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Using econometric models to forecast fixed asset investments 运用计量经济模型预测固定资产投资
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-111-128
V. Osipov, A. Tsypin, O. V. Ledneva
One of the key factors in the country’s GDP growth is reproducible capital, which lays the foundation for the production of products, works and services. Accordingly, the study of the state, structure and dynamics of the dominant component, fixed assets, is one of the priority tasks of statistics and econometrics. This implies the purpose of the study, which is to assess the predictive capabilities of econometric models. To achieve this goal, a pool of mathematical-statistical and econometric methods was used, in particular tabular and graphic, descriptive statistics, correlation-regression, adaptive modeling. The main results include: analysis of the structure of investments did not find new or hidden patterns, so investments are directed to the modernization or renewal of capital-intensive areas – these are buildings, structures and land (about 40% of the total investment), the main industries are industry and transport; visual analysis of the dynamics of the temporary series of investments in fixed assets showed the presence of a long-term, seasonal and situational component; the construction of 6 econometric models reflecting the complex dynamics of the macro indicator in question made it possible to distinguish two adaptive models belonging to the group; thus, the best forecast opportunities for complex dynamics of investments in Russian fixed assets are observed in the three-parameter exponential smoothing model and SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0) [4]. The results obtained in the course of the study will be useful for scientists involved in modeling and predicting complex-structured time series
该国GDP增长的关键因素之一是可再生资本,它为产品、工作和服务的生产奠定了基础。因此,对占主导地位的固定资产的状态、结构和动态的研究是统计学和计量经济学的优先任务之一。这就暗示了本研究的目的,即评估计量经济模型的预测能力。为了实现这一目标,使用了一系列数理统计和计量经济学方法,特别是表格和图表、描述性统计、相关回归和自适应建模。主要结果包括:投资结构分析没有发现新的或隐藏的模式,因此投资主要指向现代化或更新的资本密集型领域——这些是建筑、构筑物和土地(约占总投资的40%),主要产业是工业和交通运输;对固定资产的临时系列投资动态的目视分析表明,存在着长期、季节性和情景因素;通过构建反映宏观指标复杂动态的6个计量模型,可以区分属于同一组的两种自适应模型;因此,在三参数指数平滑模型和SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)[4]中可以观察到对俄罗斯固定资产投资复杂动态的最佳预测机会。在研究过程中获得的结果将对参与复杂结构时间序列建模和预测的科学家有用
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic simulation modeling of the excitation system of synchronous generators of stationary diesel generator sets for emergency power supply of a nuclear power plant 核电厂应急供电固定式柴油发电机组同步发电机励磁系统的动态仿真建模
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-82-95
V. Rozhkov, K. Krutikov, V. V. Fedotov, S. G. Butrimov
In the article, using MatLab dynamic simulation modeling, a study was made of the excitation systems of powerful synchronous generators of stationary diesel generator sets, which are the main sources of emergency power supply for nuclear power plants. The optimal structural complexity mathematical model of a synchronous machine in relative units and orthogonal synchronous coordinate system is used. A comprehensive simulation of diesel generator sets was carried out with the reproduction of both the dynamics of the automatic control system for excitation of a synchronous generator and the diesel engine control system. The simulation takes into account the features of starting a diesel generator to accelerate a synchronous machine, its initial excitation from a battery. Particular emphasis is placed on the study of self-excitation modes through a transformer connected to the stator circuit of the generator and a thyristor rectifier with an excitation winding as a load, as well as parallel operation with the power system. As a result, the processes of starting a diesel generator set in idle mode, effective self-excitation, autonomous operation of the generator at idle, and applying a load to the generator up to the values of permissible overload were simulated. The work of all channels of the control system is shown, including the signals of the regulators of the automatic control system and mechanical variables that are inaccessible in practice. The adequacy of the developed model is proved by comparison with a real physical experiment when testing a diesel generator at a nuclear power plant. The possibility of using the model developed in MatLab as a virtual test site for testing a diesel generator set and a computer simulator for specialized engineering personnel of a nuclear power plant is demonstrated.
