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Contestation and participation: Concepts, measurement, and inference 竞赛与参与:概念、测量和推论
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120970
Vanessa Alexandra Boese, Matthew Charles Wilson
Contestation and participation are commonly viewed as two main constituent dimensions of electoral democracy. How exactly have these two dimensions been conceptualized and measured in the literature? Are they empirically observable and do they matter for democratic development and stability? This article answers the first of these questions and considers their implications for the second by reviewing the literature on these two dimensions. We discuss three issues that affect conclusions about dimensions of democracy and their relevance for understanding democratic development: First, conceptual ambiguities—substantive overlap between the two concepts—obscure the meanings of each of the two dimensions. Such ambiguities led to a second issue, which is a concept-measurement mismatch. The conceptual contributions were never really met with an empirical equivalent that would allow us to properly measure the two dimensions. Scholars continue to invoke theoretical understandings from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, but represent them using measures that were not explicitly concerned with measuring them, which presents the third issue of concept reification. As a result of these three issues, inferences about how democracy has developed and its relevance for democratic stability or for transitions to democratic rule is potentially obscured. Based on these issues, we provide three suggestions for future research concerning the concepts of contestation and participation.
参选和参与通常被视为选举民主的两个主要组成方面。在文献中,这两个维度究竟是如何被概念化和测量的?它们对民主的发展和稳定有影响吗?本文回答了第一个问题,并通过回顾关于这两个维度的文献来考虑它们对第二个问题的影响。我们讨论了影响民主维度及其与理解民主发展的相关性的结论的三个问题:首先,概念上的模糊性——两个概念之间的实质性重叠——模糊了两个维度中每个维度的含义。这种模糊性导致了第二个问题,即概念与度量不匹配。概念上的贡献从来没有真正得到一个经验上的等价,使我们能够正确地测量这两个维度。学者们继续援引20世纪50年代、60年代和70年代的理论理解,但使用与测量它们没有明确关系的测量方法来表示它们,这就提出了第三个概念具体化问题。由于这三个问题,关于民主如何发展及其与民主稳定或向民主统治过渡的相关性的推论可能会被模糊。在此基础上,本文对未来竞聘与参与概念的研究提出三点建议。
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引用次数: 2
Electoral competition and government health expenditure in electoral autocracies: A pessimistic view 选举专制国家的选举竞争与政府卫生支出:悲观观点
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221112997
Jeong-Woo Lee
Does electoral competition affect expenditures on the provision of public goods in electoral autocracies? Previous studies firmly agree that multiparty elections are critical to autocratic survival. Accordingly, studies argue that multiparty elections lead to an increase in health expenditure in electoral autocracies. In addition to the literature, less explored is the effect of electoral competition on the expenditure. If oppositions can run elections with a higher level of electoral competition and threaten the dictator's winning over elections, would autocrats provide more public goods to citizens? This paper raises a pessimistic view on this question and argues that the impact of electoral competition does not affect government health expenditure. Empirical findings with 291 cases of 70 electoral autocracies from 2000 to 2018 and an illustrative case study of Armenia demonstrate that autocrats are less likely to provide health and education expenditures to citizens even though they face higher competition during elections.
在选举专制国家,选举竞争会影响公共产品供给的支出吗?先前的研究坚定地认为,多党选举对独裁政权的生存至关重要。因此,研究认为,多党选举导致选举专制国家的卫生支出增加。除了文献之外,较少探讨的是选举竞争对支出的影响。如果反对派能够以更高的选举竞争水平进行选举,并威胁到独裁者在选举中的胜利,独裁者会为公民提供更多的公共产品吗?本文对这一问题提出了悲观的看法,认为选举竞争的影响并不影响政府卫生支出。对2000年至2018年70个选举专制国家的291个案例的实证研究结果,以及对亚美尼亚的一项说明性案例研究表明,即使在选举期间面临更激烈的竞争,独裁者也不太可能向公民提供医疗和教育支出。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of debt crisis in Southern African Development Community (SADC) 南部非洲发展共同体债务危机预测
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120074
Crispen Chirume
Debt levels in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have been rising over the years as countries undertake infrastructure projects and the increased use of bilateral and private credit. Although on aggregate the debt levels are within SADC recommendations on macroeconomic convergence, there are growing fears that a number of countries in the region might default and indeed some are already in default. The frequent occurrence of debt crisis is a cause for concern. This research is an attempt to determine the significant predictors from a small set of variables commonly touted as important in debt crisis prediction. The research considered the output gap, real exchange rate, external debt ratios, commodity shocks and quality of governance as potential predictors. The factor variables being of particular interest Empirical findings on these potential predictors is somehow mixed, which partly is accounted for by the differences in model specifications from author to author. The research employed the event study and fixed effects logistic regression for modelling the probability of default of public debt. Results of the model illustrate that governance indicators and commodity price shocks (global level) were not statistically significant predictors of debt crisis as commonly suggested by theory. However the external debt, output and the real foreign exchange rate were all significant. Real output was shown to be one of the most important predictors of debt crisis. The estimated probability model fared relatively better than a random model.
