Natalie Nitsche,Anna Matysiak,Jan Van Bavel,Daniele Vignoli
Recent research suggests that the fertility-education relationship may be mediated by the educational attainment of the partner, especially among the tertiary-educated. However, there are no studies focusing on the couple-education-fertility nexus among couples who achieved only basic educational attainment, even though resource pooling theory predicts differences in family formation by couples’ joint levels of socio-economic resources. We address this research gap and investigate how educational pairings among married and cohabiting partners relate to second and third birth transitions across 22 European countries, using data from the EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) panel and discrete time event history models. Our findings show significantly lower second and third birth transition rates among homogamous low-educated couples compared to heterogamous couples with one low- and one medium or highly-educated partner in the Nordic countries, but not across the rest of Europe. However, couples with one or two low-educated partners have significantly lower second birth rates compared with couples with two highly-educated partners in all European regions.
{"title":"Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe: How Do the Low-Educated Fare?","authors":"Natalie Nitsche,Anna Matysiak,Jan Van Bavel,Daniele Vignoli","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-19","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research suggests that the fertility-education relationship may be mediated by the educational attainment of the partner, especially among the tertiary-educated. However, there are no studies focusing on the couple-education-fertility nexus among couples who achieved only basic educational attainment, even though resource pooling theory predicts differences in family formation by couples’ joint levels of socio-economic resources. We address this research gap and investigate how educational pairings among married and cohabiting partners relate to second and third birth transitions across 22 European countries, using data from the EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) panel and discrete time event history models. Our findings show significantly lower second and third birth transition rates among homogamous low-educated couples compared to heterogamous couples with one low- and one medium or highly-educated partner in the Nordic countries, but not across the rest of Europe. However, couples with one or two low-educated partners have significantly lower second birth rates compared with couples with two highly-educated partners in all European regions.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"179 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Explaining demographic behaviour and population change means identifying the causal mechanisms which “drive” them over time. Based on theoretical modelling and guided by empirical fi ndings in prior studies, demographic and social research pursues the improvement of knowledge about those mechanisms and the relationships between the involved factors. In demography, as in the social sciences in general, theoretical and methodological advancements over the past 50 years have greatly contributed to accomplishing this goal. Methods of longitudinal data collection as well as individualand multilevel longitudinal data analysis have gained relevance. This trend was paralleled by the development of the life course perspective in the social sciences and conceptual refi nements in cohort analysis in demographic research. Meanwhile, collecting and analysing longitudinal data is a standard procedure in individualand multi-level demographic research. Many studies using this methodological inventory have been conducted, enriching our knowledge on individual decision-making and behaviour considerably. Compared to crosssectional data, longitudinal data signifi cantly improve the conditions for identifying the “true” effects of underlying causal mechanisms. While retrospective information is already of great use, prospective panel designs enable a more appropriate and manifold collection of relevant information, as well as more refi ned statistical modelling of the interdependence between individual behaviour, its dispositional and motivational drivers, its situational conditions, and its outcomes over time. Panel data are also useful for another prominent class of methods, i. e. techniques of event history analysis (Blossfeld/Rohwer 2002; Kreyenfeld 2021). In this Special Issue of Comparative Population Studies, we review the degree to which methodological innovations in panel studies have been useful in properly identifying causal mechanisms in the study of demographic behaviour, and ultimately population change. In the fi rst contribution, methodological issues of panel data analysis are discussed and illustrated by the example of estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. The next four articles address the core question of the Special Issue with regard to major fi elds of demographic research: Comparative Population Studies Vol. 46 (2021): 487-502 (Date of release: 24.11.2021)
