well as modeling and making control decisions for the production and technological process. Production management is carried out in the form of strategic, tactical and operational planning, which puts forward additional requirements for modeling tools and management decision support. A variety of neuro-fuzzy Petri nets with temporal fuzzy neurons is proposed. An example of building a model of the production process and the corresponding information-analytical processes is considered. The developed specialized software for modeling production and technological processes and the implementation of information- analytical processes, including modules for forming an ontological model of a complex system and processes, obtaining data, a neural network supervisor, building a model of a production- technological process and corresponding information-analytical processes using the mechanism constructors based on neuro-fuzzy temporal Petri nets is considered.
本文研究了与企业生产和技术过程相对应的信息分析过程的建模和设计问题。在现代市场运作的条件下,企业面临着嵌入全球供应链的重要任务,应对个性化产品需求的增加,最重要的是降低成本和提高产品质量。在解决这些问题的同时,企业还要处理生产过剩、等待和浪费时间、缺陷和婚姻等问题。虽然经济效益是最重要的,但为了确保企业的可持续发展,环境友好、无事故运行和社会效率是必要的标准。企业的竞争优势是灵活性和对市场需求的反应速度,企业需要对生产和技术过程进行运营管理的工具。为了在一个复杂的系统中有效运作,生产和技术过程的计划和实施必须得到适当的信息分析过程的支持,这些过程提供信息的收集和分析,以及为生产和技术过程建模和做出控制决策。生产管理以战略、战术和操作计划的形式进行,这对建模工具和管理决策支持提出了额外的要求。提出了多种具有时间模糊神经元的神经模糊Petri网。考虑了一个建立生产过程模型和相应的信息分析过程的例子。考虑了基于神经模糊时间Petri网的机制构造器,开发了生产工艺过程建模和信息分析过程实现的专用软件,包括形成复杂系统和过程的本体模型、获取数据、神经网络监督器、建立生产工艺过程模型和相应的信息分析过程等模块。
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引用次数: 0
Development of the architecture of an intelligent information system oracle programs blockchain management systems 开发了一个智能信息系统架构的oracle程序区块链管理系统
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-93-104
E. Gumerov, T. V. Alekseeva
Oracle programs are a key link in the interaction of blockchain systems with the outside world. They must ensure the authenticity and security of data transmitted over a computer network to blockchain smart contracts. It is possible to increase security by creating a blockchain network for oracle programs, and a consensus of independent assessments of the authenticity of data in oracle programs will ensure the security of data transmitted to the main blockchain. Blockchain control systems in real time take several milliseconds to verify the authenticity of data, to data mining and to develop a control effect on the actuators. The consensus mechanism, which requires much more time, is not acceptable in these management systems. The purpose of this work is to develop the architecture of an intelligent information system of oracle programs for a real-time blockchain management system. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were solved: analysis of the state of the problem of ensuring the reliability and completeness of data, research of the capabilities of intelligent smart contracts, research of the intellectual capabilities of peripheral computing, development of the architecture of an intelligent information system of oracle programs. The scientific novelty of the work consists in the fact that a way has been found for high-speed transmission of the reliability of data transmitted by the oracle program system to the smart contracts of the blockchain management system in real time. The practical significance of the work is to solve the problem of providing reliable data to the blockchain management system in real time.
