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Disparities in Subjective Well-being by Sexual Orientation: Comparing Cohorts from pairfam’s (2008-09) and FReDA’s (2021) Baseline Waves 按性取向划分的主观幸福感差异:比较pairfam(2008-09)和FReDA(2021)基线波的队列
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-09
K. Hank, Franz J. Neyer, C. Thönnissen
Significant expansion of legal rights and recognition of sexual minority populations triggered expectations that structural stigma, sexual minority stress and, consequently, previously well-documented disadvantages in health and well-being may decline over time. The empirical evidence on this issue is, however, still sparse and inconclusive. We contribute to this research by comparing baseline data from the German Family Panel (pairfam; 2008-09) and the German Family Demography Panel Study (FReDA; 2021). These data allow us to assess disparities in subjective well-being by sexual orientation and potential changes therein after legalisation of same-sex marriage in Germany in two adult cohorts interviewed more than a decade apart. We focus on two specific outcomes, namely life satisfaction and self-rated health. Two main findings emerged from our analysis: First, minority sexual orientation is associated with significantly lower subjective well-being, specifically lower life satisfaction. Second, there are no statistically significant changes in the sexual orientation-health nexus between cohorts. Our study, thus, neither lends support to “optimistic” expectations regarding the contribution of (further) reductions in institutional discrimination and structural stigma to (further) reductions in remaining disadvantages, nor does it lend support to “pessimistic” expectations suggesting that younger cohorts of sexual minority adults may experience an even larger gap in health and well-being than previous cohorts. We propose that the stability of sexual minorities’ disadvantages in subjective well-being during the first two decades of the 21st century in Germany be interpreted as the result of two opposing forces working in parallel: Reduced institutional discrimination and increased exposure to continued stigma. The legal recognition of same-sex relationships appears to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for the acceptance of sexual minorities. Remaining disparities by sexual orientation will thus not simply disappear when institutional discrimination of sexual minorities is eliminated. Currently, we may therefore find ourselves in a “transitory period” whose further evolution is difficult to predict. FReDA – with its evolving longitudinal dimension and the inclusion of self-reported measures of respondents’ sexual orientation – will constitute a powerful resource for future investigations of inequalities in yet understudied but increasingly visible sexual minority populations.* This article belongs to a special issue on “Family Research and Demographic Analysis – New Insights from the German Family Demography Panel Study (FReDA)”.
法律权利的大幅扩大和对性少数群体的承认引发了人们的期望,即结构性污名化、性少数群体压力,以及由此产生的先前有充分记录的健康和福祉方面的不利因素,可能会随着时间的推移而下降。然而,关于这一问题的经验证据仍然稀少,没有定论。我们通过比较德国家庭小组(pairfam;2008-09)和德国家庭人口学小组研究(FReDA;2021)的基线数据,为这项研究做出了贡献。这些数据使我们能够评估在德国同性婚姻合法化后,两个相隔十多年接受采访的成年人群体在性取向方面的主观幸福感差异及其潜在变化。我们关注两个具体的结果,即生活满意度和自我评价的健康。我们的分析得出了两个主要发现:首先,少数群体的性取向与显著较低的主观幸福感,特别是较低的生活满意度有关。其次,队列之间的性取向与健康之间的关系没有统计学上的显著变化。因此,我们的研究既不支持“乐观”的预期,即(进一步)减少制度歧视和结构性污名对(进一步)降低剩余劣势的贡献,它也没有支持“悲观”的预期,即年轻的性少数成年人群体可能比以前的群体在健康和幸福方面存在更大的差距。我们建议,在21世纪的头20年里,德国性少数群体在主观幸福感方面的劣势之所以稳定,可以解释为两种对立力量同时作用的结果:制度歧视的减少和持续污名化的增加。对同性关系的法律承认似乎是接受性少数群体的必要但不充分的条件。因此,当消除对性少数群体的制度歧视时,性取向方面的剩余差异不会简单地消失。因此,目前,我们可能会发现自己处于一个“过渡期”,其进一步演变很难预测。FReDA——其不断发展的纵向维度和对受访者性取向的自我报告测量——将成为未来调查尚未得到充分研究但越来越明显的性少数群体中不平等现象的有力资源。*本文属于“家庭研究和人口统计分析——德国家庭人口统计小组研究的新见解”。
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引用次数: 1
Labour Market Participation and Fertility in Seven European Countries: A Comparative Perspective 七个欧洲国家的劳动力市场参与与生育率:比较视角
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-08
F. Tomatis, R. Impicciatore