{"title":"Editorial on the Special Issue “The identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research”","authors":"J. Huinink, J. Brüderl","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-17","url":null,"abstract":"Explaining demographic behaviour and population change means identifying the causal mechanisms which “drive” them over time. Based on theoretical modelling and guided by empirical fi ndings in prior studies, demographic and social research pursues the improvement of knowledge about those mechanisms and the relationships between the involved factors. In demography, as in the social sciences in general, theoretical and methodological advancements over the past 50 years have greatly contributed to accomplishing this goal. Methods of longitudinal data collection as well as individualand multilevel longitudinal data analysis have gained relevance. This trend was paralleled by the development of the life course perspective in the social sciences and conceptual refi nements in cohort analysis in demographic research. Meanwhile, collecting and analysing longitudinal data is a standard procedure in individualand multi-level demographic research. Many studies using this methodological inventory have been conducted, enriching our knowledge on individual decision-making and behaviour considerably. Compared to crosssectional data, longitudinal data signifi cantly improve the conditions for identifying the “true” effects of underlying causal mechanisms. While retrospective information is already of great use, prospective panel designs enable a more appropriate and manifold collection of relevant information, as well as more refi ned statistical modelling of the interdependence between individual behaviour, its dispositional and motivational drivers, its situational conditions, and its outcomes over time. Panel data are also useful for another prominent class of methods, i. e. techniques of event history analysis (Blossfeld/Rohwer 2002; Kreyenfeld 2021). In this Special Issue of Comparative Population Studies, we review the degree to which methodological innovations in panel studies have been useful in properly identifying causal mechanisms in the study of demographic behaviour, and ultimately population change. In the fi rst contribution, methodological issues of panel data analysis are discussed and illustrated by the example of estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. The next four articles address the core question of the Special Issue with regard to major fi elds of demographic research: Comparative Population Studies Vol. 46 (2021): 487-502 (Date of release: 24.11.2021)","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41917279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is increasingly acknowledged that gender (in-) equality is one of the most significant factors underlying change in fertility behavior. Researchers have extensively studied the link between gender (in-) equality and fertility decision-making in various settings. However, most of these studies have focused on industrialized countries in North America, Europe, and East Asia, while very few examine this relationship in a non-western, developing country context. Employing individual-level survey data, this paper examines the relationship between parents’ gender role attitudes and their fertility intentions for an additional child in urban Turkey, surveyed in 2014. The findings of this study show that parents’ attitudes toward gender roles were not an important predictor of fertility decision-making in Turkey. This study suggests that the lack of significant findings supporting the expected association may be related to the measurement of gender role attitudes, suggesting a need to construct a measure that addresses culture-specific aspects of gender roles. This study contributes to the literature by providing a new data point, Turkey, and bringing a comparative perspective to the existing research.
{"title":"Gender Role Attitudes and Parents’ Intention to Continue Childbearing in Turkey","authors":"Serap Kavas","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-18","url":null,"abstract":"It is increasingly acknowledged that gender (in-) equality is one of the most significant factors underlying change in fertility behavior. Researchers have extensively studied the link between gender (in-) equality and fertility decision-making in various settings. However, most of these studies have focused on industrialized countries in North America, Europe, and East Asia, while very few examine this relationship in a non-western, developing country context. Employing individual-level survey data, this paper examines the relationship between parents’ gender role attitudes and their fertility intentions for an additional child in urban Turkey, surveyed in 2014. The findings of this study show that parents’ attitudes toward gender roles were not an important predictor of fertility decision-making in Turkey. This study suggests that the lack of significant findings supporting the expected association may be related to the measurement of gender role attitudes, suggesting a need to construct a measure that addresses culture-specific aspects of gender roles. This study contributes to the literature by providing a new data point, Turkey, and bringing a comparative perspective to the existing research.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66518415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The estimation of impact functions – that is the time-varying causal effect of a dichotomous treatment (e.g., marriage, divorce, parenthood) on outcomes (e.g., earnings, well-being, health) – has become a standard procedure in demographic applications. The basic methodology of estimating impact functions with panel data and fixed-effects regressions is now widely known. However, many researchers may not be fully aware of the methodological subtleties of the approach, which may lead to biased estimates of the impact function. In this paper, we highlight potential pitfalls and provide guidance on how to avoid these in practice. We demonstrate these issues with exemplary analyses, using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) study and estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.
