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30 Years of East-West Migration in Germany: A Synthesis of the Literature and Potential Directions for Future Research 德国三十年的东西向移民:文献综述及未来研究的潜在方向
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-08
M. Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, Nico Stawarz, N. Sander
The reunification of the socialist German Democratic Republic and the capitalist Federal Republic of Germany presents a unique setting for studying the impact of socio-economic and political change on migration. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the interdisciplinary literature on migration between East and West Germany since reunification, conducted in disciplines such as economics, demography, sociology, and human geography. We synthesise the literature with regard to data-related challenges as well as individual and contextual determinants of migration. We clarify some misinterpretations and discrepancies in previous studies, identify research gaps, and suggest directions for future research. Our review demonstrates that East-West migration mainly occurred in line with what could have been expected based on migration theory with regard to migrants’ sex, age, education, labour market position, and social networks. West-East migration, in contrast, was strongly affected by return migrants who often stated non-occupational motives for moving. On the contextual level, differences in wages are better able to explain East-West migration over time than differences in unemployment rates. West-East migration, however, cannot be explained well with such macroeconomic models. This paper contributes a point of reference for future research on this topic, as well as on internal migration and socio-economic disparities in general.
社会主义德意志民主共和国和资本主义德意志联邦共和国的统一为研究社会经济和政治变化对移民的影响提供了独特的环境。本文全面回顾了自统一以来关于东德和西德之间移民的跨学科文献,这些文献在经济学、人口学、社会学和人文地理学等学科中进行。我们综合了关于数据相关的挑战以及移民的个人和背景决定因素的文献。我们澄清了以往研究中的一些误解和差异,确定了研究空白,并提出了未来研究的方向。我们的研究表明,根据移民理论,从移民的性别、年龄、教育程度、劳动力市场地位和社会网络来看,东西迁移的发生主要符合预期。相反,向西向东的移徙受到回返移民的强烈影响,回返移民往往表示其移徙的非职业动机。在背景层面上,工资的差异比失业率的差异更能解释东西方随时间的迁移。然而,这种宏观经济模型并不能很好地解释西向东迁移。本文为未来关于这一主题的研究以及国内移民和社会经济差异的研究提供了参考。
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引用次数: 2
“I Have to Start All over Again.” The Role of Institutional and Personal Arrival Infrastructures in Refugees’ Home-making Processes in Amsterdam “我必须从头开始。”机构和个人抵达基础设施在阿姆斯特丹难民家庭建造过程中的作用
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-04-14 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-07
Mieke Kox, Ilse van Liempt
In this study, we take the concept of arrival infrastructures as a starting point to explore refugees’ home-making processes in Amsterdam. This concept allows us to look beyond formal infrastructures set up for refugees and to take a closer look at all (f)actors playing a role in refugees’ processes of “starting all over again”. Drawing on participatory ethnographic research in a community centre for refugees, we describe the role of institutional as well as personal infrastructures in material and affective terms and show how these are related to refugees’ sense of belonging in the city. We illustrate that refugees become entangled in a web of reception/asylum seekers centres and civic integration requirements that facilitate and constrain their home-making processes in a new place. It is more the informal, personal infrastructures that enable refugees to build social and affective ties in the city. Nevertheless, refugees are still struggling with social isolation and a lack of participation due to their limited opportunities and the relatively closed character of Dutch society. This impacts their sense of belonging and comes at the cost of their integration in the city. These insights raise not only questions on the current organisation of arrival infrastructures for refugees, but also show the need to move towards a multidimensional integration model that includes the role of (civil) society in the destination society in the refugees’ integration processes. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Refugee Migration to Europe – Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions".