Oracle程序是区块链系统与外界交互的关键环节。他们必须确保通过计算机网络传输到区块链智能合约的数据的真实性和安全性。通过为oracle程序创建区块链网络来提高安全性是可能的,并且对oracle程序中数据真实性的独立评估的共识将确保传输到主区块链的数据的安全性。区块链控制系统实时需要几毫秒的时间来验证数据的真实性,对数据进行挖掘,并对执行器产生控制效果。需要更多时间的协商一致机制在这些管理制度中是不可接受的。本工作的目的是为实时区块链管理系统开发oracle程序的智能信息系统架构。为实现这一目标,主要解决了数据可靠性和完整性问题的现状分析、智能智能合约能力的研究、外围计算智能能力的研究、oracle程序智能信息系统体系结构的开发。这项工作的科学新颖性在于,找到了一种将oracle程序系统传输的数据的可靠性实时高速传输到区块链管理系统的智能合约的方法。工作的现实意义在于解决实时向区块链管理系统提供可靠数据的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the process of self-starting of electric motors for auxiliary needs of a nuclear power plant to accelerate it and minimize various disturbances 为满足核电厂的辅助需要,建立了电机自启动过程的模型,以加速电机自启动并使各种干扰最小化
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-45-64
V. Rozhkov, K. Krutikov, V. V. Fedotov, S. G. Butrimov
The article proposes a solution to the problem of accelerating the processes of self-starting of asynchronous electric motors of pumping equipment with the help of simulation computer modeling tools to reduce the negative impact on the power supply circuit of the auxiliary needs of a nuclear power plant. The features of the run-down transient processes and the interaction of machines of various capacities in the autonomous circuit that occurs after they are turned off, the subsequent transition to a backup power source, and the emerging effects during self-start are considered. It is shown that the most severe mode of such a transition occurs as a result of the operation of automatic switching on of the reserve and disconnection of working power sources by technological protections or actions of operational personnel at the operational level of operating voltage and nominal or close to it load sections. The analysis of emerging modes is carried out using models developed in the MatLab computer mathematics system with a built-in electrical application. The features of the processes of run-down and subsequent self-starting at various favorable and unfavorable moments of time and the magnitude of the mismatch between the voltages of the network and the resulting autonomous circuit are demonstrated. The models make it possible to obtain a reliable mathematical description of the electromagnetic and mechanical processes of motors in a complex electromechanical system of several motors, to measure the instantaneous voltage differences between the network and the run-down circuit, and to predict the optimal time to turn on the backup power source. The results of the studies carried out on the models are the development of recommendations on the technology for monitoring voltage and circuit mismatches for the same phases, the assessment of the root-mean-square deviation of these mismatches and the effective search for the moment of re-enabling the backup source to improve the technological modes of nuclear power plants.
本文提出了一种利用仿真计算机建模工具加速泵送设备异步电动机自启动过程的解决方案,以减少核电站辅助用电对供电回路的负面影响。考虑了自启动过程中出现的故障暂态过程的特点和自动电路中各种容量的机器在关机后的相互作用,随后向备用电源的过渡以及自启动过程中出现的影响。结果表明,由于技术保护或操作人员在工作电压和标称或接近其负载段的工作电平上的动作,自动接通备用电源和断开工作电源,会发生这种过渡的最严重模式。利用内置电气应用的MatLab计算机数学系统中开发的模型对新模态进行分析。在各种有利和不利的时刻,演示了运行和随后的自启动过程的特征以及网络电压与由此产生的自治电路之间的不匹配程度。该模型可以对由多台电机组成的复杂机电系统中电机的电磁和机械过程进行可靠的数学描述,可以测量网络和运行电路之间的瞬时电压差,并可以预测备用电源的最佳打开时间。对这些模型进行研究的结果是提出了对同相电压和电路失配监测技术的建议,评估了失配的均方根偏差,并有效地寻找了重新启用备用电源的时刻,以改进核电站的技术模式。
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引用次数: 0
Computer program for modeling of technical state indicators of electromechanical systems 机电系统技术状态指示器建模的计算机程序
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-105-119
S. Kurilin, A. M. Sokolov, Nikolai N. Prokimnov
The article is aimed at solving the problem of scientific justification of criteria and methods for assessing the technical state of electromechanical systems based on the topological diagnostic method. Mathematical model and computer program for simulation of technical state indices of asynchronous electric motors (AEM) are presented. Functions and Green matrices, as well as deviation matrices, are considered as such indicators. The basis of the program is the mathematical model of the AEM with a non-accelerated rotor and non-homogeneous windings. AEM is supplied from pulse voltage source. The action is carried out in different directions of the vector space of the motor in order to determine its characteristics and degree of homogeneity. Based on the reactions of the object, the program calculates and analyzes technical indicators for intact and damaged states of the AEM. A computer program for mathematical modeling of the technical state indicators of the AEM was carried out using the Maple package of symbolic and numerical calculations, which provides extensive opportunities for mathematical studies of various levels. A description of a software implementation of the proposed mathematical model is given. An example of using a program to model the performance of a serial motor with specified technical characteristics is given. The article presents the results of modeling the object indicators corresponding to the object different operational states. A reference state, a damaged state characterized by a change in the properties of the vector space during long-term operation, as well as a limit state, which corresponds to a break in one of the phases of the rotor winding, were defined as these states. Conclusions on each of the given electric motor states are given.