本文利用MatLab动态仿真建模,对作为核电站应急电源主要来源的固定式柴油发电机组大功率同步发电机励磁系统进行了研究。采用相对单位和正交同步坐标系下的同步电机最优结构复杂度数学模型。对柴油发电机组进行了综合仿真,再现了同步发电机励磁自动控制系统和柴油机控制系统的动力学特性。该仿真考虑了启动柴油发电机加速同步电机的特点,其初始励磁来自于蓄电池。特别强调的是通过连接到发电机定子电路的变压器和励磁绕组作为负载的晶闸管整流器,以及与电力系统并联运行的自激模式的研究。模拟了柴油发电机组怠速起动、有效自激、怠速自主运行、发电机负荷达到允许过载等过程。显示了控制系统的所有通道的工作,包括自动控制系统的调节器的信号和在实践中无法接近的机械变量。通过与实际物理实验的比较,证明了所建模型的充分性。论证了利用MatLab开发的模型作为虚拟试验场对柴油发电机组进行测试和为核电站专业工程人员提供计算机模拟器的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Model of intelligent planning of robot behavior in a team of robots 机器人团队中机器人行为的智能规划模型
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-65-81
Gennady V. Ross, V. Konyavskiy, V. V. Medvedev
The article deals with an urgent problem related to organization of control of a team of intelligent mobile robots and their interaction with each other for the most effective achievement of the goal. The research is aimed at development of interrelated models of intelligent planning of robot behavior, which is based on a market approach resting on a new risk equilibrium model. The substantial and formal formulations of the task of planning of autonomous mobile robots activities are proposed. The author’s model and a set of new simulation models for calculation of the overstatement, understatement costs, as well as their risks are developed. Various calculation algorithms are proposed for various variants of robot interaction: control under conditions of a restricted limit of the most scarce resource (for example, battery energy); interaction between robots using information products (messages); robot control from the center; purchase and sale of the information product; making a decision on subordination and support of communication between robots, etc. Examples of description of robot behavior options (speed of movement, equipment with photos, videos, sampling tools, energy limit), classification of events (fire, traffic accident, violation of law and order, emergency situations, suspicious object) are offered. Examples of calculation procedures are given: robot behavior options, if it is possible to maintain speed depending on energy consumption; adjustment factors to take into account increase of the probability to detect an event due to improvement of the photo quality (wide format, high definition, frame frequency).
本文研究了一个迫切需要解决的问题,即智能移动机器人团队的组织控制以及它们之间的相互作用,以最有效地实现目标。该研究的目的是开发机器人行为智能规划的相关模型,该模型基于基于新的风险均衡模型的市场方法。提出了自主移动机器人活动规划任务的实体和形式化表述。建立了该模型,并建立了一套新的模拟模型,用于计算高估、低估成本及其风险。针对机器人交互的各种变量,提出了各种计算算法:在最稀缺资源(例如电池能量)受限的条件下进行控制;使用信息产品(消息)的机器人之间的交互;机器人从中心控制;信息产品的购销;机器人之间的从属关系和通信支持等决策。举例说明了机器人的行为选项(运动速度、带有照片、视频的设备、采样工具、能量限制)、事件分类(火灾、交通事故、违反法律和秩序、紧急情况、可疑物体)。给出了计算过程的示例:机器人行为选项,如果可能的话,根据能量消耗保持速度;调整因素要考虑到由于照片质量的提高(宽幅、高清、帧频)而增加的检测到事件的概率。
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引用次数: 0
Applications of computer vision in the mining industry 计算机视觉在采矿业中的应用
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-4-21
Vladimir A. Kalashnikov, V. Soloviev
n the last decade, there has been an active digitalization of industrial production based on rapidly developing information technologies, including artificial intelligence technologies. This is largely due to the development of deep learning methods and their applications in computer vision. Since the mid 2010s convolutional neural networks demonstrate exceptional efficiency in solving problems such as the detection, classification and segmentation of various objects. As a result, computer vision methods are beginning to be actively used in the problems of quality control of raw materials and finished products. All this applies to the mining industry. However, in the Russian scientific literature there are practically no systematic reviews of computer vision applications in this area. The present study aims to fill this gap. The paper provides a systematic review of the history of development and the current state of the methods and technologies of machine vision used in the mining industry for the analysis of solid materials, demonstrates the latest achievements in this area and examples of their application in the mining industry. The authors have analyzed 29 research papers in the field of application of computer vision in the mining industry and classified the stages of technology development from the mid-1980s, when computer vision was used without the use of machine learning, and ending with modern research based on the use of deep convolutional neural networks for solving problems of classification and segmentation. The effectiveness of the methods used is compared, their advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and forecasts are made for the development of computer vision methods in the mining industry in the near future. Examples are given showing that the use of convolutional neural networks made it possible to move to a qualitatively higher level of quality in solving problems of classification and segmentation as applied to the analysis of output volume, particle size distribution, including flakiness, angularity and roughness, dust and clay content, bulk density and emptiness, etc.