在这项研究中,我们以抵达基础设施的概念为出发点,探索难民在阿姆斯特丹的家庭建造过程。这一概念使我们能够超越为难民建立的正式基础设施,更仔细地审视在难民“重新开始”进程中发挥作用的所有行动者。根据难民社区中心的参与性民族志研究,我们从物质和情感角度描述了机构和个人基础设施的作用,并展示了这些基础设施与难民在城市中的归属感之间的关系。我们表明,难民陷入了一个由收容/寻求庇护者中心和公民融合要求组成的网络中,这些要求促进和限制了他们在新地方的安家过程。更多的是非正式的个人基础设施使难民能够在城市中建立社会和情感联系。尽管如此,由于机会有限和荷兰社会相对封闭,难民仍在与社会孤立和缺乏参与作斗争。这影响了他们的归属感,并以他们融入城市为代价。这些见解不仅对目前难民抵达基础设施的组织提出了问题,还表明有必要朝着多层面融合模式迈进,其中包括目的地社会中的(民间)社会在难民融合过程中的作用。*这篇文章属于“难民移民到欧洲——城市和地区的挑战和潜力”的特刊。
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引用次数: 3
Locational Choice and Secondary Movements from the Perspective of Forced Migrants: A Comparison of the Destinations Luxembourg and Germany 强迫移民视角下的区位选择与二次流动:目的地卢森堡与德国之比较
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-06
Birgit Glorius, B. Nienaber
In 2015 and 2016, the enormous increase in asylum seekers travelling along the Balkan Route confronted the Member States of the European Union with an exceptional pressure on national asylum systems. Since then academic literature has revealed a reappraisal of the Common European Asylum System at regulative and policy implementation level, notably regarding the fair distribution of asylum seekers across Member States and regions. Yet we know very little about the locational choices of forced migrants or how those choices evolved and transformed during their journey. In this paper, we aim to shed light on those decision-making processes and (individual, subjective) locational choices based on the aspiration-ability model, drawing from a series of qualitative interviews with migrants held in Luxembourg and Germany in the context of the H2020 project CEASEVAL. We focus on the migrants’ journeys to their actual recipient countries, highlighting mobility trajectories from the moment of first departure and on the process of decision-making regarding their choice of location. Then, we examine further mobility aspirations, which may lead to secondary mobility within or out of the country of residence. In the concluding section, we discuss the consequences of our findings for migration and asylum politics against the background of the “autonomy of migration” framework. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Refugee Migration to Europe – Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions".
2015年和2016年,沿巴尔干路线旅行的寻求庇护者大幅增加,使欧盟成员国的国家庇护制度面临巨大压力。从那时起,学术文献揭示了在管理和政策执行一级对欧洲共同庇护制度的重新评估,特别是在各会员国和各区域公平分配寻求庇护者方面。然而,我们对被迫移民的地点选择知之甚少,也不知道这些选择在他们的旅途中是如何演变和转变的。在本文中,我们通过在H2020项目CEASEVAL背景下对卢森堡和德国的移民进行的一系列定性访谈,旨在揭示基于抱负-能力模型的这些决策过程和(个人的、主观的)地点选择。我们关注移民前往实际接收国的旅程,强调从第一次出发的那一刻起的流动轨迹,以及他们选择地点的决策过程。然后,我们研究了进一步的流动性愿望,这可能导致居住国内部或外部的二次流动性。在结论部分,我们讨论了在“移民自治”框架的背景下,我们的研究结果对移民和庇护政治的影响。*本文属于“难民移民到欧洲-城市和地区的挑战和潜力”特刊。
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引用次数: 1
Development over Time in Cognitive Function among European 55-69-Year-Olds from 2006 to 2015, and Differences of Region, Gender, and Education 2006年至2015年欧洲55-69岁人群认知功能的随时间发展以及地区、性别和教育差异
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-03-29 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-04
Ying Zhou
With populations rapidly aging, the development over time in the cognitive function among the elderly approaching or reaching retirement is important for successful aging at work and planning pension policies. However, few studies in this field focus on this age group. This study characterizes time trends in cognitive function among 55-69-year-old Europeans from 2006 to 2015, and compares these trends by region, gender, and education. This study analyzes 40,689 subjects in Waves 2, 4, 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) covering ten countries. Cognitive function was measured by Recall and Verbal Fluency. Educational levels were classified by quartiles. A Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model was used to explore the association between cognitive function and development over time after controlling for confounders. Further stratification analysis using GEE models was conducted, stratified by region, gender and education. Cognitive function improved significantly in southern and central Europe over the observed timeframe, whereas it did not in northern Europe. Those with relative low levels of formal education displayed the most rapid increases in cognitive function in southern and central Europe. Among those with lower education in southern Europe, males’ cognitive function improved more quickly than females’. The improvement of cognitive function at ages 55-69 in southern and central Europe may contribute to continuing engagement with productive activities in old age. Educational interventions for people with lower levels of education may be most effective in achieving such engagement. This paper extends the literature on the development over time in the cognitive function among the elderly close to retirement age in Europe by analysing southern, central and northern Europe, as well as differences by region, gender and education. The results may provide evidence for planning pension policies and educational interventions.