南部非洲发展共同体(南共体)的债务水平多年来一直在上升,因为各国进行基础设施项目和增加使用双边和私人信贷。虽然总的债务水平在南部非洲发展共同体关于宏观经济趋同的建议范围内,但人们越来越担心该区域一些国家可能违约,事实上有些国家已经违约。债务危机的频繁发生令人担忧。本研究试图从一组通常被认为在债务危机预测中很重要的变量中确定重要的预测因子。该研究将产出缺口、实际汇率、外债比率、大宗商品冲击和治理质量作为潜在的预测因素。对这些潜在的预测因子的实证研究结果在某种程度上是混合的,这部分是由于作者之间模型规范的差异造成的。本研究采用事件研究法和固定效应logistic回归法对公共债务违约概率进行建模。模型结果表明,治理指标和商品价格冲击(全球水平)并不像理论通常认为的那样是债务危机的统计显著预测因素。然而,外债、产出和实际汇率都很重要。实际产出被证明是债务危机最重要的预测指标之一。估计概率模型比随机模型表现得相对更好。
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引用次数: 0
Study of Iran–Saudi Arabia Sports Relations 伊朗-沙特阿拉伯体育关系研究
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120974
Ali Mohsenifar, M. Dousti, F. Zare, G. Géczi
Political tensions and conflicts have been accompanying modern sports for a long time. The objective of this study was to determine the political reasons for not hosting football matches between Iranian and Saudi football teams. To address the research objective, a mixed-method approach was used. First, in the qualitative part, the political reasons for not hosting the matches identified through the content analysis and interviews were reviewed and evaluated by Delphi Group (25 people) in the second and third stages. Secondly, in the qualitative section of the study, the questionnaire was also used to rank the reasons. The research findings showed that tensions between Tehran and Riyadh increased after the Saudi Embassy attack in Tehran and Mashhad (January 2016) and the execution of Sheikh Nimr, a Shia sheikh opposed to the Saudi government. Saudi Arabia has requested that the Asian Champions League matches against Iranian opponents be held on neutral grounds in order to ensure the safety of its players. It is therefore recommended that sports managers and politicians in Iran reduce the political tensions between the two countries. In addition, they need to strive toward creating peace, friendship, and security between the two countries.
长期以来,政治紧张和冲突一直伴随着现代体育。这项研究的目的是确定不举办伊朗和沙特足球队之间的足球比赛的政治原因。为了实现研究目标,采用了混合方法。首先,在定性部分,通过内容分析和访谈确定的不举办比赛的政治原因由德尔福集团(25人)在第二和第三阶段进行审查和评估。其次,在研究的定性部分,也采用了问卷的方式对原因进行排序。研究结果显示,在沙特驻德黑兰和马什哈德大使馆袭击事件(2016年1月)以及反对沙特政府的什叶派酋长谢赫·尼米尔被处决后,德黑兰和利雅得之间的紧张关系加剧。沙特阿拉伯要求亚洲冠军联赛对阵伊朗的比赛在中立场地举行,以确保其球员的安全。因此,建议伊朗的体育管理人员和政治家减少两国之间的政治紧张局势。此外,他们需要努力创造两国之间的和平、友谊和安全。
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引用次数: 0
Under family control: The trend of sole candidate elections in Indonesia 家族控制下:印尼单一候选人选举的趋势
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120972
Andi Yakub, A. Armunanto, Haryanto
The rise of sole candidates in various local head elections in Indonesia has been the subject of many scholarly critical analyses. Most of the analyses perceive the phenomenon as a symptom of incumbency advantages, weak electoral systems, and poor institutionalization of political parties. This article proposes a new argument with the family-based elite perspective controlling the sole candidates’ emergence process. We compared two regions in South Sulawesi province, explaining the political family networks that dominate the political competition by limiting candidature. The sole candidate elections can be understood by looking at family-based elite networks scattered in business networks, bureaucracy, political parties, aristocrats, and grassroots mass organizations. The families use an oligarchic elite network at the national level or a plural elite network at the grassroots level. The two types of family institutions are centralized and dispersed structures: Makassar has an oligarchy, while Gowa has relatively equal elite power. The family network’s power has closed or hijacked the electoral political competition, establishing control over local elections by creating monopolistic political networks. Political family control is essential in understanding the rise of sole candidate elections in political practices.