Although evidence suggests a correlation between fertility and employment, comparative studies on this topic are relatively scarce, particularly when considering the diverse ways in which the two variables interact in different countries. The aim of this article is to analyse the relationship between the employment and reproductive behaviours of women born between 1940 and 1979 in seven European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Georgia, Italy, and Lithuania). Using data from the second wave of Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) and the Istat survey Famiglia e Soggetti Sociali (FSS) in Italy, we estimated the propensity of first and second childbirth through multi-process modelling. The article’s contribution is both theoretical and methodological. First, this research aims to investigate the correlation between employment and the timing of first and second births in a comparative perspective challenging the traditional East-West divide in Europe and the potential convergence in the impact of employment on fertility behaviours across European countries. Furthermore, the study asks whether the relationship between employment and fertility is changing similarly across European countries or whether differences tend to persist over time. The results are discussed considering women’s emancipation in different institutional settings, highlighting how women’s participation in labour markets affects reproductive behaviour. In particular, the relationship between employment and fertility behaviour is examined in relation to the opposing macro-level thesis, which suggests that the association between employment and fertility changed from negative to positive after the mid-80s. The second contribution of the article is a methodological one. It involves using simultaneous models with three equations to account for potential unobserved factors that influence the timing of the first and second childbirth and the potential endogeneity of employment status on fertility behaviour. The three equations include two log-Hazard equations for the transitions to the first and second birth order and an additional probit model to estimate the probability of being currently employed over the life course. By using this approach, we aim to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between employment and fertility, while controlling for potential confounding factors. Results suggest relevant national differences. On the one hand, the three Western countries considered in the analysis, France, Germany, and Italy, show a clear incompatibility of work and childbearing. However, in the first two, younger cohorts seem to be less affected by employment, likely because they benefitted from family policies introduced after the mid-1980s. On the other hand, the post-socialist countries are highly heterogeneous. In this area, we can find three different models. First, in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic employment is largely compatible with f
尽管有证据表明生育率和就业之间存在相关性,但关于这一主题的比较研究相对较少,尤其是在考虑到这两个变量在不同国家相互作用的不同方式时。本文的目的是分析1940年至1979年间在七个欧洲国家(保加利亚、捷克共和国、法国、德国、格鲁吉亚、意大利和立陶宛)出生的妇女的就业和生殖行为之间的关系。利用第二波世代和性别调查(GGS)和意大利Istat调查Famiglia e Soggetti Sociali(FSS)的数据,我们通过多过程建模估计了第一次和第二次分娩的倾向。这篇文章的贡献既是理论上的,也是方法上的。首先,本研究旨在从比较的角度调查就业与第一胎和第二胎出生时间之间的相关性,挑战欧洲传统的东西方差距,以及就业对欧洲各国生育行为影响的潜在趋同。此外,该研究还询问,欧洲国家的就业和生育率之间的关系是否也在发生类似的变化,或者差异是否会随着时间的推移而持续存在。讨论的结果考虑到妇女在不同机构环境中的解放,强调妇女参与劳动力市场如何影响生殖行为。特别是,将就业与生育行为之间的关系与相反的宏观层面论文联系起来研究,该论文表明,就业与生育之间的联系在80年代中期后从负向正转变。这篇文章的第二个贡献是方法论的。它涉及使用具有三个方程的联立模型来解释影响第一次和第二次分娩时间的潜在未观察到的因素,以及就业状况对生育行为的潜在内生性。这三个方程包括两个用于过渡到第一和第二出生顺序的log Hazard方程,以及一个额外的probit模型,用于估计目前在整个生命过程中使用的概率。通过使用这种方法,我们旨在更全面地了解就业和生育率之间的关系,同时控制潜在的混杂因素。结果表明存在相关的国家差异。一方面,分析中考虑的三个西方国家,法国、德国和意大利,在工作和生育方面表现出明显的不相容性。然而,在前两个阶段,年轻群体似乎不太受就业影响,可能是因为他们受益于20世纪80年代中期后出台的家庭政策。另一方面,后社会主义国家是高度异质的。在这个区域,我们可以找到三种不同的模型。首先,在保加利亚和捷克共和国,就业在很大程度上与生育选择相一致,导致职业妇女有更高的第一次和第二次分娩的倾向。其次,在立陶宛,就业对第一次分娩的积极影响对第二次分娩的消极影响。第三,在格鲁吉亚,我们发现两种生育令都明显推迟了职业妇女的分娩。总的来说,我们的研究结果显示了各国之间的深刻差异,这表明一些欧洲国家在就业和生育率之间的关系上远未表现出趋同。
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引用次数: 0
Gender Norms under Socialism and Capitalism: A Historical Examination of Attitudes towards Maternal Employment in the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany 社会主义和资本主义下的性别规范:德意志民主共和国和德意志联邦共和国对母亲就业态度的历史考察
