Economic Notes最新文献

In this study, we examine the influence of a preopening call market (CM) session on the subsequent continuous double auction (CDA) trading phase within a combined market structure (CMDA). We propose that the introduction of a CM phase before the CDA could potentially mitigate price volatility during the CDA by facilitating the disclosure of agents' private information through the preopening pricing phase. Our findings reveal a positive relationship between the preopening price and the prices traded during the subsequent phase, alongside a decreased deviation of prices from their fundamental value when high-quality information is available. These results suggest that a well-defined preopening phase has the potential to improve market efficiency.

Longstanding evidence in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries shows a high prevalence of unemployment and informality among a large fraction of population, and at the same time gender disparities in labour force participation and occupational mobility. Why is there such persistent labour-market segmentation? What is the impact and potential of various formalisation policies? An overview of the informal economy across three middle-income MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia) is provided with respect to taxonomy, coverage and drivers. Transition matrices and multinomial logistic regressions are applied to longitudinal microdata from Labour-Market Panel Surveys, focusing on workers' occupational mobility in relation to their previous status, age cohort, gender and other demographics. Persistent segmentation and low occupational mobility in all countries suggest that informal employment is not driven by choice on the labour supply side but by structural constraints on the demand side. Existing formalisation policies based on distinct stick and carrot strategies, and targeting of existing businesses and workers achieve rather modest impacts. One recommendation to supplement policies for decent jobs creation is to promote social and solidarity enterprises and extend microfinance to informal enterprises.

Turkey is one of the highest donors in the world, who also receives substantial amount of aids from various entities and countries. This paper aims to investigate the on going nexus between economic growth (EG) and foreign aid (AID) in Turkey; utilizing yearly data between 1960 and 2022 by employing wavelet analysis tools: namely the power spectrum, wavelet coherence, wavelet cohesion and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) causality approach, which provides information of both long-run and short-run linkages for separate subperiods of time and frequencies. Our results reveal that; (a) the result of the power spectrum indicates that at different frequency and period, there is evidence of significant variation in EG and AID; (b) the outcome of the wavelet coherence confirms that there is comovement at varying frequencies and varying periods between EG and AID, with AID leading; (c) the outcome of the wavelet cohesion shows a positive/negative connection in the short and medium term, but a negative connection in the long term; (d) the result of the CWT causality approach confirmed the ‘feedback hypothesis’ at the aggregate level, in-phase and out-phase condition. As a result, policymakers should be more effective in supporting EG at high frequencies and only under the rule of the economic cycle.

Factors detrimental to funding females or micro-entrepreneurs arise both from the demand side of businesses, such as the absence of funding need versus self-selection despite account holding, and from the supply side of financial institutions, such as deficient financial infrastructure and discrimination towards loan applicants. A sequential model addresses both the demand and the supply sides, prior and during the COVID-19 pandemic, upon four MENA countries, namely Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. Probit regressions use two distinct though comparable sub-samples of micro-enterprises from the 2020 World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) and the Economic Research Forum (ERF) COVID-19 Monitor in 2021. Prior the pandemic, micro-enterprises are prone to self-selection vis-à-vis loan application in Tunisia (ERF) and in all North African countries (WBES). During the pandemic, no self-selection vis-à-vis government support affects either female or micro-entrepreneurs. Prior the pandemic, females or micro-entrepreneurs face no loan discrimination (WBES). During the pandemic, females face no discrimination regarding government support, whereas Moroccan micro-entrepreneurs do (ERF). Prior the pandemic, financial inclusion runs opposite to both self-selection and discrimination (WBES), but not for self-selection (ERF), whereas it proves insignificant during the pandemic with respect to self-selection or discrimination, whatever the sub-sample.

This study proposes an ‘implicit measure’ of disagreement to investigate presence of any latent discord in the policy briefings of central banks across nations. We analyse Monetary policy statements of the Bank of Japan (Japan), Banco Central do Brasil (Brazil) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (Türkiye) on both specific as well as overall economic outlook by using novel text mining tools. Subsequently, we explore the relationship of the proposed measure of implicit disagreement with the accuracy of growth and inflation forecasts. Our findings confirm that disagreement/discord among policymakers over varied economic aspects provides signals to forecasters and helps in aligning their forecasts better. The results of this study indicate that disagreement too can be considered as a plausible criterion that can explain the forecaster's belief thereby playing a positive role in ‘forecaster learning’.

Deposit insurance involves catastrophe risk because bank failures spike during a banking crisis. Although mutual insurance is ill-suited for catastrophe risk, the US government structures deposit insurance like a mutual company owned by policyholders. Furthermore, an intertemporal mispricing resulting from a dividend-surcharge arrangement produces several problems. Most importantly, it worsens moral hazard. Through dividends and surcharges, deposit insurance transfers the premium burden from high-risk banks to low-risk banks and in effect erodes the charter value of low-risk banks. In addition, high-risk banks taking catastrophe risk can outperform low-risk banks for many years in a row, putting pressures on managers of low-risk banks. Owing to these factors, an underpricing of catastrophe risk before its realization can ratchet up risk-taking by banks. Other problems with the intertemporal mispricing include making the banking business more procyclical, distorting the prices of banking products, and exposing taxpayers to asymmetric downside risk. To ensure fair competition and improve economic efficiency, the government should set the insurance premium based not on the realized loss but on the expected loss.

The study aims to identify the potential determinants of financial inclusion and its impact on the Indian Muslim minority in Tamil Nadu. statistical package for social science and analysis of moment structures software packages were used in the study. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling techniques were applied to examine the collected data (n = 300) from the Vellore district from April 2022 to March 2023. The study reveals that financial awareness, access and quality positively and significantly impact financial inclusion. However, the financial usage dimension is statistically insignificant. Additionally, the results from the moderation effect reveal that financial access and quality, along with age and annual income, significantly influence financial inclusion. In conclusion, the study contributes new dimensions to the existing literature by exploring the financial inclusion of Muslims and suggests implications and future scope for further research.