在印尼不同地方领导人选举中,唯一候选人的崛起一直是许多学术批评分析的主题。大多数分析认为,这种现象是现任优势、薄弱的选举制度和政党制度化不良的症状。本文提出了一个新的观点,即以家庭为基础的精英视角控制着唯一候选人的产生过程。我们比较了南苏拉威西省的两个地区,解释了通过限制候选人来主导政治竞争的政治家庭网络。唯一候选人选举可以通过分散在企业网络、官僚机构、政党、贵族和基层群众组织中的以家庭为基础的精英网络来理解。这些家族在国家层面上使用寡头精英网络,在基层层面上使用多元精英网络。这两种类型的家庭制度是集中和分散的结构:望加锡是寡头政治,而果瓦是相对平等的精英权力。家族网络的力量封闭或劫持了选举中的政治竞争,通过建立垄断的政治网络来控制地方选举。政治家族控制是理解政治实践中唯一候选人选举兴起的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Do international rents bolster democratic backsliding under populist governments? Evidence from Latin America 国际租金会助长民粹主义政府下的民主倒退吗?来自拉丁美洲的证据
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120976
Daniel S. Leon
The political science literature often points to populism as the cause of democratic backsliding. The literature purports that populism undermines democracy's liberal component, meaning the horizontal checks and balances on executive power by legislatures and courts and the vertical checks and balances by civil society, such as a free press and social movements. Populists promote political polarization to build sustainable ruling coalitions during and between elections that legitimize and support the illiberal policies above. However, this debate often ignores the economic tools that populists in power possess, such as capturing direct and indirect international rents to finance clientelist mechanisms to co-opt political support. This paper contributes to the rich literature on how economic rent conditions the negative relationship between populism and liberalism by disaggregating the moderating effects of direct and indirect international rents through panel regression models in 18 Latin American countries from 1991 to 2019. I find that direct international rents, such as natural resource rents, moderated a deepening in processes of democratic backsliding. Contrastingly, indirect international rents, such as remittances, moderately mitigated democratic backsliding.
政治科学文献经常指出民粹主义是民主倒退的原因。文献声称,民粹主义破坏了民主的自由成分,即立法机关和法院对行政权力的横向制衡和公民社会(如新闻自由和社会运动)的纵向制衡。民粹主义者推动政治两极分化,在选举期间和选举间隙建立可持续的执政联盟,使上述非自由主义政策合法化并得到支持。然而,这场辩论往往忽略了民粹主义者掌权时所拥有的经济工具,比如获取直接和间接的国际租金,为庇护主义机制提供资金,以拉拢政治支持。本文通过面板回归模型对1991 - 2019年18个拉丁美洲国家的直接和间接国际租金的调节作用进行了分解,为研究经济租金如何调节民粹主义与自由主义之间的负向关系提供了丰富的文献。我发现,直接的国际租金,如自然资源租金,减缓了民主倒退进程的深化。相比之下,间接的国际租金,如汇款,适度地缓解了民主倒退。
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引用次数: 0
Populism in power—A comparative analysis of populist governance 民粹主义掌权——民粹主义治理的比较分析
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120067
Wolfgang Muno, C. Pfeiffer
In this paper, we seek to explore whether populism, when in power, is guided by a particular logic of governance that can be derived from the logic of populism itself. To this end, we develop an ideal type of populist governance and apply it to case studies of India, the United States, Venezuela, and Hungary. Methodologically, the cross-regional comparison with a Most Different Systems Design is carried out through a structured, focused comparison. We conclude that populism in power has a tendency toward autocracy that is inherent in populist governance logic. This may manifest itself “only” in democratic backsliding or regression, that is, in a deterioration of the quality of democracy, but it can also lead to autocratization.