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-07
Leonie Kleinschrot
Research on the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) in the 1980s shows a high level of congruence between conservative social policy deterring mothers from employment and traditional societal gender norms. In contrast, little is known about whether people in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) agreed with the socialist idea of continuous full-time maternal employment. Based on unexploited GDR data from 1984 and a description of contemporary social policy, this study examines attitudes towards maternal employment, whether they were related to individual preferences for work or children, and their congruence with the socialist policy. The same questions are examined for the FRG using data from 1982. Results for the GDR indicate that one third of respondents rejected the socialist idea of maternal full-time employment, with individual work preferences being decisive for respondents’ assessments. In the FRG, there was a high degree of agreement with the gender norm of maternal non-employment, with this being dependent on individual preferences for children. These findings complement post-reunification evidence on East-West-differences in gender norms and provide insights into attitudes under Eastern European state socialism. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”.
20世纪80年代对德意志联邦共和国的研究表明,阻止母亲就业的保守社会政策与传统社会性别规范之间存在高度一致性。相比之下,人们对德意志民主共和国(GDR)人民是否同意持续全职孕产妇就业的社会主义理念知之甚少。基于1984年未开发的GDR数据和对当代社会政策的描述,本研究考察了人们对孕产妇就业的态度,这些态度是否与个人对工作或子女的偏好有关,以及它们与社会主义政策的一致性。FRG使用1982年的数据对同样的问题进行了研究。GDR的结果表明,三分之一的受访者拒绝接受母亲全职工作的社会主义理念,个人工作偏好对受访者的评估起决定性作用。在FRG中,与母亲不就业的性别规范高度一致,这取决于个人对儿童的偏好。这些发现补充了统一后关于东西方性别规范差异的证据,并为东欧国家社会主义下的态度提供了见解。*这篇文章属于“社会主义国家转型前后东欧和西欧的人口发展”特刊。
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引用次数: 0
The Sensitivity of the Healthy Life Years Indicator: Approaches for Dealing with Age-Specific Prevalence Data 健康寿命年指标的敏感性:处理特定年龄流行数据的方法
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-04-06 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-06
Vanessa di Lego, M. Sauerberg
The Healthy Life Years (HLY) indicator is the official European Union indicator and a cornerstone of many health policies used in over 15 countries in the EU region to set national health plans and monitor targets. It is also used to investigate trends over time in the proportion of total life years spent in good or poor health, socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality and the male-female health survival paradox. Based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) included in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), a great amount of effort has been directed at harmonising and making HLY comparable across countries. Nonetheless, the characteristics of the age-specific prevalence distribution are still rarely accounted for, regardless of the fact that patterns of prevalence often fluctuate considerably by age. In addition, the impact of assumptions used at very young ages on HLY estimates are seldom discussed, despite the fact that the majority of policies and initiatives at the EU level use HLY at birth, while data on health is only available after age 16. In this paper, we assess whether smoothing the age-specific prevalence distributions by different methods, extrapolating to older ages and changing assumptions at younger ages affect HLY estimates. Overall, assumptions made before age 15 are the most important and affect women and men differently, thus affecting HLY at birth for some countries. Estimates at age 65 are very slightly impacted. Generalised linear models (GAMs) seem promising for harmonising and extrapolating to older ages, while using polynomials or aggregating into 5-year age groups seem best for younger ages. As most EU policies use HLY at birth and by sex for developing and monitoring health policies, caution is needed when estimating HLY at birth. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Levels and Trends of Health Expectancy: Understanding its Measurement and Estimation Sensitivity”.