随着人口的快速老龄化,接近或即将退休的老年人认知功能的发展对成功的工作老龄化和养老金政策的规划具有重要意义。然而,这一领域的研究很少关注这一年龄组。这项研究描述了2006年至2015年55-69岁欧洲人认知功能的时间趋势,并按地区、性别和教育程度对这些趋势进行了比较。本研究分析了欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查(SHARE)第2、4、5和6波的40,689名受试者,涵盖了10个国家。认知功能通过回忆和语言流畅度来测量。教育水平按四分位数分类。在控制混杂因素后,使用广义估计方程(GEE)模型来探索认知功能与发展之间随时间的关系。使用GEE模型进行进一步的分层分析,按地区、性别和教育程度分层。在观察到的时间框架内,南欧和中欧的认知功能显著改善,而北欧则没有。南欧和中欧那些正规教育水平相对较低的人的认知功能增长最快。在南欧受教育程度较低的人群中,男性的认知功能比女性改善得更快。南欧和中欧55-69岁人群认知功能的改善可能有助于老年人继续从事生产性活动。对受教育程度较低的人进行教育干预可能是实现这种参与的最有效方法。本文通过分析南欧、中欧和北欧,以及不同地区、性别和教育程度的差异,扩展了关于欧洲接近退休年龄老年人认知功能随时间发展的文献。研究结果可为养老金政策规划和教育干预提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
Population Ageing and Future Demand for Old-Age and Disability Pensions in Germany – A Probabilistic Approach 人口老龄化与德国未来对老年和残疾养老金的需求——一种概率方法
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-03-22 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-05
Patrizio Vanella, Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez, Christina B. Wilke
Industrialised economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates – a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. Population ageing is associated not only with longer periods of pension claims but also smaller cohorts eventually entering the labour market. This threatens the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security systems for implementing or further improving appropriate reform measures; adequate forecasts of the future population structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model considers trends in population development, labour force participation, and early retirement, as well as the effects of pension reforms. Principal component analysis is used to manage the high degree of complexity involved in forecasting trends in old-age and disability pension claims, which arises because of cross-correlations between old-age and disability pension rates, different age groups, and gender. Time series methods enable the inclusion of autocorrelations of the pension rate time series in the model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantify future risk. The latter is an important feature of our model, as the future development of the population and, eventually, the pension claims and the financial burden resulting from those claims, are highly stochastic. The model predicts that, in the median trajectory, the number of old-age pensions will increase by almost 5 million between 2017 and 2036, alongside increases in the number of disability pensions by 2036. These numbers take account of the increase in legal retirement ages as part of the 2007 pension reform. After the mid-2030s, however, a moderate decrease can be expected. The results show a clear need for further reforms, especially in the medium term.