在过去的十年中,基于快速发展的信息技术,包括人工智能技术,工业生产的数字化一直很活跃。这在很大程度上是由于深度学习方法的发展及其在计算机视觉中的应用。自2010年代中期以来,卷积神经网络在解决各种物体的检测、分类和分割等问题方面表现出了卓越的效率。因此,计算机视觉方法开始被积极地应用于原材料和成品的质量控制问题。所有这些都适用于采矿业。然而,在俄罗斯的科学文献中,几乎没有关于计算机视觉在这一领域应用的系统综述。本研究旨在填补这一空白。本文系统地回顾了固体材料分析中机器视觉技术的发展历史和现状,展示了该领域的最新成果及其在矿山工业中的应用实例。作者分析了计算机视觉在采矿业应用领域的29篇研究论文,并对技术发展的阶段进行了分类,从20世纪80年代中期开始,计算机视觉的使用没有使用机器学习,到以使用深度卷积神经网络解决分类和分割问题的现代研究结束。比较了各种方法的有效性,讨论了各种方法的优缺点,并对计算机视觉方法在矿山工业中的发展进行了展望。给出的例子表明,使用卷积神经网络可以在解决分类和分割问题时达到质量上的更高水平,这些问题适用于分析输出体积,粒度分布,包括片状,棱角和粗糙度,灰尘和粘土含量,体积密度和空性等。
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引用次数: 1
Software for detecting “hidden miners” in a browser environment 用于在浏览器环境中检测“隐藏矿工”的软件
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-96-110
Bulat R. Kamalov, M. Tumbinskaya
Currently, a new type of information security threat is spreading – hidden mining, which uses the computing resources of users through browsers. Malicious software based on WebAssembly files unauthorizedly uses the computing resources of users of computer systems. The existing methods for detecting “hidden miners” in the browser environment are based on: dynamic analysis algorithms, however, they have a number of limitations, for example, it is required that malicious software for hidden mining work for a certain period of time, they are characterized by a large number of false positives; algorithms of browser extensions that use blacklists to prevent unauthorized access to the user’s browser environment, however, attackers often change their domain names, etc. The relevance of using special protection tools against browser-based cryptominers is beyond doubt. The purpose of this study is to increase the level of security of the browser environment of users of computer systems. Achieving this goal is possible by solving the main task - the timely automated detection of “hidden miners” in the browser environment and the prevention of unauthorized mining. The article describes software that does not depend on the browser or operating system used, is resistant to attempts to circumvent protection by intruders, will allow users to reliably recognize “hidden miners”, and increase the level of information security of a computer system. The software is based on classification algorithms implemented on the basis of a convolutional neural network. The results of the study and experimental data showed that as a result of testing the software, the recognition accuracy of “hidden miners” in the browser environment is 91.37%.
目前,一种新型的信息安全威胁正在蔓延——隐式挖掘,它通过浏览器利用用户的计算资源。基于WebAssembly文件的恶意软件非法使用计算机系统用户的计算资源。现有的在浏览器环境中检测“隐藏矿工”的方法是基于:动态分析算法,然而,它们有许多局限性,例如,它要求恶意软件对隐藏挖矿进行一定时间的工作,它们的特点是大量的误报;浏览器扩展的算法使用黑名单来防止未经授权的访问用户的浏览器环境,然而,攻击者经常改变他们的域名等。使用特殊的保护工具来对付基于浏览器的加密矿工是毫无疑问的。本研究的目的是为了提高计算机系统用户的浏览器环境的安全水平。通过解决主要任务——及时自动检测浏览器环境中的“隐藏矿工”和防止未经授权的挖矿,实现这一目标是可能的。这篇文章描述的软件不依赖于所使用的浏览器或操作系统,能够抵抗入侵者试图绕过保护的企图,将允许用户可靠地识别“隐藏的矿工”,并提高计算机系统的信息安全水平。该软件基于基于卷积神经网络实现的分类算法。研究结果和实验数据表明,经过软件测试,在浏览器环境下对“隐藏矿工”的识别准确率为91.37%。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic model for predicting quality of life indicators in the region 预测该地区生活质量指标的动态模型
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-129-143
N. Yandybaeva
An approach to assessing and forecasting indicators of the quality of life of the population in the region based on the concept of system dynamics is presented. A mathematical model has been developed, which is a system of non-linear, non-homogeneous, different-tempo differential equations, which include system variables and external factors. A digraph of causal relationships between system variables and external factors is constructed. As system variables, the model uses indicators of socio-economic development of the region: gross regional product, life expectancy at birth, population size, per capita per capita income, registered unemployment rate, birth rate, share of the population with income below the subsistence level, the weight of organizations using personal computers. The choice of external factors and functional dependencies in the developed model is substantiated. The adequacy of the developed mathematical model was checked using retrospective data and the calculation of the relative error. The interface of the author’s software application “Prognoz_2”, developed in the GUIDE MatLab environment, used to conduct computational experiments, is presented. An example of the practical implementation of the developed approach to assessing the quality of life in the Saratov and Samara regions is considered. The results of the computational experiment on the analysis and prediction of the quality of life on the time interval [2022;2026] years within the framework of the implementation of three scenarios are shown. The values of system variables in 2021 normalized relative to 2010 were used as initial conditions for the calculations. The developed software can be used to form scenarios for the socio-economic development of the region. Models and algorithms can be used as part of an information-advising system for making decisions at various levels of management.