本文旨在解决基于拓扑诊断方法的机电系统技术状态评估标准和方法的科学论证问题。提出了异步电动机技术状态指标仿真的数学模型和计算机程序。函数和格林矩阵,以及偏差矩阵,被认为是这样的指标。该程序的基础是具有非加速转子和非均匀绕组的AEM的数学模型。AEM由脉冲电压源供电。在电机矢量空间的不同方向上进行动作,以确定其特性和均匀度。该程序根据物体的反应,计算并分析了AEM完好状态和损坏状态的技术指标。利用Maple软件包进行了AEM技术状态指标的数学建模,为不同层次的数学研究提供了广泛的机会。给出了该数学模型的软件实现描述。给出了用程序对具有特定技术特性的串联电机进行性能建模的实例。本文给出了对象不同运行状态对应的对象指标的建模结果。参考状态,即在长期运行过程中以矢量空间性质变化为特征的损坏状态,以及极限状态,即对应于转子绕组某一相的断开,被定义为这些状态。给出了给定电动机各状态的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Metagraphs for ontological engineering of complex systems 复杂系统本体工程的元图
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-120-132
A. Misnik
The article deals with the issues of ontological engineering of complex systems. Ontological engineering includes the processes of designing and building ontologies, technologically combining object-oriented and structural analysis. Ontological engineering aims to ensure the adoption of high-quality management decisions by increasing the level of integration of the necessary information, improving search capabilities in databases and knowledge bases, providing the possibility of joint processing of knowledge based on a single semantic description of the knowledge space. This process is carried out within the framework of the proposed approach to managing complex systems. The ontology obtained as a result of engineering is subject to the requirements of convenience and flexibility, which is necessary for modeling system processes and ensuring the functioning of information and analytical processes in a complex system. The application of ordinary graphs, hypergraphs and metagraphs in ontological engineering is described. The use of metagraphs in the construction of hierarchical ontologies is substantiated. Metagraphs are considered as the basis for building an applied ontology of a complex system. A modification of the metagraph is proposed, which makes it possible to include events and data processing methods in the ontology. Such a modification integrates the process component into the ontological model of the system as an integral part of it, which makes it possible to flexibly and with less time to form process models based on the metagraph subgraphs of the general ontological model. An approach and an example of the implementation of the software-instrumental environment of ontological engineering and further construction of models of processes of a complex system are described. The technology used to implement the ontology in the PostgreSQL database management system and the database structure for storing the ontology are described
本文讨论了复杂系统的本体工程问题。本体工程包括设计和构建本体的过程,在技术上结合了面向对象和结构分析。本体工程旨在通过提高必要信息的集成水平,提高数据库和知识库中的搜索能力,提供基于知识空间的单一语义描述的知识联合处理的可能性,确保采用高质量的管理决策。这个过程是在管理复杂系统的拟议方法的框架内进行的。由于工程而获得的本体具有方便性和灵活性的要求,这是对系统过程建模和保证复杂系统中信息和分析过程的功能所必需的。介绍了普通图、超图和元图在本体工程中的应用。元图在构建层次本体中的应用得到了证实。元图被认为是构建复杂系统应用本体的基础。提出了对元图的修改,使得在本体中包含事件和数据处理方法成为可能。这种修改将过程组件作为系统的一个组成部分集成到系统的本体论模型中,从而可以灵活地、以更少的时间形成基于一般本体论模型的元图子图的过程模型。本文描述了本体工程软件工具环境的实现方法和实例,以及复杂系统过程模型的进一步构建。介绍了在PostgreSQL数据库管理系统中实现本体的技术和存储本体的数据库结构
{"title":"Metagraphs for ontological engineering of complex systems","authors":"A. Misnik","doi":"10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-120-132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-120-132","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the issues of ontological engineering of complex systems. Ontological engineering includes the processes of designing and building ontologies, technologically combining object-oriented and structural analysis. Ontological engineering aims to ensure the adoption of high-quality management decisions by increasing the level of integration of the necessary information, improving search capabilities in databases and knowledge bases, providing the possibility of joint processing of knowledge based on a single semantic description of the knowledge space. This process is carried