工业化经济体的死亡率正在下降,同时生育率也很低,这种情况给社会保障系统带来了巨大压力。人口老龄化不仅与较长的养老金申请期有关,而且与最终进入劳动力市场的人数较少有关。这威胁到实施或进一步改进适当改革措施的现收现付社会保障制度的可持续性;需要对未来的人口结构进行充分的预测。我们提出了一种概率方法来预测德国到2040年的养老金数量。我们的模型考虑了人口发展、劳动力参与、提前退休的趋势,以及养老金改革的影响。主成分分析用于管理预测老年和残疾养老金申请趋势所涉及的高度复杂性,这是由于老年和残疾养恤金比率、不同年龄组和性别之间的相互关联而产生的。时间序列方法允许在模型中包含养老金利率时间序列的自相关。蒙特卡罗模拟用于量化未来风险。后者是我们模型的一个重要特征,因为人口的未来发展,以及最终的养老金申请和由这些申请产生的财政负担,都是高度随机的。该模型预测,在中位数轨迹中,2017年至2036年间,养老金的数量将增加近500万,到2036年,残疾养老金的数量也将增加。这些数字考虑到了作为2007年养老金改革一部分的法定退休年龄的增加。然而,在20世纪30年代中期之后,预计会出现适度的下降。结果表明,显然需要进一步改革,特别是在中期。
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引用次数: 2
Does women’s health matter for fertility? Evidence from Norwegian administrative data 妇女的健康对生育能力有影响吗?来自挪威行政数据的证据
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-03-08 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075
A. Syse, Michael Thomas, L. Dommermuth, R. Hart
Women’s health status may affect their opportunities and preferences for children through various mechanisms. We examine the relationship between health and fertility using Norwegian registry data (2004–18). Measuring verifiable and persistent health problems, we use uptake of doctor-certified sickness absence and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. In contrast to the expectation that poor health limits women’s opportunities for children, our results show that sickness absence is positively associated with transitions to parenthood. The uptake of long-term benefits is, however, negatively associated with fertility. The selection of healthy women into parenthood weakens the association for higher-order births. The impact of long-term health indicators on fertility is comparable in magnitude to that observed for more conventional predictors, such as education and income. With continued postponement of childbearing and thus higher maternal ages, the influence of health as a fertility determinant is likely to grow and further research appears warranted. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075
妇女的健康状况可能通过各种机制影响她们生育子女的机会和偏好。我们使用挪威的登记数据(2004-18)来研究健康和生育之间的关系。衡量可验证和持续的健康问题,我们使用医生证明的病假和长期健康相关福利作为健康的代理。与健康状况不佳限制妇女生育机会的预期相反,我们的研究结果表明,缺勤与转变为父母呈正相关。然而,长期获益与生育率呈负相关。选择健康的妇女做父母削弱了高阶生育的关联。长期健康指标对生育率的影响与教育和收入等更为传统的预测指标所观察到的影响相当。随着生育年龄的不断推迟和产妇年龄的提高,健康作为生育决定因素的影响可能会增加,似乎有必要进行进一步的研究。本文的补充材料可从http://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075获得
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引用次数: 3
Son preference and sex differentials in receipt of key dimensions of children’s healthcare: Evidence from Pakistan 接受儿童保健关键方面的儿子偏好和性别差异:来自巴基斯坦的证据
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-03-03 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2032290
B. Zaidi
Almost all research on son preference and the consequent sex differentials in child health has focused on India. Pakistan—a country with the second strongest stated desire for sons, no evidence of sex-selective abortion, and relatively high fertility—offers a different context in which to understand unequal health outcomes for boys and girls. I use three rounds of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey to examine sex differentials in child healthcare receipt across different family contexts. I find evidence of generalized discrimination: all girls, regardless of sibling composition or birth order, are less likely to receive full immunization or medical treatment. I do not find evidence that girls with older sisters face greater discrimination than other girls. For boys, I find some evidence of selective preferential treatment: among larger families, first sons are more likely to receive healthcare than other sons or daughters.