提出了一种基于系统动力学概念的评价和预测该区域人口生活质量指标的方法。建立了一个数学模型,它是一个包含系统变量和外部因素的非线性、非齐次、异速微分方程系统。构造了系统变量与外部因素之间因果关系的有向图。作为系统变量,该模式使用区域社会经济发展指标:区域生产总值、出生时预期寿命、人口规模、人均人均收入、登记失业率、出生率、收入低于维持生计水平的人口比例、使用个人电脑的组织的权重。在开发的模型中,外部因素和功能依赖关系的选择得到了证实。利用回顾性数据和相对误差计算验证了所建立数学模型的充分性。介绍了作者在GUIDE MatLab环境下开发的用于进行计算实验的软件“Prognoz_2”的界面。本文考虑了一个实际执行评估萨拉托夫和萨马拉地区生活质量的既定办法的例子。给出了在三种场景实施框架下对时间间隔[2022;2026]年的生活质量进行分析和预测的计算实验结果。采用2021年相对于2010年归一化的系统变量值作为计算的初始条件。开发的软件可用于形成该地区社会经济发展的情景。模型和算法可以作为信息咨询系统的一部分,用于在各级管理中做出决策。
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引用次数: 0
An intelligent model for managing the risks of violation of the characteristics of electromechanical devices in a multi-stage system for processing ore raw materials 矿石原料多阶段加工系统中机电设备违反特性风险的智能管理模型
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-22-36
A. Puchkov, M. Dli, Nikolay N. Prokimnov, A. M. Sokolov
The results of studies on the development of the structure of an intelligent model for managing the risks of violation of the characteristics of electromechanical devices in a multi-stage system for processing ore raw materials are presented. Such devices are involved in all cycles of the technological process, so the assessment of this risk for them is an urgent task. A method for assessing such risks is proposed, which is based on the assessment of the useful life of equipment, performed on the basis of the prediction of characteristics by a deep recurrent neural network, with further generalization of the results of such an assessment in a fuzzy inference block. Recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory were used, which are one of the most powerful tools for solving time series regression problems, including predicting their values for long intervals. The use of deep neural networks to predict the characteristics of electromechanical devices made it possible to obtain a high prediction accuracy, which made it possible to apply a relatively less accurate recurrent least squares method for the iterative process of estimating the useful life of equipment. This approach made it possible to build a computational evaluation process with its constant refinement as new results of measurements of the characteristics of electromechanical devices become available. The results of a model experiment with a software implementation of the proposed method, performed in the MatLab 2021a environment, are presented, which showed the consistency of the program modules and obtaining a risk assessment result that is consistent with the expected dynamics of its change.