在本文中,我们试图探讨民粹主义在执政时是否受到一种特定的治理逻辑的指导,这种逻辑可以从民粹主义本身的逻辑中推导出来。为此,我们开发了一种理想的民粹主义治理类型,并将其应用于印度、美国、委内瑞拉和匈牙利的案例研究。在方法上,跨地区比较与最不同的系统设计是通过一个结构化的,重点比较进行的。我们的结论是,民粹主义执政具有专制倾向,这是民粹主义治理逻辑所固有的。这可能“只”表现为民主的倒退或倒退,即民主质量的恶化,但它也可能导致独裁。
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引用次数: 2
Identifying the conceivable diplomatic outcomes of Sport Diplomacy initiatives 确定体育外交倡议的可能外交成果
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120973
Kambiz Abdi, Jami A. Fullerton, Mohammad Deheshti, Reza Kavand, Hamidreza Monibi, M. Talebpour
Although studies around Sport Diplomacy (SD) are expanding rapidly, there is no specific agreement on the outcomes of SD initiatives. The purpose of this study is to identify the conceivable diplomatic outcomes of SD from the perspective of international public diplomacy and sport experts. Researchers used a fuzzy Delphi method, which is an advanced version of the qualitative Delphi method that employs statistics to determine the distance between the levels of consensus within the expert panel. Thirty online surveys were completed by the experts, who were selected through targeted sampling. The statistical population included public diplomacy and sports scholars, and the researchers identified about 200 individuals who qualified for the sampling population because of their academic studies in the fields of public, cultural, and sport diplomacy. After running two rounds of fuzzy Delphi, the SD outcomes were classified into two categories of explicit/specific outcomes and implicit/general outcomes. The results showed that the outcomes of “cross-cultural communication,” “mutual understanding,” “trust building,” “nation branding,” “country reputation,” “attraction,” and “co-option” were the most possible explicit/specific outcomes of SD initiatives undertaken by countries’ ministries of foreign affairs and related agencies. “Sport industry development,” “sport tourism development,” and “socio-economic development” were the most possible outcomes of the implicit/general efforts of SD initiatives undertaken by the sport federations, private sector, NGOs, and other institutions outside the formal diplomacy system. Co-option-A term derived from Nye's theory of soft power as the ultimate goal/outcome of SD endeavors is manifested in “Peace Building (Conflict Conciliation)” between hostile states/nations and “Peace Development” between friendly states/nations.
尽管关于体育外交的研究正在迅速扩大,但对体育外交倡议的结果却没有具体的共识。本研究的目的是从国际公共外交和体育专家的角度确定可持续发展的可能外交结果。研究人员使用了模糊德尔菲法,这是定性德尔菲法的高级版本,利用统计来确定专家小组内共识水平之间的距离。通过有针对性的抽样,专家们完成了30份在线调查。统计人群包括公共外交和体育学者,研究人员确定了大约200名符合抽样人群的个人,因为他们在公共、文化和体育外交领域进行了学术研究。经过两轮模糊德尔菲后,将SD结果分为显性/特定结果和隐性/一般结果两类。结果表明,“跨文化沟通”、“相互理解”、“建立信任”、“国家品牌”、“国家声誉”、“吸引力”和“合作选择”是各国外交部和相关机构开展可持续发展活动最可能产生的明确/具体结果。“体育产业发展”、“体育旅游发展”和“社会经济发展”是体育联合会、私营部门、非政府组织和正式外交系统之外的其他机构所采取的可持续发展倡议的隐性/一般努力的最有可能的结果。合作选择——这一术语源于奈的软实力理论,认为软实力是可持续发展努力的最终目标/结果,具体表现为敌对国家/民族之间的“和平建设(冲突调解)”和友好国家/民族之间的“和平发展”。
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引用次数: 2
Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Africa: A focus on the moderating effect of Sino-African economic cooperation 非洲环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的检验——以中非经济合作的调节效应为中心
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-15 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120056
Rodrick Molonga Elekeleme, Minjun Hong
This study tested whether the Sino-African economic partnership, represented by the share of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), affected the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in Africa. Therefore, we zeroed in on 41 countries and ran a panel analysis, covering the period ranging from 2003 to 2018, to examine whether the effect of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions per capita was moderated by the share of Chinese FDI stock. We found an overall inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita with CO2 and CH4 emissions per capita. We also found that the impact of the GDP per capita on pollutants emissions per capita was contingent upon the level of the share of Chinese FDI. We estimated the turning points of GDP per capita and found that the share of Chinese FDI stock was making the turning point of CO2 per capita move left and made the data shift from the inverted U-shaped to U-shaped, and the EKC hypothesis was rejected when the share of Chinese FDI increased. On the contrary, the share of Chinese FDI stock was making the turning point of CH4 per capita move left, and still maintained the inverted U-shaped, and the EKC hypothesis was supported regardless of the magnitude of the share of Chinese FDI. These findings highlight the varying effect of the Sino-African economic ties on the environment depending on the types of pollutants. This conclusion suggests the attainment of economic growth simultaneously with the improvement of environmental quality if the Sino-African economic ties effectively help increase the GDP per capita of African countries, and become environmentally friendly driven. Controlling the type of cooperation on which the Sino-African economic partnership is grounded will be the most determinant factor in lessening the degradation of the environment in Africa.