健康生命年(HLY)指标是欧洲联盟的官方指标,也是欧盟区域超过15个国家用于制定国家卫生计划和监测目标的许多卫生政策的基石。它还用于调查健康状况良好或健康状况不佳的生命年数所占比例的长期趋势、健康和死亡率方面的社会经济不平等以及男女健康生存悖论。根据欧盟收入和生活条件统计(EU-SILC)中包含的全球活动限制指标(GALI),人们已经做出了大量努力,以协调各国的HLY并使其具有可比性。尽管如此,尽管患病率的模式往往随年龄波动很大,但仍然很少考虑到具体年龄的患病率分布特征。此外,尽管欧盟一级的大多数政策和举措都使用出生时的健康寿命,但很少讨论幼年时使用的假设对健康寿命估计的影响,而健康数据仅在16岁以后可用。在本文中,我们评估了通过不同的方法平滑特定年龄的患病率分布,外推到更大的年龄和改变年轻年龄的假设是否会影响HLY估计。总的来说,在15岁之前做出的假设是最重要的,对女性和男性的影响是不同的,因此影响到一些国家出生时的新生儿死亡率。估计65岁的人受到的影响很小。广义线性模型(GAMs)似乎有希望协调和外推到更大的年龄,而使用多项式或汇总到5岁年龄组似乎最适合年轻人。由于大多数欧盟政策在制定和监测卫生政策时使用出生时的新生儿死亡率和按性别分列的新生儿死亡率,因此在估计出生时的新生儿死亡率时需要谨慎。*本文属于“健康预期的水平和趋势:了解其测量和估计敏感性”特刊。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational Solidarity Revisited: Migrant Families in the Dilemma of Providing Family or Elderly Care in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic and its Challenges 重新审视代际团结:2019冠状病毒病大流行及其挑战背景下,面临家庭或养老困境的移民家庭
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-05
Magdalena Ślusarczyk
The assumption that people live in one place with their lives guided by a singular set of national and cultural norms no longer holds true. The same applies for migrating due to various reasons with the aim of finding a better place to live. Instead, contemporary transnational migrants are accustomed to operating in several contexts of employment, leisure and political interests that extend beyond national borders. Yet, state borders still cut through the very core of the family life, forcing migrants to take difficult decisions about leaving, separation or arranging care of children and elderly, but also creating a certain degree of choice between two or more socio-political social and cultural contexts. Events of recent years have shaken established beliefs about the potential of transnational care networks. As the experience of the Covid-19 pandemic has shown, what once seemed to be enduring rules can be suspended for long periods of time. For Poland, one of the countries affected by intense mobility to and from the country, discussions about the effects of migration on care networks are of paramount importance. As a direct consequence of mobility, the expectations and obligations that migrants (especially women) have towards the family they leave behind may change, shift or even remain unrestricted in spite of living abroad. Yet, establishing family care strategies for elderly family members in ageing societies is also based on the assumption of availability of migrant labour. Drawing on two sets of data, this article asks how intergenerational obligations were negotiated during the Covid-19 pandemic and whether the associated long-term restrictions on crossing national borders caused changes in patterns of care provision. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”.