{"title":"What You Need to Know When Estimating Impact Functions with Panel Data for Demographic Research","authors":"Volker Ludwig, J. Brüderl","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-16","url":null,"abstract":"The estimation of impact functions – that is the time-varying causal effect of a dichotomous treatment (e.g., marriage, divorce, parenthood) on outcomes (e.g., earnings, well-being, health) – has become a standard procedure in demographic applications. The basic methodology of estimating impact functions with panel data and fixed-effects regressions is now widely known. However, many researchers may not be fully aware of the methodological subtleties of the approach, which may lead to biased estimates of the impact function. In this paper, we highlight potential pitfalls and provide guidance on how to avoid these in practice. We demonstrate these issues with exemplary analyses, using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) study and estimating the effect of motherhood on life satisfaction. \u0000 \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47328465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.
{"title":"Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects","authors":"A. Validova","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-15","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49572317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyse Roma fertility in four neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe with a large Roma minority: in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Serbia. The sources of data are the respective national population censuses from 2011. Fertility is measured at the birth cohort level as the average number of children ever born. We make an international comparison of the fertility of Roma and non-Roma majority population women on the basis of completed education. In the case of Hungary, we also explore how the correlation between fertility and ethnic identity is modified when completed education and ethnic residential segregation are controlled. The fertility of Roma women is far above the majority population average in all birth cohorts and in each country. Educational attainment modifies this relationship. The fertility of highly educated Roma and majority population women is converging. The exposure to majority behaviour also has an effect. The lower the level of ethnic residential segregation, the smaller the difference between the fertility of Roma and majority population women. Completed education and residential segregation may exert different forces at the two ends of the educational hierarchy when their joint effect is explored. At the upper end of the social hierarchy, neither segregation nor ethnicity matters; at the lower end, however, both exposure to ethnic majority behaviour and ethnicity matter.
{"title":"Fertility of Roma Minorities in Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"L. Szabó, I. Kišš, B. Šprocha, Z. Spéder","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-14","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse Roma fertility in four neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe with a large Roma minority: in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Serbia. The sources of data are the respective national population censuses from 2011. Fertility is measured at the birth cohort level as the average number of children ever born. We make an international comparison of the fertility of Roma and non-Roma majority population women on the basis of completed education. In the case of Hungary, we also explore how the correlation between fertility and ethnic identity is modified when completed education and ethnic residential segregation are controlled. \u0000The fertility of Roma women is far above the majority population average in all birth cohorts and in each country. Educational attainment modifies this relationship. The fertility of highly educated Roma and majority population women is converging. The exposure to majority behaviour also has an effect. The lower the level of ethnic residential segregation, the smaller the difference between the fertility of Roma and majority population women. Completed education and residential segregation may exert different forces at the two ends of the educational hierarchy when their joint effect is explored. At the upper end of the social hierarchy, neither segregation nor ethnicity matters; at the lower end, however, both exposure to ethnic majority behaviour and ethnicity matter.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46869960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reviews empirical studies that have examined the causal determinants of fertility behaviour. In particular, we compare the approaches adopted in the different disciplines to improve our understanding of how birth dynamics are influenced by changes in female employment and changes in family policies. The wide array of panel data that have become available in recent years provide great potential for advanced causal modelling in this field. Event history modelling has been a dominant approach in sociology and demography. However, researchers are increasingly turning to other methods to unravel causal effects, such as fixed-effects modelling, the regression discontinuity approach, and statistical matching. We summarise selected studies, and discuss the advantages and the shortcomings of the different approaches. In an empirical section, we analyse the impact of the German 2007 policy reform on birth behaviour to illustrate the difficulties involved in isolating policy effects. The final chapter concludes by underscoring that even simple modelling strategies may be beneficial for improving our understanding of how policy effects shape demographic behaviour, and for laying the groundwork for more fine-grained causal investigations. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.