out within the framework of the proposed approach to managing complex systems. The ontology obtained as a result of engineering is subject to the requirements of convenience and flexibility, which is necessary for modeling system processes and ensuring the functioning of information and analytical processes in a complex system. The application of ordinary graphs, hypergraphs and metagraphs in ontological engineering is described. The use of metagraphs in the construction of hierarchical ontologies is substantiated. Metagraphs are considered as the basis for building an applied ontology of a complex system. A modification of the metagraph is proposed, which makes it possible to include events and data processing methods in the ontology. Such a modification integrates the process component into the ontological model of the system as an integral part of it, which makes it possible to flexibly and with less time to form process models based on the metagraph subgraphs of the general ontological model. An approach and an example of the implementation of the software-instrumental environment of ontological engineering and further construction of models of processes of a complex system are described. The technology used to implement the ontology in the PostgreSQL database management system and the database structure for storing the ontology are described","PeriodicalId":44195,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Mathematics & Informatics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2022-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78936284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Neural network model to support decision-making on managing cooperative relations in innovative ecosystems 支持创新生态系统合作关系管理决策的神经网络模型
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-79-92
E. Kirillova, A. Lazarev, Oleg P. Kultygin
Currently, the specifics of external conditions and peculiarities of innovation activity main subjects development determine not only the need for close, long-term scientific and technical cooperation with the state for the sustainable development of territories, but also the need to develop and substantiate proposals for managing the development of innovation processes in such a system as a whole. The article proposes a model for the representation of scientific and industrial interaction in the implementation of regional innovation processes in the form of a three-dimensional "slice" of the triple helix as a resource VRIO-profile of cooperative formation, which allows to clearly demonstrate the system of relations, identify in which direction the problem area is, influencing which it will be possible to return the system to an equilibrium state of sustainable development in a strategic perspective. The analysis of modern scientific works shows the relevance, necessity and effectiveness of using methods based on neural networks to predict changes in the state of complex socio-economic systems, such as regional innovation systems. Existing approaches, as a rule, demonstrate a narrow focus and belonging to a separate enterprise or organization, and therefore do not meet all the requirements from both the implementation of the innovation process itself and the modification of the external environment. In this connection, the authors proposed an information and analytical solution for using the described model to support decision-making on the management of cooperative formations. The developed program is based on predicting the future state (position in a three-dimensional coordinate system) of the system using deep neural networks, namely recurrent. The described practical approbation of the model can in the future serve as a basis for decision-making on the choice of forms and directions of interaction of cooperative formations in the strategic perspective.