人们生活在一个地方,他们的生活受到一套单一的国家和文化规范的指导,这种假设不再成立。这同样适用于由于各种原因而移民,目的是寻找更好的居住地。相反,当代跨国移民习惯于在跨越国界的就业、休闲和政治利益等多种背景下运作。然而,国家边界仍然切断了家庭生活的核心,迫使移民在离开、分离或安排照顾孩子和老人方面做出艰难的决定,但也在一定程度上在两种或更多的社会政治、社会和文化背景之间做出选择。近年来发生的事件动摇了人们对跨国护理网络潜力的既定信念。正如2019冠状病毒病大流行的经验所表明的那样,曾经看似持久的规则可能会被长期搁置。波兰是受人口流动严重影响的国家之一,讨论移徙对护理网络的影响至关重要。作为流动的直接后果,移徙者(特别是妇女)对其留下的家庭的期望和义务可能会改变、转移,甚至不受限制,尽管他们住在国外。然而,在老龄化社会中为老年家庭成员制定家庭护理战略也是基于可获得移徙劳工的假设。本文利用两组数据,探讨了在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,代际义务是如何协商的,以及相关的跨境长期限制是否导致了护理提供模式的变化。*本文属于“社会主义国家转型前后东欧和西欧人口发展”特刊。
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引用次数: 0
Biases in Assertions of Self-Rated Health 自评健康断言中的偏见
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-04
P. Lazarevič
Comparative analyses frequently examine respondents’ self-rated health (SRH), assuming that it is a valid and comparable measure of generic health. However, given SRH’s vagueness, this assumption is questionable due to (1) manifold non-health influences, such as personal characteristics including optimism, interviewer effects on the rating, and cultural contexts, as well as (2) potential gender, age- or country-specific expectations for one’s health or frames of reference. Conceptually, two major components of SRH can be distinguished: latent health and reporting behavior. While latent health exclusively refers to objective health status, reporting behavior collectively refers to non-health characteristics (NH) affecting SRH. The present paper is primarily concerned with the latter and aims to identify whether and how NH bias SRH, including possible differences by gender, age, and country of residence. The presented analyses are based on data from 16,183 participants in five countries drawn from the fifth wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Latent health is controlled via a wide array of health indicators and the residuals are examined with a model covering NH from three different sources: the interviewer, the respondent, and the country of residence. To identify subgroup-specific response behaviors, all analyses are carried out separately by gender, three age groups (50-64, 65-79, and 80+ years), and country of residence. The analyses uncovered influences of – among others–the interviewer’s SRH, the respondent’s life satisfaction, and the country of residence on SRH, while other factors differed by subgroup. The amount of explained variance due to such reporting behavior (with a mean of seven percent) can be deemed meaningful, considering that controlling for latent health already explains around half of SRH’s variance. The greatest source of non-health influences was respondent characteristics, with the interviewer and country having smaller effects. These results illustrate the importance of taking NH into account when using SRH measures. Future research on complementing SRH with factual questions in survey design is advisable. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Levels and Trends of Health Expectancy: Understanding its Measurement and Estimation Sensitivity”.
比较分析经常检查应答者的自评健康(SRH),假设它是一般健康的有效和可比较的衡量标准。然而,考虑到SRH的模糊性,这一假设是值得怀疑的,因为(1)多种非健康影响,如个人特征,包括乐观主义,采访者对评分的影响,文化背景,以及(2)潜在的性别,年龄或国家对个人健康或参考框架的特定期望。从概念上讲,SRH的两个主要组成部分可以区分:潜在健康和报告行为。潜在性健康仅指客观健康状态,而报告行为则是指影响潜在性健康的非健康特征(NH)。本文主要关注后者,旨在确定NH是否以及如何影响SRH,包括性别、年龄和居住国可能存在的差异。所提出的分析基于来自五个国家的16,183名参与者的数据,这些数据来自欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查(SHARE)的第五次浪潮。潜在健康是通过一系列广泛的健康指标来控制的,残差是用一个模型来检查的,该模型涵盖了来自三个不同来源的NH:采访者、被调查者和居住国。为了确定亚组特定的反应行为,所有分析均按性别、三个年龄组(50-64岁、65-79岁和80岁以上)和居住国分别进行。分析揭示了访谈者的性生活质量、被调查者的生活满意度和居住国等因素对性生活质量的影响,而其他因素则因小组而异。考虑到控制潜在健康状况已经解释了大约一半的SRH方差,这种报告行为(平均为7%)导致的可解释方差的数量可以被认为是有意义的。非健康影响的最大来源是受访者的特征,访谈者和国家的影响较小。这些结果说明了在使用SRH测量时考虑NH的重要性。未来的研究建议在调查设计中用事实性问题补充SRH。*本文属于“健康预期的水平和趋势:了解其测量和估计敏感性”特刊。
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引用次数: 1
Is Wife’s Marital Satisfaction Associated with Husband’s Dominance in Family Affairs? Empirical Evidence from China 妻子的婚姻满意度与丈夫在家庭事务中的主导地位有关吗?来自中国的经验证据
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-03
Zhongwu Li
Employing data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the paper empirically examines the relation between husband’s dominance in family affairs and wife’s marital satisfaction. While applying the ordinal probit model and ordinary least squares (OLS) method, the paper finds that wife’s reported marital satisfaction is positively associated with her husband’s dominant role in family affairs. This conclusion remains valid after using an instrumental variable to deal with endogeneity and performing some robustness tests. Some heterogeneities exist: the association is particularly prominent among those women who have traditional gender norms and are living in rural areas. These women tend to embrace the traditional gender ideology which stipulates that men are the masters of the family.