{"title":"Causal Modelling in Fertility Research: A Review of the Literature and an Application to a Parental Leave Policy Reform","authors":"M. Kreyenfeld","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-10","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews empirical studies that have examined the causal determinants of fertility behaviour. In particular, we compare the approaches adopted in the different disciplines to improve our understanding of how birth dynamics are influenced by changes in female employment and changes in family policies. The wide array of panel data that have become available in recent years provide great potential for advanced causal modelling in this field. Event history modelling has been a dominant approach in sociology and demography. However, researchers are increasingly turning to other methods to unravel causal effects, such as fixed-effects modelling, the regression discontinuity approach, and statistical matching. We summarise selected studies, and discuss the advantages and the shortcomings of the different approaches. In an empirical section, we analyse the impact of the German 2007 policy reform on birth behaviour to illustrate the difficulties involved in isolating policy effects. The final chapter concludes by underscoring that even simple modelling strategies may be beneficial for improving our understanding of how policy effects shape demographic behaviour, and for laying the groundwork for more fine-grained causal investigations. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on “Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48249137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The changing macro-level relationship between fertility and development (i.e., the standard of living, health and education) from negative to positive for the most advanced economies has received considerable attention recently. Using aggregate data, we compare the relationship between fertility and development in Western countries with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where fertility rates are higher than in other regions with identical levels of development. To understand the drivers of this association, we further link fertility to the components of development as well as female labour force participation separately. Our findings show that fertility and development were positively associated for only a short period in Western countries and that the relationship turned negative again in recent years. Recent data also show that there is no significant relationship between fertility and development in MENA countries. These findings indicate that the well-acknowledged theories of fertility and development do not apply in every context.
{"title":"On the Relationship between Fertility, Development and Gender Equality: A Comparison of Western and MENA Countries","authors":"Zafer Buyukkececi, H. Engelhardt","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2021-09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2021-09","url":null,"abstract":"The changing macro-level relationship between fertility and development (i.e., the standard of living, health and education) from negative to positive for the most advanced economies has received considerable attention recently. Using aggregate data, we compare the relationship between fertility and development in Western countries with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where fertility rates are higher than in other regions with identical levels of development. To understand the drivers of this association, we further link fertility to the components of development as well as female labour force participation separately. Our findings show that fertility and development were positively associated for only a short period in Western countries and that the relationship turned negative again in recent years. Recent data also show that there is no significant relationship between fertility and development in MENA countries. These findings indicate that the well-acknowledged theories of fertility and development do not apply in every context.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42555627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.
{"title":"The Association between Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes and Cohort Fertility: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Camila F. Soares, Everton E. C. Lima","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2021-08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2021-08","url":null,"abstract":"Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45116130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Panel data has become the gold standard for causal assessments of complex human behaviour in quantitative social science. The objective of this review is to examine and discuss how panel data and related methods contribute to the identification of causal relationships in spatial mobility research. We illustrate this by providing a succinct overview of recent progress in spatial mobility research, drawing on panel data. The review outlines research from a number of scholarly disciplines that maps patterns, establishes determinants and assesses the impact of spatial mobility for a range of outcomes. Studies presented in this article are used to decipher complex interdependencies over the life course, scrutinise the selectivity of migrants, and shed light on the interplay between individual agency, social embeddedness and socio-structural contexts. The article concludes with a set of critical issues for future research. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".
{"title":"Panel Data in Research on Mobility and Migration: A Review of Recent Advances","authors":"Sergi Vidal, P. Lersch","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-07","url":null,"abstract":"Panel data has become the gold standard for causal assessments of complex human behaviour in quantitative social science. The objective of this review is to examine and discuss how panel data and related methods contribute to the identification of causal relationships in spatial mobility research. We illustrate this by providing a succinct overview of recent progress in spatial mobility research, drawing on panel data. The review outlines research from a number of scholarly disciplines that maps patterns, establishes determinants and assesses the impact of spatial mobility for a range of outcomes. Studies presented in this article are used to decipher complex interdependencies over the life course, scrutinise the selectivity of migrants, and shed light on the interplay between individual agency, social embeddedness and socio-structural contexts. The article concludes with a set of critical issues for future research. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on \"Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47845928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：