目前,外部条件的特殊性和创新活动主体发展的特殊性,不仅决定了需要与国家进行密切、长期的科技合作,以实现领土的可持续发展,而且还需要在整个系统中制定和充实管理创新过程发展的建议。本文提出了一种以三螺旋的三维“切片”形式作为合作形成的资源VRIO-profile的形式来表示实施区域创新过程中的科学和产业互动的模型,该模型可以清楚地展示关系系统,确定问题区域的方向,从战略的角度来看,这将有可能使系统恢复到可持续发展的平衡状态。对现代科学工作的分析表明,使用基于神经网络的方法来预测复杂社会经济系统(如区域创新系统)状态变化的相关性、必要性和有效性。一般来说,现有的方法所关注的焦点较窄,属于单独的企业或组织,因此,无论是从创新过程本身的实施还是从外部环境的改变来看,都不能满足所有的要求。在此基础上,提出了利用所描述模型支持合作编队管理决策的信息分析解决方案。开发的程序是基于使用深度神经网络预测系统的未来状态(在三维坐标系中的位置),即循环。所描述的对模型的实际认可可以作为未来战略视角下合作编队互动形式和方向选择的决策依据。
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引用次数: 2
Instrumental support of technologies for organizing group training for the development of soft skills in data science and analytics 为组织数据科学和分析软技能发展的团体培训提供工具技术支持
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-2-31-44
Tatyana V. Gaibova, P. Sakhnyuk
The article deals with the problem of organizing training for data scientists and data analytics specialists using information technologies. The authors analyzed the current sets of competencies of data science and analytics, identified the problems of organizing their development, considered modern trends in the instrumental support of the learning process. Particular attention is paid to the peculiarities of the development of soft skills in data science and analytics, which should be taken into account in systems and platforms for learning support when building models for the formation of personalized content and learning paths within the course. The necessity of creating a multi-agent software application to support the pedagogical design of the course is substantiated, which allows to adapt the capabilities of modern software systems and learning platforms to increase the efficiency of group interaction and the formation of soft skills necessary in the implementation of data analysis projects. The results of the conceptual design of a multi-agent application integrated with modern learning platforms are presented: a UML diagram of use cases is proposed that provides support for the personalization of training not only at the individual, but also at the command level, the base classes of agents are highlighted and an ontological model is developed to support the formation of soft skills in data science and analytics, directions of further research are determined. The results obtained will be useful to support the formation of a full set of competencies for data science and analytics, as well as to increase the efficiency of group work and support the personalization of content in a hybrid or online learning format, both in the higher education system and in corporate divisions.
本文讨论了如何利用信息技术为数据科学家和数据分析专家组织培训。作者分析了当前数据科学和分析的能力集,确定了组织其发展的问题,考虑了学习过程的工具支持的现代趋势。特别关注数据科学和分析中软技能发展的特殊性,在构建课程中个性化内容和学习路径形成的模型时,应该考虑到学习支持的系统和平台。创建一个多智能体软件应用程序来支持课程教学设计的必要性得到了证实,它允许适应现代软件系统和学习平台的能力,以提高小组互动的效率,并形成实施数据分析项目所需的软技能。提出了与现代学习平台集成的多智能体应用概念设计的结果:提出了用例UML图,为个体和命令级的个性化训练提供支持;强调了智能体的基类;建立了支持数据科学和分析软技能形成的本体模型;确定了进一步研究的方向。所获得的结果将有助于支持数据科学和分析的全套能力的形成,以及提高小组工作的效率,并支持高等教育系统和企业部门中混合或在线学习格式的个性化内容。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of mathematical models of the dynamics of electrically charged gas suspensions for various concentrations of the dispersed component 不同浓度分散组分的带电气体悬浮液动力学数学模型的比较
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-1-39-54
Dmetry A. Tukmakovkov
This work is devoted to mathematical modeling of the dynamics of inhomogeneous electrically charged media. A dusty environment - solid particles suspended in a gas – was considered as an inhomogeneous medium. The mathematical model implemented a continuous approach to modeling the dynamics of inhomogeneous media. The complete hydrodynamic system of equations was solved for each component. The system of equations for the dynamics of each component included the equations of mass continuity, momentum components, and the energy conservation equation for the mixture component. Intercomponent interaction took into account momentum exchange and intercomponent heat transfer. The carrier medium was described as a viscous compressible heat-conducting gas. The flow was described as a flow with a two- dimensional geometry. The equations of the mathematical model were supplemented with initial and boundary conditions. The mathematical model took into account the wall viscosity in the channel. The system of equations of the mathematical model was integrated by McCormack's explicit finite-difference method. To obtain a monotonic grid function, a nonlinear scheme for correcting the numerical solution was used. The mathematical model was supplemented by the Poisson equation describing the electric field formed by charged dispersed particles. Poisson's equation was integrated by finite-difference methods on a gas-dynamic grid. Such a choice of the computational grid was necessary to calculate the concentration of particles required both for solving the electric field equation and for calculating the physical fields of the dynamics of inhomogeneous media. The reciprocal motion of a gas suspension caused by the movement of dispersed particles under the action of the Coulomb force was numerically investigated. The values of the surface and mass densities are determined, at which the models of the surface and mass densities of charges in the simulation of such a process are the same. It is revealed that the surface and mass models of charges are identical with respect to the volumetric content.