介绍了矿石原料多阶段加工系统中机电设备违反特性风险管理智能模型结构开发的研究结果。这些设备涉及技术过程的所有周期,因此对它们的这种风险进行评估是一项紧迫的任务。提出了一种基于设备使用寿命评估的风险评估方法,该方法基于深度递归神经网络对特征的预测进行评估,并将评估结果进一步推广到模糊推理块中。使用具有长短期记忆的递归神经网络,这是解决时间序列回归问题最强大的工具之一,包括预测其长间隔的值。利用深度神经网络对机电设备的特性进行预测,可以获得较高的预测精度,从而可以将精度相对较低的递归最小二乘法应用于设备使用寿命估计的迭代过程。这种方法使得建立一个计算评估过程成为可能,随着机电设备特性测量的新结果的不断改进而成为可能。给出了在MatLab 2021a环境下软件实现该方法的模型实验结果,表明了程序模块的一致性,并获得了与其预期变化动态相一致的风险评估结果。
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引用次数: 0
Method of structural synthesis of a technical vision system for the problem of area measurement 针对面积测量问题的技术视觉系统结构综合方法
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-6-122-134
Almaz R. Iskhakov
The article presents the results of a study of the problem of structural synthesis of a vision system and its parametric identification using a new method based on the mathematical apparatus of the theory of modified descriptive image algebras. The theory of modified descriptive image algebras is a mathematical apparatus that allows one to formally describe the processing and analysis of images. In this mathematical apparatus, it is possible to describe the mathematical model of the measurement function of the technical vision system for the selected attribute of the observed object. To develop mathematical models, procedural and parametric transformations of images are used. Any mathematical model in the theory of modified descriptive image algebras has at least one variational parameter. In the course of parametric identification, it is required to calculate their values. This problem is multimodal and always has at least one solution. Numerical methods are usually used to solve the optimization problem. The article describes the algorithm for constructing a mathematical model for measuring the area using procedural and parametric transformations. The parametric identification problem is solved in the form of a nonlinear optimization problem. The visualization of the objective function has been carried out and recommendations for choosing the values of its variational parameters have been formulated. The collection of statistical data was carried out and a histogram was constructed, on the basis of which the distribution law for the measured value is selected. The statistical task of testing the hypothesis with the selected law of distribution of the general population according to the Pearson criterion is solved for a given level of significance. For the unknown parameters of the chosen distribution law, the estimation of confidence intervals was carried out. The materials of the article are applied in nature and have practical value. Using the proposed approach, it is possible to develop a measurement function for any feature of the observed object on a series of images.
本文介绍了一种基于改进描述图像代数理论的数学装置的视觉系统结构综合及其参数识别问题的研究结果。修正描述图像代数理论是一种数学工具,它允许人们正式描述图像的处理和分析。在这个数学装置中,可以描述技术视觉系统对所观察对象的选定属性的测量函数的数学模型。为了建立数学模型,使用了图像的程序和参数转换。修正描述象代数理论中的任何数学模型都至少有一个变分参数。在参数辨识过程中,需要计算它们的值。这个问题是多模式的,并且总是至少有一个解决方案。通常采用数值方法来求解优化问题。本文描述了使用程序和参数转换构建测量面积的数学模型的算法。参数辨识问题以非线性优化问题的形式解决。对目标函数进行了可视化处理,并对其变分参数的取值提出了建议。收集统计数据,构建直方图,在直方图的基础上选择实测值的分布规律。在给定的显著性水平下,根据皮尔逊准则用选定的总体分布规律检验假设的统计任务得到了解决。对于所选分布律的未知参数,进行置信区间估计。本品材料在自然界中应用广泛,具有实用价值。使用所提出的方法,可以在一系列图像上为观察对象的任何特征开发测量函数。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation modeling of the adaptive speed identifier of an induction motor of a sintering machine 烧结机感应电动机自适应速度辨识器的仿真建模
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-6-36-55
V. Rozhkov, V. V. Fedotov
By means of simulation computer modeling, an effective variant of constructing an identifier for the speed of an asynchronous motor of an electromechanical system of a sintering machine is analyzed. The mathematical and algorithmic basis of the adaptive speed identifier (ASI) of an induction motor with a squirrel-cage rotor (ACIM) is given. Using the developed mathematical description of ASI with a reference model and using the apparatus of Lyapunov functions, an adequate computer simulation model was created. Compared with the existing methods for constructing identifiers in sensorless asynchronous electric drives, the proposed version of the ASI allows taking into account the discrete nature of the supply voltage of the ACIM at the output of the frequency converter with pulse-width modulation (PWM) of the output voltage and changing a larger number of equivalent circuit parameters. The stability of the speed identification process is provided in a wide range, sufficient to stabilize the speed of the trolleys according to the requirements of the technological process of sintering machines. As a result, the accuracy of speed identification in static and dynamic modes of operation of the electric drive increases. Simulation confirmed the operability of the proposed version of the identifier, proposed options for setting the AIS components. Universal, important for practical application results have been obtained, which allow both to build a high-precision system for identifying the ACIM speed in general and to refine the setting of the coefficients of the proposed version of the identifier in particular. An important property of the developed version of the ASI is its operability without loss of accuracy at near-zero and zero speeds of rotation and close to the nominal load torque on the ACIM shaft. In this regard, the practical application of the developed version, in addition to the drive of the sintering machine, is also possible in high- precision positioning systems for electric drives for various purposes.