几乎所有关于重男轻女和由此产生的儿童健康性别差异的研究都集中在印度。巴基斯坦是世界上第二强烈渴望生儿子的国家,没有性别选择性堕胎的证据,生育率相对较高,这为理解男孩和女孩不平等的健康结果提供了不同的背景。我使用三轮巴基斯坦人口和健康调查来检查不同家庭背景下儿童保健收入的性别差异。我发现了普遍歧视的证据:所有女孩,无论兄弟姐妹组成或出生顺序如何,都不太可能得到充分的免疫接种或医疗。我没有发现有证据表明有姐姐的女孩比其他女孩面临更大的歧视。对于男孩,我发现了一些选择性优先待遇的证据:在大家庭中,长子比其他儿子或女儿更有可能获得医疗保健。
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引用次数: 3
Why Do Young Adults Retreat from Marriage? An Easterlin Relative Income Approach 为什么年轻人会退出婚姻?Easterlin相对收入法
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-01-26 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-03
G. Mavropoulos, Theodore Panagiotidis
Easterlin’s relative income hypothesis refers to the current income of young adults compared to the level of material aspirations acquired during childhood. The hypothesis implies that young individuals are expected to reduce fertility if their material aspirations grow at a higher rate than their incomes. This paper examines whether the same hypothesis holds true for marriage. A higher (lower) level of income combined with a lower (higher) level of material aspirations would increase (decrease) relative income and consequently could affect marriage rates. Thus, relative income might be one explanation for the “marriage paradox” which indicates that young adults in the United States retreat from marriage despite perceiving it as a milestone of their lives. One might also expect relative income to be a better predictor of marriage than absolute income. This is because, according to the Easterlin hypothesis, the behaviour of young adults reflects not only their response to changes in external conditions (e.g. absolute income), but also to past events they have experienced. We employ panel dynamic methods and causality tests for the United States that span the period from 1981 to 2016. Empirical analysis supports the relative income hypothesis. Causality tests indicate that the relationship runs mostly from relative income to marriage rather than the other way round. Relative income emerges as a stronger predictor than absolute income in all of the methods employed.
伊斯特林的相对收入假说是指年轻人目前的收入与童年时期获得的物质愿望水平相比。这一假设意味着,如果年轻人的物质愿望增长速度高于收入,他们的生育率就会降低。本文检验了同样的假设是否适用于婚姻。收入水平越高(越低),物质愿望水平越低(越高),相对收入就会增加(减少),从而可能影响结婚率。因此,相对收入可能是“婚姻悖论”的一种解释,这表明美国的年轻人尽管认为婚姻是他们人生的一个里程碑,但还是放弃了婚姻。人们也可能认为相对收入比绝对收入更能预测婚姻。这是因为,根据伊斯特林假说,年轻人的行为不仅反映了他们对外部条件(如绝对收入)变化的反应,还反映了他们过去经历的事件。我们对1981年至2016年期间的美国采用了面板动态方法和因果关系检验。实证分析支持相对收入假说。因果关系测试表明,这种关系主要从相对收入到婚姻,而不是相反。在所有采用的方法中,相对收入比绝对收入更能预测收入。
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引用次数: 0
Internal Migration, Living Close to Family, and Individual Labour Market Outcomes in Spain 西班牙国内移民、与家人住得近和个人劳动力市场结果
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-01
Clara H. Mulder,Isabel Palomares-Linares,Sergi Vidal
Migration is often viewed as a way to enhance occupational careers. However, particularly in Mediterranean countries, labour market outcomes may also depend on local family resources. We investigate how men’s and women’s labour market outcomes differ between (1) those who migrated and those who did not; and (2) those who live close to family and those who live farther away. Our main contributions are the investigation of the association between migration and labour market outcomes in a different context than the more commonly studied Northern and Western European countries and the United States, and of the role of living close to family in labour market outcomes. We used a sample of labour market participants from the “Attitudes and Expectations About Mobility” survey, conducted in Spain in 2019. Our results show that the likelihood of being a professional is greater for women who migrated than for those who did not, and that the likelihood of being unemployed or in a temporary job is lower for women who live close to family than for those who do not, but neither association was found for men. The finding for living close to family is in line with the notion that nearby family may protect women in particular from precarious labour market positions. The finding for migration differs from previous findings for Northern and Western Europe and the United States, which indicate that migration is beneficial to men in particular. This difference might be specific to a low-migration context, but data limitations prevent firm conclusions.