这项工作致力于非均匀带电介质动力学的数学建模。尘埃环境——悬浮在气体中的固体颗粒——被认为是一种非均匀介质。该数学模型实现了对非均匀介质动力学建模的连续方法。求解了各分量的完整水动力方程组。各组分的动力学方程系统包括质量连续性方程、动量分量方程和混合组分的能量守恒方程。组分间相互作用考虑了动量交换和组分间热传递。载体介质被描述为一种粘性可压缩的导热气体。该流被描述为具有二维几何形状的流。在数学模型方程中补充了初始条件和边界条件。数学模型考虑了管道壁面粘度。用McCormack的显式有限差分法对数学模型的方程组进行积分。为了得到单调网格函数,采用非线性格式对数值解进行校正。数学模型补充了描述带电分散粒子形成的电场的泊松方程。用有限差分法在气动力网格上对泊松方程进行积分。这种计算网格的选择对于计算求解电场方程和计算非均匀介质动力学的物理场所需的粒子浓度是必要的。用数值方法研究了在库仑力作用下由分散粒子运动引起的气体悬浮液的互反运动。确定了表面密度和质量密度的值,在此值下,模拟这一过程中电荷的表面密度和质量密度的模型是相同的。结果表明,电荷的表面模型和质量模型在体积含量方面是相同的。
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引用次数: 0
Synergy of econometric approach and use of neural networks to determine factors of provision of transport and logistics infrastructure in regions of Russia 计量经济学方法的协同作用和神经网络的使用,以确定俄罗斯地区运输和物流基础设施的提供因素
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-01-30 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-1-5-18
A. E. Zubanova, A. Morozov, A. E. Trubin, A. N. Aleksahin, S. Novikov
The article justifies actuality of application of neural network methods for identification of significant predictors of the transport and logistics infrastructure of regions of the Russian Federation. The condition of the logistics industry of the Russian Federation in comparison with foreign countries has been analyzed. It was concluded that it is necessary to increase the accuracy of estimation of indicators of transport and logistics infrastructure of regions in order to identify their impact on the development of logistics. The problem of the traditional methodology of building a model of transport and logistics infrastructure of regions based on the application of mathematical and econometric analysis lies in the inability of the latter to find and accurately describe the non-obvious dependencies in the data. The expediency of sequential coupling of econometric and neural network research tools has been determined. The two-step procedure of identification of factors influencing the logistics development of the Russian Federation has been tested. As a result, it was possible to select the most significant socio-economic (average per capita income of the population, retail trade turnover, imports of the subjects of the Russian Federation) and infrastructure factors (the share of paved roads, the shipment of goods by public rail, the departure of passengers by public rail, the density of public railway) logistics infrastructure on the basis of an econometric approach. In the second step of the study, a neural network model of the remaining factors was developed based on the development of classification trees and a neural network, acting as a kind of computational filter, which allowed solving the problem of attribution of macroeconomic data and achieving a high level of significance of forecasts. The proposed approach of sequential coupling of econometric methods and neural network modelling has universality and practical importance, therefore it is applicable to the study of a wide range of macroeconomic processes.