通过计算机仿真建模,分析了一种构造烧结机机电系统异步电动机转速辨识器的有效方法。给出了鼠笼转子感应电动机自适应速度辨识器的数学基础和算法基础。利用已发展的ASI数学描述和参考模型,利用李亚普诺夫函数装置,建立了一个适当的计算机仿真模型。与现有的在无传感器异步电驱动中构建标识符的方法相比,ASI的提议版本允许考虑变频器输出处ACIM电源电压的离散性,并通过输出电压的脉宽调制(PWM)和改变更多的等效电路参数。速度识别过程的稳定性在较宽的范围内提供,足以根据烧结机工艺流程的要求稳定小车的速度。因此,在电力驱动的静态和动态运行模式下,速度识别的准确性提高了。仿真验证了提出的标识符版本的可操作性,提出了AIS组件的设置选项。这些结果具有通用性,对实际应用具有重要意义,既可以建立一个高精度的ACIM速度识别系统,又可以改进所提出的标识符版本的系数设置。ASI开发版本的一个重要特性是其可操作性,在接近零和零旋转速度和接近ACIM轴上的标称负载扭矩的情况下,精度不会损失。对此,所研制的版本在实际应用中,除了烧结机的驱动外,还可以在高精度定位系统中进行各种用途的电驱动。
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引用次数: 0
Neural network model for determining the regulations parameters in the technological process of ore raw materials processing 用神经网络模型确定矿石原料加工工艺过程中的工艺参数
IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-6-56-67
A. S. Mezentsev, L. Yasnitsky
Machine learning methods are currently widely used to solve various production problems, the problems of defects diagnosing and predicting for items in mass production, in particular. One of the most important problems is defects diagnosing and predicting, basing on its solution the regulations for the technological processes parameters and raw materials used can be determined, that insures the minimum probability of defects and the highest possible quality of manufactured products. The solution of this urgent problem with the help of a neural network model is shown on the example of the technological process for manufacturing products from fine ore material. The proposed model is based on the neural network trained on the set of historical data including examples of manufacturing products with different sets of technological parameters and raw ore material. The predicted parameter is warping of the product in one of its sections. Designing and training of the proposed neural network structure allowed achieving the coefficient of determination R2 between the predicted and actual warpage values of 92%. The dependences for the warpage value on the most significant parameters of the technological process, including thermophysical and chemical power technological processes of raw materials processing were constructed by conducting computer experiments using the method of partial freezing for input parameters. Due to these dependencies, the regulations for the most significant parameters of the production process are determined, which ensures the product to be without violating the tolerance for the warpage value specified by the design documentation. Thus, a specific example shows the possibility of using neural network modeling to solve the problem of setting regulations for the production process parameters, which compliance ensures the minimum amount of rejects and, accordingly, a higher quality of a production batch.
机器学习方法目前被广泛用于解决各种生产问题,特别是批量生产中产品的缺陷诊断和预测问题。其中最重要的问题之一是缺陷的诊断和预测,在此基础上确定工艺参数和原材料的使用规则,从而保证缺陷的最小概率和制造产品的最高质量。以细矿原料加工产品的工艺流程为例,说明了利用神经网络模型解决这一紧迫问题的方法。该模型基于一组历史数据训练的神经网络,这些历史数据包括具有不同工艺参数集和原材料集的制造产品的示例。预测的参数是产品在其中一个截面上的翘曲。所提出的神经网络结构的设计和训练允许实现预测和实际翘曲值之间的决定系数R2为92%。采用输入参数部分冻结的方法进行计算机实验,构建了翘曲值对工艺过程中最重要参数的依赖关系,包括原料加工的热物理和化学动力工艺过程。由于这些依赖关系,确定了生产过程中最重要参数的规定,这确保了产品不会违反设计文件规定的翘曲值公差。因此,一个具体的例子显示了使用神经网络建模来解决为生产过程参数设置规则的可能性,这些规则的遵从性确保了最少的次品数量,从而保证了生产批次的更高质量。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of Applied Mathematics & Informatics
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