移民通常被视为提升职业生涯的一种方式。然而,特别是在地中海国家,劳动力市场的结果也可能取决于当地的家庭资源。我们调查了男性和女性的劳动力市场结果在(1)移民者和未移民者之间的差异;(2)与家人住得近的和住得远的。我们的主要贡献是在不同的背景下调查移民和劳动力市场结果之间的关系,而不是更常见的北欧和西欧国家以及美国,以及与家人住得近在劳动力市场结果中的作用。我们使用了2019年在西班牙进行的“对流动性的态度和期望”调查中的劳动力市场参与者样本。我们的研究结果表明,与没有移民的女性相比,移民女性成为专业人士的可能性更大,而与不与家人住在一起的女性相比,失业或从事临时工作的可能性更低,但在男性中没有发现这两种关联。与家人住得近的这一发现与这样一种观念相一致,即住得近的家庭可能会保护女性,尤其是那些不稳定的劳动力市场职位。关于移徙的调查结果不同于先前对北欧、西欧和美国的调查结果,后者表明移徙对男性尤其有益。这种差异可能特定于低迁移的上下文中,但是数据限制使我们无法得出确切的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Decrease in Life Expectancy in Germany in 2020: Men from Eastern Germany Most Affected 2020年德国预期寿命下降:东德男性受影响最大
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2021-20
M. Luy, M. Sauerberg, Magdalena M Muszyńska-Spielauer, Vanessa di Lego
The COVID-19 pandemic caused an increase in mortality in 2020 with a resultant decrease in life expectancy in most countries around the world. In Germany, the reduction in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2020 was comparatively small, at -0.20 years. The decrease was stronger among men than among women (-0.24 vs. -0.13 years) and in eastern rather than in western Germany (-0.36 vs. -0.16 years). Men in eastern Germany experienced the biggest decline in life expectancy at birth (-0.41 years). For western German men, the decline was less pronounced (-0.19 years). Among women, the decline in life expectancy at birth was also greater in eastern (-0.25 years) than in western Germany (-0.10 years). As a result of these developments, the differences in life expectancy between the two parts of Germany, and between women and men, increased compared with the previous year. Life expectancy at age 65 decreased more strongly than life expectancy at birth for both sexes and in all regions. This reflects the fact that it was mainly older age groups that were affected by the increase in mortality in 2020. This paper provides further insights into mortality changes in 2020, based on age decomposition and an analysis of lifespan inequality. We conclude that the population in eastern Germany was hit harder by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than the population in the western Germany.
2020年,新冠肺炎大流行导致死亡率上升,导致世界上大多数国家的预期寿命下降。在德国,2019年至2020年出生时预期寿命的下降幅度相对较小,为-0.20岁。男性的下降幅度大于女性(-0.24岁对-0.13岁),德国东部的下降幅度小于西部(-0.36岁对-0.16岁)。德国东部的男性在出生时的预期寿命下降幅度最大(-0.41岁)。对于西德男性来说,这种下降不那么明显(-0.19岁)。在女性中,德国东部(-0.25岁)的出生预期寿命下降幅度也大于西部(-0.10岁)。由于这些发展,德国两个地区之间以及男女之间的预期寿命差异与前一年相比有所增加。在所有地区,无论男女,65岁时的预期寿命都比出生时的预期预期寿命下降得更厉害。这反映了一个事实,即受2020年死亡率上升影响的主要是老年群体。本文基于年龄分解和寿命不平等分析,对2020年的死亡率变化提供了进一步的见解。我们得出的结论是,2020年新冠肺炎疫情对德国东部人口的打击比德国西部人口更大。
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引用次数: 4
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Comparative Population Studies
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