本文证明了应用神经网络方法识别俄罗斯联邦各地区运输和物流基础设施的重要预测因素的现状。通过与国外物流业的比较,分析了俄罗斯联邦物流业的发展状况。研究认为,有必要提高区域运输和物流基础设施指标估算的准确性,以确定其对物流发展的影响。传统的基于数学和计量分析构建区域交通物流基础设施模型的方法的问题在于后者无法发现和准确描述数据中不明显的依赖关系。计量经济学和神经网络研究工具的顺序耦合的便利性已经确定。对确定影响俄罗斯联邦物流发展的因素的两步程序进行了测试。因此,可以根据计量经济学方法选择最重要的社会经济(人口平均人均收入、零售贸易额、俄罗斯联邦主体的进口)和基础设施因素(铺设道路的份额、公共铁路货物的运输、公共铁路乘客的出发、公共铁路的密度)物流基础设施。研究的第二步,在分类树和神经网络发展的基础上,建立了剩余因素的神经网络模型,作为一种计算过滤器,解决了宏观经济数据的归因问题,实现了预测的高水平显著性。所提出的计量经济学方法与神经网络建模的顺序耦合方法具有通用性和实际意义,因此适用于广泛的宏观经济过程的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Fuzzy relational cognitive temporal models for analyzing and state prediction of complex technical systems 复杂技术系统分析与状态预测的模糊关系认知时间模型
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-01-30 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-1-27-38
V. Borisov, S. Kurilin, V. Luferov
The effectiveness of fuzzy cognitive modeling methods for analyzing and predicting the state of complex technical systems (STS) is justified by the following reasons: significant interdependence, non-linear nature and incompleteness of information about the mutual influence of the analyzed parameters of the CTS; a variety of effects of internal and external factors on the CTS; complexity and cost of conducting experimental studies during the operation of these systems. The main limitations of fuzzy cognitive models for modeling STS dynamics are: the complexity of taking into account the mutual influence of parameters with their different time lags relative to each other; the need for their constant operational adjustment and training of component models for all parameters during the operation of the CTS. In this paper, Fuzzy Relational Cognitive Temporal Models (FRCTM) are developed. These models combine the advantages of various types of fuzzy cognitive models, and at the same time neutralize the main limitations of the analysis and prediction of the state of the CTS, which are inherent in the well- known fuzzy cognitive models. The paper also proposes models of system dynamics that take into account the specifics of the FRCTM. We have also developed an approach and implemented a method for calculating fuzzy dependencies in vector-matrix form for dynamic modeling of the CTS. The proposed method makes it possible to solve the problems of increasing the uncertainty of the results and the output of fuzzy values of the FRCTM concepts beyond the ranges of the base sets due to the execution of mass iterative computations. An example of modeling heterogeneous electromechanical systems based on FRCTM is given. The results obtained are the basis for solving a whole range of tasks of analysis, predictive evaluation, modeling of different scenarios of the functioning and development of heterogeneous electromechanical systems for various system factors, operating modes and external conditions.
模糊认知建模方法在分析和预测复杂技术系统状态方面的有效性主要体现在以下几个方面:复杂技术系统的分析参数之间存在显著的相互依赖性、非线性性质和相互影响信息的不完全性;内外部因素对CTS的各种影响;在这些系统运行期间进行实验研究的复杂性和成本。模糊认知模型用于STS动力学建模的主要局限性是:考虑参数之间相互影响的复杂性,且参数之间的相对滞后时间不同;在CTS运行过程中,需要对所有参数的组件模型进行不断的操作调整和训练。本文建立了模糊关系认知时间模型(FRCTM)。这些模型综合了各类模糊认知模型的优点,同时消除了传统模糊认知模型在分析和预测CTS状态时所固有的主要局限性。本文还提出了考虑到FRCTM特性的系统动力学模型。我们还开发并实现了一种计算矢量矩阵形式的模糊依赖关系的方法,用于CTS的动态建模。该方法可以解决由于执行大量迭代计算而导致结果的不确定性增加以及模糊值输出超出基集范围的问题。给出了基于FRCTM的异构机电系统建模实例。所获得的结果是解决各种系统因素、运行模式和外部条件下异构机电系统功能和发展的不同场景的分析、预测评估、建模等一系列任务的基础。
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引用次数: 6
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Journal of Applied Mathematics & Informatics
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