运用中国家庭面板研究的数据,实证检验了丈夫在家庭事务中的主导地位与妻子婚姻满意度之间的关系。在应用序数probit模型和普通最小二乘法的基础上,本文发现妻子的婚姻满意度与丈夫在家庭事务中的主导地位呈正相关。在使用工具变量处理内生性并进行一些稳健性检验后,这一结论仍然有效。存在一些异质性:这种联系在那些有传统性别规范并生活在农村地区的妇女中尤为突出。这些女性倾向于接受传统的性别意识形态,即男性是家庭的主人。
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引用次数: 0
Fertility Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Developed Countries – On Pre-pandemic Fertility Forecasts 发达国家应对新冠肺炎大流行的生育率——关于产前生育率预测
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-02
Patrizio Vanella, A. Greil, Philipp Deschermeier
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important for policy decisions and planning, we need to address to which extent fertility forecasts performed before the pandemic still apply. Using Monte Carlo forecasting based on principal components of fertility rates, we quantify the effects of the pandemic on fertility for 22 countries and discuss whether forecasts made prior to the pandemic need adjustment based on more recent data. Among the studied countries, 14 countries show no significant effect of the pandemic at all, while six countries have significantly lowered numbers of births in comparison to counterfactual trajectories that assume that past trends will hold. These countries are primarily in the Mediterranean and East Asia. For Finland and South Korea, there is statistical evidence for increased fertility in the early phases of the pandemic. In all cases with statistically significant fertility differentials caused by the pandemic, reproductive behavior normalized quickly. Therefore, we find no evidence for long-term effects of the pandemic on fertility, leading to the conclusion that pre-pandemic fertility forecasts still apply.
2019冠状病毒病大流行影响了我们生活的方方面面。除其他成果外,学术文献和大众媒体都讨论了该流行病对生育率的潜在影响。由于生育率是人口发展的一个重要决定因素,人口预测对政策决定和规划也很重要,我们需要解决在大流行之前进行的生育率预测在多大程度上仍然适用的问题。利用基于生育率主成分的蒙特卡罗预测,我们量化了大流行对22个国家生育率的影响,并讨论了在大流行之前做出的预测是否需要根据最近的数据进行调整。在所研究的国家中,14个国家根本没有显示出大流行的重大影响,而6个国家与假设过去趋势将保持不变的反事实轨迹相比,大大降低了出生人数。这些国家主要在地中海和东亚。在芬兰和韩国,有统计证据表明,在大流行的早期阶段,生育率有所提高。在大流行造成生育率显著差异的所有情况下,生殖行为很快恢复正常。因此,我们没有发现大流行对生育率产生长期影响的证据,因此得出结论,大流行前的生育率预测仍然适用。
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引用次数: 0
Trends and Determinants of Birth Registration Completeness in Zimbabwe, 2005-2015 2005-2015年津巴布韦出生登记完整性的趋势和决定因素
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2023-01
Ronald Musizvingoza, N. Wekwete, K. Mangombe, Garikai Zinumwe
Childbirth registration in Zimbabwe has decreased over the years, yet the risk factors associated with this incompleteness have not been explored. This study investigates the trends in birth registration completeness and factors associated with the decrease in birth registration among children aged 0-5 years from 2005-2015. We use data from the, 2005-06, 2010-11 and 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey. Trends in birth registration completeness based on survey year were calculated and multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictors of birth registration. Birth registration completeness was 75.4 percent, 47.3 percent, and 43.8 percent in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Inequities in birth registration completeness become apparent when examined by wealth, urban/rural location, geographical region, maternal education, healthcare utilisation, and marital status. Child age, maternal education, marital status, household wealth status, residence, province, and delivery place were significant predictors of birth registration. Efforts to improve birth registration in Zimbabwe should target children born at home, children born to single and young mothers, and children whose mothers are poor and reside in rural areas.