本研究检验了以中国对外直接投资(FDI)份额为代表的中非经济伙伴关系是否影响非洲环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设的有效性。因此,我们以41个国家为研究对象,进行了2003年至2018年的面板分析,以检验人均国内生产总值(GDP)对人均二氧化碳(CO2)和甲烷(CH4)排放的影响是否受到中国FDI存量比例的调节。我们发现人均GDP与人均二氧化碳和甲烷排放量之间总体呈倒u型关系。我们还发现,人均GDP对人均污染物排放量的影响取决于中国外国直接投资的份额水平。我们估计了人均GDP的拐点,发现中国FDI存量份额正在使人均CO2的拐点向左移动,使数据从倒u型向u型转变,当中国FDI份额增加时,EKC假设被拒绝。相反,中国FDI存量占比正处于人均CH4左移的拐点,且仍保持倒u型,无论中国FDI存量占比大小,都支持EKC假设。这些发现突出了中非经济关系对环境的不同影响,这取决于污染物的类型。这一结论表明,如果中非经济联系有效地帮助非洲国家提高人均GDP,并成为环境友好型驱动,那么经济增长与环境质量改善是同步实现的。控制中非经济伙伴关系所基于的合作类型,将是减少非洲环境退化的最决定性因素。
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引用次数: 1
Qatar's multi-actors sports strategy: Diplomacy, critics and legitimisation 卡塔尔多方参与的体育战略:外交、批评和合法化
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-15 DOI: 10.1177/22338659221120065
Håvard Stamnes Søyland, Marcelo Moriconi
Drawing on official documents and empirical examples, this article analyses Qatar's sports strategy to gain attraction and generate soft power globally. The paper shows how the country based has efficiently used sport as a mean for modernisation, diplomacy and soft power, through a strategy based in the participation of national and foreign actors and institutions. While Qatar's sports diplomacy has been very ambitious, the newfound global attention has led to an increased scrutiny regarding national internal policies. This has resulted in massive criticism regarding corruption allegations and several reports of labour abuses towards the migrant workers in the country. In consequence, critics consider Qatar as an example of sportswashing, which is understood as a deliberate use of sports soft power in seeking to alter a tarnished global reputation. We claim that the Qatari strategy, even having a bit of both, can be used to generate a positive context for social development and we describe how the county has managed to engage foreign actors and institutions to counter external denounces. The context created by successful sports diplomacy strategies and evidence-based external critics might generate an adequate ecosystem to promote substantial cultural and political changes, respect for human rights and individual freedom. In this context, western countries, sport institutions and external actors play (or not) a crucial legitimator role, and so does money.
本文结合官方文献和实证案例,分析了卡塔尔在全球范围内获得吸引力和产生软实力的体育战略。这篇论文展示了这个国家如何有效地利用体育作为现代化、外交和软实力的手段,通过一项基于国内外参与者和机构参与的战略。虽然卡塔尔的体育外交一直雄心勃勃,但新获得的全球关注导致对其国内政策的审查越来越多。这导致了对腐败指控的大量批评和对该国移徙工人虐待劳工的几份报告。因此,批评人士认为卡塔尔是“体育洗白”的一个例子,这被理解为蓄意利用体育软实力,试图改变受损的全球声誉。我们声称,卡塔尔的战略,即使两者兼而有之,也可以用来为社会发展创造一个积极的环境,我们描述了该国如何设法与外国行动者和机构接触,以对抗外部谴责。成功的体育外交战略和基于证据的外部批评所创造的背景可能会产生一个适当的生态系统,以促进实质性的文化和政治变革,尊重人权和个人自由。在这种背景下,西方国家、体育机构和外部参与者扮演(或不扮演)至关重要的合法角色,金钱也是如此。
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引用次数: 4
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International Area Studies Review
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