津巴布韦的出生登记近年来有所减少,但与这种不完整性相关的风险因素尚未得到探讨。本研究调查了2005-2015年0-5岁儿童出生登记完整性的趋势以及与出生登记减少相关的因素。我们使用了2005-06年、2010-11年和2015年津巴布韦人口与健康调查的数据。计算了基于调查年份的出生登记完整性趋势,并使用多变量逻辑回归模型来估计出生登记的预测因素。出生登记完整性为75.4 百分比,47.3 百分比和43.8 分别为2005年、2010年和2015年的百分比。从财富、城市/农村位置、地理区域、母亲教育、医疗保健利用率和婚姻状况来看,出生登记完整性方面的不公平现象变得明显。子女年龄、母亲教育程度、婚姻状况、家庭财富状况、居住地、省份和分娩地点是出生登记的重要预测因素。津巴布韦改善出生登记的努力应针对在家出生的儿童、单身母亲和年轻母亲所生的儿童以及母亲贫穷和居住在农村地区的儿童。
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引用次数: 1
Refugee Migration to Europe – Current Challenges and Potentials for Cities and Regions 向欧洲移民的难民——城市和地区目前面临的挑战和潜力
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2022-19
R. Wehrhahn, Zine-Eddine Hathat
“Europe’s migrant crisis: The year that changed a continent” (Evans 2020) is a contribution published in BBC news in August 2020. Whether one should speak of a crisis is a question of perspective. However, it is undisputed that European society has changed in many fi elds by the refugee movements that took place in 2015 and 2016. Since migration processes always materialise in concrete places, the spatiallocal level, in which migrants are mobile and also immobile during a migration and at the (temporary) end of a migration movement, is omnipresent in research processes. Migration without space does not exist, neither in the imaginaries of migration nor in the practice of migration. All levels of space are addressed, from the EU level to the municipal level, for example, when it comes to political-administrative spaces, or neighbourhoods and individual fl ats of a household, when it is more the sociospatial dimension that is addressed. In this respect, all spaces are also present in this Special Issue, with a particular focus on the regional and municipal levels with their concrete places of organisation and materialisation of fl ight. For refugee studies, the municipal level is also of great importance, because fi rst, the basic necessities of life, from food to shelter, must be provided by local institutions. And second, integration processes, even under the restrictive conditions for refugees, e.g. due to the usual work ban in the initial phase, primarily take place at this level. In contrast to other forms of migration, this dependency of refugees on local authorities is signifi cantly greater, as is the challenge for local offi ces to organise the fi nancial and human resources to meet the obligation to secure basic needs. The fact that studies at the small-scale level are always linked to all other levels and thus determine the everyday lives of refugees as well as challenge research concepts is particularly evident in the study by Bolzoni et al. (2022) in this Special Issue. Comparative Population Studies Vol. 47 (2022): 513-532 (Date of release: 21.12.2022)
《欧洲移民危机:改变一个大陆的一年》(Evans 2020)是2020年8月发表在BBC新闻上的一篇文章。人们是否应该谈论危机是一个视角问题。然而,毫无疑问,2015年和2016年发生的难民运动使欧洲社会在许多领域发生了变化。由于移民过程总是在具体的地方发生,因此在研究过程中,移民在移民过程中和移民运动(临时)结束时是流动的,也是不动的,这一空间层次无处不在。无论是在移民的想象中,还是在移民的实践中,都不存在没有空间的移民。从欧盟层面到市政层面,所有层面的空间都得到了解决,例如,当涉及到政治行政空间,或社区和家庭的个人住所时,更多的是社会空间维度。在这方面,所有空间也出现在本期特刊中,特别关注地区和市政层面,以及其具体的组织场所和飞行物化。对于难民研究,市一级也非常重要,因为首先,从食物到住所的基本生活必需品必须由当地机构提供。第二,融合进程,即使是在对难民的限制条件下,例如由于最初阶段通常的工作禁令,也主要在这一级别进行。与其他形式的移民相比,难民对地方当局的依赖要大得多,地方官员在组织财政和人力资源以履行保障基本需求的义务方面也面临着挑战。在Bolzoni等人的研究中,小规模层面的研究总是与所有其他层面联系在一起,从而决定了难民的日常生活,并挑战了研究概念,这一事实在本特刊中尤为明显。(2022)。人口比较研究第47卷(2022):513-532(发布日期:2022年12月21日)
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Population Studies
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